In the transportation industry, fleet maintenance is essential for ensuring operational efficiency, reducing costs, and extending vehicle lifespan. As fleets age, maintenance challenges escalate, impacting profitability. This study focuses on developing a maintenance reliability program for the Rivers State Transport Company (RTC) to optimize fleet management and enhance financial performance. The aim of this study is to assess RTC’s maintenance activities and design a reliability-based program that minimizes costs and maximizes profits. A mixed-method survey research design was adopted, with secondary data collected from RTC’s maintenance workshop records and financial reports spanning from 2014 to 2023. The dataset includes maintenance costs, replacement costs, and income for three vehicle models (Nissan Urvan, Toyota Hiace, and Ford Transit) across multiple years. The Dynamic Recursive Programming Model was employed to analyze vehicle age, cost, and income trends, and Microsoft Excel was used for data processing. The results show a significant rise in maintenance costs as vehicles age. For example, the Nissan Urvan’s maintenance costs increased from ₦1.2 million in 2014 to ₦2.6 million in 2023, representing a 116.7% increase over 9 years. Replacement costs for the Toyota Hiace surged from ₦4 million in 2014 to ₦8.5 million in 2023. Income generated by older vehicles also declined by approximately 25%, with the Ford Transit generating ₦5.1 million in 2023 compared to ₦6.8 million in 2014 due to frequent breakdowns and reduced reliability. The analysis further revealed that replacing vehicles after 6-7 years of operation would maximize financial returns, based on the balance of maintenance and income. In conclusion, maintaining an aging fleet presents a substantial financial burden, with rising maintenance costs, diminishing income, and increasing replacement expenses. This study recommends that RTC adopt a structured vehicle replacement policy guided by the Dynamic Recursive Programming Model. Furthermore, reliability-based maintenance strategies should be implemented to reduce unnecessary expenses and improve the overall performance and profitability of the fleet.
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