Fluctuations In Effective Population Size Research Articles

Estimating effective population size trajectories from time-series identity-by-descent segments.

Long, identical haplotypes shared between pairs of individuals, known as identity-by-descent (IBD) segments, result from recently shared co-ancestry. Various methods have been developed to utilize IBD sharing for demographic inference in contemporary DNA data. Recent methodological advances have extended the screening for IBD segments to ancient DNA (aDNA) data, making demographic inference based on IBD also possible for aDNA. However, aDNA data typically have varying sampling times, but most demographic inference methods for modern data assume that sampling is contemporaneous. Here, we present Ttne (Time-Transect Ne), which models time-transect sampling to infer recent effective population size trajectories. Using simulations, we show that utilizing IBD sharing in time series increased resolution to infer recent fluctuations in effective population sizes compared with methods that only use contemporaneous samples. To account for IBD detection errors common in empirical analyses, we implemented an approach to estimate and model IBD detection errors. Finally, we applied Ttne to two aDNA time transects: individuals associated with the Copper Age Corded Ware Culture and Medieval England. In both cases, we found evidence of a growing population, a signal consistent with archaeological records.

Effective population size of Culex quinquefasciatus under insecticide-based vector management and following Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas.

Introduction: Culex quinquefasciatus is a mosquito species of significant public health importance due to its ability to transmit multiple pathogens that can cause mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile fever and St. Louis encephalitis. In Harris County, Texas, Cx. quinquefasciatus is a common vector species and is subjected to insecticide-based management by the Harris County Public Health Department. However, insecticide resistance in mosquitoes has increased rapidly worldwide and raises concerns about maintaining the effectiveness of vector control approaches. This concern is highly relevant in Texas, with its humid subtropical climate along the Gulf Coast that provides suitable habitat for Cx. quinquefasciatus and other mosquito species that are known disease vectors. Therefore, there is an urgent and ongoing need to monitor the effectiveness of current vector control programs. Methods: In this study, we evaluated the impact of vector control approaches by estimating the effective population size of Cx. quinquefasciatus in Harris County. We applied Approximate Bayesian Computation to microsatellite data to estimate effective population size. We collected Cx. quinquefasciatus samples from two mosquito control operation areas; 415 and 802, during routine vector monitoring in 2016 and 2017. No county mosquito control operations were applied at area 415 in 2016 and 2017, whereas extensive adulticide spraying operations were in effect at area 802 during the summer of 2016. We collected data for eighteen microsatellite markers for 713 and 723 mosquitoes at eight timepoints from 2016 to 2017 in areas 415 and 802, respectively. We also investigated the impact of Hurricane Harvey's landfall in the Houston area in August of 2017 on Cx. quinquefasciatus population fluctuation. Results: We found that the bottleneck scenario was the most probable historical scenario describing the impact of the winter season at area 415 and area 802, with the highest posterior probability of 0.9167 and 0.4966, respectively. We also detected an expansion event following Hurricane Harvey at area 802, showing a 3.03-fold increase in 2017. Discussion: Although we did not detect significant effects of vector control interventions, we found considerable influences of the winter season and a major hurricane on the effective population size of Cx. quinquefasciatus. The fluctuations in effective population size in both areas showed a significant seasonal pattern. Additionally, the significant population expansion following Hurricane Harvey in 2017 supports the necessity for post-hurricane vector-control interventions.

Demography and linked selection interact to shape the genomic landscape of codistributed woodpeckers during the Ice Age.

The influence of genetic drift on population dynamics during Pleistocene glacial cycles is well understood, but the role of selection in shaping patterns of genomic variation during these events is less explored. We resequenced whole genomes to investigate how demography and natural selection interact to generate the genomic landscapes of Downy and Hairy Woodpecker, species codistributed in previously glaciated North America. First, we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of genomic diversity produced by neutral evolution. Next, we tested (i) whether levels of nucleotide diversity along the genome are correlated with intrinsic genomic properties, such as recombination rate and gene density, and (ii) whether different demographic trajectories impacted the efficacy of selection. Our results revealed cycles of bottleneck and expansion, and genetic structure associated with glacial refugia. Nucleotide diversity varied widely along the genome, but this variation was highly correlated between the species, suggesting the presence of conserved genomic features. In both taxa, nucleotide diversity was positively correlated with recombination rate and negatively correlated with gene density, suggesting that linked selection played a role in reducing diversity. Despite strong fluctuations in effective population size, the maintenance of relatively large populations during glaciations may have facilitated selection. Under these conditions, we found evidence that the individual demographic trajectory of populations modulated linked selection, with purifying selection being more efficient in removing deleterious alleles in large populations. These results highlight that while genome-wide variation reflects the expected signature of demographic change during climatic perturbations, the interaction of multiple processes produces a predictable and highly heterogeneous genomic landscape.

Robust detection of natural selection using a probabilistic model of tree imbalance.

Neutrality tests such as Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's H are standard implements in the population genetics toolbox. One of their most common uses is to scan the genome for signals of natural selection. However, it is well understood that D and H are confounded by other evolutionary forces-in particular, population expansion-that may be unrelated to selection. Because they are not model-based, it is not clear how to deconfound these tests in a principled way. In this article, we derive new likelihood-based methods for detecting natural selection, which are robust to fluctuations in effective population size. At the core of our method is a novel probabilistic model of tree imbalance, which generalizes Kingman's coalescent to allow certain aberrant tree topologies to arise more frequently than is expected under neutrality. We derive a frequency spectrum-based estimator that can be used in place of D, and also extend to the case where genealogies are first estimated. We benchmark our methods on real and simulated data, and provide an open source software implementation.

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling.

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold‐adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold‐adapted species may respond to future climate changes.

Microsatellite markers reveal genetic divergence among wild and cultured populations of Chinese sucker Myxocyprinus asiaticus.

Studies of genetic diversity and genetic population structure are critical for the conservation and management of endangered species. The Chinese sucker Myxocyprinus asiaticus is a vulnerable monotypic species in China, which is at a risk of decline owing to fluctuations in effective population size and other demographic and environmental factors. We screened 11 microsatellite loci in 214 individuals to assess genetic differentiation in both wild and cultured populations. The single extant wild population had a higher number of alleles (13) than the cultured populations (average 7.3). High levels of genetic diversity, expressed as observed and expected heterozygosity (HO = 0.771, HE = 0.748, respectively), were found in both wild and cultured populations. We also report significant differentiation among wild and cultured populations (global FST = 0.023, P < 0.001). Both STRUCTURE analysis and neighbor-joining tree revealed three moderately divergent primary genetic clusters: the wild Yangtze population and the Sichuan population were each identified as an individual cluster, with the remaining populations clustered together. Twenty-two samples collected from the Yangtze River were assigned to the cultured population, demonstrating the efficacy of artificial propagation to avoid drastic reduction in the population size of M. asiaticus. These genetic data support the endangered status of the M. asiaticus and have implications for conservation management planning.

The first whole genome and transcriptome of the cinereous vulture reveals adaptation in the gastric and immune defense systems and possible convergent evolution between the Old and New World vultures.

BackgroundThe cinereous vulture, Aegypius monachus, is the largest bird of prey and plays a key role in the ecosystem by removing carcasses, thus preventing the spread of diseases. Its feeding habits force it to cope with constant exposure to pathogens, making this species an interesting target for discovering functionally selected genetic variants. Furthermore, the presence of two independently evolved vulture groups, Old World and New World vultures, provides a natural experiment in which to investigate convergent evolution due to obligate scavenging.ResultsWe sequenced the genome of a cinereous vulture, and mapped it to the bald eagle reference genome, a close relative with a divergence time of 18 million years. By comparing the cinereous vulture to other avian genomes, we find positively selected genetic variations in this species associated with respiration, likely linked to their ability of immune defense responses and gastric acid secretion, consistent with their ability to digest carcasses. Comparisons between the Old World and New World vulture groups suggest convergent gene evolution. We assemble the cinereous vulture blood transcriptome from a second individual, and annotate genes. Finally, we infer the demographic history of the cinereous vulture which shows marked fluctuations in effective population size during the late Pleistocene.ConclusionsWe present the first genome and transcriptome analyses of the cinereous vulture compared to other avian genomes and transcriptomes, revealing genetic signatures of dietary and environmental adaptations accompanied by possible convergent evolution between the Old World and New World vultures.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13059-015-0780-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evolutionary history inferred from the de novo assembly of a nonmodel organism, the blue-eyed black lemur.

Lemurs, the living primates most distantly related to humans, demonstrate incredible diversity in behaviour, life history patterns and adaptive traits. Although many lemur species are endangered within their native Madagascar, there is no high-quality genome assembly from this taxon, limiting population and conservation genetic studies. One critically endangered lemur is the blue-eyed black lemur Eulemur flavifrons. This species is fixed for blue irises, a convergent trait that evolved at least four times in primates and was subject to positive selection in humans, where 5′ regulatory variation of OCA2 explains most of the brown/blue eye colour differences. We built a de novo genome assembly for E. flavifrons, providing the most complete lemur genome to date, and a high confidence consensus sequence for close sister species E. macaco, the (brown-eyed) black lemur. From diversity and divergence patterns across the genomes, we estimated a recent split time of the two species (160 Kya) and temporal fluctuations in effective population sizes that accord with known environmental changes. By looking for regions of unusually low diversity, we identified potential signals of directional selection in E. flavifrons at MITF, a melanocyte development gene that regulates OCA2 and has previously been associated with variation in human iris colour, as well as at several other genes involved in melanin biosynthesis in mammals. Our study thus illustrates how whole-genome sequencing of a few individuals can illuminate the demographic and selection history of nonmodel species.

Effective number of breeders in relation to census size as management tools for Atlantic salmon conservation in a context of stocked populations

Monitoring short-term fluctuations in effective population sizes (N e) and effective number of breeders (N b), as well as their ratio to adult census population size (N e/N c and N b/N c), provide insight into population demography and inform conservation programs towards limiting long-term loss of evolutionary potential in wild populations. In this study, we monitored short-term variations of N b and N b/N c over three consecutive years for nine Atlantic salmon populations from Quebec, Canada. We documented how these population genetic parameters were influenced by anadromous population size as well as yearly and long-term stocking intensity. Towards this end, 15 microsatellites were used to genotype about 100 one-year-old parrs for each of three consecutive years for nine genetically distinct populations (total n = 2506) from Quebec, Canada. Yearly stocking intensity had a negative effect on N b/N c, possibly as a consequence of a reduced reproductive contribution of stocked relative to wild fish. However, the impact of long-term stocking intensity on N b/N c was not significant, which may indicate relatively weak carry-over effects of stocking on future generations. Also, N b/N c was negatively correlated with N C, suggesting compensatory mechanisms, as previously reported in other salmonids. Overall, this study provides evidence of relatively weak and short-term effect of stocking on N b/N c ratio in Atlantic salmon populations and suggests potential biological mechanisms leading to the significant negative relationship between N b/N c and N c.

Genome-wide insights into the genetic history of human populations.

Although mtDNA and the non-recombining Y chromosome (NRY) studies continue to provide valuable insights into the genetic history of human populations, recent technical, methodological and computational advances and the increasing availability of large-scale, genome-wide data from contemporary human populations around the world promise to reveal new aspects, resolve finer points, and provide a more detailed look at our past demographic history. Genome-wide data are particularly useful for inferring migrations, admixture, and fine structure, as well as for estimating population divergence and admixture times and fluctuations in effective population sizes. In this review, we highlight some of the stories that have emerged from the analyses of genome-wide SNP genotyping data concerning the human history of Southern Africa, India, Oceania, Island South East Asia, Europe and the Americas and comment on possible future study directions. We also discuss advantages and drawbacks of using SNP-arrays, with a particular focus on the ascertainment bias, and ways to circumvent it.

Two Antarctic penguin genomes reveal insights into their evolutionary history and molecular changes related to the Antarctic environment.

BackgroundPenguins are flightless aquatic birds widely distributed in the Southern Hemisphere. The distinctive morphological and physiological features of penguins allow them to live an aquatic life, and some of them have successfully adapted to the hostile environments in Antarctica. To study the phylogenetic and population history of penguins and the molecular basis of their adaptations to Antarctica, we sequenced the genomes of the two Antarctic dwelling penguin species, the Adélie penguin [Pygoscelis adeliae] and emperor penguin [Aptenodytes forsteri].ResultsPhylogenetic dating suggests that early penguins arose ~60 million years ago, coinciding with a period of global warming. Analysis of effective population sizes reveals that the two penguin species experienced population expansions from ~1 million years ago to ~100 thousand years ago, but responded differently to the climatic cooling of the last glacial period. Comparative genomic analyses with other available avian genomes identified molecular changes in genes related to epidermal structure, phototransduction, lipid metabolism, and forelimb morphology.ConclusionsOur sequencing and initial analyses of the first two penguin genomes provide insights into the timing of penguin origin, fluctuations in effective population sizes of the two penguin species over the past 10 million years, and the potential associations between these biological patterns and global climate change. The molecular changes compared with other avian genomes reflect both shared and diverse adaptations of the two penguin species to the Antarctic environment.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2047-217X-3-27) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate Change Influenced Female Population Sizes Through Time Across the Indonesian Archipelago

Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.

Climate Change Influenced Female Population Sizes through Time across the Indonesian Archipelago

Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world’s richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia’s complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15–20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.

Low genetic variability in a mountain rodent, the Tatra vole

Based on ecological information, the distribution range of Tatra vole Microtus tatricus from Central European Carpathian Mountains is distinctly fragmented even at the level of individual mountain ranges. To investigate genetic differentiation between populations, we used 17 microsatellite loci to assess population genetic parameters in 83 Tatra voles from eight localities in Western and one in High Tatra Mountains in Slovakia, including a non-continuous temporal sample spanning from 1978 to 2008. Bayesian analyses of individuals resulted in five clusters, showing congruence between relatedness of sampled individuals and geographical origin. Clustering was supported with F-statistics that showed moderate to pronounced genetic differentiation between clusters, but it was not consistent with isolation by distance analysis. Pairwise comparisons between samples from consecutive years (1997–2008) revealed two cases of genetic differentiation that indicate genetic drift between generations associated with immigration. Recorded fluctuations in effective population size (Ne) might be attributed to the effects of immigration as they coincide with increased genetic differentiation. Estimated values of Ne are below the population size thresholds recommended to minimize inbreeding depression and maintain sufficient evolutionary potential. We observed multiple paternity in the Tatra vole by verifying at least two fathers of one litter.

Wild genetic diversity preservation in a small-sized first generation breeding population of Allanblackia floribunda (Clusiaceae)

Founder group size is of prime importance in tree breeding programs. We determined whether sampling 20-plus trees for breeding in Allanblackia floribunda, a tropical forest tree species that has been recently enrolled in tree improvement program for fruit and seed production, would affect neutral genetic diversity and inbreeding level in both breeding and production populations. Using eight informative microsatellite loci, we: (a) assessed the nuclear genetic diversity of ten natural populations, and of the breeding population in the humid forest zone of Cameroon; (b) investigated temporal effective-size fluctuations in A. floribunda natural populations, with a view to identifying the role of past demographic events in the genetic structure of the studied species; and (c) tested the hypothesis that genetic diversity in a founder group of 20 individuals is not different from that existing in the wild. The eight loci were variable. High levels of genetic diversity (A = 4.96; HE = 0.59) and moderate differentiation (RST = 0.061) were found within and among populations in wild stands. High genetic distances existed between populations \( \left( {{\text{average chord distance}} = 0.{\text{2769}} \pm 0.00{\text{554}}} \right) \). Eight of the ten surveyed populations showed signs of deviation from mutation-drift equilibrium, suggesting Pleistocene population bottlenecks and fluctuations in effective population size. Mantel tests did not reveal any relationships between genetic and geographic distances. A neighbor-joining dendrogram showed a population structure that could be explained by historical factors. The hypothesis tested has been accepted. However, a slight increase in inbreeding was observed in the breeding population.

Contrasting microsatellite variation between subalpine and western larch, two closely related species with different distribution patterns

Subalpine larch (Larix lyallii Parl.) and western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) represent two closely related species with contrasting abundance and distribution patterns in Western North America. Genetic diversity at seven informative microsatellite loci was determined for 19 populations of subalpine larch and nine populations of western larch. Contrasting genetic diversity and patterns of population differentiation were observed between the two species. The overall within-population genetic diversity parameters were lower in subalpine larch (A = 3.2; A(P) = 3.6; H(E) = 0.418) than in western larch (A(P) = 5.51; H(E) = 0.580), a pattern that is likely related to historical or demographic factors. No evidence of interspecific hybridization was observed. Significantly more population differentiation (theta = 0.15; R(ST) = 0.07), consistent with more restricted gene flow, was observed for subalpine larch as compared to western larch (theta = 0.05; R(ST) = 0.04). Under the assumption of an infinite allele mutation model, 12 of the 19 subalpine larch populations showed signs of deviation from the mutation-drift equilibrium, which suggests Holocene population bottlenecks and fluctuations in effective population size for this species. None of the western larch populations deviated significantly from the mutation-drift equilibrium. For both species, Mantel's test revealed a significant positive relationship between geographical and genetic distances indicative of isolation by distance. A similar geographical structure was detected in both species, suggesting at least two genetically distinct glacial populations in each species. The various implications for gene conservation are discussed.

Population Limitation and the Wolves of Isle Royale

Population regulation for gray wolves in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, was examined in 1987–1995 when wolves were in chronic decline following a crash of the population in 1981–1982. Canine parvovirus (CPV-2) was probably influential during the crash, but it disappeared by the late 1980s. High mortality abruptly ceased after 1988, but low recruitment in the absence of disease and obvious shortage of food prevented recovery of the wolf population. In 1983–1995, with a comparable number of moose ≥10 years old as potential prey, wolves were only half as numerous as in 1959–1980. A simulation of annual fluctuations in effective population size ( N e ) for wolves on Isle Royale suggests that their genetic heterozygosity has declined ca. 13% with each generation and ca. 80% in the 50-year history of this population. Inbreeding depression and stochastic demographic variation both remain possible explanations for recent low recruitment.