Fixed Income Markets Research Articles

High-Frequency Trading in Bond Returns: A Comparison Across Alternative Methods and Fixed-Income Markets

A properly performing and efficient bond market is widely considered important for the smooth functioning of trading systems in general. An important feature of the bond market for investors is its liquidity. High-frequency trading employs sophisticated algorithms to explore numerous markets, such as fixed-income markets. In this trading, transactions are processed more quickly, and the volume of trades rises significantly, improving liquidity in the bond market. This paper presents a comparison of neural networks, fuzzy logic, and quantum methodologies for predicting bond price movements through a high-frequency strategy in advanced and emerging countries. Our results indicate that, of the selected methods, QGA, DRCNN and DLNN-GA can correctly interpret the expected bond future price direction and rate changes satisfactorily, while QFuzzy tend to perform worse in forecasting the future direction of bond prices. Our work has a large potential impact on the possible directions of the strategy of algorithmic trading for investors and stakeholders in fixed-income markets and all methodologies proposed in this study could be great options policy to explore other financial markets.

Things Fall Apart: Fixed Income Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis

This article provides a critical appraisal of the March 2020 crisis in fixed income markets. We synthesize the main events, characterize what appears to be an emerging consensus on what caused the market breakdowns, summarize how the Federal Reserve's actions contributed to its resolution, and discuss potential lasting effects of the crisis. This review makes clearer the fragilities and interconnectedness that characterize the current fixed income market structure and their effects on liquidity provision. We argue that the current market structure, combined with the continued growth of Treasury markets, corporate and municipal bond markets, and particularly, mutual funds, raises the specter that periodic instability may remain a feature of fixed income markets.

The Long Term Comovement Between Sukuk And Conventional Fixed Income Markets

Sukuk markets have made significant progress both in terms of market volumes and international awareness in recent years. These financial products are specially designed for investors who avoid interest gain. On the other hand, it is an ongoing issue in the literature whether these markets are a useful alternative for conventional fixed income investors as well. Our main purpose is to explore sukuk market as an investment alternative for conventional fixed income market investors' points of view. Since the integration of assets is one of the key criteria for portfolio investments, this study investigated the long-term comovements between sukuk and other fixed-income indexes via Johansen and Engle-Granger cointegration technique. To proxy international fixed income portfolio, international bond indexes which are prepared by FTSE (Financial Times Stock Exchange Group) are employed. Besides, the vector error correction model is also applied to deepen the results. According to the findings, there is a limited causality in the long run between sukuk markets and conventional bond markets. This can make international sukuk assets highly beneficial diversification alternative to conventional bond portfolios. The study aims to contribute to the literature by examining the benefits of sukuk markets as an investment alternative to conventional, wide-range fixed income markets.

Leverage and Margin Spirals in Fixed Income Markets during the COVID-19 Crisis

For a two-week period in mid-March 2020, government bond markets experienced uncharacteristic turbulence, sometimes selling off sharply in risk-off episodes when they would normally attract safe haven flows.Evidence in the US Treasury market points to forced selling of treasury securities by investors who had attempted to exploit small yield differences through the use of leverage.Even though government bonds are safe assets, large holdings by leveraged investors may detract from orderly market functioning and may necessitate interventions by the central bank.

Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets

An emerging literature relies on an index of limits of arbitrage in fixed-income markets. We analyze the benefits of an index that is model-free, robust and intuitive. This new index strengthens the evidence that limits of arbitrage proxy for risks priced in the cross-section of returns. Trading simulations show that the new index improves identification of limits of arbitrage because it bypasses a noisy estimation step. Relative value indices in the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland and Canada exhibit strong commonality and high correlations with local volatility and funding conditions. The indices are updated regularly and available publicly.

Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of seven U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and January 2015. We find statistically significant evidence of such behavior in six of these spreads. Mild explosivity migrates from short-term funding markets to more volatile medium- and long-term markets during the Great Financial Crisis. For some markets, we statistically validate the conjecture, originally suggested by Gorton (2009a,b), that the financial panic of 2007 initially migrated from segments of the ABX market to other U.S. fixed income markets.

Local Currency Bond Returns in Emerging Economies and the Role of Foreign Investors

Foreign investors play a key role in sovereign bond markets in emerging market economies (EMEs), in part because their portfolio flows are sensitive to bond returns and are therefore pro-cyclical in nature. This note discusses the implications of the framework proposed by So et al (2019), which incorporates the risk that arises from the portfolio performance and flows of actively managed bond funds. When the framework is applied to the data, using local currency sovereign bonds of 16 EMEs, preliminary calculations show that local currency sovereign bonds that positively covary with the returns of active funds receive risk premia as compensations for active fund risk. Furthermore, and in line with theory, the price of this risk increases when bond funds experience outflows and the exposure to active funds risk increases with the heightened price of risk. This double effect helps explain why spikes in returns of some EME local currency bonds can be especially large. These results demonstrate how the portfolio performance and flows of actively managed funds help transmit shocks across EMEs. Full Publication: Asia-Pacific Fixed Income Markets: Evolving Structure, Participation and Pricing

A Survey of the Microstructure of Fixed-Income Markets

In this article, we survey the literature that studies fixed-income trading rules and outcomes, including Treasury securities, corporate and municipal bonds, and structured credit products. We compare and contrast the microstructure and regulation of fixed-income markets with equity markets. We highlight the nature of over-the-counter trading in the face of search costs and the associated slow evolution of electronically facilitated intermediation. We discuss the databases available to study fixed-income microstructure, as well as measures and determinants of trading costs, and the important roles dealer networks and limited transparency play. We also highlight unresolved issues.

A Survey of the Microstructure of Fixed-Income Markets

This paper surveys the literature that studies fixed-income trading rules and outcomes, including Treasury securities, corporate and municipal bonds, and structured credit products. We compare and contrast the microstructure and regulation of fixed-income markets with equity markets. We highlight the nature of over-the-counter trading in the face of search costs and the associated slow evolution of electronically-facilitated intermediation. We discuss the databases available for the study of fixed-income microstructure, as well as measures of trading costs and the determinants thereof, and the important roles of dealer networks and limited transparency. We also highlight unresolved issues.

SEC’s Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee discusses bond market liquidity in its inaugural meeting

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to summarize the January 11, 2018, Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee’s (“FIMSAC”) inaugural meeting held at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).Design/methodology/approachThis paper discusses the various topics covered at the inaugural FIMSAC meeting including the exploration of a variety of bond market liquidity issues, including the metrics for analyzing liquidity in the bond market and what these metrics mean for liquidity and dealer intermediation, electronic trading, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), transparency and potential policy responses to increase liquidity and the efficiency of the market.FindingsThe FIMSAC Chairman proposed the creation of subcommittees addressing modernization, fixed income ETFs and transparency.Originality/valueThis paper contains information on important topics raised by the fixed income market participants to the SEC and is helpful to all entities participating in the fixed income markets.

The Impact of the Employment Report and Forecasts Thereof on Fixed-Income Markets

The authors examine the impact that the monthly Employment Situation Report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the analyst forecasts of that report have on the U.S. Treasury securities market. Surprise increases in total non-farm payroll employment lead to increases in interest rates (especially one- to five-year rates), and surprise decreases lead to smaller declines in interest rates. This interest rate reaction is conditioned on the level of analyst uncertainty about the coming report. Interest rates also react to subsequent revisions of the payroll employment figures. Analyst forecasts as compiled by Bloomberg are unbiased forecasts of the BLS numbers and correctly anticipate most employment level changes. Moreover, there is evidence that the markets react to these forecasts prior to the BLS release. The authors also find that the release of the employment report lowers market uncertainty about future interest rates.

Artificial Neural Networks in Fixed Income Markets for Yield Curve Forecasting

The yield curve is the centrepiece in bond markets, a massive asset class with an overall size of USD100 trillion that remains relatively under-investigated using machine learning. This paper is the first comprehensive study using artificial neural networks in the context of yield curve forecasting. Specifically, two models were used for forecasting the European yield curve: multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron (MLP), at five forecasting horizons, from next day to 20 days ahead. Five variants of the MLP were analysed with different sets of features: target to predict (univariate); the most relevant features; all generated features; and the former two incorporating synthetic data generated by the linear regression model. Additionally, two different techniques of multitask learning were employed: simultaneous modelling and transformation into multiple single task learning. The results show that considering all forecasting horizons, the MLP using the most relevant features achieved the best results and the addition of synthetic data tends to improve accuracy. Furthermore, different targets and forecasting horizons resulted in different relevant features, reinforcing the importance of custom-built models. In the two multitask learning methodologies no clear differentiation could be demonstrated, and several explaining factors are identified. Overall, the outcome is very encouraging for the development of better forecasting systems for fixed income markets.

Desirable Portfolios in Fixed Income Markets: Application to Credit Risk Premiums

An arbitrage portfolio provides a cash flow that can never be negative at zero cost. We define the weaker concept of a “desirable portfolio” delivering cash flows with negative risk at zero cost. Although these are not completely risk-free investments and subject to the risk measure used, they can provide attractive investment opportunities for investors. We investigate in detail the theoretical aspects of this portfolio selection procedure and the existence of such opportunities in fixed income markets. Then, we present two applications of the theory: one in analyzing market integration problem and the other in gauging the credit quality of defaultable bonds in a portfolio. We also discuss the model calibration and provide some numerical illustrations.

Too little, too late? Role of credit rating agencies in the Amtek AUTO default

Subject area Fixed Income markets, Financial Markets and Institutions. Study level/applicability This case can be used in a postgraduate finance course such as an MBA and executive program for courses such as Fixed Income Markets and Financial Markets and Institutions. Case overview In late August 2015, the sudden downgrade and eventual default of Amtek AUTO Ltd (Amtek) on its debentures upset mutual fund investors and regulators. Questions were raised about the credit rating agencies and their lack of timely action as well as about the independent credit analysis followed by fund houses to protect the interests of investors. One such investor, Suresh Nair, decided to gather all possible available information on Amtek to determine whether it was sheer negligence on the part of all parties involved or if Amtek was in fact in a situation of sudden distress. The case seeks to highlight the credit analysis process, while looking out for red flags to identify potential default or financial stress in a company. Expected learning outcomes To understand the credit analysis process through a fundamental analysis process. To analyze and interpret the financial position of the company through various financial ratios. Identifying “red flags” while evaluating a potential credit that pose as “risks” to credit assessment. Understanding the role and relevance of credit rating agencies in the bond market. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance

Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of eight U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and April 2018. We find statistically significant evidence of mildly explosive dynamics in six of these spreads, two of which are short/medium-term mortgagerelated spreads. We show that the time intervals characterized by instability that we estimate from these yield spreads capture known episodes of financial and economic distress in the U.S. economy. Mild explosiveness migrates from short-term funding markets to medium- and long-term markets during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09. Furthermore, we statistically validate the conjecture that the initial panic of 2007 migrated from segments of the ABX market to other U.S. fixed income markets in the early phases of the financial crisis. JEL Classification: G01, G12, C58, C44 Keywords: Finance, investment analyss, fixed income markets, yield spreads, mildly explosive behavior.

Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets

Portfolio selection strategy for fixed income markets with immunization on average

In this paper, we develop a portfolio optimization method to maximize the performance of a fixed income portfolio. To achieve this aim, we define a two-step optimization problem where we firstly manage the immunization risk and then we maximize the portfolio wealth in a reward–risk framework. In the first optimization step, we create funds of bonds with constant immunization measure over time, and we propose an innovative immunization measure for bond portfolio management that leads to a more flexible immunization approach and a better trade-off between reward and risk. In the second optimization step, maximizing two performance measures on these baskets of bonds we obtain portfolio strategies that consider different investors’ profiles. An empirical application to the US fixed income market during 2002–2012 period is provided. Applying the portfolio optimization method to different bond classes, we compare the results with an equity index. This ex-post analysis indicates the benefits of the proposed portfolio strategy in outperforming the benchmark and proves that capital flows to safer markets during crisis periods.

Hedging in Fixed Income Markets

We study feedback from the risk of outstanding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the level and volatility of interest rates. We incorporate supply shocks resulting from changes in MBS duration into a parsimonious equilibrium dynamic term structure model and derive three predictions that are strongly supported in the data: (1) MBS duration positively predicts nominal and real excess bond returns, especially for longer maturities; (2) the predictive power of MBS duration is transitory in nature; and (3) MBS convexity increases interest rate volatility, and this effect has a hump-shaped term structure.

Measuring Market Liquidity in US Fixed Income Markets: A New Synthetic Indicator

We propose a new synthetic liquidity indicator that summarises the data on a broad set of market liquidity measures both for sovereign and corporate fixed income markets in the US. Our index is based on 17 variables that cover the main dimensions of market liquidity. The methodology used to calculate the index consists of two steps. First, a transformation of the individual liquidity measures is made, based on the methodology proposed by Hollo et al. (2012) for the CISS (Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress). The transformed variables are then weighted using a principal component analysis. The indicator shows that liquidity in US fixed income markets has been impaired after the global financial crisis, mainly as a result of weaker liquidity conditions in US Treasury markets, whereas those in the corporate debt market remained stable.

Prospect of Sukuk in the Fixed Income Market: A Case Study on Kuwait Financial Market

Regional Islamic capital market for fixed income securities has been growing steadily and noticeably as Sukuk has been emerging as an alternative and important instrument to conventional debt instrument in the fixed income market. Although the country has largest muslim population, Kuwait’s fixed income capital market is still dominated by conventional debt instruments. Further, the central bank of Kuwait has been the major issuer of the conventional bond and not an issuer of Sukuk. The small number of sukuk issues in Kuwait compared to bonds is due to lack of clear law and regulation, shortage of expertise in structuring sukuk, and absence of government issued sukuk. Among the sukuk issued in Kuwait, only one sukuk has defaulted and has gone through restructuring during the period of global financial crisis when many financial institutions have failed around the world. This should be taken positively as a prospect of sukuk as an alternative to bond as viable fixed income security. We believe that the role of central bank is key to the prospect of flourishing Islamic financial instruments such as sukuk in Kuwait as well as in the global fixed income markets.