Active Fiscal Policy Research Articles

Has Fiscal Policy Saved the Great Recession?

In a fixed-regime setting, it is known since Leeper (1991) that both monetary dominance (mix of active monetary and passive fiscal policies) and fiscal dominance (mix of active fiscal and passive monetary policies) regimes yield a determinate unique equilibrium. This paper shows that in a regime-switching context, switches from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance regimes (and vice-versa) render the overall economy indeterminate for standard parameter values. We apply our results to the important case of the exit from the zero lower bound (ZLB), where monetary policy is inherently passive. Contrary to the fixed regime prediction, the economy switching between the ZLB in a fiscally led regime and a monetary dominance regime is robustly indeterminate, making the coordination of agents' beliefs hard because both monetary and fiscal policies are overall strongly passive.

The Impact of Economics and Financial Literacy in How People Perceive the Effectiveness of the Fiscal Policy of Zimbabwe: Case Study of Harare

This paper investigates the relationship between the perceived Zimbabwean Fiscal Policy (FP) outcomes and the preferences of the people of Zimbabwe, resident in the city of Harare in the context of the Fiscal Policy Framework (FPF) of Zimbabwe. It looks at how people are aware and confident about the FP actions and institutional frameworks in charge of formulating and implementing FP actions and also how the activities of people complement the FP actions. It looks at the influence of financial and economics literacy on how people understand and respond to FP actions. To make the investigation robust, data was obtained from across different occupations. Governments get elected to a large extent on the basis of their FP. The nature of FP is political on its own. Hence it is important gauge what areas of the FP process need to be adjusted to ensure that the people become positive about those in charge of the FP formulation and implementation together with the FP tools being used. Results obtained from the investigation showed areas where there is rent seeking and time inconsistency showing that serious reforms of the FPF of Zimbabwe are needed to ensure that optimal macroeconomic outcomes are achieved. A serious lack of awareness of the setup of the FP framework of Zimbabwe showed that there must be widespread and effective communication by the authorities on the nature of the FP operations being implemented to ensure that people on the ground complement government efforts to improve the economic performance of Zimbabwe.

Consequences of Fiscal Adjustment and Public Finance Management. The Costs of Limiting the Fiscal Imbalance in Eurozone Countries

Abstract This article focuses on the effects of corrections to the budgetary policy in eurozone economies. The goal of the text is to check if advancement in implementing modern tools of public management is helpful in the time of fiscal adjustment. We assume that the most important role of a performance approach in conducting fiscal policy is the ability of government to implement active policy meant as structural changes in the composition of public expenditures. In the case of the need to cut general levels of public spending, public sector managers who have knowledge of performance effects of public policies should be able to conduct fiscal adjustment in such a way as to minimise negative outcomes of spending correction on society. The structure of the text is as follows. First, we present some insights on the economic effects of fiscal adjustment. Then, we discuss the concept of performance management presented in the theory and policy agendas of international institutions such as the European Union or the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Finally, we present the result of an empirical exercise that is designed to combine the level of advancement in implementing performance budgeting (PB) and the social cost of fiscal adjustment in eurozone economies. The most important finding of the research is that PB tools seem to have very limited usefulness in a time of fiscal adjustment. There is no statistical evidence that countries advanced in utilisation of PB tools conduct more active fiscal policy – approach of cutting all expenditures across the border by given percentage rather than looking at priorities and social outcomes of fiscal adjustment dominates in all cases.

Modelling of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in the Republic of Belarus

The article discusses classical and modern macroeconomic models of interaction of fiscal and monetary policies in Belarus. The hypothesis of this research is that the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies has a synergistic effect on economic growth and that at certain stages, one of these policies prevails over the other. This hypothesis was tested with the help of an IS-LM model, which was used to investigate the joint effects of monetary and fiscal policies on business activity in Belarus. A Markov switching model was developed in Eviews software to analyze the interaction between these policies. Regression dependences of the average tax burden (including the burden imposed by social security contributions) and GDP, investment and the refinancing rate were built by using Excel software. To solve the IS-LM model, the value of autonomous consumption was computed with the help of the adjusted value of the average propensity to consume. It was found that autonomous consumption is comparable with the budget of subsistence minimum in Belarus. The share of government spending in the GDP structure was on average 35.01%. The comparison of gross savings and investment showed that in the majority of periods, gross savings insignificantly exceeded the amount of investment, that is, the available funds were used for consumer lending rather than for investment. Analysis of the Markov switching model has led us to the conclusion that from the first quarter 2005 until the fourth quarter of 2009, the fiscal policy in Belarus was in the active regime. The passive fiscal policy regime was observed in the period between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2019. In this period, a rise in the public debt was accompanied by an increase in the budget surplus. In the second quarter of 2019, there was a transition to a more active fiscal policy, which points to the need to intensify tax reforms.

Ramsey Optimal Policy versus Multiple Equilibria with Fiscal and Monetary Interactions

We consider a frictionless constant endowment economy based on Leeper (1991). In this economy, it is shown that, under an ad-hoc monetary rule and an ad-hoc fiscal rule, there are two equilibria. One has active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy, while the other has passive monetary policy and active fiscal policy. We consider an extended set-up in which the policy maker minimizes a loss function under quasi-commitment, as in Schaumburg and Tambalotti (2007). Under this formulation there exists a unique Ramsey equilibrium, with an interest rate peg and a passive fiscal policy.

Fiscal Activism in the Euro Area and in Other Advanced Economies: New Evidence

We review the determinants of the discretionary fiscal policy action of governments in the euro area and in other advanced economies during the past 20 years. This is done by estimating fiscal reaction functions using dynamic panel techniques and country-by-country estimates. The results suggest that, on average, discretionary fiscal policy did not deliver economic stabilisation: during good economic times (positive output gaps) it has been on average pro-cyclical both in the euro area and in the other regions. However, the loosening bias during good times has been countered by the presence of efficient public institutions, higher long term interest rates and higher debt-to-GDP ratios. Overall, as a result of various counterbalancing forces, fiscal activism has not been a major feature of policy making in the euro area, nor in other advanced economies during the past 20 years. JEL Classification: E62, H6, C23

The Action Mechanism Between Government Debt and Financial Market In China: Analysis of China's Twenty Year History Data Combined With DAG and SVAR

This paper uses the sample data of financial market, economic prosperity and government debt related indicators from 1997 to 2017 in China, and uses DAG and SVAR models to study the linkage mechanism among macroeconomic variables. The results show that there is a causal relationship between financial market, economic prosperity and government debt, and the former two are the transmitter of volatility factors, the latter is the receiver. In the long run, the impact of global economic and capital market volatility on China’s government debt risk is significantly higher than the real estate industry and price level and other domestic factors. Active fiscal policy will make the risk of government debt show a rising trend, it is worth noting that the development of financial markets and economic prosperity can reduce the impact of fiscal policy on the economy, thereby alleviating the risk of government debt.

Assessing activist fiscal policy in advanced and emerging market economies using real-time data

We examine activist fiscal policy in advanced and emerging economies using an innovative methodology. We contribute to the existing literature on fiscal policy cyclicality by conducting real-time data analysis for a broad set of countries that include 23 advanced and 30 emerging market economies. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to extend the real-time data analysis to countries other than advanced economies. We also examine the impact of the global financial crisis. Our main findings show that discretionary fiscal policy in advanced economies is planned as countercyclical before the global financial crisis, but its implementation turned procyclical after the crisis. The emerging economies had weakly countercyclical discretionary fiscal policy plans, which enabled them to implement countercyclical fiscal policy after the global financial crisis.

Stock market reaction to policy interventions

ABSTRACTWe analyse stock price reactions to the announcements of monetary and fiscal policy actions in 12 stock exchanges worldwide between 1 June 2007 and 30 June 2012. While past papers have analysed the effect of policy interventions focusing on monetary policy actions (e.g. Ricci 2015), our paper focuses on stock indices either capturing the whole stock market or various industries. By estimating abnormal stock reactions around the announcement date, we show that (1) stock industry indices react to policy interventions in a different manner than the broad stock index does; (2) stock returns react negatively to restriction measures for general and non-banking sector indices; and (3) stock reaction to expansionary measures was stronger at the beginning of the financial crisis.

US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict

AbstractFiscal policy shocks exert wide‐reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and divided government leads not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between fiscal policy and asset prices in the US economy conditional on the degree of partisan conflict. We analyze whether a higher degree of partisan conflict (legislative gridlock) reduces the efficacy of the effect and response of fiscal policy on and to asset price movements, respectively. We find that partisan conflict does not significantly affect the relationships between the fiscal surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) and housing and equity returns. Rather, if important, partisan conflict affects the actual implementation of fiscal policy actions.

An Analysis of China's Money Supply and Its Changes in 2008-2010

China divides the money supply into three levels: cash in circulation M0, cash that flows outside the banking system; the second is the narrow money supply M1, that is, M0 plus the deposit of enterprises and institutions; Money supply M2, that is, M1 plus enterprises and institutions of time deposits, household savings deposits and other deposits. In September 2008, China's monetary policy moderates easing in response to the serious impact of the international financial crisis. At the beginning of 2009, the State Council put forward an annual growth of about 17% M2, more than 5 trillion yuan of new loans, relative to the expected 8% GDP growth rate and 4% of the CPI index is still a moderately easy monetary policy. China's monetary policy this shift is correct, strong with the government's active fiscal policy, the role of economic stabilization and recovery is more obvious.

Econometric model of Russian Federation: analysis and forecasts for 2018 - 2019

Abstract The paper describes an econometric model of the Russian economy which is tailored to analyze and explain current trends in Russian economy and to forecast its dynamics for the next 2 years. The model showed that if all exogenous variables (export and import prices, the money mass and economically active population, etc.) will have the same dynamics they had during last years the average annual growth rate of Russian economy for the next two years will be about 1 - 2 % annually while inflation will increase to about 8 - 9 % annually. Active monetary policy increases the short-term economic growth only slightly but helps to improve investment in fixed capital. Active fiscal policy has negative impact on economic growth. Such outcome is the result of reduction of total factor productivity of Russian economy and of inadequate investment.

The Power of Forward Guidance and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Standard New Keynesian models predict implausibly large and favorable responses of inflation and output to expansionary forward guidance on interest rates. We find that the introduction of permanent or recurring active fiscal policy dampens the response of output and inflation to forward guidance in the New Keynesian model. Moreover, the presence of regime-switching policy introduces expectation e ects that cause forward guidance to be less stimulative in our regime-switching model's active money, passive fiscal policy regime. Finally, the introduction of long-term debt a ects the magnitude of the stimulus resulting from forward guidance in models with active fiscal policy.

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Ukraine: TVP and VAR/VEC Approaches

Objective: The purpose of this article is to investigate fiscal sustainability in Ukraine, using quarterly data sample for the period between 2000 and 2016, in accordance with a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio developed by Croce and Juan-Ramon (2003). Research Design & Methods: An assessment of fiscal sustainability in Ukraine is provided according to a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, developed by Croce and Juan-Ramon (2003). Both time-varying parameters (TVP) and vector error-correction autoregression (VAR/VEC) models are used. Findings: It is found that there is causality running from the budget surplus to the gap between real interest rate and GDP growth rate, however it is not sufficient to guarantee a sustainable debt to GDP ratio. Implications & Recommendations: Our findings argue in favour of fiscal policy actions aimed at an increase in the government revenues, combined with the public sector expenditure cuts, as current policies do not seem to be sufficient to achieve fiscal sustainability. A more detailed study is needed in order to identify most efficient approaches for a decrease in the budget deficit across a detailed ‘menu’ of expenditure and revenues. Any attempts to decrease interest rate and/or stimulate output growth by an expansionary monetary stance are likely to be counterproductive in the presence of substantial public external debt. Contribution & Value Added: This empirical study provides an indication of the possibility of default on foreign public debt liabilities in Ukraine.

Investigating the twin-deficit phenomenon among oil-exporting countries: Does oil really matter?

This study empirically investigates the existence of twin deficits—the impact of fiscal policy on the current account—among selected major oil-exporting countries. Given the huge effects of the oil proceeds on these economies, the study separates the effects of oil on the fiscal balance from its effect on the current account balance. The investigation took a further step by grouping these countries—based on their fiscal policy actions over the period of years under review—into pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical fiscal countries. In line with the existing literature, the impact of fiscal balance on the current account balance takes into consideration the contemporaneous effects brought about by exchange rate fluctuations, the growth in GDP, rate of openness and the growth in money supply. The models are estimated based on a panel of 31 oil-exporting countries over the period 1984–2013, using the two-stage least squares estimation techniques. The results from all countries estimations reveal the existence of twin-deficit in the total economy. In the non-oil economy, on the other hand, the evidence of twin-deficit disappears. This evidence is also reported in the counter-cyclical fiscal countries. Results from pro-cyclical fiscal countries indicated the total opposite, revealing the existence of twin-deficit in the non-oil economy, while this evidence does not occur in the total economy. The indisputable conclusion is that oil dominance continues to blur the existence of twin deficits among the oil-exporting countries.

U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict

Fiscal policy shocks exert wide‐reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and divided government leads not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between fiscal policy and asset prices in the US economy conditional on the degree of partisan conflict. We analyze whether a higher degree of partisan conflict (legislative gridlock) reduces the efficacy of the effect and response of fiscal policy on and to asset price movements, respectively. We find that partisan conflict does not significantly affect the relationships between the fiscal surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) and housing and equity returns. Rather, if important, partisan conflict affects the actual implementation of fiscal policy actions.

Can a comparative capitalism approach explain fiscal policy activism?

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the implications of models of capitalism for the responsiveness of countries’ fiscal policies during business cycles using new data for member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and China. We expand the literature by adding the category of East Asian nonliberal capitalism to the established distinction of liberal market economies and nonliberal coordinated market economies. These three differ substantially not just in their fiscal policies, but also in monetary policies, degree of financial market orientation, exchange rate regime, and labor market organization. As in previous studies, we find that governments of liberal economies adopt more countercyclical fiscal policies. Departing from existing studies, however, among the nonliberal models of capitalism, (East Asian) state-led models have more countercyclical fiscal policies than (European) coordinated market economies, perhaps as countercyclical as liberal economies, both historically and during the 2007–9 crisis. This is due to less independent central banks, managed float of exchange rates, and limited financial market orientation and financial openness in East Asia, which allow for more active fiscal policy. Among political factors, left-of-center governments, fractionalized party systems, and election years are associated weakly with countercyclical fiscal policy, as expected. Labor market coordination and welfare generosity have unclear roles in regard to fiscal policy, a topic for future research.

Interaction of Government Tiers and Central Banks in a Federation: An Empirical Test

AbstractFiscal rules are necessary to protect monetary policy from the consequences of unsustainable or active fiscal policy for inflation. Monetary unions, such as the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), require even stronger fiscal rules to avoid free riding by regional fiscal authorities on the common monetary policy. By contrast, in a fiscal federation, the federal government internalises the effect of active regional policies on the overall price level. Federal fiscal policy contributes to price stability either by enforcing fiscal rules or by adjusting its own stance. Following Canzoneri, Cumby and Diba (2001), we test whether federal and regional governments in Germany behave in an active or passive way. We find evidence of a spillover effect of unsustainable policies on other regions. The German federal government offsets the effect on the price level by running passive policies. The Bundesbank's prime objective of price stability is therefore endorsed by fiscal policy. The results have implications for the regulation of fiscal policies in the EMU.

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation policies in Greece

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the effects of contractionary fiscal policy shocks on major Greek macroeconomic variables within a structural vector autoregression framework while accounting for debt dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe sign restriction approach is applied to identify a linear combination of government spending and government revenue shock simultaneously while accounting for debt dynamics. Additionally, output and unemployment responses to fiscal shocks under different scenarios concerning the amalgamation of austerity measures are considered.FindingsThe results indicate that a contractionary consumption policy shock, namely, a 1 per cent decrease in government consumption and a 1 per cent increase in indirect taxes, is preferred, as it produces a minor decrease in output and substantially decreases public debt, while a contractionary wage policy shock is suitable only when the government aims to sharply reduce public debt, as the consequences for the economy are harsh. A contractionary investment policy shock is not recommended, as it triggers a rise in unemployment and a fall in output, while the effect on the public debt is minor.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should focus their efforts on reducing unproductive government consumption on the expenditure side. Concerning revenues, the reinforcement of tax administration is recommended to ensure that indirect taxes will be collected.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the existing literature by providing a disaggregated analysis of the effects of fiscal policy actions in Greece by implementing several fiscal policy scenarios and accounting for the level of public debt. All scenarios are in the vein of the economic adjustment programs guidelines.

Monetary versus fiscal policy in India: an SVAR analysis

ABSTRACTConventionally, the policymakers relied on three policy alternatives to manage business cycles – debt-financed government spending, debt-financed tax rebate and interest rate. While the first two are fiscal policy instruments, the latter is a monetary policy instrument. This paper aims to capture interactions among Indian monetary and fiscal policy actions, and the impact of such policy actions on select macroeconomic variables for the period 1990Q1–2011Q4. The policy actions are identified using the sign restrictions approach combined with magnitude restrictions in a Structural Vector Autoregression framework, and interpreted using impulse responses and variance decomposition. The results show that Indian monetary policy responds to tax rebate shocks and spending shocks differently. In the case of a tax rebate shock, Indian monetary policy responds by reducing interest rates thereby accommodating fiscal expansion. On the opposite, monetary policy seems not to accommodate expenditure shocks. Interestingly, the monetary policy shock is accompanied by a fiscal expansion that threatens the credibility of the central bank actions, thus indicating fiscal policy dominance. A comparison of the efficacy of the policies suggests that the interest rate is more effective in stimulating output. Out of the two fiscal policy instruments analysed, the tax rebate seems to be the better option for stimulating output considering the output-debt trade-off.