Exchange Rate Fluctuations Research Articles

The Impact of Exchange Rates on Macroeconomic Factors in Lao PDR from 2012-2021

The purpose of the analysis of the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic factors of Lao PDR from 2012-2022 aims to (1) analyze the fluctuation of macroeconomic factors and exchange rate of Kip/Dollar and Kip/Baht in the Lao PDR from 2012-2021 and (2) the impact of the exchange rate on the macroeconomic factors of the Lao PDR from 2012-2021. By bringing the collected data to summarize, interpret, consider, select and analyze by using descriptive statistical model and inferential statistics to find a value in percentage, parameter value of regression equation with OLS through E-view 12. The analysis results found that: the exchange rate of Kip/Dollar has effect on the Gross National Income (GNI) of the Lao PDR in the same direction relationship, if the exchange rate changes and increases, it means that the kip of Lao PDR is weak. The country will have the ability to compete in terms of price or make the income from exports that change the value of the kip increase and have a continuous effect on the wages of labor in businesses related to exports, investment and the purchasing power of consumers through income and the economic growth increases, lead to export and investment increase. That will result in the increase of the Gross National Income (GNI) of the Lao PDR. The Consumer Price Index of Lao PDR is continuously increasing, if the Dollar /Kip exchange rate increase by 1 US dollar (USD), it will cause the consumer price index (CPI) of Lao PDR to increase by 1.67% in US dollar (USD). For the exchange rate and export relationship of Lao PDR, it shows that if the exchange rate of Dollar/Kip increase by 1 US dollar (USD), it will result in the export value (EX) of Lao PDR increase by 11.15% US dollar (USD). In other side, the Thai/Kip Baht exchange rate is unable to explain the Gross National Income (GNI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Lao PDR's exports clearly, which means that there is no relationship among them, or in other words, the Thai Baht exchange rate does not affect the macroeconomic factors in the model of this research.

The Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation on Revenue Generation in the Oil Dependent Economy: Nigeria

This study explores the dynamic relationship between crude oil price volatility and revenue generation in Nigeria over a 41-year period from 1981 to 2021. It encompasses an analysis of key variables, including total revenue (REV), oil price (OPV), oil revenue (ORV), non-oil revenue (NRV), and exchange rate (EXCHR). The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model to examine the long-term and short-term impacts of oil price volatility on revenue generation. This study reveals that crude oil price volatility (OPV) failed to exert strong impact on total revenue (REV) in Nigeria in the distance period. Oil revenue (ORV) exhibits a strong and positive influence on total revenue, highlighting its pivotal role in revenue generation. Non-oil revenue (NRV) also significantly contributes to total revenue, emphasizing the importance of diversifying revenue sources. Exchange rate (EXCHR) fluctuations do not significantly predict changes in total revenue. Based on the findings, policy recommendations include diversifying revenue sources, enhancing non-oil revenue collection, effective oil revenue management, promoting economic diversification, strengthening tax infrastructure, and adopting prudent budgeting practices.

Direct Mail or Bonded Warehouse? Logistics Mode Selection in Cross-Border E-Commerce under Exchange Rate Risk

The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has enabled more suppliers to expand into overseas markets, meeting increasingly diverse consumer demands. Selecting an effective logistics mode is a crucial issue for suppliers, yet uncertainty in demand and exchange rate fluctuations make this problem challenging. This paper considers a supply chain consisting of a supplier and a CBEC platform. Using a distributionally robust optimization approach, we provide optimal overseas warehousing strategies and logistics mode selection for suppliers, given partial distribution information of market demand and exchange rate, such as means, variances, and covariances. It is found that when demand and exchange rate fluctuations are small, the supplier chooses the bonded warehouse logistics mode to reduce costs. Conversely, when demand and exchange rate fluctuations increase, the supplier opts for the direct mail mode to respond flexibly to market risk. The correlation between exchange rate and demand also affects the choice of logistics mode. Specifically, with low correlation, the preference is for the bonded warehouse mode, whereas high correlation leads suppliers to choose the direct mail mode. In addition, the impact of demand and exchange rate fluctuations on suppliers’ overseas warehousing volumes depends on the product’s profit margin. These findings provide guidance for the selection of CBEC logistics under exchange rate risk.

A Risk Management Strategy under Transfer Pricing for Multi-National Supply Chain along the Belt and Road Initiative

The “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) drives international trade more and more frequently, making exchange rates and taxes unavoidable issues for multi-national companies. Thus, exchange risk uncertainty and tax saving planning should be considered in the operational decisions of a multi-national supply chain. This paper constructs a Stackelberg game model with four composite modes to explore the risk-taking and hedging strategy of retailers with reference-dependent psychology. The results show that: (1) exchange rate risk is transmitted through all subjects under the cost-plus transfer pricing strategy, while it is transmitted only between headquarters and retailers under the resale-price transfer pricing strategy. (2) No matter which subject bears the exchange rate risk, the motivation is stronger under the resale-price transfer pricing strategy. (3) The effect of futures hedging exchange rate risk is influenced by retailer reference-dependent psychology. When the reference dependence coefficient is low, and the risk of positive exchange rate fluctuations is too high, the retailer chooses to hedge its exchange rate risk. At this time, the transfer pricing strategy should shift to cost-plus, and the exchange rate fluctuation range that each entity can afford is larger than before hedging.

Global Value Chain Participation and Firms' Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

AbstractGreater participation in global value chains (GVCs) has highlighted the impact of exchange rate shocks on international trade. This paper examines how such participation influences firms' responses to exchange rate movements, focusing on the relationship between firms' pricing and value‐added in exports. This study, using detailed Chinese firm‐level data, demonstrates that firms with a high degree of GVC participation reacted to currency appreciation by lowering their export prices more substantially and reducing their export volumes less. This is mainly attributable to the “cost‐hedging effect” within the marginal cost channel and the “pricing inhibition effect” within the markup channel. By categorizing export firms by trade models and product types, this study further demonstrates that processing trade firms at the low end of the value chain and those with low product differentiation were more inclined to absorb exchange rate shocks. This study adds to the existing theoretical framework and provides strong evidence for China in deepening GVC integration and supporting the development of high‐quality export firms.

EXCHANGE RATES AND STOCK MARKET DYNAMICS: ISLAMIC VERSUS CONVENTIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

This study investigates the changes and persistence in dynamic connectedness between stock market performance and exchange rate fluctuations, comparing conventional and Islamic financial systems. With an eye on a global financial landscape characterized by the integration of capital markets and the adoption of floating exchange rate regimes, it examines the effects of exchange rate variations on the dynamics of the stock market in nine different countries - the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Canada, China, India, Korea, and South Africa. The study employs daily data spanning from November 2015 to July 2023 and uses a comprehensive analysis of three-step methodology, including nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests, asymmetric slope Conditional Autoregressive Valueat-Risk (CAViaR), and Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) Connectedness measure. Our results underline the asymmetric impact of exchange rate fluctuations on stock markets and highlights the distinctive characteristics of Islamic financial markets. Comparing Islamic and conventional stock markets in the context of exchange rate fluctuations, this study not only serves to fill a gap in the existing literature but also emphasizes the significance of currency exchange rate swings for global investors, policymakers, and practitioners trying to understand the intricacies of global financial markets.

Pembatalan Putusan Badan Arbitrase Nasional Indonesia Berdasarkan Pasal 70 Undang-Undang Nomor 30 Tahun 1999 tentang Arbitrase dan Alternatif Penyelesaian Sengketa Ditinjau dari Sifat Final dan Mengikat: Studi Kasus Putusan Nomor: 104 B/Pdt.Sus-Arbt/2019

The application of the provisions of Article 70 of Law Number 30 of 1999 has resulted in inconsistent interpretations and no firm rules. On the other hand, BANI's decision is final and binding. However, it is not uncommon for parties who are dissatisfied with the arbitration award to file a lawsuit to annul the BANI decision to the district court. This legal research is classified as normative juridical research which aims to examine legal certainty based on literature studies (documents or library research), case approaches, and applicable positive law. The results of this thesis research show that the cancellation of BANI's decision through Decision Number: 104 B/Pdt.Sus-Arbt/2019 was based on allegations that it contained elements contained in Article 70 of Law Number 30 of 1999, namely that after BANI's decision was taken, documents were found that decisive, which was deliberately hidden by Shimizu Corporation and PT. Hutama Karya. Thus, the annulment of the BANI decision Number 854/V/ARBBANI/2016, clearly and clearly includes the reasons for the cancellation of the arbitration award and the judge's considerations regarding the annulment of the BANI Decision through Decision Number: 104 B/Pdt.Sus-Arbt/2019, of the opinion that the claim proposed by Shimizu Corporation and PT. Hutama Karya to BANI, it was proven that there were several documents that were not submitted by Shimizu Corporation and PT. Hutama Karya, however, if the document is submitted, BANI's decision will be different or at least it will not grant the demands of Shimizu Corporation and PT. Hutama Karya in whole or in part, in this case, includes claims regarding fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate.

Study on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Process of RMB Internationalization

Study on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Process of RMB Internationalization

분포동학을 통한 중국 위안화 환율의 안정성 및 결정요인 분석

This study is focused on the stability and determinants of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the U.S. dollar exchange rate movement. To this end, a distribution dynamics model is introduced. We establish the non-linearity of the Generalized normal (GEN) distribution and estimate the impact of macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, on exchange rate dynamic conditional probability density functions (PDFs). As the distribution allows for fluctuations in the exchange rate, the conditional probability density function (PDF) reveals a time-varying multimodality (i.e., unimodality and bimodality), based on the change in the shape parameters of the generalized normal (GEN) distribution. A unimodal distribution corresponds to a stable equilibrium for exchange rate movement. In contrast, a bimodal distribution contains an unstable equilibrium. Moreover, the bimodality may offer insights into the exchange rate fluctuations resulting from foreign exchange crises or global financial crises. In contrast with previous research on the linearity between macroeconomic variables and exchange rate movements, this study presents novel evidence on the dynamic non-linearity distribution of CNY exchange rate movements and their determinants. Our empirical analysis results will serve as a reference point for macroeconomic policymakers.

Study on the Correlation Between Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Global Economy Based on Macroeconomic Models

Study on the Correlation Between Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Global Economy Based on Macroeconomic Models

The Impact of Multi-Currency System On Public Sector Procurement Performance in Zimbabwe

The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of multi-currency system on public sector procurement performance in Zimbabwe using evidence from government ministries of agriculture, defence and local government. In line with the positivism philosophical framework the study used correlational research design, deductive research approach, quantitative research methodology and a structured questionnaire to collect primary data from 171 participants comprising of procurement and finance officers in the three ministries. The study confirmed a statistically significant impact of multi-currency system on public sector procurement performance. All multi-currency system dimensions that include exchange rate fluctuations, foreign currency shortage and multiple currency usage induced inflation were found to significant positive predictors of both procurement cost and supplier price. Exchange rate fluctuations were confirmed to have the greatest positive impact on both procurement cost and supplier price in the public sector.

The Managerial Economics Implications Of Rupiah Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Investment And Corporate Growth

The managerial economics implications of Rupiah exchange rate fluctuations on investment and corporate growth are critical considerations for businesses operating in Indonesia's volatile economic environment. This study, conducted through an extensive literature review, explores the multifaceted impacts of exchange rate volatility on corporate decision-making and performance. Key findings indicate that fluctuations in the Rupiah increase investment risks and uncertainties, adversely affecting private sector investment and corporate growth. The review highlights that exchange rate volatility escalates production costs and diminishes profit margins, thereby impeding business expansion and competitive positioning in international markets. From a managerial perspective, effective risk management strategies such as hedging and portfolio diversification are essential for mitigating exchange rate risks. Additionally, efficient resource management and operational efficiency are pivotal in cushioning the adverse effects of currency fluctuations. The study underscores the importance of dynamic pricing strategies and financial instruments in stabilizing cash flows and sustaining growth amidst economic turbulence. This paper contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of exchange rate impacts on managerial decisions and provides actionable insights for businesses to navigate currency volatility. Future research should focus on empirical analyses to validate the findings and explore case studies across various sectors to further elucidate the nuances of managing exchange rate risks in different business contexts.

The Mismatch Between Macroeconomic Stability and Declining Stock Performance of Digital Banks in Indonesia: An Empirical Study of 2022-2023

This study examines the mismatch between macroeconomic stability and the stock performance of digital banks in Indonesia over the period 2022-2023. The results of the analysis show that the USD/IDR exchange rate and Bank Indonesia interest rate have a significant negative effect on stock prices, while inflation shows no significant effect. These findings suggest that despite stable macroeconomic conditions, the share prices of digital banks experienced a significant decline, indicating market inefficiencies. This study makes a theoretical contribution by revealing the role of exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations in influencing the stock performance of digital banks in emerging markets. In conclusion, factors such as investor sentiment, market behavior, and the influence of digital financial technology need to be taken into account in developing strategies to support the stability and growth of the digital banking sector in Indonesia. The results of this study are important for policymakers, regulators, and market participants in dealing with the challenges faced by the digital banking sector in Indonesia. Keywords Digital banking, macroeconomic stability, stock performance, market inefficiency.

Exploring the Spillover effects of tail risk fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate—The time-frequency and quantile connectivity perspective

This study constructs spillover indices from a volatility spillover network perspective using the Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model, capturing the RMB exchange rate's tail risk and time-frequency effects across varying shock sizes. Empirical results show that the QVAR-based spillover index more effectively captures the tail risk spillover effects across different quantiles. In the time domain, spillovers between RMB exchange rates are dynamic and particularly sensitive to extreme contingencies. In the frequency domain, RMB exchange rates demonstrate significant spillovers, primarily at low frequencies. During extreme upward events, dynamic observations show high-frequency spillovers surpassing low-frequency ones as dominant drivers in the tail spillovers of the RMB exchange rate. Additionally, the analysis of tail dependence indicators indicates a strong asymmetry in RMB exchange rate correlations, emphasizing market participants' heightened sensitivity to unfavorable shocks. These findings can serve as a reference for policymakers to strengthen risk management of the RMB exchange rate.

LEST: Large language models and spatio-temporal data analysis for enhanced Sino-US exchange rate forecasting

Exchange rate forecasting has a significant impact on a country’s balance of international payments, financial security and stability. Under the context of Sino-US trade war, a series of news events have happened thus increasing the abnormal fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, and these fluctuations have made it more difficult to forecast the exchange rate. The analysis of news events’ impact on exchange rate fluctuations focused on assigning emotional labels to different economic news and political events by building an emotional lexicon. However, the previous method of using an offline emotional lexicon to analyze events could not be updated promptly making it difficult to better exploit implicit information of news events. Also, the offline emotional lexicon requires manual annotation of events which is unavoidable and subjective and therefore influences the sentiment analysis of the event. Therefore, we build a fusion forecasting framework of spatio-temporal and emotional information for accurate, real-time exchange rate forecasting. First, in the preprocessing phase, we leveraged the situational learning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically ChatGPT, combined with prompt engineering to enable ChatGPT to provide real-time, online, and precise automated sentiment analyses of Sino-US trade events. Second, we proposed the SG-TL fusion model, which integrates Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models in the feature processing approach to accurately extract exchange rate features in spatial and temporal dimensions. We also employed Transformer and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models in the forecasting phase to forecast the Sino-US exchange rates. Finally, Experiment results demonstrate that the exchange rate forecasting framework LEST can accurately capture the exchange rate fluctuations during the period of Sino-US trade war. Furthermore, its forecasting performance is more precise, efficient, and stable than existing works. The source code of our developed method is publicly available at https://gitee.com/andyham_andy.ham/lest-forecasting-framework.

The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination for South Africa

The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. This study used the monetary model of exchange rate determination developed in the 1970s. The study used the TAR to estimate the exchange change rate behaviour in response to variations in monetary variables. We found that the exchange rates respond to the interest rate differential, consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. Furthermore, in all the regimes, the sizes of coefficients are different, which shows that the exchange rate behaviour is non-linear (asymmetric). While the impact of the interest rate differential in regime 1 and 2 leads to exchange rates appreciating although in regime 2 the results are insignificant, this occurs when the exchange rates fluctuate below 0.87 percentage points. In regime 3, on average, a marginal increase in interest rate deferential leads to an exchange rate depreciation. In some instances, the exchange rates respond to the monetary variables’ changes in line with the predictions of the monetary theory of exchange rate determination. An increase in interest rates in some instances leads to an improvement in the value of the exchange rate. However, the conditions are not constant—they vary depending on the state of exchange rate fluctuation.

Research on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China's Export Trade

The RMB exchange rate's fluctuation has become a critical element in China's export trade, due to the country's rapid economic growth and the quickening of global economic globalization. The potential of this exchange rate alteration to affect the cost of exports and the international market's competitiveness renders it one of the most influential regulatory forces in the export trade sector. To explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's export trade, a linear regression model was constructed, based on panel data from 2001 to 2022 in 31 provinces (regions, cities) of China.A positive relationship between the real effective exchange rate index of RMB and China's total exports is evidenced by the results, and an appreciation of RMB can result in a rise in China's total exports. Therefore, the countermeasures and suggestions to stabilize exchange rate expectation, promote RMB internationalization and improve commodity competitiveness are put forward for reference.

Does the S-curve demonstrate an asymmetrical response to fluctuations in exchange rates?

PurposeThis study aims to examine the asymmetric S-curve between the trade balances of Pakistan and China at the commodity level using disaggregated data.Design/methodology/approachThis study focuses on Pakistan and China bilateral trade based on commodity-level data. This study delves into the S-curve phenomena by examining time series data from 1980 to 2023 across 32 three-digit industries/commodities.FindingsThe findings show significant evidence in favor of the “asymmetric S-curve” in 27 out of the 32 industries studied. This study confirms that the devaluation of home currency is not a viable solution always to improve trade balance.Research limitations/implicationsThis study considers 32 three-digit industries limiting the generalizability of findings. Due to data unavailability, the authors fail to consider other industries. In the absence of quarterly data on industry-level trade between Pakistan and China, annual data from 1980 to 2023 were used in generating the cross-correlation functions. Previous literature frequently resorted to the general consumer price index with its inherent aggregation issues, whereas this study has opted for commodity price indices to overcome the shortcomings in the estimation of S-curves at the commodity level.Practical implicationsThe findings have practical relevance in guiding policy decisions regarding commodity trade, whereas the industry-wise analysis enriches the understanding of the short-term effects of currency depreciation on trade balance dynamics.Originality/valueThe S-curve hypothesis predicts a negative cross-correlation between a country's current exchange rate and its past trade balance and a positive cross-correlation between the current exchange rate and its future trade balance. Previous empirical S-curve studies had the limitation of assuming symmetry in cross-correlation with both current and future trade balance values.

The Impact of Monetary Policy in Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in the Iraqi Economy for The Period (1990 - 2023) an Econometric Study

The exchange rate is a monetary economic indicator that expresses a country's economic performance. The exchange rate is the basic foundation on which the economies of any country in the world are built, whether developed or developing. As a result, most governments seek to implement regulations that ensure the currency exchange rate remains stable. To avoid the radical changes that currencies will endure during another period. The exchange rate also plays a prominent role in monetary policy, due to its use as an intermediate target, or as a tool, or simply as an indicator of the competitiveness of countries through its impact on components of economic growth such as investment, the degree of economic openness, the inflation rate, the narrow money supply, and the volume of exports. And the volume of imports, and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to try to identify the nature of the exchange rate. As a result, in the first section, we discussed the concept of monetary policy, its most important tools, its most important goals, the exchange rate, and Iraq’s experience in the field of exchange during the period (1990-2023). While the second section was devoted to measuring the impact of monetary policy in achieving stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using the vector model. correcting the mistake. The study concluded with some recommendations to reduce exchange rate fluctuations.

Pegged exchange rate regime and its impact on inflation in BRICS nations: Country-wise evidence

During the 1990s and 2000s, many developing nations accepted fixed exchange rate regimes to sustain price stability. By pegging their currencies to an anchor currency (i.e. US dollar), developing countries could bring credibility and confidence into their economies. The study tries to analyse the impact of the pegged exchange rate regime on inflation in BRICS countries for the period spanning from 2003 to 2022. The result points to the loss of monetary policy autonomy due to the ‘impossible trinity’ coming into play with a steady increase in capital inflows. The country’s large trade surpluses and extensive trade relationships may buffer the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices, as changes in the exchange rate may be absorbed by changes in trade volumes or pricing strategies. Other factors like demographic trends or government interventions in markets could overshadow the influence of the exchange rate regime on inflation. The impact of changes in the exchange rate regimes on inflation may operate with lags, meaning that any effects may not be immediately observable in the data. The analysis in this study proposes that exchange rate regimes choice and money supply influence the inflation dynamics in the BRICS countries. It merely reflects the success of the central bank in neutralizing its very effort of maintaining the pegged rate, which gives rise to inflationary growth of the money supply.