Five-year Terms Research Articles

Indonesia's Democratic Past and Future

Very briefly, from 1950 until about 1957 Indonesia was a representative democracy. The country had no democratic experience prior to its 1945 declaration of independence from Dutch and Japanese colonial rule. Since the late 1950s, it experienced two types of authoritarianism, the personal rule of President Sukarno's Guided Democracy until 1965 and the army-backed New Order of President Soeharto from 1966 to the present. At the turn of the 1990s, the New Order's grip on Indonesian society appears, at least on the surface of observable events, as firm as it ever been. Under these circumstances, why write about Indonesian politics from a democratic perspective? I have several reasons, but let me highlight three, one broadly theoretical, one methodological, and one concretely empirical. First, as is well known, there is an extremely high correlation between representative democracy and advanced industrial capitalism among contemporary nation-states., Indonesia's economy is far from advancedit is in fact still below the threshold of NICdom-but it moved steadily in that direction for more than two decades.2 Analyses of Indonesia's political progress (or lack of it) can add the evidence of another case to our still limited understanding of the relationship between capitalist development and democratization. Second, there is a vigorous recent literature on democratization in southern Europe, Latin America, and East Asia in the 1970s and 1980s.3 These new studies examine elites and leaders and the negotiating and bargaining that have characterized transitions from authoritarianism to democracy. Their approach several qualities attractive to a student of Indonesian democratization. It focuses on proximate causes, in the form of the goals, perceptions, resources or capabilities, strategies, and actions of domestic politicians in and out of power. It is dynamic, directly examining processes of change. And it seeks patterns through analysis in depth of particular cases, aiming at a balance between the uniqueness of historical events and the universality of human experience. Third, President Soeharto is sixty-nine years old. He held the presidency since March 1967 and been elected to the office by the People's Consultative Assembly for five consecutive five-year terms beginning in 1968. Since March 1988, his most recent election, the succession issue dominated domestic political discussion. Soeharto hinted that he might step down in 1993, but he also allowed or encouraged others to act, and himself acted, in ways that indicate he intends to stay on. Given the apparent solidity of the New Order, succession politics is not identical with democratization. Nonetheless, succession has always been the most sensitive internal management problem for authoritarian rulers.4 A crisis, or even a carefully managed transfer of office, can provide opportunities for presidential candidates and others to take actions that may lead toward or away from a more democratic form of government. It may

International Court of Justice Elects Officers

We are pleased to report that, on February 7, 1991, the International Court of Justice elected Judge Robert Yewdall Jennings to be its President and Judge Shigeru Oda to be its Vice-President. Both offices carry five-year terms. Given the growing role of the Court, these elections are a significant tribute to, and responsibility for, two outstanding scholars of international law. Both have published in this Journal and are Honorary Members of the Society.

Incapacitation as a Strategy for Crime Control: Possibilities and Pitfalls

A number of estimates of incapacitative effects from incarceration of convicted offenders are available. While these estimates vary in absolute magnitude, the studies consistently find that crime reduction achieved by existing collective incapacitation policies is modest, at under 20 percent of crimes prevented. Further crime reduction from alternative policies that would impose fairly stringent mandatory five-year prison terms after convictions for serious offenses is similarly modest. Implementing these alternative policies, however, would result in dramatic increases in already record-size prison populations. In view of the limited crime reduction and enormous increases in prison population associated with collective incapacitation policies, recent research has explored the potential benefits of more selective or targeted incapacitation. If a small number of high-rate offenders commit a disproportionately large amount of crime, targeting limited prison resources on these offenders should achieve increa...

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Politics of Regulatory Reform: Since Three Mile Island

The present era is one in which regulatory politics and policies are in a state of flux. Recent efforts at regulatory have taken a variety of forms, including relaxation of federal controls on the airline and trucking industries and on oil and natural gas prices. In contrast to most other policy areas, however, recent developments in federal regulation of the nuclear power industry-particularly since the March 1979 accident at Three Mile Island-would seem, at least at first glance, to indicate a trend toward greater regulation rather than less. This paper will attempt to show that while some structural and policy changes have indeed occurred at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission since 1979, several of the larger administrative and political issues concerning regulation of nuclear power, assessment of the risks of nuclear technology, and the accountability of regulators to elected officials and the public remain unresolved. Moreover, there are signs that many of the changes that have taken place may be more cosmetic than real, and may or may not result in real improvements in the quality of regulatory decision making regarding the nuclear industry in the United States. Even before Three Mile Island (hereafter referred to as TMI), there was no shortage of suggestions for reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, created under the 1974 Energy Reorganization Act to take over the old Atomic Energy Commission's responsibility for licensing and regulation of commercial nuclear power plants. After Congress belatedly recognized the potential conflicts of interest involved in vesting the AEC with both promotion and regulation of nuclear power, it was hoped that the new agency would be able to make a fresh start and avoid the mistakes of its predecessor.' In many ways, however, the new NRC was not significantly different from the AEC in its structure or policies. The NRC retained the collegial structure characteristic of the AEC as well as such other independent regulatory commissions as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The five NRC commissioners are appointed by the president (who also designates the chairman) with the consent of the Senate for staggered five-year terms, and no more than three of the five may belong to the

The President Reports: Three Major ASA Actions

I wish to report three major closely-linked developments in the American Statistical Association: (1) the appointment of a full-time executive director, (2) a dues increase, and (3) important changes in pu}lication policy in the Journal of the American Statistical Association. These developments follow many years of steady progress during which ASA has grown and advanced in all phases of our regular activities under the guidance of previous officers with great contributions by many members who conducted. national and chapter meetings, produced our publications, carried forward various committee activities, and performed the day by day work of our Association. Central in this progress during the past twelve years has been Don Riley, our devoted Executive Director. Don has served two full five-year terms in that office on a part-time basis while carrying his regular duties in the Office of Statistical Standards. For some time he has reminded the Board and Council of the possibility that an aggravation of a health problem might make it necessary for him to withdraw abruptly from the office. Don has won many friends in ASA and this warning was sad news. There has been a steady increase in the demands on the Executive Director, as on other officers, for leadership and high level services, reflecting the widening opportunities and ever more urgent need confronting ASA for fostering statistics in all its phases. From 1964 to 1966, the Council of the Association, and especially its younger members had vigorously encouraged the ASA to go further in the direction of professional activities than it has before. The financing was a roadblock. A first step was taken by Robert E. Johnson's planning committee on the future of the Association. Following up its work, last year's President, Frederick Stephan, appointed a committee to review the national office of the ASA from the point of view of the ASA's, responsibilities to the profession and its opportunities to serve its members and the nation.

Regulatory Philosophy—A Regulator Speaks

T HIS ARTICLE will attempt to outline briefly how we go about regulation in Illinois, as well as to sketch in broad terms some of the activities and philosophy of the Illinois Commerce Commission. This analysis also reviews some of the efforts that have contributed to the economic robustness of Illinois. The Commission consists of five members, including the Chairman, who are appointed by the Governor for five-year terms. The appointments are subject to confirmation by the State Senate. The Illinois Public Utilities Act provides that no more than three members shall be of the majority party at the time of appointment. I have a deep conviction, developed during nearly four years of service, that first-class regulation is so important that we can afford to have only competent, adequately compensated people on the job. This is a conviction I hope will gain in currency, particularly among the gentlemen who can do something about the Commissioner compensation phase. We believe we have the competence now, but it can be continued in the years to come only by material recognition of the worth of the work. So, with our Governor's blessing and the support of most local utilities, a bill was prepared to provide the funds necessary, and the last Illinois General Assembly passed it-an .08% tax on gross revenues of utilities. With this additional revenue, we are now able both to make Commission staff work more attractive to qualified people, and to intensify our efforts in various areas. Our Commission is set up on functional lines, including sections for general administration, hearings and orders, engineering, accounts and finance, rates and