Five-year Prospective Cohort Study Research Articles

Safe2Play in youth ice hockey: injury profile and risk factors in a 5-year Canadian longitudinal cohort study

Introduction Ice hockey is a popular global sport with growing participation for boys and girls yet remains a high-risk sport for injury. While the evidence for some risk factors, such as bodychecking policy is well established, other risk factors such as player sex have been understudied. The objectives of this study were to examine factors associated with rates of game-related injury, game-related injury resulting in >7 days of time-loss, and practice-related injury in youth ice hockey. Materials and methods Safe2Play was a five-year prospective cohort study (2013–2018). All injuries were identified using validated injury surveillance methodology. Multilevel Poisson regression (adjusting for cluster by team and including multiple imputation of missing covariates) was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for player sex, age group, bodychecking policy, year of play, level of play, weight, previous injury within last 12 months, previous lifetime concussion history, and position. Results A total of 4418 male and female ice hockey players (representing 6584 player-seasons) participating in under-13 (ages 11–12), under-15 (ages 13–14) and under-18 (ages 15–17) age groups were recruited. There were 1184 game-related and 182 practice-related injuries. Factors associated with game-related injury included female sex (IRR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.18–2.08), previous injury (IRR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.26–1.70) and lifetime concussion history (IRR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.23–1.62). Goaltenders had a lower rate of injury (IRR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.40–0.72) relative to forwards, as did players exposed to policy disallowing bodychecking in games (IRR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.35–0.55). Female sex (IRR = 1.90; 95% CI: 1.10–3.28) and lifetime concussion history were also significantly associated with practice-related injury (IRR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.08–2.18). Conclusions Based on data from a large 5-year Canadian youth ice hockey longitudinal cohort, several factors associated with injury were identified. Future injury prevention strategies should consider age, sex, previous concussion and injury history, and body checking leagues. Future research in female youth ice hockey including female-only leagues should be a priority to inform prevention strategies in this understudied population.

Long-term treatment of evocalcet in hemodialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism: a five-year prospective cohort study in 147 Japanese patients

BackgroundCinacalcet hydrochloride (cinacalcet), an oral calcimimetics for secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT), has been widely used worldwide. In contrast, evocalcet, an improved derivative of cinacalcet, was approved only in Japan in 2018 and has not received approval overseas. Consequently, the available information on the long-term use of evocalcet relies solely on data from a 1-year dosing phase III clinical trial.MethodsThe cohort of 147 chronic hemodialysis patients on cinacalcet to manage SHPT was simultaneously switched to the lowest dose of evocalcet (1 mg/day) and prospectively followed for 5 years in real-world clinical settings.ResultsThe median evocalcet dose was 1 mg/day at 0.5 years, and it remained stable at 2 mg/day from 1 to 5 years after the prescription initiation. Additionally, serum parathyroid hormone, corrected calcium, phosphorus, and total alkaline phosphatase levels showed no significant changes compared with their levels at the time of the switch and remained stable over the 5-year period. Furthermore, no adverse events related to vital signs, serum biochemistries, or upper gastrointestinal symptoms were observed in patients during treatment with evocalcet.ConclusionsThese results suggest that only a small number of patients require higher evocalcet doses, and that SHPT can be effectively managed with low-dose evocalcet for 5 years. Additionally, the drug’s long-term safety has been confirmed.Trial registration: name of the registry: Prescription change from cinacalcet hydrochloride to evocalcet in hemodialysis patients. Trial registration number R000041815. Trial registration UMIN000036702. Registered 10 May 2019—retrospectively registered. https://center6.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr/ctr_his_list.cgi?recptno=R000041815.

Time course of cerebral oxygenation and cerebrovascular reactivity in Kyrgyz highlanders. A five-year prospective cohort study.

Introduction: This prospective cohort study assessed the effects of chronic hypoxaemia due to high-altitude residency on the cerebral tissue oxygenation (CTO) and cerebrovascular reactivity. Methods: Highlanders, born, raised, and currently living above 2,500m, without cardiopulmonary disease, participated in a prospective cohort study from 2012 until 2017. The measurements were performed at 3,250m. After 20min of rest in supine position while breathing ambient air (FiO2 0.21) or oxygen (FiO2 1.0) in random order, guided hyperventilation followed under the corresponding gas mixture. Finger pulse oximetry (SpO2) and cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy assessing CTO and change in cerebral haemoglobin concentration (cHb), a surrogate of cerebral blood volume changes and cerebrovascular reactivity, were applied. Arterial blood gases were obtained during ambient air breathing. Results: Fifty three highlanders, aged 50 ± 2years, participated in 2017 and 2012. While breathing air in 2017 vs. 2012, PaO2 was reduced, mean ± SE, 7.40 ± 0.13 vs. 7.84 ± 0.13kPa; heart rate was increased 77 ± 1 vs. 70 ± 1bpm (p < 0.05) but CTO remained unchanged, 67.2% ± 0.7% vs. 67.4% ± 0.7%. With oxygen, SpO2 and CTO increased similarly in 2017 and 2012, by a mean (95% CI) of 8.3% (7.5-9.1) vs. 8.5% (7.7-9.3) in SpO2, and 5.5% (4.1-7.0) vs. 4.5% (3.0-6.0) in CTO, respectively. Hyperventilation resulted in less reduction of cHb in 2017 vs. 2012, mean difference (95% CI) in change with air 2.0 U/L (0.3-3.6); with oxygen, 2.1 U/L (0.5-3.7). Conclusion: Within 5years, CTO in highlanders was preserved despite a decreased PaO2. As this was associated with a reduced response of cerebral blood volume to hypocapnia, adaptation of cerebrovascular reactivity might have occurred.

A comprehensive description of kidney disease progression after acute kidney injury from a prospective, parallel-group cohort study

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with adverse long-term outcomes, but many studies are retrospective, focused on specific patient groups or lack adequate comparators. The ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) Study was a five-year prospective parallel-group cohort study to examine this. Hospitalized cohorts with and without exposure to AKI were matched 1:1 for age, baseline kidney function, and diabetes. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (uACR) were measured at three-months, one-, three- and five-years. Outcomes included kidney disease progression, heart failure episodes and mortality. In 866 matched individuals, kidney disease progression at five years was found to be significantly increased in 30% of the exposed group versus 7% of those non-exposed (adjusted odds ratio 2.49 [95% confidence interval 1.43 to 4.36]). In the AKI group, this was largely characterized by incomplete recovery of kidney function by three months. Further episodes of AKI during follow-up were significantly more common in the exposed group (odds ratio 2.71 [1.94 to 3.77]) and had an additive effect on risk of kidney disease progression. Mortality and heart failure episodes were more frequent in the exposed group, but the association with AKI was no longer significant when models were adjusted for three-month eGFR and uACR. In a general hospitalized population, kidney disease progression after five years was common and strongly associated with AKI. Thus, the time course of changes and the attenuation of associations with adverse outcomes after adjustment for three-month eGFR and uACR suggest non-recovery of kidney function is an important assessment in post-AKI care and a potential future target for intervention. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN25405995.

Frailty in relation to the risk of carotid atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in Chinese community-dwelling older adults: A five-year prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo investigate the frailty, as estimated by accumulated health deficits, in association with the symptomatic carotid atherosclerosis and in relation to five-year cardiovascular (CVD) outcomes. MethodsThis is a five-year prospective cohort study. Secondary analysis of data from the Beijing Longitudinal Study on Aging. Community-dwelling people aged 55+ years (n = 1257) have been followed between 2009 and 2014, and having carotid ultrasonography examinations with no CVD events at baseline. Frailty was quantified using the deficit accumulation-based frailty index (FI), constructed from 37 health deficits assessed at baseline. The association between the degree of frailty and carotid atherosclerosis was examined using odds ratios (OR) with multivariate logistic regression analyses. Effects of frailty on the probability of five-year cardiovascular events and mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR). The analyses were adjusted for demographics, baseline carotid atherosclerosis status, and CVD risk factors. ResultsThe FI showed characteristic properties and was independently associated with the major carotid atherosclerosis symptoms, including carotid artery intima-media thickening (the most frail vs. the least frail: OR = 4.39: 1.98–7.82), carotid plaque (OR = 3.41: 1.28–6.54), and carotid plaque stability (OR = 1.19, 95 % CI: 1.01–3.59). Compared with the least frail, the most frail individuals were more likely to develop a cardiovascular event in five years, including myocardial infarction (HR = 3.38, 95 % CI = 1.84–6.19), stroke (HR = 1.26, 95 % CI = 1.00–5.87), CVD death (HR = 6.33, 95 % CI = 1.69–11.02), and all-cause death (HR = 5.95, 95 % CI = 2.74–8.95). ConclusionDeficit accumulation was closely associated with carotid atherosclerosis risks and strongly predicted five-year CVD events. The frailty index can be used to help identify older adults at high risks of CVD for improved preventive healthcare.

Longitudinal associations of objectively measured physical activity and sedentary time with leg muscle strength, balance and falls in middle-aged women

ABSTRACT We examined the longitudinal associations of accelerometer-measured physical activity and sedentary time with leg muscle strength (LMS), balance, and falls in middle-aged women. This was a 5-year cohort study among 308 women aged 36–56 years. We used linear mixed-effects models to examine associations of baseline and change in accelerometer-measured sedentary time, light physical activity (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) with baseline and 5-year change in LMS and balance (timed up and go test [TUG], functional reach test [FRT], lateral reach test [LRT], and step test [ST]), and negative binomial/Poisson and log-binomial regression as appropriate to assess associations with falls after 5-year follow-up. Greater baseline MVPA was associated with better baseline LMS (β = 4.65 kg/SD, 95% CI: 1.37, 7.93) and TUG (β = −0.09 s/SD, 95% CI: –0.18, –0.01) but not with change in them over 5 years. Baseline MVPA was not associated with FRT at baseline but associated with a greater decrease in FRT (β = −0.87 cm/SD, 95% CI: –1.57, –0.17). Increased MVPA over 5 years was associated with less deterioration in FRT (β = 0.88 cm/SD, 95% CI: 0.14, 1.61). Increased sedentary time over 5 years was associated with a larger decrease in FRT (β = −0.82 cm/SD, 95% CI: –1.58, –0.07). Higher baseline LPA was associated with higher falls risk (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.57). Higher baseline MVPA may benefit LMS and balance, while increasing MVPA in the medium term has little effect on change in these outcomes in mid-life. Detrimental association of LPA with falls may be due to greater exposures to environmental hazards. Highlights Our study for the first time examined the longitudinal associations of objectively measured physical activity and sedentary time with leg muscle strength, balance and falls in middle-aged women. Higher baseline moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) may be beneficial for muscle strength and balance at baseline but increasing MVPA in the medium term has little effect on change in LMS or balance outcomes in middle-aged women. Higher baseline light physical activity (LPA) was associated with an increased risk of falls. The detrimental association of LPA with falls may be due to a greater exposure to environmental hazards in midlife, which needs to be clarified in future research.

P039 The association between gout and psychological co-morbidity: a five-year prospective cohort study

Abstract Background/Aims Gout is associated with physical co-morbidities and a reduction in physical health-related quality of life. However, the association between gout and psychological comorbidity (depression and anxiety) has received less attention. A secondary analysis of data from a five-year prospective cohort study was performed to determine the prevalence and incidence of anxiety and depression in people with gout, and gout characteristics associated with psychological co-morbidity. Methods Adults aged ≥18 years with gout were identified via Read codes or allopurinol prescriptions from 20 general practices across the West Midlands. Questionnaires were mailed at baseline and at 12-, 36- and 60-months. Questionnaire data included socio-demographics, gout-related characteristics (flare frequency, oligo- or poly-articular gout, gout duration and allopurinol use) and validated anxiety (GAD-7) and depression (PHQ-9) questionnaires. Current anxiety and depression were defined as scores&amp;gt;10 on the GAD-7 and PHQ-9 respectively. The prevalence and incidence of new-onset anxiety or depression were described at 12, 36 and 60 months in those without anxiety and depression at baseline. Binary logistic regression used to determine baseline gout characteristics associated with developing new-onset anxiety or depression at each time point (odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, gender and deprivation). Results Of 1184 baseline responders, 721, 605 and 411 responded at 12-, 36- and 60-months, respectively. The peak prevalence of both depression and anxiety was at baseline at 12.6% and 10.0%, respectively. Responders with anxiety (GAD-7 ≥10) or depression (PHQ-9 ≥10) at baseline were excluded from new-onset analysis. Over five years, one in thirteen (7.5%) developed new-onset anxiety, and one in eleven (9.2%) developed new-onset depression at any future time point. Developing anxiety was associated with a history of oligo- or poly-articular gout flares at baseline (OR 2.31, 95% CI:1.26 to 4.23) but not flare frequency, gout duration, or allopurinol use. New-onset depression was associated with allopurinol use at baseline (OR 1.93, 95% CI: 1.01 to 3.69) but not flare frequency, gout duration, or oligo- or poly-articular gout flares. Conclusion Psychological co-morbidity is common in people living with gout; clinicians should be aware of this when assessing and treating people with gout. Disclosure J.J.R. Higgs: None. L. Clarson: None. R. Bajpai: None. S. Muller: None. E. Roddy: None.

High Level of Serum Uric Acid induced Monocyte Inflammation is Related toCoronary Calcium Deposition in the Middle-Aged and Elder Population of China: Afive-year Prospective Cohort Study.

BackgroundSerum uric acid (SUA) is suspected to be associated with atherosclerosis and calcium deposition in atherosclerosis is known to related poor prognosis, yet there is no cohort study on the aged in China. We aimed to investigate the relationships between SUA levels and coronary calcium deposition in the middle-aged and elderly populations in China.MethodsA total of 326 participants between the ages of 50 and 85 who had undergone a coronary CT scan in 2015 at the Huadong Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University (Shanghai, China) were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was performed to analyze the correlation between SUA levels and coronary artery calcium score (CACS). The changes in CACS during a five-year follow-up were analyzed through Kaplan–Meier survival and binary cox regression analysis. An observational study was done on another 104 asymptomatic middle-aged and elderly patients to compare relative mRNA expressions of proinflammatory factors in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 104 subjects.ResultsBased on the first year of follow-up data analysis, the elevation of SUA levels (P<0.001) is an independent risk factor for the increase of CACS after coordinating the confounding factors. According to five-year follow-up data, cox regression analysis proved that SUA was a risk factor for CACS (HR =5.86, P<0.001). The mRNA expression of IL-6 and CXCL8 in the HUA and HUA patients with CAC (HUA-CAC) groups was significantly higher than that in the normal control (NC) and coronary calcium deposition (CAC) groups.ConclusionTaken together, the findings in this study indicate that high SUA levels (P<0.001) are an independent risk factor for CACS and elevated SUA levels increase the risk of developing coronary calcium deposition among middle-aged and old people in the Chinese population, which may be related to an increase of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the PBMCs.

Xerostomia as a key predictor of physical frailty among community-dwelling older adults in Japan: a five-year prospective cohort study from The Otassha Study

PurposeTo the best of our knowledge, the association between xerostomia and physical frailty has not been studied in Asian countries. This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between xerostomia and the incidence of physical frailty in Japan. MethodsThis study included community-dwelling older adults aged ≥65 years at baseline (n=609). Baseline intraoral examination, physical performance and anthropometric measurements, blood examination, a structured self-administered questionnaire survey, and face-to-face interviews were conducted. Xerostomia was defined using a dichotomous questionnaire. Following the baseline survey, data on the incidence of physical frailty were collected over 5 years. Physical frailty, the outcome variable, was defined as weakness, slowness, weight loss, low physical activity level, and exhaustion. Participants with three or more components were considered frail. The hazard ratio (HR) for physical frailty incidence according to xerostomia was calculated using Cox hazards regression analysis. ResultsAt baseline, 166 participants (27.3 %) complained of xerostomia. During follow-up, 109 participants (17.9 %) developed physical frailty. After adjusting for confounding factors, such as sex, age, educational level, polypharmacy, comorbidities, and smoking habit, xerostomia was significantly associated with the incidence of physical frailty (adjusted HR 1.65; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.09–2.52). ConclusionsXerostomia is one of the key predictors of physical frailty. Our results suggested that assessing and preventing xerostomia is important for preventing physical frailty.

A five-year prospective cohort study of HIV/HCV infections in community-related injecting drug users

Objective: To explore incidences of HIV and HCV infections in injecting drug users (IDUs) in community. Methods: A community-based survey was conducted to recruit 200 HIV sero-negative IDUs for a prospective cohort study based on the local needle and syringe exchange program in Longyang district of Baoshan city, Yunnan province from June 2014 to June 2019, China. Follow-up was carried out every six month to investigate the prevalence of drug use behavior and sexual behavior in IDUs. Blood samples were collected from them to test HIV and HCV serum antibodies. The cohort was opened for recvuitment every year to replenish the cohort to 200 subjects. Results: A total of 231 IDUs were recruited after 5 years of follow-up. Cohort retention rate was 82.0% (164/200) in 5 years. No HIV sero-positive conversion was found during the 5-year study. There were 89 HCV negative IDUs. Totally, 384.6 person years were observed and the HCV sero-positive conversion in this cohort was 0.26 per 100 person-years. Conclusion: It was found that the incidences of HIV and HCV in IDUs in communities of the study area were at low levels, while comprehensive and effective intervention measures are still needed to control HIV and HCV infections in this population.

Characteristics and risk of incarceration among “hard-to-reach” people who use drugs: A five-year prospective cohort study combining self-reports and registry data

BackgroundIncarcerations are associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality among people who use drugs (PWUD). In a sample of 884 PWUD, we examine and estimate the risk of incarcerations (i.e., number, duration, and most serious offense). MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, PWUD were recruited from street- and low-threshold services in seven Norwegian cities in 2013 (Sept-Nov), and followed through the Correctional Service Registry until 20.12.2018. The risk of incarceration during follow-up was examined with multivariable logistic (no incarceration vs. at least one) and multinomial regression models (“no incarcerations”, vs. “1″, “≥2″), while accounting for gender, age, homelessness/shelter use, opioid substitution treatment, illegal income sources, injecting behaviours, previous incarcerations, and recruitment city. ResultsDuring follow-up, there were in total 662 incarceration episodes, and 44.7% of the participants were incarcerated at least once. Overall, 37.5% of those incarcerated had at least one episode due to a drug offense. The average incarceration duration was 65.2 days with 3.5% of the episodes lasting ≥one year. Gender (male), homelessness/shelter use, illegal income sources, injecting stimulants, and previous incarcerations increased the odds of incarceration, while older age decreased the odds. Gender (male), younger age, self-reported theft or theft and dealing, injecting stimulants or heroin and stimulants and previous incarcerations increased the risk of multiple incarcerations. ConclusionIn a five-year prospective study of PWUD, incarcerations were common, and short-term sentences and recidivism were the norm. This is of concern as incarcerations add to an already elevated morbidity and mortality risk in this population.

Clinical correlates and outcomes associated with pregabalin use among people prescribed opioids for chronic non-cancer pain: A five-year prospective cohort study.

Pregabalin has become widely used as an alternative to opioids in treating certain types of chronic non-cancer pain, but few studies have examined its clinical efficacy outside trials. We address this gap by examining the utilization, correlates and clinical outcomes of pregabalin use among an Australian community-based cohort of people prescribed opioids for chronic non-cancer pain. Through a five-year prospective cohort study (n = 1514) we examined associations between pregabalin use and pain severity and interference, mental health, opioid dose and past month use of ambulance and emergency department services. We used fixed-effects regression models to examine within-participant differences, and random-effects regression models to examine within- and between-participant differences in clinical outcomes. In an analysis of cases with complete data over five-years (n = 896), the prevalence of pregabalin use ranged from 16% at cohort entry to 29% at 36- and 48-months, and 46% reported pregabalin use at any time during the five years. Pregabalin use was associated with greater pain severity and interference and greater use of high-risk opioid doses (>90 oral morphine equivalents/day). Pregabalin use was not associated with changes in mental health symptoms, ambulance or emergency department attendance in the fixed or random effects models. Pregabalin use was common, but for most people use was not associated with clinically meaningful improvements in pain or functioning.

The association between frailty and incidence of dementia in Beijing: findings from 10/66 dementia research group population-based cohort study

BackgroundThe relationship between frailty and dementia is unclear and there are very few population-based studies regarding this issue in China. The purpose of this study is to estimate the association between frailty and incident dementia in China, and to explore different effects of frailty established by three definitions of frailty on dementia incidence.MethodsA five-year prospective cohort study was carried out in 2022 participants aged 65 years and over in urban and rural sites in Beijing, China. The participants were interviewed by trained community primary health care workers from 2004 to 2009. Frailty was defined using modified Fried frailty phenotype, physical frailty definition, and multidimensional frailty definition. Dementia was diagnosed using the 10/66 dementia criterion for calculating cumulative incidence. Both competing risk regression models and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to examine the associations between frailty at baseline and five-year cumulative incidence of dementia.ResultsAt the end of follow-up the five-year cumulative incidence rates of dementia with frailty and without frailty defined by the modified Fried frailty were 21.0% and 9.6%, those defined by the physical frailty were 19.9% and 9.0%, and those defined by the multidimensional frailty were 22.8% and 8.9%, respectively. Compared with non-frail participants, frail people had a higher risk of incident dementia using multidimensional frailty definition after adjusting covariates based on competing risk regression model (HR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.01~2.17) and Cox proportional hazards model (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.07~2.26). The association between frailty and incident dementia was statistically significant in participants in the upper three quartiles of age (aged 68 years and over) using the multidimensional frailty definition based on the competing risk regression model (HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.06~2.43) and Cox proportional hazard model (HR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.19~2.61).ConclusionsMultidimensional frailty may play an inherent role in incident dementia, especially in the people aged over 68, which is significant for distinguishing high risk people and determining secondary prevention strategies for dementia patients.

A time-sensitive rubric for assessing mastoidectomy proficiency.

To develop a time-sensitive, standardized rubric for cadaveric temporal bone dissection for otolaryngology resident education. This is a five-year prospective cohort study that evaluated otolaryngology resident performance during sequential cadaveric temporal bone dissection courses at a single otolaryngology residency training program. A canal-wall-up mastoidectomy with a facial recess approach was performed adhering to a 30-minute time limit and graded according to a standardized rubric. Main outcome measures included: (1) correct structure identification and (2) injuries sustained to structures as compared by resident post-graduate year (PGY) level. Thirteen residents were evaluated from October 2012 to March 2017. This included 57 individual graded exercises performed over ten dissection courses. The average score for PGY-2 residents was lowest (68.9), and PGY-5 residents achieved the highest average score (87.7). Junior residents correctly identified fewer structures (77.5%) when compared to senior residents (91.3%), p<0.0001. Correct performance of a facial recess approach was achieved by 100% of senior residents, but only 59.3% of junior residents (p=0.0003). The percentage of major injuries, which included the facial nerve, tegmen, labyrinth, and ossicular chain, decreased each PGY-level from a maximum of 17% by PGY-2 residents to a minimum of 5% by PGY-5 residents. Senior residents correctly identify more structures and are able to complete a facial recess approach with higher fidelity when subjected to a time-sensitive graded mastoidectomy rubric.

How many words are Australian children hearing in the first year of life?

BackgroundThere is evidence that parents from more socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds engage in fewer verbal interactions with their child than more advantaged parents. This leads to the so-called, ‘30 million-word gap’. This study aims to investigate the number of words children hear and the number of vocalizations children produce in their first year of life and examines whether these aspects of the early language home environment differ by maternal education.MethodsMothers were recruited into a five-year prospective cohort study and categorized into either high or low maternal education groups. Data was derived from the first two waves of the study, when the children were six and twelve months old. At both waves, children were involved in day-long audio recordings using the Language Environment Analysis software that provided automatic counts of adult words spoken to the child, child vocalizations and conversational turns. Descriptive results are presented by maternal education groups.ResultsThere was large variation within each maternal education group, with the number of adult words spoken to the child ranging from 2958 to 39,583 at six months and 4389 to 45,849 at twelve months. There were no meaningful differences between adult words, child vocalizations or conversational turns across maternal education groups at either wave of data collection.ConclusionsThese results show that a word gap related to maternal education is not apparent up to twelve months of age. The large variability among both maternal education groups suggests that universal interventions that encourage all parents to talk more to their child may be more appropriate than interventions targeted towards disadvantaged families during the first year of life.

The trajectories of local food avoidance after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster: A five-year prospective cohort study

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in Japan, residents continue to be concerned about radiations despite strict regulations on radionuclides in foods and decontamination. We examined the trajectory of the avoidance tendency of local food among residents in the affected area. Growth mixture modelling was adapted to ten waves cohort of parents of all elementary school children (N = 1606) in the affected area (Minami soma city). The trajectory was examined for six types of food: mushrooms, milk, vegetables/fruits, meat, fish, and rice. A three-class trajectory model (Low concern adaptors, High concern adaptors, High concern maintainers) was identified regardless of the types of food. While about half of the sample was classified as high concern maintainers regarding rice, fish, and mushrooms, the proportions of the three groups were roughly equal regarding other types of food. Local food avoidance has prominently decreased five years after the accident. Multinomial logistic regression revealed that the higher the air dose rate at the place of residence at the time of the accident, the higher the probability of belonging to the high concern adaptors rather than to the low concern adaptors. Local food avoidance, which increased after the nuclear accident, decreased substantially with the lifting of evacuation orders. As local food avoidance trajectories are associated with air doses rate in the immediate post-accident residence, risk communication concerning the residence's air dose is needed.

143. Chiropractors treating patients with acute lower back pain in a spine treatment pathway model: a five-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND CONTEXT Patient access to current best evidence primary care treatment for acute lower back remains highly problematic. Treatment pathway models have the potential to improve patient access to care, provide seamless transitions from one form of treatment to another, optimize clinical outcomes, improve cost-effectiveness and reduce progression to chronic illness /pain. A standardized protocol of hospital-based outpatient clinic chiropractic lumbar spinal manipulative therapy (CSMT) as a component of care for patients with acute lower back pain (ALBP) has been previously validated. PURPOSE To determine the feasibility and patient satisfaction of a community-based standardized chiropractic treatment protocol as a component of a primary care spine treatment pathway in the treatment of patients with ALBP. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Feasibility prospective cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLE Inclusion: Patients with ALBP without radiculopathy of less than 24 weeks; Exclusion: Red flag conditions; SPECT scan positive facet arthropathy; > Grade IV Thompson lumbar disc degeneration at one or more levels; relevant DSM 5 diagnoses; third-party insurer involvement. OUTCOME MEASURES Willingness to participate of ALBP patients and community chiropractors. Rate of compliance with a standardized treatment protocol in community-based chiropractors. Patient wait times, satisfaction scores, pre- and post-VAS and ODI scores, need for additional imaging, rate of discharge from hospital outpatient clinic. METHODS Community-based chiropractors from three British Columbia Provincial Health Regions agreed to accept referrals from a hospital-supervised primary care spine program to treat ALBP patients with a standardized protocol comprised of a maximum four-week course of lumbar spine CSMT only and a lumbar spine flexibility instruction exercise program. Participating patients were seen for follow-up in the hospital spine outpatient clinic at four and eight weeks post-treatment. RESULTS Over the five-year duration of the study, 368/380 (97%) of eligible patients and 21/26 (81%) of community-based chiropractors agreed to participate. Seventeen of 21 chiropractors (81%) consistently administered treatment within the boundaries of the standardized research study protocol. VAS and ODI scores improved significantly in 320/368 (87%) patients. The average wait time for access to treatment was 7.4 days. Eighty-two percent of patients reported high satisfaction scores. The rate of required additional diagnostic imaging was 3%. Rates of discharge from the hospital spine program outpatient clinic with no requested follow-up by six months was 86%. CONCLUSIONS A standardized protocol of CSMT and flexibility exercise instruction administered by community-based chiropractors to a specific cohort of patients with ALBP is a feasible component of a primary care spine treatment pathway. FDA DEVICE/DRUG STATUS This abstract does not discuss or include any applicable devices or drugs.

Prognostic relevance of motor tests in elite girls’ soccer: a five-year prospective cohort study within the German talent promotion program

ABSTRACTIntroduction: While research has provided valuable information about talent predictors, there is a gap regarding female soccer. This study analyzed the prognostic relevance of motor tests for players’ future selection level in female soccer and assessed the role of sex as a moderator variable.Methods: Within the German talent promotion program, N = 499 U12 girls participated in motor diagnostics (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting). Five years later, 14.2% of them made the youth national team (NT), 18.8% the regional association team (RA), and 66.9% were not further selected (NS). The tests’ predictive validity for achieving one of these levels was analyzed using ANOVAs with post-hoc tests and logistic regressions. Subsequently, results were compared to data from previous research with N = 22,843 male U12 players.Results: Girls’ performances in the motor diagnostics significantly discriminated between all three selection levels. Future NT players outperformed NS (d = 1.04) and RA players (d = 0.55), who, in turn, performed better than NS players (d = 0.47). Exception for dribbling, the motor tests demonstrated predictive validity independent of sex.Discussion: Although diagnostics are not sensitive enough to determine individual decisions for talent selection, they provide objective information to supplement coaches’ work.

The Role of Muscle Decline in Type 2 Diabetes Development: A 5-Year Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

The major risk factors of T2DM (type 2 diabetes mellitus) development are still under investigation. We evaluate the possible risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in adult subjects during a five-year prospective cohort study. We recruited 1160 subjects who underwent oral glucose tolerance test, anthropometric measurements, and body composition and body fat distribution analysis at a baseline visit and again at follow-up after approximately five years. The conclusions of this study are based on observation of 219 subjects who attended both the first and follow-up visits. The fasting serum insulin was measured, and HOMA-IR (homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance) was calculated. During the follow-up period, T2DM was diagnosed in 7.4% of participants, impaired fasting glucose in 37.7%, and impaired glucose tolerance in 9.3%. Logistic regression models, adjusted for age, were constructed. The changes in glucose concentration, visceral fat tissue content, insulin resistance, and %loss of muscle mass were chosen as the potential predictors for T2DM development. A set of independent variables was extracted. The constructed feature set comprised change in HOMA-IR (OR (odds ratio) = 1.01, p < 0.01) and change in %loss of muscle mass (OR = 0.84, p < 0.03). With an aim to validate the prediction capability using the selected attributes, a support vector machine classifier and leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied, yielding 92.78% classification accuracy. Our results show the correlation between the %loss of muscle mass and T2DM development in adults, independent of changes in insulin resistance.

Two-Year Changes in Hyperuricemia and Risk of Diabetes: A Five-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

Background Hyperuricemia is known to be a risk factor for diabetes. However, information is limited regarding the association between changes in hyperuricemia and the risk of diabetes. Methods A total of 15,403 participants who were free of diabetes at the time of 2009 and 2011 surveys in the Beijing Health Management Cohort (BHMC) study were recruited and followed up until 2016. Participants were classified into four groups according to 2-year changes in hyperuricemia: no hyperuricemia, remittent hyperuricemia, incident hyperuricemia, and persistent hyperuricemia. Modified Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the effect of 2-year changes in hyperuricemia on the risk of diabetes. Results During the 5-year follow-up, we identified 841 new cases of diabetes (216 women). Remittent hyperuricemia and incident hyperuricemia had a 35% and 48% higher risk for developing diabetes compared with no hyperuricemia. Especially, persistent hyperuricemia was associated with a 75% higher risk of diabetes (RR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.47-2.08). Compared with minor serum uric acid (SUA) change, over 10% decline and over 30% increase in SUA levels were subsequently associated with lower (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.72-0.99) and higher (RR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.27-2.30) diabetes risk, respectively. Conclusions Changes in hyperuricemia, especially persistent hyperuricemia, are more appropriate to reflect the risk of diabetes than a single measurement of hyperuricemia at baseline. Strategies aiming at preventing hyperuricemia are urgently needed to reduce the increasing burden of diabetes.