Flatten The Curve Research Articles

Comment on “Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19″

This short research note describes and summarizes several recent peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed studies on the concept of flattening-the-curve (FTC) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This note also highlights contradictory findings of these studies in terms of the effect of FTC on the total number of infections (the final epidemic size), and poses a research problem for future studies.

Flatten the Curve!

Since the emerging of the "novel coronavirus" SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. Being one of the most affected countries in Europe, in March 2020, Germany established several nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child day care facilities (March 16-18, 2020) as well as a full "lockdown" with forced social distancing and closures of "nonessential" services (March 23, 2020). The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had an impact on the declared aim of "flattening the curve", referring to the epidemic curve of new infections. This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based on daily infections (estimated from reported cases), aiming at determining the regional growth rate of infections and the point of inflection where infection rates begin to decrease and the curve flattens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the "lockdown" was established. In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the virus emerged. Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew show no significant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. Furthermore, mortality varies strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people belonging to the "risk group", especially residents of retirement homes. The decline of infections in absence of the "lockdown" measures could be explained by 1) earlier governmental interventions (e.g., cancellation of mass events, domestic quarantine), 2) voluntary behavior changes (e.g., physical distancing and hygiene), 3) seasonality of the virus, and 4) a rising but undiscovered level of immunity within the population. The results raise the question whether formal contact bans and curfews really contribute to curve flattening within a pandemic.

Uncertainty Management and Curve Flattening Behaviors in the Wake of COVID-19’s First Wave

ABSTRACT The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak poses a substantial threat to public health. Individual efforts to engage in COVID-19 precautionary behaviors are necessary to flatten the pandemic’s curve in the waiting period before a vaccine is developed. This study sought to apply the Theory of Motivated Information Management to investigate the relationships among COVID-19 illness uncertainty, information management, and actual precautionary behaviors, both preparatory and preventative. The results of a national opt-in online panel demonstrate that uncertainty discrepancy, anxiety, and information management strategies are key predictors of the adoption of COVID-19 preparation and prevention behaviors. The results further identify diverging associations across age groups with respect to associations between information management and precautionary behaviors. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Attitudinal, regional and sex related vulnerabilities to COVID-19: Considerations for early flattening of curve in Nigeria.

Background: In Nigeria, the policies and interventions due to the COVID-19 pandemic are majorly directed at businesses and relief. There are no clear plans to identify individuals with comorbidities associated with high morbidity and fatality rates. This paper identifies comorbidities associated with high morbidity and fatalities of COVID-19 across countries and vulnerable groups in Nigeria. Methods: Peer-reviewed articles published between 2010 and 2020 retrieved from Google scholar, African Journal Online, EMBASE, Scopus, and MEDLINE/PubMed (central) were systematically reviewed. Results: The pooled prevalence of hypertension is the lowest in North Central Nigeria (22.0%) and the highest in South-Eastern Nigeria (33.6%) while the pooled prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is lowest in North-Western Nigeria (3.0%) and highest in South-Southern Nigeria (9.8%). Significant differences in the frequency of comorbidities (hypertension, DM, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic kidney disease; CKD) and complications (cardiac injury and acute respiratory disease syndrome; ARDS) were observed between fatal and non-fatal cases of COVID-19 (p<0.0001). There were significant correlations between hypertension and ARDS (p=0.002), DM and ARDS (p=0.010), hypertension and (p<0.0001), DM and CKD (p=0.033), and hypertension and DM (p=0.001). Conclusion: High prevalence of comorbidity may be predictive of high COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Thus, to flatten the curve early intervention funds should be appropriately allocated based on the prevalence of comorbidities in the geopolitical zones. Such high-risk groups should be identified, stratified and actively monitored during treatment to prevent the development or progression of complications such as cardiac injury and ARDS.

Flattening the curve: From pandemics to the peacetime effect.

Flattening the curve: From pandemics to the peacetime effect.

Flattening the curve of emotional distress during COVID-19

Aims: The aim of this article is to examine how the facilitation of narrative sessions aids in “flattening the curve” of distress and anxiety experienced by healthcare professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and Material: Sixty-eight participants were surveyed. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected through postsession surveys, copies of stories submitted by participants, and de-identified statements captured by facilitators during the sessions. Two primary themes were used (i.e., difficult/challenging and uplifting/inspiring) to structure the writing prompt and to analyze participant stories. Using a layered account, the authors narrate their experiences as session facilitators and the anonymous experiences of session participants. Results: Results show that 90% of participants reported the ability to listen more closely, 92.5% reported improved resilience, and 92.5% reported the ability to immediately apply what they practiced or witnessed in the narrative sessions. Conclusion: Engaging in narrative writing and sharing stories verbatim in online sessions has the potential to address moral distress, increase active listening, and build resilience for health-care professionals. This article highlights the critical role of engaging health-care professionals in reflective practices to process, reflect, and share their personal and professional experiences related to the impact of COVID-19. The following core competencies are addressed in this article: Interpersonal and communication skills

Flatten the curve #stayhome Feelings of Isolation: Loneliness or Being Alone

Flatten the curve #stayhome Feelings of Isolation: Loneliness or Being Alone

Coronavirus-19 pandemic: Time to defuse misbelief and build trust

Novel coronavirus disease termed as nCOVID-19 by the World Health Organization has posed serious threat to the health and well-being of humankind The pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption of life and impacted almost all the sections of the society Health-related emergencies and urgencies due to COVID-19 have drawn major attention of all the stakeholders involved in ensuring the well-being of the society On the other hand, the pandemic has impacted the mental, emotional, social, educational, nutritional, and vocational dimensions of health Nationwide lockdown, a measure taken toward achieving social distancing, thereby flattening the curve has resulted in a rise of mental health issues, emotional disturbances, migrant exodus, poverty, deficient food supply, hunger, academic stagnation, learning crisis, unemployment, and job insecurities among people All these problems have the potential to impact the health and well-being of the society in the long run and hamper the attainment of sustainable development goals

Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic containment: Actions needing utmost priority during the period of lockdown

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has produced a massive impact on the global health sector and the economy of the nation and accounted for the loss of quality of life of millions of people across the world. The way China and South Korea have succeeded in flattening the curve of the disease, we hope that the same would be replicated even in other nations. However, the situation went so much out of hand that the national leaders had to implement very strong measures, including imposing a strict lockdown. Moreover, it is vital to understand that such kind of social restrictions will not result in the containment of the infection forever. In reality, these are just strategies to delay the spread of the infection. In conclusion, the social restriction has given a second opportunity for the public health authorities to implement targeted measures to promote early detection, wide testing, isolation, treatment, and contact tracing within their nations. This will be the best approach to reduce the caseload and interrupt the chain of transmission of COVID-19.

Die (un)vorbereitete Pandemie und die Grenzen der Preparedness Zur Biopolitik um COVID-19

Der politische Umgang mit COVID-19 ist durch ein Paradox gekennzeichnet: Zwar gilt Preparedness seit gut 20 Jahren als das zentrale Paradigma im Bereich der Gesundheitssicherheit, dennoch scheint uns die Pandemie „unvorbereitet“ zu treffen. Der vorliegende Beitrag setzt an diesem Paradox an, um zu untersuchen, was sich im Licht der aktuellen Krise über die Funktionsweise der Sicherheitsrationalität des „Vorbereitet-Seins“ aussagen lässt - über ihre Mechanismen, Versprechen und Bruchstellen. Wir zeigen, dass Preparedness auf dem Einsatz szenario-basierter Wissenstechniken beruht, anhand derer in der Vergangenheit Ereignisse imaginiert wurden, die dem COVID-19-Ausbruch durchaus ähneln. Zudem haben sich zuletzt evaluative Verfahren zur Durchsetzung von Preparedness etabliert. In beiden Fällen wurde insbesondere die Belastbarkeit der Gesundheitsinfrastrukturen als wesentliches Sicherheitsproblem angesehen. Dieser Infrastrukturalismus einer Biopolitik vitaler Systeme kennzeichnet auch die Maßnahmen zur Bewältigung der COVID-19-Pandemie. Wir arbeiten die Grenzen der Preparedness-Politik an zwei zentralen Aspekten des Ausbruchsmanagements in Deutschland heraus: der Strategie der „Abflachung der Kurve“ sowie dem Problem der mangelnden Bevorratung mit Schutzmasken. In beiden Fällen wird deutlich, dass die Sicherheitspraktik der Preparedness anfällig ist für eine Überformung durch andere Systemlogiken, dass die Vorbereitung während des SARS-CoV-2 Ausbruchs mittels Improvisation fortgesetzt werden muss und als technokratisches Projekt der Regierung über den Notfall andere Versorgungsstrategien nicht ersetzen kann.

Flattening of Horizontal Curves on Rural Two‐Lane Highways

Current practices in resurfacing, restoration, and rehabilitation of highways generally emphasize lane- and shoulder-width improvements. These practices neglect the possibility that flattening curves by reducing curvature may achieve more cost-effective designs. At the present time, guidelines for considering curve flattening on rural two-lane highways are not well established. Because accident characteristics on such highways can vary substantially from one state to another, it is desirable for each state to develop its own guidelines. As a preliminary effort, this study examines the conditions under which curve flattening on rural two-lane highways in the State of New York may become cost-effective. The study is based primarily on data reported for 155 horizontal curves in the State of New York. These curves have gentle grades and uniform geometric design. Their accident rates are governed primarily by the curvatures of the curves, and to a lesser extent by the traffic exposures. Raising the superelevation rates of these curves is unlikely to bring about a significant reduction in accidents. Flattening curves with curvatures less than 11° to achieve cost-effective improvements is difficult.