RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Research Articles

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Jiangsu’s Foreign Trade

The acceleration of globalization makes the whole world economy full of uncertainty Development has strongly promoted the growth of global trade, on the other hand, the financial crisis of globalization will have a more profound impact on every economy, thus disrupting the balance of the global economy. GARCH model is used to calculate the volatility of exchange rate, and the empirical part analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the export trade of Jiangsu Province. A total of 70 periods of monthly data from 2018 to 2023 are used, including two periods of exchange rate reform and epidemic that have a great impact on RMB exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical results show that, the change of exchange rate has a significant impact on the import and export trade volume of Jiangsu Province, and the exchange rate fluctuation has a significant negative impact on the export trade scale of Jiangsu province, which is greater than the import; Finally, for the foreign trade industry of Jiangsu province how to deal with the volatility of RMB exchange rate, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of government and enterprises respectively.

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Performance of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions of High-Tech Enterprises: A Moderated Mediation Model Based on Innovation Input

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) serve as a crucial pathway for the international development of high-tech enterprises. However, currency exchange and foreign exchange transactions are frequent occurrences during cross-border M&A processes, making exchange rate fluctuations significantly influential on the success rate and performance of such endeavors. By analyzing the impact of exchange rate volatility on high-tech enterprises, this study introduces innovation input as a moderating mediating variable. The findings reveal that greater exchange rate fluctuations lead to poorer M&A performance. Moreover, innovation input acts as a mediating variable in the relationship between exchange rate volatility and M&A performance. The study contributes to strategic insights for the international M&A activities of enterprises.

Analysing RMB exchange rate fluctuations based on multiple perspectives

Analysing RMB exchange rate fluctuations based on multiple perspectives

RMB RESILIENCE STRATEGIES TO DRIVE BUSINESS PERFORMANCE AMID THE GLOBAL CRISIS

The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the strategic decisions of Chinese companies in the context of their export activity in the foreign market. The research methodology is based on integrated annual customs data for the period 2014–2021 and econometric analysis. The upward fluctuations in the level of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB encourage companies to withdraw from foreign markets and lead to a significant slowdown in companies’ export market entry. At the same time, companies with foreign capital are able to cope with currency risks to a much greater extent than companies with state and private participation. The analysis of company characteristics based on the principle of differentiation shows that company performance, profit volume, business scale, and export experience of a company can lead to a delay in the favorable effect of RMB appreciation for companies leaving export markets. This article provides valuable guidance for companies on strategies to avoid currency risks and make effective management decisions in the context of exports.

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China's Air Conditioning Industry

Based on the background of China's current trade with other countries is becoming increasingly close, the study of exchange rate stability on the impact of China's trade with other countries to promote China's economic stability has a certain theoretical significance. In the study of air conditioning industry import and export trade factors affecting the attention of the national exchange rate is very important, in the two countries trade relations, the exchange rate is a measure of the two countries to buy, sell the price of the product of the vital factors, exchange rate changes for the enterprise will bring a certain degree of impact, stabilization of the exchange rate for the promotion of our country and the trade of other countries in the long term and good cooperation has important practical significance. The air-conditioning manufacturing industry is a very representative research object. The cost-sensitive home appliance industry is a labor-intensive industry, which provides a huge number of jobs for China and creates a huge amount of foreign exchange income. At the same time, the home appliance industry, as a representative of China's manufacturing industry, faces industrial upgrading pressure and is in the maturity of a fully competitive industry, which has been severely impacted by exchange rate changes. It is of great significance to correctly measure and analyze the foreign exchange risk exposure of the import and export of the air-conditioning industry and its influencing factors. From a micro point of view, enterprises can be based on foreign exchange risk exposure situation targeted adjustment of financial strategies, strategies and management methods. From a macro point of view, the country can be based on the overall foreign exchange risk exposure characteristics of home appliances to formulate the correct macroeconomic policy.

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis

Recently, the RMB exchange rate has experienced significant fluctuations. On May 13th, the spot exchange rate of onshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 6.8, depreciating by over 1000 basis points compared to the opening rate of 6.6985 on May 9th. Against this backdrop, this paper follows the research paradigm of Zhang Weifu (2008) to empirically examine the impact of RMB real exchange rate changes on Chinese enterprises' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Drawing on OFDI research frameworks for developed and developing countries, it first reviews theories of internal forces, external forces, and environmental support for China's OFDI, and discusses real exchange rate impacts on OFDI through the environmental support channel. A standardized microeconomic model is developed to show, under certain assumptions, that real exchange rates affect OFDI via export channels. An empirical model then tests these effects. Finally, policy recommendations are provided based on the theoretical and empirical results.

Study on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China-Japan-Korea Commodity Trade

With the development of economic globalization, the connection between countries has been continuously strengthened. The Chinese government is currently implementing a series of policies to adjust the import and export structure, cultivate the international competitiveness of import and export enterprises, and promote the steady growth of foreign trade.
 This paper investigates the relationship between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and commodity trade between China, Japan and South Korea through theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, the paper sorts out the mechanism of exchange rate changes affecting trade, and then discusses the trade process and development prospects of China and Japan and South Korea. The empirical analysis is based on the PLSR partial least squares model to investigate the relationship between exchange rate changes and China-Japan-Korea merchandise trade. The empirical results show that GDP has a low impact on the trade between Japan and Korea and China, and in contrast, for every 1% increase in the real exchange rate, the import and export volume decreases by 0.4% and 0.14%, respectively, with a positive contribution relationship. That is, the devaluation of the RMB will boost the import and export commodity trade between China, Japan and Korea. Finally, for the impact of RMB volatility on trade, the author gives appropriate advice to local governments.

Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB on China’s Value Adding in Global Value Chains

The global value chain is a production and supply network that crosses national borders and connects businesses, institutions, and individuals from different countries to create value and produce goods and services. China is an important part of the global value chain, and its position in it has gradually improved. There is a close relationship between the global value chain and currency exchange rates. Studying the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China’s added value of global value chains is of great significance for a deeper understanding of China’s internationalization process and competitiveness in the global value chain. Based on the global value chain in trade, a regression analysis is conducted on the added value of China in the global value chain. The real effective exchange rate of RMB is used as the interpretation variable, and foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, and consumer price index are included as the control variables in the analysis. The results show that the rise of China’s real effective exchange rate significantly influences the added value in the global value chain even in the global financial crisis of 2008 and the appreciation of the exchange rate improves the production efficiency of China’s processing and manufacturing export companies.

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations under the Covid-19—Taking the RMB-USD Exchange Rate as an Example

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations under the Covid-19—Taking the RMB-USD Exchange Rate as an Example

China–US economic and trade relations, trade news, and short‐term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate

AbstractThe trade war between the US and China affects the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. We collect news on China–US trade policies and talks from January 2017 to July 2020. Results show that China–US dialogue and tariff imposition have the greatest impact on the percentage of RMB appreciation and depreciation. Additionally, tariff relaxation and increasing enterprise restrictions can cause a sharp appreciation and depreciation. “Policies” events and trade news from the US influence RMB fluctuations the most significantly. Finally, positive events cannot significantly cause RMB appreciation, but negative events can significantly cause RMB devaluation.

Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Change on Import and Export Trade of Agricultural Products: An Analysis of External Correction Factors

This paper selects the RMB exchange rate as the explanatory variable, analyzes the main elements affecting the agricultural exports and imports, and analyzes the corrective effect of external factors on its influence. Using the WTO caliber, the scope of agricultural products will be defined as Chapter 1 - 24 classified by HS code, and the annual data from 2005 to 2020 will be selected to study the relationship between various variables. This paper shows that the negative influences of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural exports is more than the negative effects on imports due to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, which will increase China's agricultural import and export trade deficit. At the same time, this paper also puts forward some suggestions on agricultural products to resist the impact of exchange rate and improve their own industrial structure.

Research on the correlation between offshore and onshore RMB spot exchange rates based on VAR-ECM model

This paper selects the daily data of offshore and onshore RMB spot exchange rates from 2012 to 2022 to establish a first-order VAR model to study the correlation between offshore and onshore RMB spot exchange rates. On this basis, an ECM model is established to further analyze the error correction term of the previous period and the impact of the fluctuation of the other party in the same period.Through empirical research, it is found that there is a cointegration relationship between the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB and onshore RMB and they are Granger causality. On the whole,there is a positive relationship between them. Specifically, the offshore and onshore RMB spot exchange rates have a certain time lag in the transmission of market information, which will lead to the emergence of arbitrage opportunities. Through the analysis of variance decomposition and error correction model results, it is found that the impact of the onshore RMB market on the offshore RMB spot exchange rate fluctuation is close to 50%, while the offshore impact on the onshore RMB exchange rate fluctuation is less than 30%, indicating that the onshore RMB is currently in the dominant positionthe of exchange rate influence mechanism.Based on this conclusion, it is suggested that government pay attention to the impact of onshore RMB market, continuously improve the order of the onshore RMB market, promote the healthy development of offshore and onshore RMB markets, thus promoting the internationalization of the RMB.

Analysis of Early Warning of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Value at Risk Measurement Based on Deep Learning

Analysis of Early Warning of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Value at Risk Measurement Based on Deep Learning

The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Import and Export Trade of Agricultural Products in Jiangxi Province

With the continuous growth of China's economy and the influence of external factors in accelerating the marketization process of RMB under the overall environment, the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar has been rising year by year. Whether long-term or short-term exchange rate fluctuations will have a huge impact on the trade of many industries, and the import and export trade of agricultural products is also under the positive or negative impact of the RMB exchange rate changes. As the import and export trade of agricultural products is related to people's livelihood, social stability and a series of major issues, it is more necessary to conduct in-depth research on this issue with the support of theory. Taking the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate as independent variable and the import and export volume of agricultural products in Jiangxi province as dependent variable, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the two. Therefore, based on the combination of previous scholars research literature, innovation in Jiangxi province as the research object, based on the actual agricultural products import and export data in Jiangxi province, using VAR model on the RMB exchange rate changes and import and export of agricultural products between the dynamic effects of the empirical analysis, and according to the empirical results obtained import and export of agricultural products depends on their own ascension in Jiangxi province.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Asymmetric Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the RMB Exchange Rate

In this paper, we assume that the COVID-19 pandemic exerts a time-varying asymmetric impact on the RMB exchange rate. Based on the Taylor rule model, we examine the RMB exchange rate fluctuations around the outbreak of COVID-19. We find that the RMB rate rose steadily before the outbreak but fluctuated during the pandemic. This shows that the pandemic had a transient time-varying impact on the RMB exchange rate.

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China's Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis of the Data after the 2015 New Exchange Reform in China

In this paper we investigate the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the A-share market after China's 2015 new exchange rate reform. The data selected for the exchange rate of the Shanghai Composite Index and the USD against RMB is from August 11, 2015 to August 11, 2016. After the test of smoothness, we adapt the econometric methods such as Granger causality test, VAR model test, cointegration test, multivariate regression analysis and impulse response analysis to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the A-share market Conduction mechanism.

An Empirical Study of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Sino-US Trade

In recent years, the US has urged the yuan to appreciate in order to resolve its trade deficit with China. This article systematically analyzes the basic situation of the RMB exchange rate changes and the development of Sino-US import and export trade in the past 20 years, and uses Eviews to construct a measurement model to confirm that the impact of the RMB exchange rate on Sino-US trade is not as good as the economic development of the importing country The impact is significant, and the intention of the United States to improve the trade deficit by prompting the appreciation of the renminbi is ineffective. It also puts forward the policy recommendations that attach importance to the impact of excessive US consumption on Sino-US trade volume. The US should liberalize strict controls on China’s exports, further optimize the product structure of China’s imports and exports, and establish exchange rate risk prevention mechanisms.

Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Guangdong’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

For a long time, China’s balance of payment has been in a “double surplus” situation which may easily cause imbalance in the country’s economy, so we must keep expanding outward foreign direct investment to ease domestic inflations. Guangdong has accelerated its outward foreign direct investment significantly nowadays. Through descriptive statistics and measurement research, it is found that Guangdong’s outward foreign direct investment has been growing year after year, and the modes are diversified, however, the overall scale is still small. The investment regions are not balanced, and the investment mainly focuses on low-end industries. The relations between outward foreign direct investment and the RMB exchange rate show positive correlation. Based on the findings, it is suggested that we should seize RMB appreciation opportunity to expand the scale of our investment, and optimize the investment structures and investment regions.

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Enterprises’ Export Decisions—From the Perspective of Heterogeneity

This paper empirically discusses the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on enterprises’ export decisions by using the annual data of the database of China’s industrial enterprises and the database of China’s customs merged according to the hs6-digit code from 2000 to 2007. The study found that: 1) the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate will significantly increase the probability of enterprises exiting export markets and reduce the probability of enterprises entering export markets; 2) compared with state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, foreign-owned enterprises have stronger ability to fight against exchange rate risks, and enterprises in eastern China are more sensitive to exchange rate fluctuation; 3) based on the analysis of heterogeneity of enterprise characteristics, it is found that such factors as enterprise productivity, enterprise profit margin, enterprise size and enterprise export experience can reduce the positive impact of RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation on enterprises exiting from export markets. This paper provides some useful advice for enterprises to avoid exchange rate risks and make better export decisions.

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Expectation on China's Foreign Direct Investment

In 2005, after the change of exchange rate, the expectation of upward expectation was deepened because of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. For international companies, on a country's currency exchange rate volatility trend is expected to change its subjective leading on the investment strategy of the country, is expected to exchange rate in the adjustment of China's FDI entry with a total layout of the industry leading role is allow all doubt. China is in a special phase of economic growth and transformation, and the policy of improving the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries and service industries needs the help of a large number of foreign capital. Therefore, it is a significant time to explore the adjustment principle of the exchange rate expectation change to the domestic FDI entry quantity at this time.