Flammable Products Research Articles

Moisture sorption behavior of an epoxy-based structural adhesive and its impact on the mode I interlaminar fracture toughness of bonded joints in the oil and gas industry

Structural adhesives are widely used across industry sectors and, specifically in oil and gas, they appear as an alternative for structural joining instead of welding, to mitigate the risks arising from sparks in an environment with highly flammable products. In this sense, this article aims to evaluate the mechanical behavior of adhesive joints using the Double Cantilever Beam (DCB - to determine the GIC, mode I interlaminar fracture toughness) test before and after exposing these joints to severe environmental conditions, such as high humidity and high temperature. Also, three different surface treatments (manual sanding with abrasive sponge, solvent cleaning, and peel-ply application) of the adherend (carbon fiber/epoxy composite) are examined, as well as two different thicknesses of the adhesive layer (0.5 and 1.0 mm) to verify possible influences on the GIC behavior before and after conditioning. The results show that reducing manual surface treatment processes is a better option, to reduce the factors that cause greater dispersion in GIC values. In particular, cleaning the adherend with just isopropyl alcohol (solvent) before applying the adhesive yielded better GIC results among the tested techniques. Regarding thickness, the findings suggest that a greater thickness of the adhesive layer can lead to an increase in the plastic regions, enhancing the dissipation energy and improving the mode I interlaminar fracture toughness. Hygrothermal conditioning revealed the adverse effects of humidity on the adhesive, resulting in a 20–30 % reduction in GIC. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) analyses demonstrate that conditioning caused a notable reduction in the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the adhesive.

Synthesis and characterization of flame retardant unsaturated polyester-allyloxysilane resin for wood coatings

Fireproof coatings are the simplest, most efficient, and oldest method for protecting a wide range of flammable products, such as wood. Furthermore, surface ignition is the initial phase, so surface protection is essential to reduce fire propagation. Furthermore, delaying the spread of flames can help to save someone when a fire starts. This project synthesized flame-resistant resin starting from tetraallyloxysilane monomer as a halogen-free monomer, an intrinsic flame retardant co-curing agent. The following step synthesized polyester resin using terephthalic acid as a heat-resistant resin. Unsaturated polyester was used by bulk radical polymerization. FT-IR and 1H-NMR analysis showed the successful synthesis of the desired monomer and polymeric compound. The thermal degradation and flame retardancy of pure unsaturated polyester resin (UPE) and allyloxysilane-unsaturated polyester (AUPE) were investigated by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA/DTG/DSC). The burning test and the thermal stability of the coating layers were evaluated using standard UL 94. Physical properties of resins were evaluated using Heat Deflection Temp tests (HDT) ISO 75-A, ASTM 648, Hardness ASTM D2583, Volumetric shrinkage ASTM 3521, and Water absorption ASTM D570. The results of the tests show the successful synthesis and their flame retardant properties.

Efficient qualitative risk assessment of pipelines using relative risk score based on machine learning

Pipelines are observed one of the economic modes of transport for transporting oil, gas, and water between various locations. Most of the countries in the world transport petroleum and other flammable products through underground pipelines. The underground and aboveground pipelines are facing various damages due to corrosion, dents, and ruptures due to the environment and operational fluid conditions. The danger of leaks and accidents increases as a result of these damages. Pipelines must be evaluated on a regular basis to make sure they are fit for transmission. By evaluating the effects of damages and the possibility of catastrophic failures using a variety of techniques, pipeline integrity is controlled. Applying the relative risk scoring (RRS) technique, pipeline failures are predicted. One of the probabilistic techniques used to forecast risk based on an impartial assessment is machine learning. With different parameters like corrosion, leakage, materials, atmosphere, surface, earth-movements, above-ground and underground facilities, etc., the RRS method provides an accuracy of 97.5% in identifying the risk and gives a precise classification of risk, whether the pipeline has a high, medium, or low risk without any delay on the prediction compared with Naive Bayes, decision tree, support vector machine, and graph convolutional network.

Controlled pyrolysis of epoxy through highly silicone-branched structures to construct a compact porous char layer for ablation resistant coatings

Excellent mechanical and adhesive properties make epoxy an ideal coating, but speedy pyrolysis rate, excessive gas products, and low residual char lead to low ablation efficiency, limiting the application in long-time thermal protection environments. In this paper, through branching structure design including pre-curing and alcohol exchange reactions, highly silicon-branched epoxy resins with different degrees of branching and silicon contents were synthesized. And the synthesis of highly silicone-branched epoxy resins with different branching degrees was verified by FTIR and viscosity curves. Through the analysis of thermal stability and pyrolysis history, the influence of the branched structure and content of silicone on the ablation mechanism of epoxy resin was investigated in detail. With 90 phr addition, the char residue increased to 42.3 %, and the release of pyrolysis products including a variety of flammable products was significantly inhibited. Furthermore, under a torch test of 160 kW/m2, due to the deposition mechanism in the gas and liquid phases of degradation products, a compact porous char was constructed during the ablation. The linear ablative rate of EP-3M@90P was reduced by more than 60 %, and the maximum value of back-surface temperature decreased by 48 °C compared to EP. Besides, the silicone-branched epoxy resin exhibits excellent mechanical properties, and the impact strength of EP-3M@90P nearly doubled compared to EP. Predictably, the design of silicone-branched structures to achieve control of the degradation history of epoxy resins provides a superior method for the preparation of high-strength and high-toughness thermal protective coatings.

Preparation of a New Type of Expansion Flame Retardant and Application in Polystyrene

Polystyrene (PS) is a widely used building insulation material with good mechanical strength and strong temperature adaptability. However, PS itself is highly flammable and displays poor flame retardancy. At present, building fires caused by organic external wall thermal insulation materials prepared from PS represent a new fire hazard. In this study, the addition of an intumescent flame retardant (IFR) to reduce the flammability of PS was achieved. Using melamine (MEL), acrylonitrile-styrene-acrylate (ASA), and phytic acid (PA) as raw materials, a new type of flame retardant (MAP) was prepared by an electrostatic self-assembly method and was introduced to modify PS. Its effect on the flammability of PS composites was also investigated. The flammability of the PS composites was characterized using the limiting oxygen index (LOI) and vertical combustion. The effect of MAP on the morphology of the carbon layer formed from polymer decomposition was studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). By adding MAP to a PS/20%N-IFR flame-retardant composite, the flame-retardant property was significantly improved, the limiting oxygen index reached 37, and the vertical combustion reached a V-0 level. The fire performance index (FPI) of the PS/20%N-IFR composite reached 0.0054, which was significantly higher than that of the control PS (0.037) as determined by the cone calorimetry test. The SEM results showed that the introduction of MAP can increase the density of the carbon layer after combustion. The heat release rate for combustion was reduced. In addition, the mechanical properties of the PS/20%N-IFR composites were compared with those with no flame retardant. The tensile strength of the PS/20%N-IFR composite was 26.1 MPa and the elongation of the PS/20%N-IFR composite remained at 2.2%. The PS/20%N-IFR composite displayed better flame retardancy than the untreated material and good mechanical properties. The presence of MAP prevented the heat and oxygen transfer and interrupted the releasing of flammable products, thus protecting the PS from burning. This flame-retardant material may find broad applications in building insulation materials.

FLAME RETARDANCY OF COTTON FABRIC: EFFECT OF COATING OF POLYMERIC FILM CONTAINING PHOSPHORUS BY ADMICELLAR POLYMERIZATION

The vinyl phosphonic acid a phosphorus-based monomer has been polymerized on the cotton fabric with the aid of a cationic surfactant and 2, 2/ -azobis(2-methypropionamidine) dihydrochloride (AIBA) an initiator with the aim to improve flame retardancy of fabric for the fire safety. The thermal and burning behaviour of treated fabric are studied using thermogravimetry (TG) and limiting oxygen index flammability test (LOI), respectively. This treatment alters the path of degradation of treated cotton fabric sample (CF-PVPA-3) having 1.2% phosphorus, which increased the carbonaceous residue up to 28.2% at 600°C in an inert atmosphere at the expense of flammable products. The LOI value of 28.5 % of treated cotton fabric indicates the attainment of flame retardant property

Industrial Thermal Insulation Properties above Sintering Temperatures.

Processing highly flammable products, the oil and gas (O&G) industry can experience major explosions and fires, which may expose pressurized equipment to high thermal loads. In 2020, oil fires occurred at two Norwegian O&G processing plants. To reduce the escalation risk, passive fire protection may serve as a consequence-reducing barrier. For heat or cold conservation, equipment and piping often require thermal insulation, which may offer some fire protection. In the present study, a representative thermal insulation (certified up to 700 °C) was examined with respect to dimensional changes and thermal transport properties after heat treatment to temperatures in the range of 700 °C to 1200 °C. Post heat treatment, the thermal conductivity of each test specimen was recorded at ambient temperature and up to 700 °C, which was the upper limit for the applied measurement method. Based on thermal transport theory for porous and/or amorphous materials, the thermal conductivity at the heat treatment temperature above 700 °C was estimated by extrapolation. The dimensional changes due to, e.g., sintering, were also analyzed. Empirical equations describing the thermal conductivity, the dimensional changes and possible crack formation were developed. It should be noted that the thermal insulation degradation, especially at temperatures approaching 1200 °C, is massive. Thus, future numerical modeling may be difficult above 1150 °C, due to abrupt changes in properties as well as crack development and crack tortuosity. However, if the thermal insulation is protected by a thin layer of more robust material, e.g., passive fire protection to keep the thermal insulation at temperatures below 1100 °C, future modeling seems promising.

Preparation and electrochemical properties of polymer electrolyte containing lithium difluoro(oxalato)borate or lithium bis(oxalate)borate for Li-ion polymer batteries

A lithium difluoro(oxalato)borate (LiODFB) and lithium bis(oxalate)borate (LiBOB) salts in combination with an ionic liquid (N-methyl-N-propylpyrrolidinium bis(trifluoromethanesulphonyl)imide - MePrPyrNTf2 or 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulphonyl)imide - EtMeImNTf2), sulfolane (TMS) and poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVdF) were tested as polymer electrolytes (PEs) for Li-ion polymer batteries. Quaternary lithium salt (LiBOB or LiODFB) + ionic liquid (EtMeImNTf2 or MePrPyrNTf2) + PVdF + TMS polymer electrolytes were prepared by the casting technique. All the membranes are free-standing, flexible and transparent. Obtained PE films were investigated by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and the flammability test. Conductivity of the polymer electrolytes ranged from 0.52 to 3.21 mS cm−1 with the activation energy of 34.24 and 19.58 kJ mol−1, respectively. Decomposition of PE does not result in flammable products. The presence of large pores in these membranes ensures better lithium ion transport processes. The polymer electrolytes were used as electrolytes in Li|LiFePO4 and Li|Li cells which were tested applying EIS, cyclic voltammetry and the galvanostatic method. The electrochemical formation of SEI protects the Li| polymer electrolyte system against its aging (the total impedance evolution with time is much smaller). The LiFePO4 cathode with the membrane (24.7 wt% PVdF, 2.3 wt% LiODFB, 51.1 wt% EtMeImNTf2 and 21.9 wt% TMS) exhibited a good reversible capacity of 138 mAh g−1 and 120 mAh g−1 at high current densities (the C/2 and 1C rates).

Comparative Analysis of the Methods for Assessing the Thermal State of Civil Construction Facilities on the Example of Marine Stationary Platforms

Offshore oil, gas and other minerals are being actively developed in the world. Various hydraulic structures are used for the development of offshore fields, among which offshore fixed platforms should be singled out separately. These platforms are located in open sea areas and are exposed to heat from the sun. Solving the problem of assessing thermal effects on open metal structures of an offshore platform is important because even insignificant thermal stresses increase significantly in zones of crack-like defects, thus forming zones of local overvoltage. In addition, the determination of the temperatures of the walls of the tanks located on the platform is extremely important in determining the possibility of an outbreak of flammable liquids and other highly flammable substances. Previously, the author developed a technique that allows calculating the temperature of any cylindrical metal structures under the influence of solar radiation. In the work, the author provides a comparative analysis of his own methodology for assessing thermal effects and a method for determining the thermal state based on solving the heat balance equation. Based on the studies carried out, a conclusion is made about local overvoltages and the possibility of an outbreak of stored flammable products is assessed.

The preparation of starch derivatives reacted with urea-phosphoric acid and effects on fire performance of expandable polystyrene foams

A novel bio-based flame retardant, ammonium phosphate starch carbamates (APSC) was synthesized from starch, phosphoric acid and urea to achieve better thermal stability and char formation. Flame retardant expandable polystyrene foams (EPS) were prepared by coating method with APSC. The fire resistance evaluation of EPS composites by limiting oxygen index (LOI), vertical burning (UL-94) and cone calorimeter tests indicated that the addition of 47 wt.% of APSC enhanced the LOI from 17.6%–35.2%, with V-0 rating in UL-94, and decreased the peak heat release rate from 666 kW/m2 to 316 kW/m2. Moreover, the total smoke production was also sharply decreased from 70 m2 of pure EPS to 17 m2. By the presence of APSC, the substantial char formation prevented the heat and oxygen transfer, and interrupted the releasing of flammable products, thus protecting the EPS foam from burning.

Flammability and Explosion Risk of Post-explosion CH4/air and CH4/coal dust/air Mixtures

ABSTRACT The post-explosion gaseous environment in a coal mine influences the occurrence of secondary explosions. The flammable and explosion risk of post-explosion gases (CH4/air and CH4/coal dust/air mixtures) was evaluated. Explosion tests were carried out in a 20-L spherical explosion device under conditions with different air-fuel ratios. The composition and volume fraction of post-explosion gases were collected and analyzed. CO and H2 are two main possible flammable gas products with increasing initial fuel-air ratio. Unexpectedly, H2 was generated after a CH4/air explosion when the initial φ(CH4) ≥ 13%, in which condition the concentration of O2 was far from sufficient to oxidize CH4. The volume fraction of flammable gas in residual gases of CH4/coal dust/air mixture explosions was higher than that of CH4/air mixtures. It was found that the secondary explosion risk increased significantly when coal dust was involved in a methane explosion. The lower explosion limit (LEL) of post-explosion flammable gases decreased with the increasing mass concentration of coal dust. The flammable component of such post-explosion gases affected the secondary explosion.

Benefits of time dependent ignition probability models within the framework of Quantitative Risk Analysis

The evaluation of ignition probabilities is a fundamental step within the calculation of hazardous phenomena frequencies associated to a loss of containment of a flammable product (explosion, pool fire, jet fire). An error on this step can substantially change quantitative risk analysis conclusions.It is important to keep in mind that quantitative risk analysis are increasingly used to design facilities. In other words, facilities (equipment, structures and buildings) are designed to withstand accidental loads up to down a certain frequency. Three main approaches are commonly used for ignition probabilities calculation: tabulated values ??from databases, semi-quantitative methods or more or less sophisticated mathematical models.Nowadays, time dependent models are implemented to predict the evolution of the ignition probability as function of time. These models are particularly useful when combined with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) calculations to provide flammable gas volume build up as function of time. Thus, it is possible to predict the evolution of the delayed ignition probability as function of time. Main interest of these models is to propose a discretization by time intervals of the delayed ignition probability. This approach is particularly relevant for performing explosion risk analysis.

Review of vegetable oils behaviour at high temperature for solar plants: Stability, properties and current applications

With the possible depletion of oil resources and environmental considerations, vegetable oils are considered with great interest in high-temperature applications especially for solar plants. Many parameters affect vegetable oil stability, namely temperature, oxygen, moisture, duration of exposure to heat, etc. Conventional markers such as peroxide or free fatty acids do not always reliably indicate oil quality at high temperature. Evaluating the content of other degradation products such as polymers provides a better estimate. Reducing exposure to oxygen limits oil degradation. Vegetable oils have proven to be a favourable alternative to mineral oils in some applications, and several vegetable oils are commercially available. Their current use in solar cookers gives a good overview of their potential. Several reasons advocate for the use of vegetable oils in concentrating solar power plants: they are renewable resources, environmentally friendly, non-hazardous, highly available and less flammable products. Moreover, their thermophysical properties are similar, if not better, than those of thermal oils commonly used in solar plants. Despite these advantages, vegetable oils face some challenges, as for example their low oxidation stability. If the major challenge of using vegetable oils at high temperatures is their oxidation stability, the numerous environmental, economic and technological advantages make them innovative fluids for high temperature applications, particularly for solar applications.

Three Organic/Inorganic Nanolayers on Flexible Foam Allow Retaining Superior Flame Retardancy Performance Upon Mechanical Compression Cycles

The water-based deposition of flame retardant coatings on flexible polyurethane foams has attracted great interest among scientific community due to the great performances associated with this technology. Unfortunately, this approach results inefficient as it requires a high number of steps in order to achieve the desired properties. In this paper, we report the production of flame retardant foams by means of the simple deposition of only three nanoparticles containing layers. The composition and order of the deposited layer has been designed in order to provide specific flame retardant actions, targeting delayed release of polymer decomposition products to the gas phase, dilution of these flammable products with water and intumescent barrier formation. The morphology of the coated foams after the adsorption of each layer has been investigated by scanning electron microscopy, demonstrating the ability of each adsorbed layer to completely wrap the complex 3D structure of the foam. This three layers based coating produces a protective exoskeleton that is capable of self-extinguishing the flame in standard flammability tests, leaving the foam almost unaffected (final residue 98%). In forced combustion tests by cone calorimetry, treated foams showed considerably reduced combustion rates, with reduced peak of heat release rate (-50%) as well as consistent reduction in the smoke optical density (-51%) and the total smoke release (-34%). In addition, treated foams have been demonstrated to maintain the ability to self-extinguish the flame as well as reduced combustion rates and smoke production even after being subjected to 100 compression cycles.

Exposure to PBDEs associated with farm animal meat consumption

One of the ways to reduce the number of fires and the amount of damage caused by them is to use flame retardants (FRs). Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), like other FRs, have been used in a wide array of easily flammable products. As they are not chemically bonded with materials, PBDEs can be released from polymers into the environment. PBDEs can act as endocrine disruptors and affect neurological and thyroid activity. Although human intake of PBDEs is mainly through food, data about meat as a PBDE source and human exposure through diet are limited. The objective of the present study was to develop a comprehensive database of congener-specific PBDE concentrations in farm animal muscle and to characterize potential consumer exposure. For exposure assessment, two consumption scenarios were used for adults and children. The dietary exposure to PBDE congeners is based on the assumed portion size of 100 g of different meat species. Calculations for the participants were performed using food consumption data of the Statistical Yearbook (2015/2016). The intake of PBDEs was estimated as the median (P50) and the average for all kinds of tested meat. For health risk assessment, the margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used. MOE values were in range from 5 to 149 352 132. The obtained results indicate that concentrations of ten tested congeners (BDE-28,47,49,99,100,138,153,154,183,209) in different kinds of farm animal meat (cow, chicken, farm deer, horse, ostrich, pig, rabbit, sheep, turkey) are low and meat consumption does not pose a risk for human health.

Integrating Sustainability into the Optimization of Fuel Logistics Networks

Sustainable operation of logistics systems is a challenge for companies that import refined petroleum products since a complex network is required to deliver this flammable product to the final customers on a regular basis. The present study aims to provide a systematic approach for optimizing Fuel Logistics Network (FLN) accounting for not only transportation cost but also the processrelated risks and the relevant externalities. A Multi-Objective (M-O) Location-Inventory Problem (LIP) is first developed for the risk-aware optimization of logistics networks. The base model is then extended to a Location-Inventory-Routing Problem (LIRP) by integrating routing decision variables to account for the transportation-related risk and the externalities. An M-O evolutionary algorithm is finally adapted to solve the developed problems. The main contribution of the present study is, therefore, to highlight the non-financial operational factors, including safety, emissions and congestion, which have a direct impact on the sustainability of the fuel sector. The proposed mathematical models are tested in the case of a major Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) company in Korea. The final results indicate that decentralization can noticeably improve sustainability in the logistics network of the case study in terms of the safety level around the network nodes as compared to the current norms. It is also suggested that frequent and small-volume supply of fuel may be a feasible alternative to the full-tank replenishment of auto-gas stations. This can be achieved through consolidation of small-volume shipments into large shipments within a milk run transportation routine, or the use of low capacity trucks. Such a process design is likely to further improve the safety factor around the auto-gas stations.

Prioritizing the Causes of Fire and Explosion in the External Floating Roof Tanks

In the oil industry, many flammable products such as liquid hydrocarbons are usually stored in the atmospheric storage tanks. One type of these suitable tanks is the floating roof tanks. Among the floating roof tanks, external floating roof tanks are mainly used to store large quantities of petroleum products such as crude oil or condensate, gasoline, kerosene. The purpose of this study is prioritizing the causes of fire and explosion in the external floating roof tanks. In this study, firstly, the causes of fire and explosion of the external floating roof tanks were identified and then the obtained variables were scored by the process and safety specialists. In the next step, the causes were weighed and prioritized using the analytic network process method and Super Decisions software. The findings of the study identified 11 main criteria and 71 sub-criteria for fire and explosion of external floating roof tanks. Results revealed that several effective risk factors in the fire and explosion are natural disasters, static electricity, operational error, faulty firefighting system, maintenance error, piping rupture/leak, equipment/instrument failure, open flames, tank crack/rupture, runaway reactions, and sabotage, respectively. This study will help experts to identify the effective risk factors in fire and explosion in external floating roof tanks and their importance. Therefore, they can prioritize and implement the control measures to prevent fire and explosion incidents in external floating roof tanks.

Hydrophobic lipophilic modified cotton fabric for oil absorption applications

ABSTRACTIn this paper, the method of “hydrophobic modified coating” was used by introducing the low surface energy hydrophobic groups and silica nanoparticles on the surface of towel fabric. A hydrophobic lipophilic cotton fabric with biodegradability and super absorbent capacity was prepared by modifying the surface by silica nanoparticles. The surface structure was characterized by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The performance indexes such as oil absorption ratio and oil retention rate were tested and evaluated. The results revealed that the hydrophobicity and oil absorption properties of the cotton fabrics were significantly improved after hydrophobic modification. The water contact angle is 140° and the oil contact angle is 0°, showing strong hydrophobicity of the modified fabric. In addition, the modified cotton fabric had an oil retention rate of 84.6%, which can be avoided as secondary pollution during the recycling of saturated pure cotton fabric. Moreover, the cotton fabric with residual oil can be used for power generation fuel, high fever, high enthalpy, and flammable ashless products.

The degree of flammability for an artificial grass surface system

The paper presents a general overview of sport and floor lining products, such as artificial grass, which are used in residential premises and public utility buildings, as well as the hazards which ensue from the use of synthetic grass [1]. An outline was made of the requirements for the fire safety of civil engineering structures arising from their designation and usage type. The results were presented from studies conducted on four samples of synthetic grass with the main ingredients being polyethylene and polypropylene. An appraisal method was determined for flammable properties and flame spread on a horizontal sample subjected to a heat radiation flux gradient in a research chamber pursuant to PN EN ISO 9239- 1 [25] applicable for all types of floors. Based on the estimated value of critical heat radiation flux (KSP) below 3 kW/m2 and in addition to the flammability of products directly subjected to a flame according to PN EN ISO 11925-2 [27], a study was made of the suitability of selected samples of artificial grass by their categorisation to class Efl - i.e. easily flammable products. The classification of artificial grass selected for the needs of the studies, which has been verified in practice, and designated for use as decoration for gazebos, balconies, terraces and public utility facilities is only admissible in residential premises of type ZL IV.

Estimating the Flashover Probability of Residential Fires Using Monte Carlo Simulations of the MQH Correlation

An important indicator of fire hazard in residential fires is the occurrence of flashover in the room of fire origin. Since the variability of residential fire scenarios is large, many different cases must be considered to evaluate the hazard of a given flammable product. Efficiently predicting the occurrence of flashover of a naturally ventilated compartment is possible using the correlation of McCaffrey, Quintiere, and Harkleroad (MQH). The large variability in United States (U.S.) living room fire scenarios is characterized from available data and propagated through the MQH correlation using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. For the parameters, for which no relevant data was found, uniform probability distributions were assumed. The scenarios sampled in the MC simulations generally fell within the range of scenarios for which the MQH correlation has been validated. Flashover probabilities were estimated for fires up to 5 MW in heat release rate (HRR) and up to 8 min in duration. It was found that fires with HRRs less than 400 kW have a flashover probability of less than 0.01% regardless of their duration. Typical furniture fires were used as example cases, and it was predicted that a three seat upholstered sofa with a peak HRR of 2.15 MW has a 90% chance of flashing over a randomly chosen U.S. living room. The results of a global sensitivity analysis indicates that the fire location parameter and the vent opening width are the most important parameters affecting the prediction of the occurrence of flashover in U.S. living rooms. The methodology presented is generalizable, and the results can be readily improved by the collection of more data and the use of higher fidelity fire models.