The Impact of the Employment Report and Forecasts Thereof on Fixed-Income Markets

Abstract

The authors examine the impact that the monthly Employment Situation Report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the analyst forecasts of that report have on the U.S. Treasury securities market. Surprise increases in total non-farm payroll employment lead to increases in interest rates (especially one- to five-year rates), and surprise decreases lead to smaller declines in interest rates. This interest rate reaction is conditioned on the level of analyst uncertainty about the coming report. Interest rates also react to subsequent revisions of the payroll employment figures. Analyst forecasts as compiled by Bloomberg are unbiased forecasts of the BLS numbers and correctly anticipate most employment level changes. Moreover, there is evidence that the markets react to these forecasts prior to the BLS release. The authors also find that the release of the employment report lowers market uncertainty about future interest rates.