Fixed Effects Logit Model Research Articles

고정효과 로짓모형을 통한 국내 경마 적중 요인에 대한 탐색적 연구 - 과천경마장 사례를 중심으로

This paper analyzes main factors to exert effects on horse-race winning which has not been identified in Korea, discussing people’s predictor variables and winning system. Fixed effects logit model is used to estimate impacts of institutional variables such as rating and weighting decided by horse racing authority, subjective variables constructed by betting people, and other information variables about horses and betting environments, using panel data from 2015 to 2018. Estimation results show that people make quite sophisticated estimation of their betting, contrary to popular knowledge in Korea, and that rating and weighting decrease differences of horses’ running abilities which is the well-known policy of horse racing authority in Korea to attract people’s interest in a tighter competition at the same time. However, the information asymmetry problem caused from long shot anomaly needs to be resolved by more information offering by winning function and smart data discussed in this paper. And to conclude, empirical results of winning function estimation offer people in track with detailed implications for more rational behavior and present possibility to raise the efficiency of horse race betting market smartly.

Financial Crisis, Confidence in Financial Markets and Participation in Private Pension Plans in Germany

The financial crisis of 2008/2009 has not only left its mark on the value of retirement savings, but also on savings and investment behaviour. It has led to a loss of confidence in financial markets and its main protagonists. However, trust is a key mechanism for savings and investment decisions. We illustrate the loss of trust by looking at the number of pension plans purchased in the years following the financial crisis. The paper is based on data of the study on ‘Life courses and old-age provisions’ (LeA, Lebensverläufe und Altersvorsorge). The data was gathered in 2016 and provides information on the life histories of people living in Germany who were born between 1957 and 1976, as well as on pension entitlements in all three pillars of the German pension system. The analysis concentrates on so-called Riester pension plans, the most dynamic private pension scheme in Germany. We estimate a panel fixed-effects logit model to examine whether the financial crisis had an impact on the participation in Riester pension plans. Results show that instead of a shock effect relating to the crisis years, we see a negative linear effect following the crisis.

MCMC conditional maximum likelihood for the two-way fixed-effects logit

. We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Conditional Maximum Likelihood (MCMC-CML) estimator for the two-way fixed-effects logit model for dyadic data, typically used in network analyses. The proposed MCMC approach, based on a Metropolis algorithm, allows us to overcome the computational issues of evaluating the probability of the outcome conditional on nodes in- and out-degrees, which are sufficient statistics for the incidental parameters. Under mild regularity conditions, the MCMC-CML estimator converges to the exact CML one and is asymptotically normal. Moreover, it is more efficient than the existing pairwise CML estimator. We study the finite sample properties of the proposed approach by means of an extensive simulation study and three empirical applications, where we also show that the MCMC-CML estimator can be applied to logit models for binary panel data with both subject and time-fixed effects. Results confirm the expected theoretical advantage of the proposed approach, especially with small, concentrated, and sparse networks or with rare events in panel data.

Renewable energy financing by state investment banks: Evidence from OECD countries

While governments increasingly employ state investment banks (SIBs) to finance renewable energy projects, whether these institutions’ actual behavior aligns with expectations remains uncertain. Here, we assess the predictors of SIB involvement in renewable energy deals in OECD countries using a fixed-effects logit model. Our results show greater SIB involvement in higher-risk technologies such as offshore wind and biomass but decreased activity once domestic markets for solar photovoltaics mature. Contrary to what the literature suggests, however, SIBs show no increased involvement in first projects using novel technology, unlike other public-sector lenders, and less involvement in smaller renewable energy deals. The evidence on whether SIBs mobilize private sector lenders or crowd them out favors the former but remains equivocal. We conclude by discussing the implications for policymakers regarding the mandates and guidelines for SIBs.

The effects of attitudes, norms, and perceived control on the adaptation of elderly individuals and individuals with chronic health conditions to heatwaves

BackgroundIn this study, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to examine the determinants of the heat protection intentions and actions of elderly individuals and individuals with chronic health conditions. This is an important topic as understanding the motivations for adapting behaviours to heatwaves can inform the design of warning systems and awareness campaigns by public health authorities to mitigate the adverse effects of weather hazards on health.MethodsThree phone surveys were conducted in 2015 and 2016 to collect data on a large sample of individuals with increased vulnerability to heatwaves in the city of Longueuil, Canada. Prospective and panel fixed effects logit models for ordinal variables were used to analyse the factors that influenced heat protection intentions and actions.ResultsAttitudes, norms, and perceived control have positive effects on intentions to adopt heatwave protection actions and intentions on the effective adoption of these preventive measures. The hypothesis according to which perceived control moderates the effect of attitudes and norms on intentions is rejected. In addition, the results suggest that elderly individuals are less likely than individuals in other age groups to adopt heat protection actions. Health conditions related to vulnerability to hot weather do not seem to significantly improve the adoption of heat protection behaviours.ConclusionsThe adoption of heatwave protection actions can be improved by public health interventions that influence attitudes and social norms related to heat protection behaviours and facilitate their adoption.

Effects of School Physical Education on the Exercise Habits of Children and Adolescents: An Empirical Analysis Using China Health and Nutrition Survey Data.

Since 2002, the Chinese Ministry of Education has conducted reform in the physical education (PE) curriculums of schools in China, with a focus on shifting from sports skills to regular participation in physical activity (PA) and promoting health. The aim of the study, therefore, is to examine the effects of school PE on the exercise habits of children and adolescents in China over time. Data based on 5941 observations of 3708 individuals aged 6 to 17 were collected from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) for the period 2004 to 2015. The data were analyzed using the fixed-effect Logit model and the random-effect Tobit model. The likelihood of exercising outside of school is 20.2% higher for students who have school PE than those who do not. Our study found that increasing the duration of PE at school by 100%, increases the duration of out-of-school PA by 22.3%. The variety of the types of sports schools offer encourages students to participate in out-of-school physical activity. The likelihood of students exercising outside of school increases by 5.6% when 1 more exercise type is provided in school PE. In addition, soccer, basketball, badminton, and volleyball education increases students' participation in after-school exercises. Soccer and basketball education, in particular, improves the duration of after-school PA. To form exercise habits in children and adolescents, we encourage the promotion of a variety of physical activities in schools, especially team sports such as soccer and basketball.

Assessing public transport passenger attitudes towards a dynamic fare model based on in-vehicle crowdedness levels and additional waiting time

Public Transport (PT) provides passenger mobility and contributes to sustainable transportation. To achieve this a PT system must provide continuous accessible service and connections for passengers. PT reliability is considered a major obstacle to growing its market share. Current solutions primarily address travel time reliability through methods like priority lanes and traffic signal priority. Dwell time reliability improvement, in turn, can be achieved by the use of smart cards which reduce the variability in boarding and alighting times. Another factor affecting reliability is in-vehicle crowdedness which causes delays and increases dwell time variability. To mitigate crowdedness, we propose a monetary approach that dynamically changes the fare based on the in-vehicle crowdedness level in a manner similar to congestion pricing. This approach would shift some passengers from boarding the over-crowded vehicle to waiting for the next, less crowded vehicle, while compensating them for the additional waiting. Passengers unwilling to wait might pay a penalty if the additional waiting time is reasonable. To assess the attitude of passengers towards a dynamic fare model, a stated preference questionnaire was developed to assess the factors that affect the choice of whether or not to board an over-crowded vehicle. Based on panel data and the fixed effect logit model it was revealed that the higher the waiting time, the lower the willingness to board the next vehicle. However, monetary schemes (penalties or discounts) increased the willingness to wait and board the next vehicle. Moreover, the willingness to wait was higher when a penalty was introduced compared to a discount, which is in line with the prospect theory. The results suggest that it is possible to construct a dynamic fare model that using data on vehicle crowdedness levels and waiting times obtained from advanced data collection systems, which is integrated within a mobile payment application. This approach could reduce crowdedness and increase reliability.

Student loan debt and U.S. married households’ stock investment decisions

<p style="text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:10.5pt"><span style="font-family:等线"><span dir="ltr" lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Cambria",serif"><span style="color:black">This study aims to examine the effects of student loan debt on the decisions of U.S. married households to invest in stocks located in non-retirement accounts. Using longitudinal datasets from the 2011 to 2017 U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a fixed effects logit model, the results show mixed findings. The presence of student debt decreases the probability that married households will own stocks, but the amount of student debt does not show a statistically significant effect. The findings suggest that the incidence of student debt raises the perception of liquidity constraints and debt burden among married households.</span></span></span></span></p>

Analysis of depressive symptoms between formal and informal workers in South Africa during COVID-19 crisis

ABSTRACT This study examines differences in depressive symptoms between informal and formal workers in South Africa during the COVID-19 lockdown period. The analysis focuses on the June to October 2020 period, which was characterised by the easing of lockdown regulations from level 3 to level 1. Using the NIDS-CRAM wave 2 and 3 survey data, the study estimates a standard logit and a fixed effects logit model to account for worker’s unobserved heterogeneity. Results show that the likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms increased across all workers between June and October. However, there were no statistically significant differences between informal and formal workers’ mental health over this period. Additional results show that workers living in urban areas and households suffering from hunger had a higher risk of experiencing depressive symptoms. Based on these results, the study recommends for government strategies that curb the rise in depressive symptoms among all workers.

Conditional inference and bias reduction for partial effects estimation of fixed-effects logit models

We propose a multiple-step procedure to compute average partial effects (APEs) for fixed-effects static and dynamic logit models estimated by (pseudo) conditional maximum likelihood. As individual effects are eliminated by conditioning on suitable sufficient statistics, we propose evaluating the APEs at the maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved heterogeneity, along with the fixed-T consistent estimator of the slope parameters, and then reducing the induced bias in the APEs by an analytical correction. The proposed estimator has bias of order O(T^{-2}), it performs well in finite samples and, when the dynamic logit model is considered, better than alternative plug-in strategies based on bias-corrected estimates for the slopes, especially in panels with short T. We provide a real data application based on labour supply of married women.

패널자료를 활용한 대학생 중도탈락 결정요인 분석

Purpose - This paper analyzes the student determinants of college non-completion and estimates the effects of each determinant on college non-completion. Design/methodology/approach – We use student panel data from a large Korean university from 2011 to 2021. Our results are from estimation of fixed-effects logit model. Findings – The results show that grade point average, participation in extracurricular activities, the number of counseling sessions with teachers, and financial aid are the main determinants of college non-completion. Academic probation, which is defined as any person who has a cumulative grade point average below a one point seven five, increases the non-completion rate by 2.6 percentage points and an one-point rise in extracurricular activities index reduces the rate by 0.1 percentage points. The effects of each determinant are heterogeneous across student sub-groups which are separated by gender, nationality, and academic discipline. Research implications or Originality - Tailored support programs for academically discouraged students that incorporate student characteristics and backgrounds are necessary to increase college completion rates and degree attainment.

패널자료를 이용한 밀레니얼 세대의 주택점유형태 결정요인 분석

This study examines the determinants of housing tenure choice decisions of Millennials.
 Using KLIPS panel data from 2014 to 2020, a correlated random effects probit model and a fixed effects logit model were estimated to control for endogeneity problem associated with time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Estimation results showed that net wealth, relative housing cost, marital status of household heads were major determinants of housing tenure choice decisions. Permanent income, one of key variables on the housing tenure choice, was not significant, indicating that net wealth rather than income is more important to homeownership decisions of Millennials. However, the effect of net wealth on the probability of home owning was estimated to decrease over the observation period because the increase in net wealth could not catch up with the rise of housing price. A sharp decrease of the effect of net wealth on the probability of home owning in recent years was attributable to a dramatic increase in housing price and more stringent mortgage regulations.

Exploring heterogeneity of national health insurance scheme enrolment among persons in the informal sector.

The Ghanaian government began implementing the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2005, anchored on the universal health coverage principle. However, informal sector workers contribute to the low enrolment into the scheme. This paper examines the factors that influence enrolment status in Ghana's NHIS among individuals in the informal sector. The study employed the fixed-effects logit model, using the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey datasets. The findings revealed that gender, age, education, marital status, household size, physical activity, income, savings and subjective social welfare determine enrolment decisions of persons in the informal sector. Drivers of NHIS enrolment for male and female household heads were secondary education and household size. Heterogeneously, age, Junior High School education, married, physical activity, subjective social welfare and savings influenced only male-headed households' enrolment status. The study shows differences in enrolment status among rural and urban residents, as age, education, marital status, household size, and physical activity influenced rural residents, while for urban inhabitants', savings determined their NHIS enrolment decisions. However, gender, obesity, income and subjective social welfare predicted enrolment decisions for rural and urban residents. Finally, two variables, gender (male) and physical activity predicted the NHIS enrolment decision among the poor, whereas subjective social welfare and savings influenced the wealthiest enrolment decisions. For Ghana to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of universal health coverage, the study recommends enhanced public education on NHIS benefits among informal workers to promote enrolment.

Household access to electricity and non-farm business in rural India: A panel data analysis

The role of electricity in formation and performance of rural non-farm entrepreneurial ventures is widely debated. This study aims to understand how, in India, access to household electricity impacts rural households' decisions to take up entrepreneurial activities, operated within household premises. A panel dataset of nearly twenty thousand rural households carried out in the years 2004–05 and 2011–12 has been used to explore the impact of access to electricity on participation in rural non-farm enterprises using panel fixed-effects logit models. Further, the role of electricity access on earnings of non-farm enterprises is studied using Heckman two-stage selection models. It is concluded that electricity has a positive effect on the households' decision to establish non-farm enterprises operating within home premises. It is also found that, in the presence of the household electricity access, the income from business increases by 35.2% on an average. Upon extending the analysis to different groups of states, similar outcomes are observed for relatively rich states, states with relatively higher levels of rural electrification and states with relatively lower rates of rural electrification. In case of relatively poorer states, access to electricity enables a household to participate in the non-farm business sector but does not seem to have a statistically significant impact on their business income.

Impact of COVID-19 travel-restriction policies on road traffic accident patterns with emphasis on cyclists: A case study of New York City

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, travel-restriction policies widely adopted by cities across the world played a profound role in reshaping urban travel patterns. At the same time, there has been an increase in both cycling trips and traffic accidents involving cyclists. This paper aims to provide new insights and policy guidance regarding the effect of COVID-19 related travel-restriction policies on the road traffic accident patterns, with an emphasis on cyclists’ safety. Specifically, by analysing the accidents data in the New York City and estimating three fixed effects logit models on the occurrence of different types of accidents in a given zip code area and time interval, we derived the following findings. First, while the overall number of road traffic accidents plummeted in the NYC after the stay-at-home policy was implemented, the average severity increased. The average number of cyclists killed or injured per accidents more than tripled relative to levels in similar times in previous years. Second, the declaration of the New York State stay-at-home order was significantly associated with a higher risk of accidents resulting in casualties. The number of Citi Bike trips in the area at the time overwhelmingly predicted severe risk for cyclists. Last, we applied the models to detect hot zones for cyclists’ severe accidents. We found that these hot zones tend to be spatially and temporally concentrated, making it possible to devise targeted safety measures. This paper contributes to the understanding of the impact of COVID-19 travel-restriction policies on accidents involving cyclists, reveals higher risks for cyclists as an unintended consequence of travel-restriction policies, and provides an analytical tool for road safety impact evaluation should future travel restrictions be considered.

Arming for conflict, arming for peace? How small arms imports affect intrastate conflict risk

Although a prevalent technology of conflict, the impact of small arms imports on the risk of intrastate conflict outbreak has not been examined so far. This article argues that small arms not only enhance general military capabilities, but also contribute to state capacities necessary for conflict prevention. These two mechanisms are incorporated in a formal model of power shifts. The derived hypotheses are tested on 146 countries for the period 1993–2014. Using split-population and penalized fixed-effects logit models as innovative estimation methods for rare-events data, small arms imports are found to have no or even a risk-reducing impact.

Interest Group Responses to Reform Efforts in the U.S. House of Representatives: The Case of Big Sugar

The US sugar program has long delivered significant subsidies to a concentrated group of sugar growers at the expense of American consumers. In 2013, however, an amendment in the House of Representatives attempted to seriously reduce those subsidies. The amendment narrowly lost. A similar amendment was proposed in 2018. It was voted down as well, but much more handily. In this paper, we show that “Big Sugar” increased real contributions to House incumbents in the interim by more than 50%. Using a district fixed effects logit model, we also show that these contributions significantly raised the probability that the targeted representative would vote against reforming the sugar subsidies. While many argue that money does not directly affect roll-call voting, we believe that in cases where the economic interest is clear and sizeable, and the researcher can use repeat votes to account for district level unobservables, the evidence shows a significant influence of money on votes.

The Best Years of Older Europeans\u2019 Lives

This paper offers new evidence on the life-cycle pattern of happiness. A novelty of the analysis is that it exploits information on the period individuals recall as the happiest in their lives. Data come from SHARELIFE 2008/09, a retrospective life survey conducted in 13 European countries among individuals aged 50 or more. Using this information, I build a longitudinal data set that extends across the whole lifespan of respondents. The probability of living a happiest year in life at each age is estimated through a conditional fixed effects logit model. Results show that the likelihood of living the happiest period in life exhibits a concave relationship with age, with a turning point at about 30–34 years and a decreasing trend from that point onward. Retrospectively, midlife is not perceived as the least likely happiest period in life. These patterns persist even after controlling for usual correlates of subjective well-being, and they are rather stable across cohorts and genders despite presenting certain variability across European countries.

Deriving a Preference-Based Measure for People With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy From the DMD-QoL

ObjectivesThis study generates a preference-based measure for capturing the quality of life of people with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) from a new measure of quality of life, DMD-QoL. MethodsA health state classification system was derived from the DMD-QoL based on psychometric performance of items, factor analysis, and item response theory analysis. Preferences for health states described by the classification system were elicited using an online discrete choice experiment survey with life years as an additional attribute, from members of the UK general population (n = 1043). Discrete choice experiment data was modeled using a conditional fixed-effects logit model and utility estimates were directly anchored on the 1 to 0 full health-dead scale. ResultsThe health state classification system has 8 dimensions: mobility, difficulty using hands, difficulty breathing, pain, tiredness, worry, participation, and feeling good about yourself. The standard model had mostly statistically significant coefficients and reflected the instrument’s monotonic structure. However, 2 dimensions had inconsistent coefficients (where utility increased as health worsened) and a consistent model was estimated that merged adjacent inconsistent severity levels. The best state defined by the classification system has a value of 1 and the worst state has a value of −0.559. ConclusionThe modeled results enable DMD-QoL-8D utility values to be generated using DMD-QoL or DMD-QoL-8D data to generate QALYs for people with DMD. QALYs can then be used to inform economic models of the cost-effectiveness of interventions in DMD. Future research comparing the psychometric performance of DMD-QoL-8D to existing generic preference-based measures, including EQ-5D-5L, is recommended.

The Association Between Retiree Migration and Retirement Satisfaction

The purpose of this study is to examine migration during retirement and its association with retirement satisfaction. Utilizing longitudinal data collected from the Health and Retirement Study, this study estimates a fixed-effects logit model to examine how changing U.S. Census divisions during retirement is related to retirement satisfaction. The findings suggest that a change in residential location during retirement is associated with an increase in retirement satisfaction. In planning for retirement, individuals should examine what will provide them with the highest level of satisfaction during their retirement and whether their current location can facilitate an enjoyable retirement. Financial planners and counselors should also consider, as a part of their systemic retirement planning process, increasing the attention that is given to the residential location in which their clients will reside during retirement.