Fiscal Surveillance Research Articles

Local Government and Citizen in the Period of Crisis in Greece

Greece has been under fiscal surveillance since 2010, due to the economic recession and the fiscal adjustment program agreed between Greece, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The economic recession and the measures taken as a result of this adjustment had a serious impact on Greek society, a large part of which is at risk of poverty or below the poverty line. Local government has suffered the consequences of the economic crisis, yet it has taken initiatives to coordinate actions of volunteer groups, that were activated during this period, to address social problems.

EU Independent Fiscal Institutions: An Assessment of Potential Effectiveness

AbstractThe article explores if EU independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) are in a position to exercise effective scrutiny of national fiscal policies. It identifies substantial heterogeneity across IFIs in resources which is not matched by a similar diversity in mandates. In addition to financial and human resources, better access to information, effective comply‐or‐explain mechanisms and closer links with legislatures could enhance fiscal surveillance and accountability in the EU. The paper provides rankings of individual IFIs constructed based on measures that aggregate these pre‐conditions for effective fiscal scrutiny.

Second Review of the Implementation of Government Finance Statistics Framework to Strengthen Fiscal Analysis

This paper reports on the further developments since 2013 in the implementation of the 2010 Board decision concerning Government Finance Statistics (GFS) to Strengthen Fiscal Analysis, and develops a path to continued improvement of fiscal data in the Fund. The Board decision approved (i) developing a staggered migration strategy, including tailored capacity development inside and outside the Fund taking into consideration country-specific and fiscal surveillance needs; (ii) encouraging staff to continue the effort to routinely assess financial balance sheets during surveillance; (iii) gradually expanding the coverage of fiscal data, taking into consideration country-specific circumstances and fiscal risk assessments; and (iv) reaffirming the support for the phased implementation of the GFS over the medium term.

Inside the black box: The EU’s economic surveillance of national healthcare systems

In the context of macro-economic surveillance, the European Union(EU) increasingly addresses national health system reform. Member States receiving financial assistance are required to implement detailed reforms stipulated in ‘Memorandums of Understanding’ (MoUs). But the health systems in other (non-MoU) countries are also scrutinised in the context of the ‘European Semester’: through this annual policy cycle, the EU has continuously strengthened the tools it uses to enforce compliance. This article aims to open the black box of the EU’s economic surveillance of national healthcare systems by outlining the complex policy architecture of the EU’s newly acquired role in this area. The story of how health has emerged on the European agenda illustrates how the Eurozone crisis created a policy ‘window of opportunity’ to push through fiscal surveillance of health systems as part of the solution to the crisis. The cognitive frameworks put forward by certain elites added up to the primacy of an economic perspective over health objectives. Finally, our analysis of the role of the actors involved in the elaboration of EU guidance in the field of health points to the dominance of ‘economic’ actors and relative absence of ‘health’ actors, in spite of increased attempts by the latter to gain influence.

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innovations in digitalization of government payments and accounting systems mean that real-time daily fiscal data exist in many countries. In this paper, we argue that these data contain valuable, but underutilized and underexploited information. Possible uses include (i) realtime fiscal surveillance which allows for much more timely responses to emerging signs of fiscal stress, and (ii) nowcasting economic activity, which is especially useful in countries where higher frequency GDP statistics are unavailable.

The impact of supranational fiscal rules on public finance: the case of EMU member states

The following paper deals with the topical issue of fiscal surveillance in the EMU. We focus on analysing the impact of the EU's supranational fiscal rules [i.e., the Maastricht criteria for entering the EMU and the subsequent stability and growth pact (SGP)] on the fiscal behaviour of EMU member states in order to acquire new insights into solutions needed to ensure fiscal discipline in the future. With the regression of fiscal reaction functions for the panel of euro area countries, we estimate the changes occurring in discretionary fiscal policy in the Maastricht period and in the period after entering the EMU when the policy became governed by the SGP. Estimates show that EMU member states' discretionary fiscal policy was procyclical in the 1980s, but turned countercyclical in the Maastricht period. In the SGP period, the countercyclical behaviour decreased and fiscal policy became acyclical. We conclude that the difference in fiscal behaviour before and after entering the EMU is the result of a change in the incentives and that solutions should thus also be looked for in creating certain forms of positive incentives for fiscal discipline.

The impact of supranational fiscal rules on public finance: the case of EMU member states

The following paper deals with the topical issue of fiscal surveillance in the EMU. We focus on analysing the impact of the EU's supranational fiscal rules [i.e., the Maastricht criteria for entering the EMU and the subsequent stability and growth pact (SGP)] on the fiscal behaviour of EMU member states in order to acquire new insights into solutions needed to ensure fiscal discipline in the future. With the regression of fiscal reaction functions for the panel of euro area countries, we estimate the changes occurring in discretionary fiscal policy in the Maastricht period and in the period after entering the EMU when the policy became governed by the SGP. Estimates show that EMU member states' discretionary fiscal policy was procyclical in the 1980s, but turned countercyclical in the Maastricht period. In the SGP period, the countercyclical behaviour decreased and fiscal policy became acyclical. We conclude that the difference in fiscal behaviour before and after entering the EMU is the result of a change in the incentives and that solutions should thus also be looked for in creating certain forms of positive incentives for fiscal discipline.

Saldo strukturalne jako wskaźnik oceny polityki fiskalnej w krajach strefy euro

Głównym celem artykułu jest przedstawienie istoty salda strukturalnego w nadzorze fiskalnym strefy euro, scharakteryzowanie jego głównych aspektów metodycznych, oraz analiza kształ­towania się tego salda w krajach strefy euro w okresie wychodzenia z kryzysu. Od czasu pierwszej refor­my Paktu Stabilności i Wzrostu, która miała miejsce w 2005 r., saldo strukturalne odgrywa kluczową rolę w nadzorze fiskalnym w strefie euro. Saldo to jest dostosowane cyklicznie, bez uwzględnienia środków jednorazowych i tymczasowych. Umożliwia ono oszacowanie rozmiaru działań konsolidacyjnych wpro­wadzanych przez kraje członkowskie oraz rozpoznanie rezultatów tych działań.

The future of the European Union: Towards a functional federalism

The series of adverse shocks of both economic and political character that Europe has suffered since 2008, the last of them coming from the Brexit referendum, revealed numerous institutional gaps and asymmetries in the EU integration architecture. They originate from the voluntary nature of the EU project and the necessity to obtain unanimous approval of all member states to take new integration steps. To increase the resilience of the EU project against current and future shocks, its major institutional gaps and asymmetries should be addressed as quickly as possible. In this paper, we use the theory of fiscal federalism and subsidiarity principle to set the agenda of the EU reform. This includes the identification of areas such as completing the EMU and Schengen projects, foreign, security, and defence policies, environmental and climate change policies where further integration can offer substantial returns to scale and better provisions of global and pan-European public goods. On the other hand, there are also areas such as agriculture policy, products, services and labour standards, and fiscal surveillance rules, where deregulation in favour of market forces could ease business environment and make EU regulations less bureaucratic. Developing integration beyond the traditional economic sphere will also have an impact on the size of the EU budget, balance of power between the EU governing bodies (a bigger role of the European Parliament) and the democratic legitimacy of the EU project.

Public finances in Europe: fortifying EU economic governance in the shadow of the crisis

The Eurozone crisis resulted in a decisive change of Europe’s fiscal surveillance regime that brought the question of public finance oversight sharply into focus. The Stability and Growth Pact, the fiscal cornerstone of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), was fortified, expanded and supplemented by the so-called ‘Six Pack’, the ‘Fiscal Compact’ and the ‘Two Pack’. These substantial initiatives all aimed at strengthening the credibility and enforceability of the EMU’s rules-based economic coordination regime through further formal competence transfer and an improvement of the EU’s problem-solving capacity. This article explains that from a process perspective, their adoption showed an ability of the EU polity to produce agreement and find a way out of its chronic institutional paralysis.

IMF Fiscal Surveillance during the Eurozone Crisis

This study analyses the tone and information content of the IMF Article IV Staff Reports during the Eurozone crisis. Researchers create a tone measure denoted WARNING, based on the existing DICTION 7.1 Hardship dictionary. Researchers find that in the run-up to the current credit crises the warnings by the IMF were issued to Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, and Slovenia. In contrast, the more severely hit countries were not warned by the tone of the IMF Article IV Staff Reports. Researchers also conclude that the IMF interactions were more effective with low-income countries and with other emerging economies than they were with advanced and large emerging economies. Individual countries Article IV Staff assessments for Ireland and Spain indicated the warnings by the IMF were only in the years when the countries were deeply in recession and it was too late to provide any policy guidance.

At Cross-purposes: Commercial versus Technocratic Governance of Sovereign Debt in the EU

The governance of EMU was premised on the idea that market discipline, informed by fiscal surveillance, supports the building of a hard currency union. Theory would lead us to expect that the international–commercial and the supranational–technocratic assessments of sovereign debt are fairly aligned. But they were not. We show that credit rating agencies and Eurostat have rather different assessments of what certain policies mean for sovereign debt. These assessments reveal divergent institutional logics of market actors and regulators. Private agencies are prone to conformism and herding behavior, allowing for little consistent discipline, while the public agency follows a bureaucratic imperative of accountability and transparency, which gets in the way of evolving policy priorities. Our findings thus shed light on the difficulties of fiscal governance by regulation only but they also suggest that reforms at the EMU level do not provide quick fixes.

Will “austerity” be a critical juncture in European public sector financial reporting?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse how austerity has impacted to date upon European Union (EU) financial reporting developments and how this might influence future reforms. It considers how a critical juncture in EU financial reporting might be recognized and factors which might prevent or delay such a juncture being realized. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the theoretical conceptualization of the territorializing, mediating, adjudicating and subjectivizing roles of accounting (Miller and Power, 2013), linked to document analysis and interviews with members of the relevant policy communities. In technical terms, austerity makes accounting subject to greater demands for consistency and uniformity. In political terms, accounting is implicated in increasing external fiscal surveillance of sovereign states. Findings – The authors have shown how the Miller-Power framework illuminates these developments. The territorializing role of accounting in sovereign states creates an environm...

Rescuing the Phillips curve

Despite the increased importance of cyclically-adjusted measures of labour market slack for policymaking, estimates of the NAIRU have become increasingly fragile. Particularly for euro area countries, NAIRU estimates represent a crucial input to compute cyclically-adjusted budget balances adopted to formulate medium-term fiscal objectives under the EU fiscal surveillance framework. However, the apparent reduced sensitivity of inflation to labour market dynamics and unemployment gaps seriously undermines the use of Phillips curve equations in estimating the NAIRU. Estimates of the NAIRU are particularly problematic when changes in unemployment are both very large and rapid as in the aftermath of the global crisis. This paper proposes a refinement to the standard OECD approach of using a Kalman filter to estimate the NAIRU in the context of the Phillips curve. The proposed refinement strengthens the relationship between inflation and labour market developments by considering the risk of hysteresis effects associated with changes in long-term unemployment. Testing the revised methodology on a broad selection of OECD countries gives mixed results. For a group of countries in the euro area periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) there is an increase in the magnitude and statistical significance of the unemployment gap, with the NAIRU revised upward by on average 1¾ percentage points. However, the revised methodology provides less improvement to the standard OECD methodology for a second set of countries considered, namely the G7 excluding Italy. The United States is an interesting intermediate case as the statistical evidence for the proposed methodology is marginal, but the policy implications of the revised point estimate of the NAIRU are major. JEL classification: C32, E24, E31, E32, J64. Keywords: Long-term unemployment, flattening Phillips curve, NAIRU, euro area periphery, Kalman filter.

Update on the Fiscal Transparency Initiative

This paper provides an update on staff’s work on a new Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC) and experiences with the initial pilot Fiscal Transparency Evaluations (FTE), the ground work for which was laid in a 2012 paper “Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Risk.” Both are part of ongoing efforts by the Fiscal Affairs Department, in cooperation with other departments, to strengthen the Fund’s fiscal surveillance and capacity building. The new FTC and FTE reflect the lessons of the recent crisis, incorporate developments in international standards, and build on feedback from consultations with stakeholders.

Searching Under the Lamp-Post: The Evolution of Fiscal Surveillance

Fiscal surveillance was developed as a supranational regulatory process to counteract short-termism and deficit biases in government decision-making. With effective monetary policy to stabilize the economy, restraint on the fiscal discretion of national governments was seen as the key to macroeconomic stability. The financial crisis and its aftermath challenge this paradigm. Private debt caused the crisis and monetary policy is so weak that pro-cyclical fiscal retrenchment could worsen fiscal outturns. We argue, contrary to the ‘disciplinarian’ interpretation of the Stability and Growth Pact, that the regulatory process of fiscal surveillance is strongly affected by the potential perversities of fiscal restraint and is therefore resistant to the prescription of austerity. This claim is developed by tracing the technical difficulties encountered by fiscal surveillance since the financial crisis. The crisis has so destabilized expectations of the performance of the economy and the proper scope of government that the statistical and economic norms of surveillance have been undermined. We conclude that the problem with fiscal surveillance is not that the EU inflicts undue fiscal discipline on member states, but rather that the EU institutions are unable to protect member states against bond market panic, and therefore cannot coordinate stabilizing fiscal policies.

English

  This paper assesses plans of the East African Community (EAC) to create a single currency for the five countries making up the region, and considers how best to achieve it. While the benefits of lower transactions costs from a common currency may be significant, countries will also lose the ability to use monetary policy to respond to different shocks. Evidence presented shows that the countries differ in a number of respects, facing asymmetric shocks and different production structures. Countries have had difficulty meeting convergence criteria, most seriously as concerns fiscal deficits. Preparation for monetary union will require effective institutions for macroeconomic surveillance and enforcing fiscal discipline, and euro zone experience indicates that these institutions will be difficult to design and take a considerable time to become effective. This suggests that a timetable for monetary union in the EAC should allow for a substantial initial period of institution building. In order to have some visible evidence of the commitment to monetary union, in the meantime the EAC may want to consider introducing a common basket currency in the form of notes and coin, to circulate in parallel with national currencies.   Key words: EAC monetary union, fiscal surveillance, optimum currency areas, parallel currencies, regional integration.

Municipal Responses to Fiscal Austerity: The Thai Case

This article discusses the use and determinants of fiscal retrenchment strategies of Thai municipalities during the FY 2009/2010 economic downturn. Based on a survey of over 900 municipalities, the author finds that Thai municipal government did not prepare itself for a declining economy. It mainly employed short-term strategies by cutting down line-item and miscellaneous spending rather than utilizing more fiscally sustained schemes such as increasing the revenue from untapped resources or applying more stringent budgetary control measures. Reasons for the fiscal adaptation were several but mainly stemmed from the declining fiscal conditions during the recession as exhibited by fund balance ratio and debt service payment. The findings indicate that Thai municipalities are running at fiscal risk due to inadequate preparation for economic fluctuation and suggest that a local fiscal surveillance system be put in place.

A Comparative Analysis of Reverse Majority Voting: The WTO's Dispute Settlement Mechanism, the EU Anti-Dumping Policy and the Reinforced SGP and Fiscal Compact

The reinforced Stability and Growth Pact entered into force in December 2011 with a new set of rules for economic and fiscal surveillance of the EU Member States. To strengthen the effective enforcement the SGP introduced the policy innovation of reverse qualified majority voting in the EU Council. Under reverse qualified majority voting the European Commission can impose a sanction on a Member State unless the Council votes against with a qualified majority within a specified period. This paper discusses the motivation and the impact of the new voting rule on EU Council decision-making and the Member States. It presents a comparative analysis of three cases where different types of reverse majority voting have been introduced, i.e. the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Trade Organisation, the EU trade defence policy and the reinforced SGP and Fiscal Compact. The comparison demonstrates that reverse majority voting considerably lowers the majority threshold to pass proposals rendering their adoption almost automatic in the EU Council of Ministers. As a result, the reverse majority rule increases the discretion of the executive relative to the legislative power. Moreover, evidence from the WTO’s dispute settlement and the EU’s antidumping policy suggests that the automaticity is also likely to change the balance between the rule- and political-based decision-making in the area of fiscal and budgetary EU policy. These findings chime with the growing role of majority-based decision-making in an enlarged EU of 27 Member States. However, the findings also highlight the potential trade-off between decision-making capacity and legitimacy particularly in an area considered to be traditionally part of the EU Member States’ national sovereignty.

Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy

This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation.