Flexible Accelerator Research Articles

Investment behaviour and “bull & bear” dynamics: modelling real and stock market interactions

In this article, we develop a simple behavioural macrodynamic model in continuous-time with the purpose of investigating the interaction of the real economy and the financial markets. Building on Westerhoff (Discret Dyn Nat Soc, 2012), we improve the specification of aggregate demand by distinguishing between consumption and investment expenditure and assuming that the latter is determined by the flexible accelerator principle. We remove the ad hoc nonlinearity in the fundamentalist behavioural rule and allow the composition of the population between chartists and fundamentalists to be endogenously determined. The resulting nonlinear dynamic systems are shown to generate various dynamic regimes, among which the coexistence of periodic attractors with interesting economic implications. Endogenous investment and stock market dynamics emerge, procyclical to each other, reflecting the interaction of induced investment with alternating waves in speculators’ sentiments. We show that a strong investment accelerator might be a crucial force generating fluctuations that, on the one hand, are transmitted and amplified by chartists and, on the other hand, are contained by fundamentalists.

Development of 211At Production via Continuous Extraction of 211Rn

Critically needed radionuclides for cancer therapy include the alpha-emitter 211At [1] and therapeutically useful Auger-electron emitters. The ATLAS (Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System) superconducting linac at Argonne National Laboratory is suitable for production of these radionuclides. Our work is initially focusing on demonstrating production capabilities for 211At (7.2 h half-life) using the 209Bi(7Li,5n)211Rn reaction. Cross sections for these reactions peak at 600 mbarn [2,3] making production of 10’s of mCi per batch feasible using only a very small percentage of the accelerator beam time. Presently, in the U.S. 211At is primarily produced at 3 university facilities using the 209Bi(α,2n)211At reaction at in-house cyclotrons. Hence, clinical use of 211At nation-wide is limited due to its short half-life. By using the lithium induced reaction, the 211At daughter is extracted from the parent 211Rn, which has a half-life of 14 h, significantly extending the time-frame for effective distribution and use of this important radionuclide. ATLAS is an appropriate and flexible accelerator for production of medical isotopes because it can provide beams of any ion including protons, helium, lithium, and heavier ions with energies adjustable over a wide range. An upgrade of the accelerator to produce more intense lithium beams and the construction of improved neutron shielding is in progress. Following the completion of this work, currents of lithium beams of 1-10 particle microamps will be available to support the development of a 211Rn/211At generator. These combined upgrades will enable yields of ∼100 mCi of 211Rn per batch. As part of this development, an option for the continuous collection of 211Rn from a bismuth oxide target followed by separation of the 211At daughter product is being investigated. Porous bismuth oxide targets have been developed by Innosense, LLC under a DOE Small Business Grant. [4] In two test runs to date, 211Rn released from the targets was collected in charcoal traps. In the first run a metallic bismuth target was used and in the second the recently developed bismuth oxide target was used. In both runs only a low fraction of the 211Rn was released and collected on line. The first case was limited by the melting point of the metal target, and the second was limited by the target being heated only to 60 °C. The release and capture were quantified by off-line gamma counting of the long lived 207Bi daughter remaining in the production target and in the charcoal. In upcoming test runs target heating up to 600 oC will be implemented to increase release and collection efficiency.1.Vaidyanathan. G. and Zalutsky, M.R., Curr Radiopharm. 2011 October ; 4(4): 283–294.2.Meyer, G.J., Lambrecht, R.M., Inter. J. of App. Rad. and Isotopes, 31(1980)351-355.3.Washiyama, K., et al., 16th International Workshop on Targetry and Target Chemistry, Santa Fe, NM, 20164.Sampathkumaran, U. and Winter, R., Innosense, LLC, Torrance, CA, U.S. DOE SBIR project

Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan

This study analyses the effect of political stability and macroeconomic uncertainty on aggregate investment behaviour in Pakistan over the period 1960–2015. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) methodology is applied to explore both the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run behaviour of investment. The macroeconomic uncertainty variable is derived from real exchange rate and is computed by the best-fitted GARCH model. The results reveal robust effects of political stability and macroeconomic uncertainty on overall investment activity in Pakistan. The government nationalisation policy, GDP growth, user cost of capital, credit availability and degree of openness are found to be the other key determining factors for investment both in long- and short-run. However, the favourable impact of physical infrastructure on investment holds in long-run only, while its effect is adverse though insignificantly in short-run. The findings support the neoclassical flexible accelerator principle and are consistent with economic theory. The volume of available funds is the binding constraint for investment and the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis is validated in the short-run. Keywords: Aggregate Investment, Irreversibility, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Political Stability, GARCH, ARDL, Bound Testing Approach, Pakistan

The Trouble with Harrod: The fundamental instability of the warranted rate in the light of the Sraffian Supermultiplier

AbstractThe paper argues that Harrodian instability is an instance of what Hicks in his book Capital and Growth (1965) called static instability, related to the direction (and not to the intensity) of the disequilibrium adjustment process. We show why such instability obtains in demand‐led growth models in which the ratio of capacity creating private investment to output ratio is given exogenously by the aggregate marginal propensity to save. We also show that Sraffian Supermultiplier model overcomes the Harrodian instability and that its demand‐led equilibrium is statically stable. It is explained that the latter results do not follow from the presence of autonomous non‐capacity creating expenditure component as such but from its presence within a model in which investment is driven by the capital stock adjustment principle (i.e., the flexible accelerator). Finally, we argue that, although being statically stable, the equilibrium growth path of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model can be dynamically stable or unstable depending on the intensity of the reaction of investment to demand. We then provide a discrete time sufficient condition for the dynamic stability of such equilibrium that implies that the marginal propensity to invest remains lower than the marginal propensity to save during the adjustment process, a modified Keynesian stability condition.

South Africa’s Financial Development and its Role in Investment

Abstract This study investigates the impact of financial development on investment in South Africa between 1976 and 2014. The model estimated is based on the flexible accelerator investment model. Composite indices for bank-based and market-based financial development indicators are used as explanatory variables. The estimated model postulates that both bank-based financial development and market-based financial development have an acceleratorenhancing effect on investment. Results show that market-based financial development has a positive impact on investment in the long run, while bank-based financial development has a negative effect in the short run. Implications are that, for South Africa, market-based financial development has a positive accelerator-enhancing effect on investment in the long run. In contrast, bank-based financial development is found to have a negative accelerator enhancing effect on investment in the short run.

Analyzing the Effect of Bank Facilities on Private Sector Investment: Experience of the Selected Asian Countries (HPAEs)

Sustainable economic growth and development are the main economic target of all countries in the world. Physical capital plays a vital role in achieving economic growth and its fluctuations affect the general functioning of the economy. However, there is not a perfect correlation between investment and economic growth rate, but there is a striking correlation. Countries that allocate greater proportion of GDP to investment (like Singapore and Japan) experience higher rates of economic growth, while allocating smaller proportion of GDP to investment (like Rwanda and Bangladesh) leads to lower economic growth rates. In economics, capital formation consists of two stages: mobilizing savings and investing it. Therefore, saving is the primary source of capital formation which provides the necessary funds for investment. On the other hand, the banking system is the main channel to mobilize savings and allocates them for the financing of investment projects in developing countries. The credit amount, the interest rate and the way to allocate the financial resources to economic activities have an important impact on investment level and economic performance. This research examines the effect of bank facilities on private sector investment in selected High Performing Asian Economies (HPAEs) in the period (1999-2013); using flexible accelerator theory and panel data method for estimating experimental model. Findings show a significant relation between investment and explanatory variables at 5% significance level. The positive effect of bank facilities and the negative impact of real interest rate on private investment are consistent with theoretical expectations. Furthermore, the results indicate the complementary effect of government investment and negative effect of FDI on private sector investment.

Short- and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics

In this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth.

Effect of Budget Defict on Private Investment in East African Community for the Period 1981-2015: A Panel Data Analysis

Over the period of thirty four years, between 1981 and 2015, the East African Community economies have witnessed inconsistent and downward trend on the level of private investments as percentage of GDP. Several studies have been done regarding the determinants of private investment at country level while others have focused on budget/fiscal deficit, regional integration and economic growth but the findings are inconsistent. However, from the empirical literature review, most of the studies ignore effect of budget deficit on private investment. It is against this background that this study was carried out to investigate the effect of budget deficit on private investment in EAC using panel data over the period 1981-2015. The study adopted the Modified Flexible Accelerator model. Using Levin et al. (2002) to test the unit root, the study found the variable to be non-stationary at level. Co-integration test error correction model were carried to analyze the long-term and short-term dynamic of the selected macroeconomic variables on budget deficit account. The study results showed that fiscal deficit had a negative effect on private investment in the region. Debt reduction and government expenditure scaling down strategies should also be adopted in the region so as to improve the fiscal deficit hence boosting private investment and faster real GDP growth in the long run.

Dynamical coupling, the non-linear accelerator and the persistence of business cycles

Many of the research questions and programmes that were posed and suggested by Richard Goodwin remain highly relevant today for various methodological, empirical and theoretical reasons. This paper addresses the issue of whether highly articulated and complex economic interactions can be represented by a simplified low-dimension model. We follow the valuable insight offered by Goodwin in 1947, concerning the importance of dynamical interactions (coupling) and the potential role of analogue and/or digital computers in studying them fruitfully. The non-linear, dynamic multiplier–flexible accelerator model of the business cycle proposed in 1951 is extended to the case in which these economies are coupled through trade. The dynamics implied by the coupling are studied by analogy with the well-known Fermi–Pasta–Ulam problem. It is shown that for non-linear economies, even when they are exactly the same, i.e. having the same structural behavioural equations, the very rich dynamics depend crucially on the initial conditions. This result is somewhat unexpected.

Facility- and service-based competition and investment in fixed broadband networks: Lessons from a decade of access regulations in the European Union member states

This paper employs firm-level panel data of 57 incumbent and entrant firms for 23 European countries in the decade from 2003 to 2012. We examine the impact of service- and facility-based competition on firm-level investment as well as the strategic effects underlying infrastructure investment decisions. At the same time we explicitly model the structural dynamics of broadband investment by means of a flexible accelerator model. The empirical specification employs dynamic panel estimation techniques which allow us to account for various sources of endogeneity. We find that facility-based competition exerts a positive and significant impact on both incumbents and entrants implying that incumbents’ and entrants’ investment decisions are strategic complements. Moreover, we find that intermodal competition in terms of fixed-mobile substitution exerts different effects at the firm level. Finally, we show that service-based competition appears to have no significant impact on the investment decision of incumbents and entrants. However, with respect to the later phase of market liberalization, service-based competition exerts a negative impact on entrants’ investment. Our results thus also provide relevant policy guidance on the role of service-based competition in regulating emerging high-speed broadband infrastructure.

Facility- and Service-Based Competition and Investment in Fixed Broadband Networks: Lessons from a Decade of Access Regulations in the European Union Member States

This paper employs firm-level panel data of 57 incumbent and entrant firms for 23 European countries in the decade from 2003 to 2012. We examine the impact of service- and facility- based competition on firm-level investment as well as the strategic effects underlying infrastructure investment decisions. At the same time we explicitly model the structural dynamics of broadband investment by means of a flexible accelerator model. The empirical specification employs dynamic panel estimation techniques which allows us to account for various sources of endogeneity. We find that facility-based competition exerts a positive and significant impact on both incumbents and entrants implying that incumbents’ and entrants’ investment decisions are strategic complements. Moreover, we find that intermodal competition in terms of fixed-mobile substitution exerts different effects at the firm level. Finally, we show that service-based competition appears to have no significant impact on the investment decision of incumbents and entrants. However, with respect to the later phase of market liberalization,service-based competition exerts a negative impact on entrants’ investment. Our results thus also provide relevant policy guidance on the role of service-based competition in regulating emerging high-speed broadband infrastructure.

ICT and Non-ICT Investments: Short and Long Run Macro Dynamics

In this paper, we model business investment distinguishing between ICT (communication equipment, hardware and software) and Non-ICT (machinery and equipment, and nonresidential buildings) components and taking into account asset specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of capital accumulation over the business cycle. Business investment and ICT and Non-ICT assets are estimated within a VECM model to test, in a unique framework, the assumptions of the flexible accelerator model (Clark, 1944, and Koyck, 1954) and of the neoclassical model of Hall and Jorgenson (1967), as well as how financial constraints and uncertainty influence investment behaviour (Hall and Lerner, 2010, and Bloom, 2007). Our findings suggest that the long-run relationship with standard macro determinants (output and user cost) is verified for aggregate business capital stock as well as for individual Non-ICT assets but not for ICT. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment behaviour independently of the asset type. In the long-run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises over the latest Italian recession support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster the economic recovery.

The sPHENIX Barrel Upgrade: Jet Physics and Beyond

The past decade of heavy ion physics at RHIC has produced many surprising discoveries and puzzles. Currently the experiments at the LHC are providing a first look at things to come: a burgeoning program for studying the quark–gluon plasma with reconstructed jets. The PHENIX collaboration has developed a long term plan involving a series of upgrades designed to expand the physics capabilities and make use of the full enhanced luminosity at RHIC. With increased coverage and the addition of hadronic calorimetry, we demonstrate that the sPHENIX upgrade will be well positioned to provide a broad and exciting program of jet probe measurements. Sampling 50 billion Au + Au events annually, we will collect 10 million jets with transverse energy above 20 GeV and 100 thousand jets above 40 GeV. With the addition of new tracking layers and an EM preshower, a crucial program of upsilon measurements, as well as neutral pion measurements with a 40 GeV/c reach, can be made in a flexible accelerator facility capable of providing a diverse range of collision systems across many beam energies. And, ultimately, the sPHENIX detector will provide the base for staging a future electron–ion collider detector at eRHIC.

PRIVATE PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT IN SPAIN AND THE UNITED STATES

Private productive investment is, or should be, the key variable of any macroeconomic and growth models. Surprisingly enough, after a two-century of long discussions, economists are far from reaching any theoretical agreement, while empirical studies do not confirm or indeed support any particular model. It is true, though, that the most promising results are generally associated with those based on the acceleration principle. In this paper we estimate a model of capital accumulation whose independent variables are: (a) the expected rate of growth of the economy proxied by its past rate; (b) deviations of capacity utilization from its ‘normal’ level; (c) the long-term real interest rate, i.e. the cost of external finance; (d) deviations between the current profit share and its ‘conventional’ rate; and (e) deviations of confidence from its ‘conventional’ level. We examine the empirical evidence in Spain and the USA during the period 1964-2009. Econometric results support our ‘flexible accelerator’ model of investment.

Interaction of public and private investment in Southern Africa: a dynamic panel analysis

While the debate on the crowding-in-out effects of public investment on private investment largely seems to point towards a crowding-in effect in developing economies and the opposite in advanced economies, considerable evidence exists on the inconclusiveness of such findings across countries and regions. This study uses two investment models, Koyck’s flexible accelerator and Jorgenson’s neoclassical with error correction modified to empirically capture the structural and institutional characteristics of the Southern African region, to investigate crowding-in effects in one of the world’s most underdeveloped regions, Southern Africa. The study’s models reject the existence of crowding-in effects even when the public investment component of transport and communication is used. However, the study unveils macroeconomic uncertainty, market size, and capital availability as binding constraints on private investment in Southern Africa.

A Flexible High-Performance Accelerator Platform for Automotive Sensor Applications

A Flexible High-Performance Accelerator Platform for Automotive Sensor Applications

The Causal Relationship between Private and Public Investment in Zimbabwe

The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1970 to 2007. Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration approach and VEC model are employed to assess the short run relationship existing between public and private investment. The relationship between private and public investment is found to be insignificant and the direction of causality found to be unidirectional. The results support the notion that private investment precedes public investment.

DESIGNING A SOPC FOR FACE RECOGNITION USING WMPCA ALGORITHM

A flexible accelerator hardware for full-search vector quantization (VQ) has been developed as a component for a system on a programmable chip (SoPC) to use in real-time image compression and recognition applications. Nowadays, FPGA and its SoPC (System on Programmable Chip) tools are powerful enough to efficiently develop a flexible hardware accelerator for VQ application. In addition, one of statistical analysis methods, weighted modular principal component analysis, has showed efficiencies in recognition applications. In this paper, a parallel architecture for online face recognition using weighted modular principal component analysis (WMPCA) and its system-on-programmable-chip (SoPC) implementation are discussed.

Determinants of Private Investment in Ethiopia: A Time Series Study

In the growth literature, investment has been regarded as one of the primary engines of growth. Growth theories emphasise the importance of investment in determining the level of income (neoclassical) and the pace of economic growth (endogenous growth model). However, the Ethiopian private investment performance has been weak for long time. It had been stagnantly low until the end of the socialist regime. In spite of little improvement in the post‐socialist era, the share of private investment in GDP has never been above 6 percent even until 2003. Yet, the reasons behind the weak performance have not been well studied. Hence, investigating the performance trend and maim constraints of private investment in Ethiopia becomes the core theme of this study. Targeting at addressing a question of what measures should be taken to promote investment in the country, the research proceeds to test empirically whether demand augmenting and trade liberalization policies, improved infrastructural facilities, macroeconomic and political stabilities improve the private investment performance of Ethiopia. Motivated by the modified version of the Flexible Accelerator Model of investment behaviour, the empirical investigation employs a multivariate single equation ECM estimation methodology on integrated of order one, I(1), variables using annual time‐series data sets for 1950‐2003 and two sub‐periods. According to the estimation results, private investment in Ethiopia is influenced positively by domestic market, return to capital, trade openness and liberalization measures, infrastructural facilities and FDI; but, negatively by government activities, macroeconomic uncertainty and political instability. Hence, enhancing demand augmenting and trade liberalization policies, improving infrastructural facilities and maintaining macroeconomic and political stabilities should be among the main ingredients of a policy package designed to promote private investment in Ethiopia. Furthermore, the operations of the public sector and other institutions will need new thinking. Keywords: Investment, Determinants, Time‐Series, ECM, Ethiopia

Determinants of Private Investment: Time Series Evidence from Bangladesh

This article examines the determinants of private investment in Bangladesh using the standard time series econometric analysis. The empirical results partially support the flexible accelerator hypothesis. It is partial in the sense that real interest rate is not statistically significant in determining private investment whereas national output is very much effective in the long run. Further, government expenditure is found to be a significant determinant of private investment, both in the long- and short run. Government expenditures crowd out private investment, however, the effect is minimal as the investment is not interest responsive. Thus, government expenditure can be used effectively to lift output in case of recession while monetary policy is not so effective in recession because reducing the interest rate investment cannot be increased.