The aim of this study is to monitor tool wear through recurrent direct observation, to automatically and optimally assess when it is really necessary to change tools. To achieve this goal, a hybrid prognosis algorithm is formulated to estimate cutting tools’ remaining useful life. Since cutting speed, and more generally process parameters, influences the rate of tool degradation, an adaptive prognosis strategy is presented on the basis of flank wear measurements through the application of a Particle Filter (PF) framework. The adaptability feature allows tracking changes in flank wear evolution. The idea is to fit available degradation curves of cutting tool flank land measurements, through the use of data-driven models, i.e. Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP) and cubic polynomials (P3). The Remaining Useful Life of the cutting tool is estimated together with its probability density function, by using a PF framework to adapt MLP weights (or P3 coefficients) along with online flank wear measurements. The devised algorithm was proven to adapt to wear trends from the field, obtained with cutting parameters not previously tested, making it suitable for a robust implementation. The approach was tested when trained upon a single run-to-failure, and validated upon four run-to-failures in different cutting conditions according to a cross-validation inspired technique. P3 was found to be more reliable (from the metrics perspective), whereas MLP allowed to be accurate with greater advance, offering a practical advantage. The proposed algorithm may also be adapted to integrate physical features, like specific force coefficients, with direct wear measurements.
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