Flash Flood Response Research Articles

Toward Flash Flood Modeling Using Gradient Resolving Representative Hillslopes

AbstractIt is increasingly acknowledged that the acceleration of the global water cycle, largely driven by anthropogenic climate change, has a disproportionate impact on sub‐daily and small‐scale hydrological extreme events such as flash floods. These events occur thereby at local scales within minutes to hours, typically in response to high‐intensity rainfall events associated with convective storms. In the present work, we show that by employing physically based representative hillslope models that resolve the main gradients controlling overland flow hydrology and hydraulics, we can get reliable simulations of flash flood response in small data‐scarce catchments. To this end, we use climate reanalysis products and transfer soil parameters previously obtained for hydrological predictions in an experimental catchment in the same landscape. The inverted mass balance of flood reservoirs downstream is employed for model evaluation in these nearly ungauged basins. We show that our approach using representative hillslopes and climate data sets can provide reasonable uncalibrated estimates of the overland runoff response (flood magnitude, storm volume, and event runoff coefficients) in three of the four catchments considered. Given that flash floods typically occur at scales of a few km2 and in ungauged places, our results have implications for operational flash flood forecasting and open new avenues for using gradient resolving physically based models for the design of small and medium flood retention basins around the world.

Impact of Rainfall Movement on Flash Flood Response: A Synthetic Study of a Semi-Arid Mountainous Catchment

Rainfall is a spatiotemporally varied process and key to accurately capturing catchment runoff and determining flood response. Flash flood response of a catchment can be strongly governed by a rainfall’s spatiotemporal variability and is influenced by storm movement which drives a continuous spatiotemporal change throughout a rainfall event. In this work, the sensitivity of runoff and flooded areas to rainfall movement are assessed in the Kan catchment (Iran). The allochthonous nature of floods in the catchment and how they interact with the effects of rainfall movement are investigated. Fifty synthetic rain hyetographs are generated and traversed over the catchment under different velocities and directions and used to force a 1D/2D hydrodynamic model. The results suggest rainfall movement affects the runoff response in different degrees. Peak discharge, hydrograph shapes and flooded areas are affected. Storms with higher velocities result in higher peaks and faster onsets of runoff and consequently higher flooded areas in comparison to slower storms. The direction of the movement also plays a role. Storms moving along the average direction of the stream result in higher peaks and flooded areas. The relevance of storm direction is greater for slow moving storms. Additionally, the influence of rainfall movement is modulated by hyetograph structure, and the allochthonous behavior is greatly dependent on the location within the drainage network at which it is assessed.

Scale-dependence of observational and modelling uncertainties in forensic flash flood analysis

The mismatch between the space–time scales of flash flood occurrence and those of the typical hydro-meteorological monitoring networks has stimulated the development of forensic flash flood analysis, which involves post-flood indirect peak discharge estimation in ungauged channels and flood response modelling driven by weather-radar rainfall estimates. However, both approaches are potentially affected by significant uncertainties. Assessment of scale dependence of such uncertainties is important to identify how uncertainty affecting forensic flash flood analysis increases with decreasing basin size. In this work, we apply the forensic methodology to the flash flood of November 18, 2013 in Sardinia (Italy). We introduce the ‘flash flood forensic consistency index’ as a tool to compare the probability distribution of peak discharge uncertainties from observational and model estimates, and to determine the scale effects of the forensic analysis concept. Uncertainties in field-based peak flow estimates are evaluated through a first-order error analysis of the Taylor-series approximation of the slope-conveyance method, whereas uncertainties in flash flood modelling are based on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology using a distributed hydrologic model. Results show no significant relationship between observational and modelling uncertainties, considered independently, and basin area and channel bed slope. Conversely, when considering the interaction between the two uncertainty distributions, a relationship arises between their degree of overlap and basin size. In particular, with decreasing basin area or increasing channel bed slope, the absolute relative bias between the estimated peak flow values increases more than their relative uncertainties, decreasing the consistency index. This calls for more robust approaches for the analysis of flash flood response in small-sized rugged-relief mountain basins, which are of high interest for flood risk management.

The role of storm movement in controlling flash flood response: an analysis of the 28 September 2012 extreme event in Murcia, southeastern Spain

AbstractFlash flooding is strongly modulated by the spatial and temporal variability in heavy precipitation. Storm motion prompts a continuous change of rainfall space-time variability that interacts with the drainage river system, thus influencing the flood response. The impact of storm motion on hydrological response is assessed for the 28 September 2012 flash flood over the semi-arid and medium-sized Guadalentín catchment in Murcia, southeastern Spain. The influence of storm kinematics on flood response is examined through the concept of ‘catchment-scale storm velocity’. This variable quantifies the interaction between the storm system motion and the river drainage network, assessing its influence on the hydrograph peak. By comparing two hydrological simulations forced by rainfall scenarios of distinct spatial and temporal variability, the role of storm system movement on the flood response is effectively isolated. This case study is the first to: (i) show through the catchment-scale storm velocity how storm motion may strongly affect flood peak and timing; and (ii) assess the influence of storm kinematics on hydrological response at different basin scales. In the end, this extreme flash flooding provides a valuable case study of how the interaction between storm motion and drainage properties modulate hydrological response.

The Policy Design on Preparation and Coping with Flash Flood Mekong River Basin Entrance Inequality Deduction Form Disaster: A Case Study of Mueang Nong Khai District Nong Khai Province, Thailand

The objective of this research is (1) to raise awareness and prepare for flash flooding among people in the Mekong region which promotes inequality reduction from disasters by using Muang Nong Khai District, Nong Khai Province as a model area, and (2) To develop a policy proposal by designing a joint policy for flash flood preparedness in the Mekong region to promote inequality reduction from disasters. This research is action research in conjunction with policy design focusing on brainstorming. Group discussions with in-depth interviews. The research results were found that: [A] People have a basic understanding of (1) the nature of the disaster, and (2) the experience of the flash flood disaster encountered by the WiangKhuk Sub-district people is about remembering the severity Looking at the floods that have been associated, but in terms of preparation, community leaders see together that they want to develop into a system and plan for a joint rehearsal in the future. [B] Flash flood response weaknesses are (1) Weaknesses for early warning, evacuation, and flash flood drills, (2) Weaknesses of flash flood plans for areas that have not yet been formally planned, And (3) weaknesses in communication. [C] The interesting common policy design guidelines that should be developed are (1) Flash flood knowledge development, (2) direction and coordination for emergency operations, (3) agreements that Formal and informal for flash flood response, (4) resource mobilization focused on the certainty of emergency work. [D] The policy recommendations are: (1) Appropriate policy guidelines for flash flood preparedness in the Mekong River Basin should include precautions, evacuation, flash flood drills, and community-level plans to tackle flash floods. (2) The public sector, civil society, and communities should jointly develop policies to prepare for flash floods, that is, to develop flash flood knowledge to keep up with the changing circumstances of the local context. (3) The key policy to deal with flash floods to help reduce inequality is to develop community capacity or community potential. This is a collaboration of community organizations, the government sector, civil society in the area, which together with driving a community-level response plan. [E] The operation recommendations include (1) the community must be the host to invite government organizations such as the Provincial Disaster Prevention and Mitigation and the Mekong Community Organization Council to drive community-level planning. (2) Organizing a network meeting on flash flood response such as communities, Provincial Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Agency, and Mekong Community Organization Council should hold meetings at least twice a year to understand the situation and implement measures to deal with flash floods in a timely manner. (3) Flash flood drills should be conducted at least once a year in order to build mutual learning among communities and networks in flash flood preparedness, it is also an analysis of the weaknesses each year and can be used to develop the capacity and capacity of the community to handle the flash flood in the future.

Integrated Hazard Modeling for Simulating Torrential Stream Response to Flash Flood Events

This study aims to monitor the flash flood response of Vidor/Wadore hill torrent in Pakistan by the integration of Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model PCSWMM (hydrologic) and HEC-RAS 5.x (hydraulic) models. The method leverages remote sensing and GIS derive estimates of measured and inferred parameters of Vidor rural catchment to quantify the flash flood events of the last four years: 2014–2017. The calibration of the PCSWMM is performed using the sensitivity-based radio tuning calibration (SRTC) tool. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and relative error (RE) values were found between 0.75–0.97, 0.94–0.98, and −0.22–−0.09 respectively. The statistical indicators prove the accuracy of PCSWMM for rural catchments. The runoff response of Vidor torrent is also analyzed for 0.5/12.7, 1.5/38.1, and 2.0/50.8-inch/mm rainfall hyetographs. The generated hydrographs are used to simulate 2D-module in HEC-RAS 5.x for floodplain demarcation in the piedmont area. The accuracy of the flood extent is analyzed using spatial overlay analogy in the ArcGIS environment by comparing simulated and historically available flood extents. The simulated flood extent shows 76% accuracy with historic flood extent. The impact of flash flood events shows wheat, maize, and fruit orchards are the most effected agriculture in piedmont area. The results revealed that the integration of hydrological, hydraulic, and geospatial modeling approaches can be used to model a full picture of catchment response during flash flood events.

Forensic analysis of flash flood response

The last decade has witnessed the development of methodologies for the post‐flood documentation of both hydrogeomorphological and social response to extreme precipitation. These investigations are particularly interesting for the case of flash floods, whose space–time scales make their observations by conventional hydrometeorological monitoring networks particularly challenging. Effective flash flood documentation requires post‐flood survey strategies encompassing accurate radar estimation of rainfall, field and remote‐sensing observations of the geomorphic processes, indirect reconstruction of peak discharges—as well eyewitness interviews. These latter can give valuable information on both flood dynamics and the related individual and collective responses. This study describes methods for post‐flood surveys based on interdisciplinary collaborations between natural and social scientists. These surveys may help to better understand the links between hydrometeorological dynamics and geomorphic processes as well as the relationship between flood dynamics and behavioral response in the context of fast space–time changes of flooding conditions.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4–5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

Flash Flood–Producing Storm Properties in a Small Urban Watershed

Abstract The structure and evolution of flash flood–producing storms over a small urban watershed in the mid-Atlantic United States with a prototypical flash flood response is examined. Lagrangian storm properties are investigated through analyses of the 32 storms that produced the largest peak discharges in Moores Run between January 2000 and May 2014. The Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting (TITAN) algorithm is used to track storm characteristics over their life cycle with a focus on storm size, movement, intensity, and location. First, the 13 June 2003 and 1 June 2006 storms, which produced the two largest peak discharges for the study period, are analyzed. Heavy rainfall for the 13 June 2003 and 1 June 2006 storms were caused by a collapsing thunderstorm cell and a slow-moving, low-echo centroid storm. Analyses of the 32 storms show that collapsing storm cells play an important role in peak rainfall rate production and flash flooding. Storm motion is predominantly southwest-to-northeast, and approximately half of the storms exhibited some linear organization. Mean storm total rainfall for the 32 storms displayed an asymmetric distribution around Moores Run, with sharply decreasing gradients southwest of the watershed (upwind and into the city) and increased rainfall to the northeast (downwind and away from the city). Results indicate urban modification of rainfall in flash flood–producing storms. There was no evidence that the storms split around Baltimore. Flood-producing rainfall was highly concentrated in time; on average, approximately 21% of the storm total rainfall fell within 15 min.

Initial soil moisture effects on flash flood generation – A comparison between basins of contrasting hydro-climatic conditions

Summary The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the importance of the initial soil moisture state for flash flood magnitudes. Four extreme events that occurred in different case study regions were analysed, one winter and one autumn flash flood in the Giofiros and Almirida catchments in Crete, and two summer floods in the Rastenberg catchment in Austria. The hydrological processes were simulated by the spatially distributed flash flood model Kampus. For the Crete cases Kampus model was calibrated against remotely sensed soil moisture while for the Austrian case the model was calibrated against observed runoff. Kampus model was then used to estimate the sensitivity of the stream flow peak to initial soil moisture. The largest of the events analysed (in terms of specific peak discharge) was found to have a sensitivity of less than 0.2% flood peak change per % soil moisture change while the smallest event had a sensitivity of more than 3% flood peak change per % soil moisture change. This suggests that initial soil moisture effects on the flash flood response probably depend on event magnitude rather than on the climate or region. Moreover, the Austrian catchment was found to exhibit a more nonlinear relationship between antecedent soil moisture and the peak discharge than the Cretan catchments which was explained by differences in the soil type.

A comparison of flash flood response at two different watersheds in Grenada, Caribbean Islands

Grenada is one of the susceptible areas to flooding. It is due to the high intensity of rainfall in each year and Grenada often hit by hurricanes and tropical storms. Flash-flood often occur in Grenada, specifically in two areas (Gouyave and St. John's watershed). Both of them have different characteristics. Gouyave watershed represents rural area, whereas St. John's watershed is an urban area. This paper aims to understand the flash-flood response of Gouyave and St. John' s watershed in different return periods. It is emphasized that urbanization is an important factor related to flash-flood. This paper uses quantitative methods with flood modelling using OpenLISEM software. Input data to develop flood modelling are DEM (Digital Elevation Model), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), initial soil moisture, surface roughness (Manning's n), and random roughness. The result shows that St. John's watershed is more sensitive and has higher response to flash-flood than Gouyave. St. John's watershed is more urbanized which decreases water infiltration. So, it increases the potential run-off and flash-flood events become more massive.

Characterising flash flood response to intense rainfall and impacts using historical information and gauged data in Britain

AbstractWe analyse chronologies of historical flash floods derived from searches of newspaper archives and other sources commencing before 1800 and recent gauged rainfall and stream flow data. Five key examples are chosen to illustrate specific features of flash floods. Pluvial flash floods arise from rainfall before it reaches a watercourse and may cause severe flooding of land and properties far from rivers. River flash floods, like pluvial floods, have the characteristic of rapid speed of response, a principal source of risk to life. Intense rainfall can generate ‘walls of water’ in river courses which can propagate long distances downstream and steepen, without upstream structural failure. Steeply rising wavefronts more commonly occur on steep upland catchments but, where intensities of extreme short period rainfall are sufficient, such wavefronts can also occur on lowland catchments. A definition of flash floods from intense rainfall, relevant to British landscape and climate, is proposed.

Recent human impacts and change in dynamics and morphology of ephemeral rivers

Abstract. Ephemeral streams induce flash-flood events, which cause dramatic morphological changes and impacts on population, mainly because they are intermittent and less predictable. Human pressures on the basin modify load and discharge relationships, inducing dormant instability on the fluvial system that will manifest abruptly during flood events. The flash-flood response of two ephemeral streams affected by load supply modification due to land use changes is discussed in a combination of geomorphic and hydraulic approaches. During the Rivillas flash flood, intensive clearing on the basin led to high rates of sediment flowing into an artificially straightened and inefficient channel. The stream evolved from a sinuous single channel into a shallow braiding occupying the entire width of the valley floor. Misfits and unsteady channel conditions increased velocity, stream power and sediment entrainment capacity and considerably magnified flood damage. Resulting morphosedimentary features revealed a close relationship with the valley floor post-flood hydraulic model, and pre-event awareness would have made it possible to predict risk-sensitive areas. In the second case, the Azohía stream, modelling of current pre-flood channel conditions make it possible to determine channel narrowing and entrenchment in the lower alluvial fan stretch. Abandonment of intensive agriculture, basin reforestation and urbanization diminish load contribution and trigger channel incision. This induces an increase in slope and velocity in the bankfull channel, producing renewed erosive energy and thus activating upstream propagation of incision and bank undermining. The absence of water-spreading dynamics on the alluvial fan in favour of confinement in a single channel produces an unstable dynamic in the system, also offering a false sense of stability, as long as no large magnitude floods occur. When modelling flood-prone areas and analysing hydraulic variables, it is important to detect possible anthropic disturbances that may affect basin load budgets in order to anticipate catastrophic consequences resulting from inappropriate fluvial management before the occurrence of an extraordinary event.

Rainfall Space-Time Organization and Orographic Control on Flash Flood Response: The Weisseritz Event of August 13, 2002

AbstractThis work provides an analysis of the Weisseritz 2002 flood event in Eastern Germany, which was characterized by intense upslope storm movement and associated orographic enhancement of precipitation. Examination of the event is based on the availability of weather radar observations and post-event surveys to document the peak runoff rates. The analysis is based on the use of a set of statistics that clarify the dependence existing between spatial rainfall distribution, basin morphology, and runoff response. The statistics provide a description of overall spatial rainfall organization at the catchment scale in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics and storm motion, as a function of the flow distance coordinates, i.e., distance to the outlet measured along the flow path. The statistics are based on the observation that runoff routing through branched channel networks imposes an effective averaging of spatial rainfall at equal flow distance, despite the inherent spatial variability. A spat...

Which rainfall spatial information for flash flood response modelling? A numerical investigation based on data from the Carpathian range, Romania

Summary This paper aims to clarify the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. This is obtained by applying a spatial rainfall metric which describes the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the flow travel time measured along the river network. The metric is based on the observation that runoff routing through branched channel networks imposes an effective averaging of spatial rainfall excess at equal travel time, in spite of the inherent spatial variability. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling, and in quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling. The investigation focuses on three extreme flash flood events occurred on the Carpathian range (Romania) in the period 2005–2007. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 and 167 km2. The analysis reported here shows that neglecting the spatial rainfall variability results in a considerable loss of simulation Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency in almost 30% of the cases (NS less than 0.8), with NS less than 0.6 in one of the cases. This provides a significant documentation of the influence of the spatial rainfall variability on runoff modelling for catchment size less than 160 km2. Moreover, it is shown that these rainfall statistics, used in combination, are able to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organisation which have significant impact on runoff simulation. An alternative rainfall spatial variability index, which is computed irrespective of flow travel time structure, provides a comparatively poor description of the influence of neglecting rainfall spatial variability on flood modelling. Overall, this implies that rainfall organisation measured along the river network by using the travel time coordinate may be a significant property of rainfall spatial variability when considering flood response modelling.

Influence of rainfall and soil properties spatial aggregation on extreme flash flood response modelling: An evaluation based on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy

High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km 2. Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km 2 catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km 2. However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small urban watersheds

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km 2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km 2 basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km 2 scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km 2 (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.

Surveying flash flood response in mountain streams

During the winter season of 2005, Southern California was besieged by a series of heavy precipitation events that caused widespread flash flooding, mud slides, debris flows, and significant damage. The first event began in December (28 December 2004 to 4 January 2005), triggered mudflows and flooding in the San Bernardino Mountains, and produced a record daily rainfall total for the city of Los Angeles.The second period of heavy rainfall occurred in January (7–12 January 2005) and was widespread, extending from west of Santa Barbara to the San Bernardino Mountains in San Bernardino County and to the south including San Diego County. The peak rainfall total during the January 2005 event exceeded 700 millimeters (30 inches) over the six‐day period. Impacts included the disastrous La Conchita landslide in Ventura County, which killed 10 people and destroyed or damaged over 35 homes.