Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Change on Import and Export Trade of Agricultural Products: An Analysis of External Correction Factors

Abstract

This paper selects the RMB exchange rate as the explanatory variable, analyzes the main elements affecting the agricultural exports and imports, and analyzes the corrective effect of external factors on its influence. Using the WTO caliber, the scope of agricultural products will be defined as Chapter 1 - 24 classified by HS code, and the annual data from 2005 to 2020 will be selected to study the relationship between various variables. This paper shows that the negative influences of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural exports is more than the negative effects on imports due to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, which will increase China's agricultural import and export trade deficit. At the same time, this paper also puts forward some suggestions on agricultural products to resist the impact of exchange rate and improve their own industrial structure.