Brazilian Fiscal Policy Research Articles

Brazilian Fiscal Policy and Its Procyclical Nature: A Long-Term Analysis

Fiscal policy should be contractionary during economic expansion and expansionary during recessions. The objective of this article is to investigate the nature of long-term discretionary fiscal policy in Brazil in relation to the level of economic activity and the terms of trade. A fiscal policy variable without cyclical effects was chosen, and the results of the cointegration analysis indicate that long-term fiscal policy is destabilizing; this findings parallels those in the literature. However, in regard to trade cycles, this policy prevents their amplification.

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil through the MIDAS Lens

This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Brazil between 1999 and 2017. For this purpose, a novel methodology is applied, using a Vector Autoregressive with Mixed Frequency (MIDAS-VAR) model, proposed by Ghysels (2016), which allows for the estimation of the spending multiplier by measuring the impact of high-frequency data at low-frequency and vice versa. The impact of various types of spending on the gross domestic product (GDP) is analyzed, including primary expenditure, personnel, social benefits, subsidies, investment, and costing, while the central government’s primary revenue is used as the revenue variable. The expenditure and tax revenue are the high-frequency variables (monthly observations), whereas GDP is a low-frequency series (quarterly). The estimated fiscal multipliers for primary spending are less than one, suggesting no significant Keynesian effect on output, with particular attention given to the investment multiplier, which is estimated to be close to zero. Our results suggest that the frequency of data matters, and government expenditure has no significant impact on real GDP growth in Brazil. Therefore, the ability of Brazilian fiscal policy to influence economic growth may be limited.

Uncertainties and disagreements in expectations of professional forecasters: Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country

AbstractThis paper investigates whether news‐based measures of economic uncertainty affect professional forecasters' disagreement about economic variables and economic policy instruments in Brazil. With the use of an “Economic Policy Uncertainty” index and a “Media Uncertainty” index to construct an index of economic uncertainty unrelated to policy, we study the effects of economic policy uncertainty and policy‐unrelated economic uncertainty on professional forecasters' disagreement. With the use of data from January 2002 to January 2021, we find that disagreements in expectations increase with both higher economic policy uncertainty and higher policy‐unrelated economic uncertainty. An exception is disagreement about future inflation, corroborating the importance inflation targeting for anchoring inflation expectations. We further show that economic policy uncertainty affects disagreement about Brazilian fiscal policy, whereas it does not affect disagreement about Brazilian monetary policy.

Fiscal and monetary policy rules in Brazil: empirical evidence of monetary and fiscal dominance

Based on the hypothesis that the rules of monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil may have been subject to different regimes, the present study applies the Leeper model (1991 and 2005) to identify the chronology of policy regimes in terms of their active and passive character. The policy rules are estimated using the Markov-switching model, with a monthly database from November 2002 to December 2015, in which the regimes are endogenously determined. The results obtained indicate that fiscal dominance occurred in 2010 and between 2013 and 2014, while monetary dominance marked much of 2003 and the period 2005–2007. The model also seeks to explain why the inflation rate continued to rise during 2015 even though Central Bank of Brazil took an active monetary policy stance that year.

Fiscal Responsability: An Investigation into the Credibility of Brazilian Tax Policy after the LRF

The Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) promulgation in 2000 was a milestone in the establishment of fiscal rules nationwide. The balance of public accounts and debt sustainability are necessary conditions for prolonged economic growth and, through the expectations of private agents, affect the economy's investment rate. The objective of the research was to verify whether, during the 20 years of the LRF, there is a perception of credibility in the Brazilian fiscal policy. For this, the VAR model was used to ascertain the behavior of private agents' expectations in relation to public debt and the primary result, obtained in the Focus report of the Central Bank (BACEN). As an additional contribution, it analyzed the effects of the expectations of these fiscal indicators on the investment rate. The results showed that these effects are relevant and suggest a compromise in the credibility of private agents in national fiscal policy in the analyzed period.

Changes in the revenue–expenditure nexus: confronting evidence with fiscal policy in Brazil

ABSTRACT This study examines causality shifts in the revenue–expenditure nexus in Brazil during the years 1996–2019. The literature usually assumed a time-invariant causality link between government revenues and expenditures. Such assumption becomes often implausible when the sample period covers significant economic, political and policy changes, like the case of Brazil in the last two decades. Based on time-varying Granger causality tests, we found three distinct causality episodes: fiscal synchronization in 2005–2008, spend-and-tax in 2010–2013, and a tax-and-spend in 2015–2018. These episodes are intercalated with periods of no causality that coincides with economic crisis, political turmoil and major shifts in fiscal policy. The findings suggest that the interplay between fiscal policy orientation and primary surplus targeting is an important factor in the revenue–expenditure nexus. The most recent causality episode suggests stronger effects running from revenues to expenditures in the Brazilian primary budget dynamics. In this context, according to the tax-and-spend hypothesis, cutting spending seems to be the right course of action to restore fiscal balance in Brazil. A tax increase should be considered with caution because it may only incentive the government to grow its expenditures.

Public sector accounting and fiscal policy in Brazil (1906–1931): foreign credit negotiation and political use

ABSTRACT During the First Republic (1889–1930), also known as the Old Republic, and the Provisional Government of Getúlio Vargas (1930–1934), Brazilian public sector accounting institutions underwent a phase of accelerated reforms. This study examines how budgetary imbalances, political interference in the ways of calculating the budget results, and foreign loan negotiations affected these reforms. We analyse primary and secondary sources to establish the link between the reforms of accounting institutions, budgetary policy, and foreign loan negotiations. The analysis is qualitative and instrumentally employs the concepts of institutions and public accountability. We utilise quantitative data to provide a picture of the Brazilian fiscal context. The collected evidence indicates that the financing of coffee stocks gave rise to the reinforcement of the double-entry bookkeeping method in the State of São Paulo in 1906. It also shows that the federal fiscal imbalances required foreign financing and that the loan negotiations induced changes in the Treasury’s accounting in 1914, in the regulation of the Central Accounting Office in 1924, and in the Accounting Code in 1931. We argue that the search for calculative legitimacy for political programmes led to interference in the Central Accounting Office in 1927 and 1931, which affected the comparability of budgetary results.

Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: a structural break analysis

PurposeThe objective of this work is to investigate the existence of structural breaks in multicointegration models estimated for Brazilian fiscal variables and to identify their effects on the sustainability or not of this country`s fiscal policy between December 1997 and June 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply the econometric multicointegration method, in order to analyze long-term relationships between accumulated revenue and expenses of Brazilian central government and the stock of its debt, incorporating structural breaks, over the study period.FindingsThe unsustainability of the debt/GDP ratio is found here, as in a previous work, but now considering a structural break. As one of the contributions, the present work makes it possible to identify the date as of which Brazilian fiscal policy may have become unsustainable: May 2014.Originality/valueThe work points out the worsening of Brazilian fiscal situation as of 2014. The authors adapted original methodologies both in model specification and in the stationarity test used. The estimated parameters before and after structural break allow for identifying changes in fiscal variables that may have led to unsustainability, thus providing possible guidance for fiscal policy.

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

According to Bohn (1995), conventional econometric analysis of sustainability, based on unit root tests on the government debt-to-GDP series or cointegration analysis between revenues and expenses, are inconclusive to verify the sustainability of the fiscal policy. This paper uses the multicointegration method to investigatethe validity of a long-term relationship between the Brazilian government`s accumulated revenues and expenses and its debt, all expressed as a proportion of GDP. Leachman et al. (2005) argue that this technique allows concluding about the sustainability or not of fi scal policy. The present work considers specificationsthat allow evaluating the reaction of both accumulated revenues and expenses to changes in the debt-to-GDP, using monthly data from December 1997 to June 2018. We conclude that the Brazilian fiscal policy was unsustainable over the study period, due to the excessive government spending and its growing trajectory, mainly at the end of the sample.

Public Sector Financial Fragility Index: an analysis of the Brazilian federal government from 2000 to 2016

This article adapts the Public Sector Financial Fragility Index to exam the Brazilian federal government financial posture over 2000–2016. This Index enables examining public finances based on Minsky’s financial fragility hypothesis. The paper undertakes three analyses: one explores the federal government financial fragility using the borrowing requirements data, which is the standard series to assess public finances. The second analysis makes use of the budget execution data, comprising all governmental cash flows, including the financial revenues and expenses but excluding credit operations, which are new debt borrowed by the government; this new debt is considered in the third analysis. The outcomes show that, in its borrowing requirements, the Brazilian government was Speculative over 2000–2013, and Ponzi from 2014 to 2016. Applying the Index to the budget execution data, Brazil was Speculative throughout the period. Considering the budget execution added with credit operations, Brazil was mostly Hedge, although artificially, because built on new debt and not on government revenues. Parallelly, the Index enables analyzing the type of the Brazilian fiscal policy, if pro or countercyclical: it was chiefly procyclical, maintaining Speculative and Ponzi postures whilst the GDP grew, a diverse behavior in relation to the Post Keynesian proposition.

An Analysis of the Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Brazil

This paper examines monetary and fiscal policy rules in Brazil for the period 2003-2014, based on a New Keynesian Macro Model estimated via GMM System. The main results show an aggregate demand focused on the lagged GDP output and on GDP growth expectations. As for inflation, the use of hybrid Phillips curve, as well as the influence of the exchange rate, seems to be the case for Brazil. Regarding the Taylor Rule, the Central Bank’s reaction is gradual, via interest rate smoothing, and the expected inflation and GDP are important for the determination of the rule. Therefore, monetary policy seems to be counter-cyclical. As for the Fiscal Policy Rule, the dynamics of economic activity leads to a decrease in the public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR), as % of GDP, which is an indication of a counter-cyclical fiscal policy and coordination of economic policies. However, this may only indicate that GDP grows faster than PSBR, and not that the latter is decreasing. As a result, it is not possible to assure that the Brazilian fiscal policy is actually coordinated with the country’s monetary policy. JEL codes : E52, E63, C32 Online Appendix

Fiscal Multipliers in Brazil: A Sensitivity Analysis on the Structural Identification Procedure

The present study measured the effectiveness of Brazilian fiscal policy (the effects of fiscal shocks on output) through several specifications of SVAR models. The focus was on the impact of tax shocks on output, but spending shocks effects were also estimated. Two databases for fiscal variables were used: the official data from National Treasury and a set of alternative data by Gobetti and Orair [1]. The tax multiplier depends on the assumption about the sensitivity of government’s revenue to output: the greater the sensitivity, the greater is the tax multiplier. The preferred estimates of tax multipliers in this paper are higher than other estimates in the Brazilian literature. In most identifications both spending and tax (impact) multipliers are below unit.

Fiscal policy in Brazil in Real Plan: pro or countercyclical?

The methodology of Structural Balance Budget proposed by the IMF and OECD is applied to Brazil from 1997 to 2013 with the objective to identify the behavior of fiscal policy. This methodology, according to the international literature, is an very important instrument, once it takes into account the effect of the business cycle on public finances. The results showed that fiscal policy, as a countercyclical instrument, began to be used from 2004 or 2005, depending on the methodology. In the period in which the country suffered the greatest consequences of the subprime crisis, fiscal policy proved to be a very well used tool to mitigate the effects of the crisis. One reason for the improvement of the use of fiscal policy, at this period, was the decrease in the stock of public debt, provided by primary surpluses occurred in previous years. This results are in line with those found by public finances researchers. Thus, the pre-crisis fiscal situation has become an important element in the performance of countercyclical fiscal policies. Furthermore, both methodologies did not show large differences among themselves.

Post-2008 Brazilian fiscal policy: an interpretation through the analysis of fiscal multipliers

Abstract The global crisis that erupted in 2007 led many countries to embark on countercyclical fiscal policies as a way to cushion the blow of a depressed aggregate demand. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that fiscal policy can indeed stimulate the economy. The main goal of this work is to assess whether the fiscal policies pursued by the Brazilian government in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, succeeded in bringing the economy back on track in a sustainable fashion. To this end, the fiscal multipliers of five different shocks are studied in a small open-economy New Keynesian framework. Our results point to the government spending and public investment as the most effective fiscal tools for combating the crisis. However, the highest fiscal multiplier turned out to be the one associated with excise tax reductions.

Is Fiscal Policy Effective in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil. With a sample spanning from 1997 to 2014, we are not able to obtain evidence of the relevant impacts of fiscal stimuli on output, even when altering both the methodology and the model specifications. Our most robust estimate of the government spending fiscal multiplier is approximately 0.5. Higher multipliers are reported using Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) and other approaches, but they are not robust because of specifications issues, i.e., failure to accept the null hypothesis in the specification tests. Finally, we discuss plausible explanations for such ineffectiveness of fiscal policy. Among several factors highlighted by the economic literature, we suggest that the consistent increases in Brazilian government expenditure undermine the importance of fiscal shocks. This effect could explain the fiscal conundrum manifested in Brazil.

Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil: long- and short-term relationships using cointegration and error correction model (2005-2015)

This article analyses the nature of the fiscal rule in Brazil, during the period from January 2005 to April 2015, by using a VEC model. The main findings indicate that Brazil's fiscal policy is a pro-cyclical one regarding public debt and inflation, thus contributing to understand why the public debt/GDP ratio presents a unit root over the last years. Moreover, it means that fiscal reactions were not consistent with the inflation targeting regime in Brazil.

Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil: long- and short-term relationships using cointegration and error correction model (2005-2015)

This article analyses the nature of the fiscal rule in Brazil, during the period from January 2005 to April 2015, by using a VEC model. The main findings indicate that Brazil's fiscal policy is a pro-cyclical one regarding public debt and inflation, thus contributing to understand why the public debt/GDP ratio presents a unit root over the last years. Moreover, it means that fiscal reactions were not consistent with the inflation targeting regime in Brazil.

O desafio macroeconômico de 2015-2018

RESUMOEste artigo apresenta uma perspectiva macroeconômica do Brasil no final de 2014 e uma análise dos principais desafios à sua política macroeconômica nos anos subsequentes. De um lado, a análise é focada na relação entre as taxas de juros, o crescimento e a taxa de câmbio real. Por outro lado, o documento também analisa os múltiplos aspectos e problemas da política fiscal no Brasil.

As armadilhas do tripé da política macroeconômica brasileira

RESUMOEste artigo analisa o chamado tripé da política macroeconômica brasileira, que desde 1999 tem combinado um regime de metas de inflação, um regime de taxa de câmbio flutuante e metas de superávit fiscal primário. A menos que o seu modus operandi seja alterado, o tripé não será capaz de libertar a economia brasileira de outra "possível trindade": altas taxas de juros reais, a apreciação da taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico muito baixo. Depois de analisar brevemente a base teórica sob o tripé macroeconômico, o artigo mostra por que este regime de política macroeconômica, se avaliado numa perspectiva de longo ou médio prazo, não tem sido capaz de garantir a estabilidade dos preços nem o crescimento econômico. Além da sugestão de romper com a estratégia brasileira de crescer com poupança externa, o documento também sugere três principais formas de mudar o modus operandi do tripé brasileiro: i) aumentar o horizonte de tempo para atingir a meta de inflação, como tem sido o experiência da maioria dos países que adotam esse regime de política monetária; ii) restaurar o papel anticíclico da política fiscal brasileira; e iii) adotar uma combinação de mecanismos que visem prevenir que a moeda brasileira entre em uma nova tendência cíclica da apreciação em termos reais.

Sustainability of Brazilian fiscal policy, once again: corrective policy response over time

<title>Abstract</title><p>This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function for Brazil and investigates how the government's fiscal reaction has changed over time when controlling for cyclical variations in output and the relative participation of indexed debt. Using monthly data since 1991, we estimate a rolling reaction function with a one observation step and a sample-window of 12 observations. Our results indicate that the government's fiscal response has been such that a one percent increase in the debt-GDP ratio can be associated to an average increase in the primary surplus of approximately 0.096% over GDP or 9.6 basis points; the government's fiscal reaction has become more stable but less responsive to the debt-income level after 2000 and assumed a declining trend after 2006.</p>