Impact of COVID-19 travel-restriction policies on road traffic accident patterns with emphasis on cyclists: A case study of New York City

Abstract

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, travel-restriction policies widely adopted by cities across the world played a profound role in reshaping urban travel patterns. At the same time, there has been an increase in both cycling trips and traffic accidents involving cyclists. This paper aims to provide new insights and policy guidance regarding the effect of COVID-19 related travel-restriction policies on the road traffic accident patterns, with an emphasis on cyclists’ safety. Specifically, by analysing the accidents data in the New York City and estimating three fixed effects logit models on the occurrence of different types of accidents in a given zip code area and time interval, we derived the following findings. First, while the overall number of road traffic accidents plummeted in the NYC after the stay-at-home policy was implemented, the average severity increased. The average number of cyclists killed or injured per accidents more than tripled relative to levels in similar times in previous years. Second, the declaration of the New York State stay-at-home order was significantly associated with a higher risk of accidents resulting in casualties. The number of Citi Bike trips in the area at the time overwhelmingly predicted severe risk for cyclists. Last, we applied the models to detect hot zones for cyclists’ severe accidents. We found that these hot zones tend to be spatially and temporally concentrated, making it possible to devise targeted safety measures. This paper contributes to the understanding of the impact of COVID-19 travel-restriction policies on accidents involving cyclists, reveals higher risks for cyclists as an unintended consequence of travel-restriction policies, and provides an analytical tool for road safety impact evaluation should future travel restrictions be considered.