Flawed Assumptions Research Articles

You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone: the changing landscape of UK learned society publishing

This study draws on a longitudinal dataset of 277 UK learned societies covering the period 2015–2023 to provide evidence-based insights into the changing landscape of society publishing. It identifies a rapid decline in the number of self-published societies and an increasingly complex outsourcing landscape. New publishing partnerships are emerging with university presses and other not-for-profit entities rather than commercial publishers, while all but the largest UK societies have seen their publishing revenues decline in real terms since 2015. In general, UK learned society publishers are seeing their influence wane as market conditions favour publishing models focussed on quantity rather than quality. The decline of independent society publishers represents an unintended consequence of the transition to open access, but the trend towards increased outsourcing may be based on flawed assumptions. Analysis of financial data for a subset of 21 societies indicates that self-published societies have achieved sustained growth in their revenues from publishing while societies with publishing partners have seen a significant decline. For those societies with the means and the will to publish journals in their own right, this study bolsters the case for retaining, or even reclaiming, their independence.

Shunting at Arbitrary Feature Levels via Spatial Disentanglement: Toward Selective Image Translation.

The past few years have witnessed considerable efforts devoted to translating images from one domain to another, mainly aiming at editing global style. Here, we focus on a more general case, selective image translation (SLIT), under an unsupervised setting. SLIT essentially operates through a shunt mechanism that involves learning gates to manipulate only the contents of interest (CoIs), which can be either local or global, while leaving the irrelevant parts unchanged. Existing methods typically rely on a flawed implicit assumption that CoIs are separable at arbitrary levels, ignoring the entangled nature of DNN representations. This leads to unwanted changes and learning inefficiency. In this work, we revisit SLIT from an information-theoretical perspective and introduce a novel framework, which equips two opposite forces to disentangle the visual features. One force encourages independence between spatial locations on the features, while the other force unites multiple locations to form a "block" that jointly characterizes an instance or attribute that a single location may not independently characterize. Importantly, this disentanglement paradigm can be applied to visual features of any layer, enabling shunting at arbitrary feature levels, which is a significant advantage not explored in existing works. Our approach has undergone extensive evaluation and analysis, confirming its effectiveness in significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art baselines.

An improved Chinese load code method for the evaluation of wind‐induced base shear force on base‐isolated buildings

AbstractThe isolator units in a seismically isolated structure shall have a surplus yield strength under wind loads. The isolation interface must have enough strength to state at an elastic stage under wind loads. This necessitates an accurate evaluation of wind‐induced base shear force. Initially, to calculate the equivalent static wind load (ESWL) and the base shear force of a base‐isolated building, the validity of the inertial wind load (IWL) method and Chinese load code (CLC) method, the simplification based on the IWL method, are examined via comparison with response‐history analysis results. Comparative analysis reveals that the IWL method was more accurate in evaluating the ESWL and the base shear force of base‐isolated building, while the CLC method underestimated them due to the following reasons: inaccurate fundamental modal shape, a reduced peak factor, the omission of the ESWL contribution from the isolation interface, and flawed assumptions of uniform mass distribution. Subsequently, an improved CLC method that combined the exponential modal shape and first modal generalized mass modification coefficient is proposed and verified by a case study. Compared with the CLC method, the fluctuating base shear force calculated by the improved CLC method increased by 10% in the case study. Finally, the effect of non‐uniformly distributed mass is further considered in the proposed method by devising a mass conversion coefficient, and the case study has also validated this method. Without considering the effect of the non‐uniform mass, the fluctuating base shear force will be underestimated by 7.8% in the case study.

Minding the gap? Blind spots in the ILO's and the EU's perspective on anti-forced labour policy

This article critically examines the EU's recent proposal to ban products made with forced labour from its market, which adopts the ILO's definition of ‘forced labour’ as outlined in the Forced Labour Convention of 1930 (No. 29). The authors argue that the EU's endorsement of the ILO's approach is problematic due to two flawed assumptions: (1) the definition of ‘forced labour’ is universally accepted across the EU, and (2) it is well-suited to combat forced labour in contemporary supply chains. Through an analysis of ongoing debates between the ILO and its Member States, the article demonstrates a lack of consensus regarding the interpretation of the Convention, particularly in the context of hybrid public-private prison labour arrangements. Furthermore, introducing a new Hybrid Multi-Dimensional (HMD) model for analysing contemporary prison labour practices, the article reveals blind spots in the ILO's approach that may inadvertently allow the incorporation of prison labour into supply chains, contrary to the EU's objectives. The article argues that the EU's unequivocal endorsement of the ILO's definition disregards these fundamental issues and may hinder the effective implementation of its proposed ban. The authors suggest that the HMD model offers a more comprehensive framework for analysing the complex realities of modern prison labour and could provide a roadmap for resolving the ILO-States debate. The article concludes that the EU should reconsider its wholesale adoption of the ILO's approach in light of the HMD model's insights in order to fulfil the objectives of its proposed forced labour product ban.

Using fractal voids to understand Mode I compressive fracture in brittle materials – A two-dimensional analysis

Unlike cases of direct or indirect tensile loading, analysis of Mode I fracture in cases of compressive loading must necessarily consider two-dimensional flaw geometries. The consequent analytical complications have resulted in little theoretical evolution towards understanding Mode I fracture in compressive loading. Researchers have recently observed that the linear elastic (LE) stress fields surrounding two-dimensional flaws in compression appear to have indicative value regarding Mode I fracture, but no rational framework has yet been proposed for their interpretation. Herein it is demonstrated that by idealizing void surfaces as fractal, and using what will be called the “small flaw assumption,” LE stress fields can be interpreted to obtain significant insight regarding brittle Mode I compressive fracture. Using fractal voids, a rational and consistent explanation for the satisfaction of the stress and energy criteria at the surface of two-dimensional flaws is presented. The discussion resolves many typical theoretical issues in the literature in a manner consistent with fundamental Griffith theory, and accounts for size and shape effects. The framework further enables the computationally efficient prediction of peak KI values associated with the propagation of line cracks from two-dimensional flaws from a brittle medium subject to macroscopic uniaxial compression via LE stress fields.

Manifold-based Shapley explanations for high dimensional correlated features

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) holds significant importance in enhancing the reliability and transparency of network decision-making. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) is a game-theoretic approach for network interpretation, attributing confidence to inputs features to measure their importance. However, SHAP often relies on a flawed assumption that the model’s features are independent, leading to incorrect results when dealing with correlated features. In this paper, we introduce a novel manifold-based Shapley explanation method, termed Latent SHAP. Latent SHAP transforms high-dimensional data into low-dimensional manifolds to capture correlations among features. We compute Shapley values on the data manifold and devise three distinct gradient-based mapping methods to transfer them back to the high-dimensional space. Our primary objectives include: (1) correcting misinterpretations by SHAP in certain samples; (2) addressing the challenge of feature correlations in high-dimensional data interpretation; and (3) reducing algorithmic complexity through Manifold SHAP for application in complex network interpretations. Code is available at https://github.com/Teriri1999/Latent-SHAP.

Errors and bias in marine conservation and fisheries literature: Their impact on policies and perceptions

Sound and effective policies, informed by reliable science, are needed to ensure sustainable well-being of oceans and marine resources. Scientific publications often influence evolving policies and inform the public, but sometimes contain errors. The prevalence of papers conveying unjustified messages and with potential to influence public perceptions and policies is concerning. This paper focuses on marine examples that have led to exaggeration of negative impacts on ecosystems, particularly from fisheries, but the criticisms and recommendations also apply more generally. Examples are given of papers on high profile topics that used flawed assumptions or methods, leading to some misleading findings. All examples were eventually followed by published rebuttals. Such papers, often accompanied by media campaigns, can lead to inappropriate policy choices, and other negative outcomes. Science is eventually self-correcting but often too slowly to prevent flawed perceptions and policies. Problems should be corrected before publication. A common weakness in the publication process is inadequate peer-review. Shortcomings at the level of editor can also contribute to the failures. Pressure on scientists to publish, leading to increasing numbers of papers, puts reviewers under more pressure and makes it harder for editors to find suitable ones. Recommendations to avoid the impact of flawed science on policies are made within the framework of a three-legged stool consisting of: (1) scientists who strive for objectivity and accuracy; (2) journals with editors and referees better equipped to guard against unreliable scientific publications; and (3) transparent and inclusive scientific processes to formulate advice on policies and their implementation.

An Austrian Critique of Using Carbon Taxes to Manage Climate Catastrophe Risk

Revising and extending the neoclassical rationale for pollution taxes, some economists have attempted to justify a carbon emissions tax as a way for the state to manage systemic climate risks for society. Deploying an approach to risk management commonly seen in financial markets, they depict a tax on carbon-based energy as a hedge against climate catastrophe. The Austrian school of economics has illuminated the conceptual defects of the neoclassical framework around welfare economics, market failure, negative externalities, and socialist economic planning generally. The risk management rationale for carbon taxes suffers from the same calculation and knowledge problems that encumber other state-centric schemes. This article critiques the proposed use of carbon taxes as climate risk insurance on the grounds that systemic risks are not insurable. Moreover, future climate costs cannot be calculated due to their subjectivity, the passage of time, and the absence of demonstrated preferences regarding property values. Both climate risk models and carbon tax cost-benefit models employ flawed assumptions and utility functions. This article proposes a strategic shrinking of the state’s role in economic affairs and a return to sound money as superior ways to mitigate a society’s climate disaster risks.

Понятие субъекта педагогической деятельности: философский анализ

The article delves into the philosophical analysis of the concept of the subject of pedagogical activity. The concept of the subject in the context of pedagogical activity has long been a subject of philosophical inquiry. The authors focus on the well-known principle of subject-to-subject relations, wherein both the educator and the learners are considered subjects of activity, has gained prominence in educational discourse. The authors argue that despite the attractiveness of this approach, it has certain limitations. To be considered a subject of pedagogical activity, individuals must meet specific requirements. Therefore, the authors of the article suggest that assuming all learners are a priori subjects of pedagogical activity is a flawed assumption. This article aims to provide a rationale for this thesis and spark a discussion on this topic. Much in this matter hinges on the definition of the concept of the subject of pedagogical activity. In conclusion, the concept of the subject of pedagogical activity warrants a nuanced philosophical analysis to elucidate the complexities inherent in attributing subjecthood in educational settings. By delineating the criteria for subject status and deconstructing the notion of universal subjectivity, this article contributes to the ongoing discourse on the nature of pedagogical relationships and the dynamics of agency within educational frameworks.

Taxing Financial Services under Australia’s GST

The author considers that the assumption that financial services are too difficult to tax under a GST is flawed. When the GST was introduced in Australia, that flawed assumption led to the exempting (input taxing) of financial services, which comes at a cost of almost AUD 6 billion per annum to the Australian revenue base. In this article, the author explains that an addition method of taxation would be effective in fully taxing financial services under Australia’s GST, and also for other jurisdictions. This method has many advantages and few disadvantages relative to the cash flow methods of taxation, and is the superior method for fully taxing financial services.

‘Covering all the [welfare] basics’: a critical policy study of the Expert Panel on Basic Income report in British Columbia, Canada

In 2018, British Columbia (BC), Canada’s third most populous province, announced the creation of an Expert Panel to explore the feasibility of introducing a basic income in BC. The Expert Panel on Basic Income prepared the policy report, Covering All the Basics: Reforms for a More Just Society, that responded to this task. Our research applies a critical policy studies approach to explore the ideologies, discursive strategies, and discourses embedded in and emanating from the report. In so doing, we find that the report reproduces problematic discourses about self-sufficiency, welfare dependency, and (poor) choice(s). Rather than discarding a basic income for the working-age population based on flawed assumptions and problematic beliefs, we invite policymakers to consider a more transformative vision that recognises the systemic roots of financial hardship, and embraces a basic income as a key building block of income security for BC and all of Canada.

Advancing the Sustainability of Risk Assessments within the Renewable Energy Sector—Review of Published Risk Assessments

Repeated regulatory incident investigations demonstrate the insufficiency of company risk assessments and the vulnerabilities that this exposes to the business and its duty holders who are, ultimately, culpable for the subsequent legislative breaches. While the epistemology and taxonomy of the traditional risk assessment are well established, there is a paucity of information that allows the verification and validation of the risk assessment content. Using evidence-based methodologies such as Content Analysis, Thematic Analysis, and validating the outputs using a survey, it became possible to “reverse engineer” the risk assessment content. This analysis of the published risk assessments, kindly supplied by six different Renewable Energy businesses, established that deterministic and behavioristic risk management methodologies had been adopted. These methodologies permitted and guided the use of vague and imprecise terminology and phraseology, numerical inconsistencies resulting in data ossification, and flawed assumptions. This analysis enables the duty holders to make informed and rational judgements about the adequacy of the risk assessment documents, and the process that permitted and guided their creation.

Bridging Compartmental Models and Network Analysis in Epidemiological Modelling

In this study, the authors undertake a comparative analysis of compartmental models and network analysis as means of simulating the propagation of infectious diseases. Compartmental models operate under the assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is often a flawed assumption as individuals tend to engage in varied contact patterns based on their surrounding environments. On the other hand, social network analysis accounts for the intricate web of interpersonal connections between individuals, thereby offering a more realistic portrayal of social behaviour. However, network analysis can be computationally demanding, rendering its application in real-time epidemic modelling challenging. By conducting a series of simulations utilising the SIR model and network analysis, the authors accentuate the merits of a hybrid modelling approach that integrates the strengths of both compartmental models and network analysis while mitigating their respective limitations. Additionally, the authors suggest plausible avenues for future research.

‘Ye Shall Do No Injustice in Judgment’—Are Religious Courts to Blame for the Agunah Problem?

Abstract Orthodox Judaism requires women to receive a religious divorce (Get) from their husbands in order to remarry. The ‘Agunah problem’ refers to the phenomenon whereby husbands deny a Get for financial reasons or pure malice, placing women in a state of limbo where they cannot remarry under Jewish law. According to Daniel Greenberg, newly appointed Parliamentary Standards Commissioner and the author of a recent monograph on the topic, the problem is largely the fault of the divorce procedures followed by religious courts, which may also be in violation of criminal and human rights law. This article contends with Greenberg’s claims, concluding that most of them are based on flawed assumptions of fact or misunderstandings of English or Jewish law. Get refusal is attributable to Get refusers, not the religious courts who enjoy a mere supervisory role in the Jewish divorce process. However, the article does recommend that religious courts providing divorce services improve their levels of transparency to prevent further misunderstandings about the way they operate.

Understanding the ‘blues of safety professionals’

Something is not right in the safety profession. Many books written by professionals in the 2010s express a strong discontent. These professionals are highly critical of their situation, practice, role and identity. In these books, they express what this article describes as the ‘blues of safety professionals’. Although varying in writing style, tone, theoretical inspiration, emphasis and experience, they address similar issues which relate to practices corresponding, in their eyes, to outmoded, inadequate or even perverse ideas. The aim of this article is to introduce, summarize, explain and problematize the significance of this literature. Following a methodological section, the ‘safety professional blues’ is introduced. It is argued in another section that the ‘blues’ pinpoints what these authors consider to be flawed assumptions about many of the core ingredients of the safety profession. The roots of this discontent are the topic of another section, while a final section problematizes the ‘blues’.

Images, Investigators, Identification, Code D and the Court of Appeal

The rapid rise in accessibility and portability of cameras has resulted in widespread reliance on the interpretation of images by analysts and investigators in criminal proceedings. Codes of practice, guidance and jurisprudence have evolved to facilitate the admission of opinions as to the identity of offenders (or persons of interest) at trial. In this article, we explain why allowing investigators to give opinions as to identity on the basis of familiarity with images or suspects acquired during the course of an investigation is incompatible with mainstream scientific research and advice, and conducive to error. It rests on the flawed assumption that investigators can reliably identify or recognise persons in images, articulate and document the basis of these ‘identifications’, and avoid the risk of contamination (really cognitive bias) from their knowledge of, or exposure to, domain-irrelevant information. Jurors, who may be invited to conduct their own comparison between an image and the defendant in the dock, are similarly vulnerable to assuming the task is straightforward, as well as many of the contextual and cognitive biases confronting investigators. Using the facts and evidence in R v Yaryare [2020] EWCA Crim 1314 as a case study, we show how case information available to investigators and imaging analysts both inform their interpretations of images and is (re-)presented at trial and on appeal as independent support for their opinions. We identify substantial threats to fairness, proof and rationality and propose that only witnesses with demonstrable expertise should be permitted to testify as to the identity of persons of interest in images.

Growth hacking: A critical review to clarify its meaning and guide its practical application

There is an increasing recognition among academics and practitioners that growth hacking provides a means to bridge the gap between strategy definition and strategy implementation. Significant tensions tend to arise across this gap. However, the data-driven experimentation, and the organizational capabilities developed within the firm, increase the ability of the company to foster technological forecasting and business model innovation. It is argued within this paper, that growth hacking actually mitigates these tensions. This paper is a critical review complemented with insights from practitioners and an illustrative case, the purpose of which is to: a) shed light on what growth hacking is; b) give practical tips on how to implement growth hacking. In achieving the first goal, the paper unravels the following myths. First, growth hacking is not a framework for platforms and high-tech companies only. Second, it is not only a marketing strategy and third, that growth hacking is a predefined process. These issues are traced back to two flawed assumptions underlying growth hacking; namely that (a) it is a framework designed for start-ups only and (b) that a “one size fits all” approach to growth hacking is appropriate. By unravelling those issues and combining these observations we shall provide ground for a fundamentally different approach to growth hacking, designed for business model scalability, enabled for adaptability in a changing business environment and focused throughout on the effective management of a firm's resources and capabilities. These insights shall guide scholars towards a better understanding of the phenomenon and of the two waves that characterize its evolution, providing also promising future research avenues. Moreover, the implications drawn from the discussion shall help managers in guiding their journey from strategy definition to strategy implementation.

Time for a paradigm change: Problems with the financial industry's approach to operational risk.

Organizational and risk cultures in the financial industry are argued to be the root cause of banking problems. It is concerning that financial regulators and practitioners still consider the industry to be seriously fragile in several respects, particularly to operational risks and risks associated with digital transformation and innovation-not that the risks of organizational misconduct have disappeared. The rescue of Credit Suisse in 2023 confirms this. This paper employs extant theories of organizational culture, learning, and action to critically evaluate the existing risk paradigm in banking and to highlight its deficiencies, which practitioners can only address by questioning the flawed assumptions and dysfunctional values and behaviors found to be endemic in banks. However, business and risk practitioners are also married to institutional approaches that focus on assessing risk and measuring historical losses to allocate regulatory capital, rather than forward-looking approaches to measure and manage risk. This requires a paradigm change. This paper presents a novel risk measurement and accounting methodology, Risk Accounting, to help underpin such change. Risk accounting measures risk exposure in quantitative and qualitative terms and can be implemented using an AI-enabled digital architecture that could solve endemic problems with risk data aggregation and analysis. Significantly, risk accounting enables a financial value to be placed on risk exposures at a granular level. This level of transparency provides an incentive to change behaviors in banks and support cultural change while providing a basis for a paradigm change in the way operational risk is managed.

The Russian Military’s Biological Warfare Disinformation Campaign and the Russo-Ukrainian War

ABSTRACT As part of its war effort in Ukraine following its invasion in February 2022, the Russian military has had the lead on a psychological operations (PSYOP) campaign of disinformation focused on claims of an alleged U.S.-run biological warfare program in Ukraine. This study analyzes the mechanics and content of this effort in terms of objectives, target audiences, key communicators, themes, dissemination methods, and measures of effectiveness and assesses its results, concluding that while considerable assets have been invested in this PSYOP campaign in support of the overall Russian war effort, and despite some tactical impact, greater success has been elusive due to the campaign’s flawed assumptions and structure.

Using clinical risk models to predict outcomes: what are we predicting and why?

Clinical risk prediction models can support decision making in emergency medicine, but directing intervention towards high-risk patients may involve a flawed assumption. This concepts paper examines prognostic clinical risk prediction...