Floods In Iran Research Articles

Assessment of machine learning algorithms and new hybrid multi-criteria analysis for flood hazard and mapping.

Floods in Iran cause a lot of damage in different places every year. The 2019 floods of the Gorgan and Atrak rivers basins in the north of Iran were one of the most destructive events in this country. Therefore, investigating the flood hazard of these areas is very necessary to manage probable future floods. For this purpose, in the present study, the capability of Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms was investigated in combination with Sentinel series and Landsat-8 images to prepare the 2019 flood map. Then, the flood hazard map of these areas was prepared using the new hybrid Fuzzy Best Worse Model-Weighted Multi-Criteria Analysis (FBWM-WMCA) model. According to the results of the FBWM-WMCA model, 38.58%, 50.18%, 11.10%, and 0.14% of the Gorgan river basin and 45.11%, 49.96%, 4.17%, and 0.076% of the Atrak river basin are in high, medium, low, and no hazards, respectively. The highest flood hazard areas in Gorgan and Atrak rivers basins in the north, northwest, west, and east, and south and southwest are mostly at medium flood hazard. Also, the results of RF and SVM algorithms with an overall accuracy of more than 85% for Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Landsat-8 images and 80% for Sentinel-3 images indicate that the flooding is related to the western, southwestern, and northern regions including agricultural, bare lands and built up. According to the obtained results and the efficiency of the FBWM-WMCA model, the Gorgan and Atrak rivers basins need proper planning for flood hazard management.

Prevalence and determinants of post-traumatic stress disorder five months after the 2019 huge flooding in Iran

BackgroundDespite the high occurrence of floods in Iran, its psychological consequences have been less discussed. The present paper addresses the prevalence of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and its determinants among the affected adults by the huge flood of 2019.MethodsAn analytical cross-sectional study was conducted through household face-to-face surveys in August and September 2019. Individuals who were affected by floods and were at least 16 years old were randomly selected from three provinces in Iran: Lorestan and Khuzestan in the west and southwest, and Golestan in the northeast. The questionnaire of demographic and flood related variables in addition to the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) were utilized to collect the data. We applied a complex sample analysis to describe the prevalence of PTSD and logistic regression analyses to find its determinants.ResultsOut of the 2,305 individuals approached for surveys, 1,671 (72.5%) adults affected by the floods participated in the study. The majority of participants were housewives, married, had either no formal education or primary education, and resided in rural areas. The prevalence of PTSD in the participants was 24.8% (CI 95%: 20.7–28.8%) and was significantly higher in Lorestan province (39.7%, P < 0.001). Determinants of PTSD, were unemployment (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.53, CI 95%: 1.38-9.00), primary (AOR = 2.44, CI 95%: 1.10–5.41) or high school (AOR = 2.35, CI 95%: 1.25–4.40) education (vs. university), a history of mental disorders (AOR = 2.36, CI 95%: 1.22–4.58), high damage to assets (AOR = 2.29, CI 95%: 1.40–3.75), limited access to health care services after the flood (AOR = 1.95, CI 95%: 1.20–3.19), not receiving compensation for flood damage (AOR = 1.94, CI 95%: 1.01–3.83), high wealth index (AOR = 1.90, CI 95%: 1.23–2.93), and flooded house with a height of more than one meter (AOR = 1.66, CI 95%: 1.02–2.76).ConclusionResults show a notable prevalence of PTSD, especially in Lorestan province, among adults affected by floods. Determinants of PTSD include unemployment, lower education, psychiatric history, extensive property damage, limited post-flood healthcare access, lack of compensation, and increased flood exposure. We recommend adopting an inclusive screening approach for high-risk groups and developing appropriate therapeutic and supportive interventions.

Experiences and Lessons Learned from Floods in Iran - Crisis Education Performance in Khuzestan, Iran

The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the educational performance of managers of Khuzestan government agencies and institutions to deal with the flood of 2019. The method of this study was a mixed research method of explanatory type. The statistical population of the study consisted of 13 organizations involved in the crisis management of Khuzestan. In the quantitative part according to Krejci and Morgan's table, 341 participants were selected by stratified random sampling. In this section, a researcher-made questionnaire was used. The validity of the questionnaire was evaluated by some experts, and its reliability was calculated to be 0.96 through Cronbach's alpha. The results were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, and t-test. The participants of the quality parts of the study were 13 managers and officials of the education department of the mentioned organizations who were purposefully selected. Findings in the quantitative part of the research showed that except for 4 organizations, the employees of other organizations believed that the relevant organizations did not perform well in relation to holding crisis management courses and training related to all four stages of crisis management. The results of the qualitative section showed that the reasons for the inadequate educational performance of these organizations are the existence of categories such as the personal status of employees, organizational constraints, weakness of courses held, parallel work, and decisions of senior managers. Increasing the quality level of courses, providing organizational resources and facilities, and management solutions were suggested. Keywords : training, evaluation, government agencies, floods in Iran. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55463/hkjss.issn.1021-3619.60.56

A hybrid novel framework for flood disaster risk control in developing countries based on smart prediction systems and prioritized scenarios

A Decision Support System (DSS) is a highly efficient concept for managing complex objects in nature or human-made phenomena. The main purpose of the present study is related to designing and implementation of real-time monitoring, prediction, and control system for flood disaster management as a DSS. Likewise, the problem of statement in the research is correlated to implementation of a system for different climates of Iran as a unique flood control system. For the first time, this study coupled hydrological data mining, Machine Learning (ML), and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) as smart alarm and prevention systems. Likewise, it created the platform for conditional management of floods in Iran's different clusters of climates. According to the KMeans clustering system, which determines homogeneity of the hydrology of a specific region, Iran's rainfall is heterogeneous with 0.61 score, which is approved high efficiency of clustering in a vast country such as Iran with four seasons and different climates. In contrast, the relation of rainfall and flood disaster is evaluated by Nearest Neighbors Classification (NNC), Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Gaussian Process Classifier (GPC), and Neural Network (NN) algorithms which have an acceptable correlation coefficient with a mean of 0.7. The machine learning outputs demonstrated that based on valid data existence problems in developing countries, just with verified precipitation records, the flood disaster can be estimated with high efficiency. In the following, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method as a Game Theory (GT) technique ranked the preventive flood damages strategies through three social (Se 1), environmental (Se 2), and economic (Se 3) crises scenarios. The solutions of flood disaster management are collected from literature review, and the opinion approves them of 9 senior experts who are retired from a high level of water resource management positions of Iran. The outcomes of the TOPSIS method proved that National announcement for public-institutional participation for rapid response and funding (G1-2), Establishment of delay structures to increase flood focus time to give the animals in the ecosystem the opportunity to escape to the upstream points and to preserve the habitat (G 2–8), and Granting free national financial resources by government agencies in order to rebuild sensitive infrastructure such as railways, hospitals, schools, etc. to the provincial treasury (G3-10) are selected as the best solution of flood management in Social, Environmental, and Economic crises, respectively. Finally, the collected data are categorized in Social, Environmental, and Economic aspects as three dimensions of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and ranked based on the opinion of 32 experts in the five provinces of present case studies.

Text mining for opinion analysis: the case of recent floods in Iran on Twitter

The sentiment analysis relates to the study and understanding of emotions and beliefs in a particular text. This analysis gives us a lot of information. Twitter is a popular social network in recent years, in which users express their opinions and feelings about various topics in the Twitter social media operating system. By analysing this information, we can get an overview of public opinion about any particular topic. The classification of information is effective in understanding information and we cluster information. In this article, we are trying to analyse the status of Twitter on the monitoring and emotions of people about the recent flood events in Iran.

Behavioral, health- related and demographic risk factors of death in floods: A case-control study.

During the first half of 2019, many provinces of Iran were affected by floods, which claimed the lives of 82 people. The present study aimed to investigate the behavioral, health related and demographic risk factors associated with deaths due to floods. We measured the odds ratio and investigated the contribution and significance of the factors in relation to mortality. This case-control study was conducted in the cities affected by flood in Iran. Data were collected on the flood victims using a questionnaire. Survivors, a member of the flood victim's family, were interviewed. In total, 77 subjects completed the survey in the case group, and 310 subjects completed the survey in the control group. The findings indicated that factors such as the age of less than 18 years, low literacy, being trapped in buildings/cars, and risky behaviors increased the risk of flood deaths. Regarding the behavioral factors, perceived/real swimming skills increased the risk of flood deaths although it may seem paradoxical. This increment is due to increased self confidence in time of flood. On the other hand, skills and abilities such as evacuation, requesting help, and escape decreased the risk of flood deaths. According to the results, the adoption of support strategies, protecting vulnerable groups, and improving the socioeconomic status of flood-prone areas could prevent and reduce the risk of flood deaths.

Sanctions or National Policies in COVID-19 Management in Iran: Which One is More Effective?!

The new corona disease (COVID-19) is very contagious and features a high risk of vast outbreak and infection. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global public health emergency condition on 30 January 2020 and a universal epidemic afterwards by given its rapid epidemic worldwide (1). Iran was amongst the first countries influenced by COVID-19. Iran’s health system was shocked by the fast and vast outbreak of the virus which made it impossible to take appropriate measures on the first days of COVID-19 outbreak for its management. However, Iran made maximal efforts returning to normal conditions. On the other hand, United States (US) sanctions contributed to the worsening of the conditions. The sanctions that mark the US’s economic and political war against Iran, date back to long time ago. These sanctions had indirect, adverse effects on the relief and rescue measures during the 2019 flood in Iran, as well (2). Sanctions are the perfect violation of humanitarian programs and are in conflict with the United Nations (UN) charter and the international human right declaration. Nonetheless, not only COVID-19 had no effects on the US’s perspectives and policies, but the sanctions have also been increased by the US in this period. In fact, the sanctions are the genuine manifestation of the US’s application of terrorism. These sanctions exert subtle physical, psychological, and mental effects on the people based on contribution to further spread of COVID-19.

Health sector’s flood response plan: A comprehensive review

Background: Floods are the most common natural disaster which may have substantial impacts on the human health and life and the environment. In recent years, Iran have faced many floods and it seems that increasing impacts of floods in Iran are attributed to inadequate preparation and no well-established strategies and guidelines for response by health sector and other related response organizations. So, this study was conducted to review the current plans in the world to identify the required elements of the flood emergency response plan to prevent its consequences on the health sector in Iran. Methods: A comprehensive review was performed through search on electronic data bases, including, Medline, Scopus, ProQuest, and e-journals which were accessible during 2010-2020. The keywords were response plan, flood, requirements, guidelines, and health sector. Data were collected using data extraction form and analyzed through content analysis. Results: In the initial search, 960 possible sources of flood response were identified. After excluding duplicate papers and the documents that did not contribute to the flood response plan, 64 articles and programs or guidelines that all them has been reviewed, were obtained. The findings were divided into two groups, response prerequisites and response activities. Conclusion: This review provided a complete view of the flood consequences for the health sector and allows professionals to incorporate facets of the health effect of floods into a flood response plan. The flood response plan was divided into two general categories: Initial and specific, each of which plays an important role in preventing the negative effects of the floods.

Large-scale replenishment of groundwater depletion by long-lived extreme rainstorms in arid regions: case study of the 2019 floods in Iran

Large-scale replenishment of groundwater depletion by long-lived extreme rainstorms in arid regions: case study of the 2019 floods in Iran

Evidence and consequences of the flood in Iran from prehistory to the present

سیل یک رویداد مخرب است که هم به علل طبیعی و هم به‌‌دلیل مدیریت نادرست عوامل انسانی رخ می‌دهد. در دوره‌های تغییر اقلیم، عمدتا به‌دلیل بارش‌های حدی، سیلاب‌های ویران‌گری اتفاق افتاده‌اند، به‌طوری‌که منجر به خسارات و زیان‌های اقتصادی سنگین، آوارگی، مهاجرت‌، شیوع بیماری‌های همه‌گیر و مرگ‌ومیر بسیاری از مردم شده‌اند. پژوهش‌های روان‌شناختی مرتبط با گرمایش کنونی زمین نیز نشان‌دهندة بروز و یا تشدید اختلالات روانی پس از وقوع این رویداد طبیعی هستند. در این پژوهش به منظور روشن‌تر شدن ابعاد گوناگون رخداد سیل، پیامدهای ناگوار اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سلامتی آن مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. هم‌چنین، با بهره‌گیری از پژوهش‌های دیرین‌اقلیم، باستان‌شناسی و تاریخی، نمونه‌هایی از این رویداد که تأثیرات مخرب گسترده‌ای به‌جا گذاشته‌اند، ارایه شده‌اند. گردآوری رویدادهای وقوع سیل از اسناد تاریخی و یافتن شواهد سیلاب در بین لایه‌های فرهنگی محوطه‌های باستانی در کنار پژوهش‌های دیرین‌اقلیم، می‌تواند نتایج دقیق‌تری از شرایط اقلیمی و محیطی گذشته حاصل نماید. در بررسی‌های رسوب‌شناسی محیطی برخی از محوطه‌های باستانی ایران، شواهد وقوع سیلاب‌های سهمگینی متعلق به اواسط و اواخر هزارة چهارم قبل از میلاد یافت شده‌ است و در کتب تاریخی دورة اسلامی نیز برخی از این رخدادها گزارش شده‌اند. این وقایع با دوره‌های تغییر اقلیم گرمایش قرون وسطی و عصر یخبندان کوچک هم‌زمانی دارند و در ایران بیش‌تر به‌دلیل بارش‌های حدی و طغیان رودخانه‌ها و مسیل‌ها رخ داده‌اند. درنتیجه، اگر پیشگیری و مهار سیل در ایران به‌طور کارآمد و مؤثر مدیریت نشود، بارش‌های حدی مرتبط با تغییر اقلیم کنونی می‌توانند تأثیرات منفی اجتماعی- اقتصادی جبران‌ناپذیری بهجا بگذارند.

Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran in the 21st century based on CMIP5 models

Climate extremes have large impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. Projection of changes in climate extremes is very important for long-term planning. The current study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran based on 18 CMIP5 models for the period 2006-2100. National gridded data from the Asfazari database were used to evaluate climate model simulation. Results indicate that models with higher spatial resolution (CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3) perform better than those with lower resolution in capturing the spatial features of extreme precipitation events. Bias correction was applied to the models and the projected changes were assessed with the nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal trend test and Sen slope estimator at a 95% confidence level. Annual total precipitation (PRPCTOT) and rainy days (RD) were projected to decrease but the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes were predicted to increase significantly. The projected decreases were larger in northwestern parts than other regions, with PRPCTOT decreasing by 18 to 22 mm decade-1 and RD by 4 to 4.8 d decade-1. Although there were discrepancies in rates between the models, extreme precipitation events over Iran were generally projected to increase. An increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) was predicted for most regions by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, with the largest increase of 5 to 6.8 d decade-1 found for northwestern Iran. In eastern areas of Iran, where precipitation occurs extremely rarely, the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) or even 20 mm (R20) were projected to increase significantly. In conclusion, these changes suggest an increased risk of flash floods in Iran from increased extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

Public libraries in crisis time: empirigraphy of Iranian public libraries in the 2019 Iran massive flood

PurposeOne of the largest floods in Iran happened in Nowruz in 2019, during which torrents of rain, flooding of rivers, landslides and the destruction of dams caused floods and led to financial losses and loss of life in 25 provinces of Iran. During and after the flood, 39 public libraries were closed, three libraries were evacuated and one was completely destroyed.Design/methodology/approachDespite the damage that occurred in the libraries, the preventive measures had been taken by many of them to reduce the whole damage. In addition, after the flood, responsible organizations including Iran Public Libraries Institution, the Institute for the Intellectual Development of Children and Young Adults and the Cultural and Art Organization of Municipality and the Mosques and Cultural Center, as well as other relief and social teams, and even people performed activities to reduce the negative impacts caused by the flood.FindingsThis article reviews these activities and their effectiveness. In the end, “the development of a plan for public libraries in natural and social crises” is proposed and the reasons for its necessity are discussed.Originality/valueThis article reviews these activities and their effectiveness. In the end, “the development of a plan for public libraries in natural and social crises” is proposed and the reasons for its necessity are discussed.

Necessity of Focus on the Disaster Risk Perception: Lessons From the 2019 Floods in Iran.

Necessity of Focus on the Disaster Risk Perception: Lessons From the 2019 Floods in Iran.

Assessment of Precipitation Estimation from the NWP Models and Satellite Products for the Spring 2019 Severe Floods in Iran

Precipitation monitoring and early warning systems are required to reduce negative flood impacts. In this study, the performance of ensemble precipitation forecasts of three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models within the THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble (TIGGE) as well as the integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (GPM), namely IMERG, for precipitation estimates were evaluated in recent severe floods in Iran over the March–April 2019 period. The evaluations were conducted in three aspects: spatial distribution of precipitation, mean areal precipitation in three major basins hard hit by the floods, and the dichotomous evaluation in four precipitation thresholds (25, 50, 75, and 100 mm per day). The results showed that the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) model, in terms of spatial coverage and satellite estimates as well as the precipitation amount, were closer to the observations. Moreover, with regard to mean precipitation at the basin scale, UKMO and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models in the Gorganrud Basin, ECMWF in the Karkheh Basin and UKMO in the Karun Basin performed better than others in flood forecasting. The National Centers for Environmental Forecast (NCEP) model performed well at low precipitation thresholds, while at high thresholds, its performance decreased significantly. On the contrary, the accuracy of IMERG improved when the precipitation threshold increased. The UKMO had better forecasts than the other models at the 100 mm/day precipitation threshold, whereas the ECMWF had acceptable forecasts in all thresholds and was able to forecast precipitation events with a lower false alarm ratio and better detection when compared to other models.

Underlying factors affecting death due to flood in Iran: A qualitative content analysis

The occurrence of floods as a threat to human life seems to be increasing; thus, all sectors of the community should participate in flood risk management to understand and control the underlying factors affecting flood deaths. This qualitative study used content analysis method with a conventional approach to identify the underlying factors influencing flood deaths from the perspective of different social groups. The participants who had directly or indirectly witnessed flood deaths were amongst ordinary flood-affected people, academic groups, and disaster management authorities in different parts of Iran. The data collection was performed using in-depth interviews with 31 individuals and 7 focused group discussions. Purposeful sampling was adopted and continued until data saturation. All interviews were recorded, transcribed, coded by the research team after selecting the participants. Data analysis was performed to extract and categorize the effective factors on flood death using conventional content analysis method where coding categories were derived directly from the text data.The results of this study indicated that a wide range of factors affect the deaths caused by floods including the categories of hazard-related features, cultural, economic, social, demographic, management and physical factors. These seven categories covered 27 subcategories and 167 factors. The participants of this study referred to different codes at total 926 times. The completeness of the factors suggested that flood risk management and reduction require a variety of strategies and tactics. These include planning, training, promotion of culture of prevention, awareness, recognition and readiness, coordination, cooperation.

Possible viral infections in flood disasters: a review considering 2019 spring floods in Iran

Floods are one of the natural disasters occurring worldwide which have a massive range of health impacts. In addition to immediate dangers such as drowning, floods can increase the transmission of some communicable diseases. Up to now there was no report of viral infection outbreaks after 2019 spring floods in Iran. This review explains the possible viral infections which may occur during or after floods.

Priorities in prevention and control of flood hazards in Iran 2019 massive flood

Global climate change leads to an increasing in the number and severity of weather events such as floods. Floods have been reported one-half of all weather-associated disasters with high impacts on countries. Global warming causes a different pattern of rainfall in Iran caused long-term drought since 30 years ago and recent heavy raining which lead to a massive flood in this country. It is predicted that health subsequences of Iran 2019 flood such as communicable diseases vary due to the geographical extent and different climates of flooded areas. However, observing long term and short term preventive measures can be effective to reduce the high impact of flood in Iran.

How to reduce flood damage? Take a look back at the recent flood in Iran

How to reduce flood damage? Take a look back at the recent flood in Iran

A Qualitative Study of Violence Against Women after the Recent Disasters of Iran.

Introduction Violence against women (VAW) is one of the most widespread violations of human rights and a major barrier to achieving gender equality. Violence against women is increased in disaster-stricken communities. Violence experiences, cases, and lessons-learned concerning Iran's disasters have not been investigated, documented, or shared so far. To fill this knowledge gap, this qualitative study aimed to explore types of VAW and girls after the recent quakes and floods in Iran. Problem The objective for this study was exploring the manifestations of VAW after the natural disasters in Iran. A qualitative approach was used for this study. Data were collected by in-depth, unstructured interviews and field observations in three affected regions of Iran, including East Azerbaijan, Bushehr, and Mazandaran. A total of 15 participants, eight damaged women as well as seven key informants, were interviewed. A content analysis using Graneheim approach was performed for analyzing transcribed interviews. Two main themes were extracted from data, including domestic violence and violence within community. The first theme included three categories: physical, psychological, and sexual violence. Psychological violence and sexual harassment were two categories of violence within the community concept. Different types of violence emerged from the present research that can be anticipated and integrated into future disaster medicine plans, public health reforms, and national rules of Iran. Improving women's knowledge on their rights to have a life without violence, and participation of both women and men in violence reduction projects, can be considered in all disaster management phases. Sohrabizadeh S . A qualitative study of violence against women after the recent disasters of Iran. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(4):407-412.

A Case Study on Seasonal Floods in Iran, Watershed of Ghotour Chai Basin

This study focuses on the seasonal floods in Iran, namely in Azerbaijan province in northwest of Iran. Iran is located on 45 to 61 degrees E longitude and 25 to 38 degrees N latitude. It has an arid and semiarid climate with sporadic rainfall which creates seasonal floods and causes considerable economic, social and environmental damages. It is significant that priority of regional and national planning should be considered not only in preventing damages of floods, but also new strategies and innovative methods are necessary to be employed in controlling the floods due to geologic structures and geographic location of area.