First-year Survival Research Articles

Dynamics of a goshawk population across half a century is driven by the variation of first-year survival.

Population dynamics are driven by stochastic and density-dependent processes acting on demographic rates. Individuals differ demographically, and to capture these differences, models of population dynamics are usually structured by age and stage, rarely by sex. An effect of sex on population dynamics is expected if the dynamics of males and females differ, requiring an unequal sex ratio at birth and/or sex-specific survival probabilities. Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) show large sexual size dimorphism and differential survival, but it is unknown whether males and females contribute differently to population dynamics. We studied a goshawk population in northern Germany over 47 years using brood monitoring data, collected feathers and nestling ringing data. We jointly analyzed the data using a two-sex integrated population model and performed retrospective and prospective population analyses to understand whether the demographic drivers of population change differ between the sexes. The population showed large fluctuations, during which the number of breeding pairs doubled, but the long-term trend of the population was slightly negative. Female survival exceeded male survival during the first year of life. Females started to reproduce at a younger age than males, productivity increased with female age, the sex ratio of nestlings was male biased and there was moderate male immigration. Despite these differences, temporal variation in sex ratio did not contribute to population dynamics and the contribution of temporal variation in survival was similar for both sexes. Variation in first-year survival was the strongest driver in this population, regulated by a weak density-dependent feedback acting through female first-year survival. Overall, the contributions of the two sexes to population dynamics were similar in this monogamous species with strong sexual size dimorphism.

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns.

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.

The prognostic effect of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and De Ritis ratio in glioblastoma multiforme patients.

Individuals with ahigher De Ritis ratio (aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) have an inferior survival in varied malignancies. To our knowledge, the prognostic potential of the De Ritis ratio and NLR to predict the survival in nonmetastatic glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patients remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to explore the prognostic power of the De Ritis ratio and NLR in patients with nonmetastatic glioblastoma multiforme. Data of 262 patients with glioblastoma multiforme have been retrospectively analyzed. Their age, gender, tumor characteristics, AST/ALT ratio, NLR and hemogram values, including age at diagnosis and date of diagnosis were recorded. The median survival time of the study group was 21 months (95% CI: 19‒23 months). The first-year and second-year survival rates were 73.0% and 40.5%, respectively. The univariate analysis revealed that the correlation of survival with age, gender, left/right location of tumor, mean platelet volume and De Ritis ratio did not reach the level of significance. The univariate analysis of the prognostic potential of NLR indicated that a1-unit increase in NLR value translates to a1.05 times higher risk of death (95% CI: 1.01‒1.09). The results of this study lead to the observation that NLR value can serve as an effective prognostic marker in predicting the outcomes of patients with glioblastoma multiforme. It can be positioned as an easily accessible and cost-effective biomarker for establishing appropriate therapeutic strategies (Tab. 2, Fig. 1, Ref. 20).

#3036 The influence of first renal graft on second graft rejection and survival: the importance of revisiting histocompatibility and clinical outcomes

Abstract Background and Aims Kidney retransplantation confers a robust survival benefit over dialysis and recent data has shown similar outcomes to first kidney transplant. The number of HLA mismatches is an important predictor of graft loss and sensitization and the presence of donor specific antibodies (DSA) -pre and -post transplant is a major risk factor for rejection and worst outcomes. However, the importance of HLA matching of first graft and the relevance of first donor DSAs on second graft outcomes is less known. Our aim was to identify risk factors to second graft acute rejection and graft loss, related to second and first graft features. Method We performed a retrospective, longitudinal study including all patients submitted to a 2nd kidney transplant between January 2008 and December 2021, excluding patients with more than 2 grafts or multi-organ transplant. Clinical and histocompatibility data from the first and second donor and recipient were collected. HLA antibodies were detected by solid phase assays and considered if MFI >2500. For subsequent kidney transplants, repeated mismatches are not allowed and unacceptable antigens are those for which the patient has pre-formed -A, -B and -DR antibodies, with MFI>1000. Biopsy proven acute rejection was defined according to Banff 2017 criteria. Follow-up was 31st December 2023 for functioning grafts or time to graft failure, with a mean time of 92 ± 53 months. Results We included 114 patients, 73 (64%) males, mostly Caucasians (96%), with a mean age of 43.9 ± 13 years at 2nd transplant. First kidney transplant was performed before 2010 for 99 patients (87%), with a median first graft survival of 82.5 [12.5-144] months and 19 patients (16.7%) presented primary disfunction due to surgical/vascular complications. After graft loss, 43 patients (37.7%) had their graft removed. For second transplant, 11 (9.6%) patients had a living donor. Induction therapy with thymoglobulin occurred in 94 patients (83%) and maintenance therapy with mycophenolic acid, calcineurin inhibitors and steroids was prescribed in 83 patients (73%). During follow-up, 20 patients (17.5%) presented biopsy proven acute rejection, 13 (65%) T cell mediated and 7 (35%) antibody-mediated, the majority during the first-year post-transplant (N = 17, 85%). The risk factors for second graft rejection are summarized in Table 1. Patients with a first graft nephrectomy had a higher risk of acute rejection (OR 3.9, 95% CI [1.4-10.9], p < 0.006) and were more susceptible to the development of second donor post-transplant DSA (58% vs 35%, p = 0.02). Death censored second allograft loss occurred in 24 patients (21%) at follow up and acute rejection was an important risk factors (OR 4.3, 95% CI [1.5-12.1], p = 0.004). First-year graft survival was 93% and a survival at follow up was 79%. On survival analysis the presence of second graft DSA was a major risk factor for graft loss, especially class 2 -DQ and -DR. First transplant total mismatch load, especially on class 1 contributed to worst graft survival. Conclusion Worst outcomes in first kidney transplant were related with an increased risk of acute rejection in second graft and 1st graft nephrectomy increases the risk of the development of 2nd graft DSA and acute rejection. First transplant mismatch load decreased second graft survival.

Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty and penetrating keratoplasty in pseudophakic bullous keratopathy: comparison of visual outcomes, graft survival rates, and complications

Objective: To compare the outcomes of Descemet Membrane Endothelial Keratoplasty (DMEK) and Penetrating Keratoplasty (PK) in patients with pseudophakic bullous keratopathy (PBK). Methods: Records of 51 eyes of 51 PBK patients (32 male, 19 female) who underwent PK (Group1=38 eyes) and DMEK (Group 2=13 eyes) were reviewed retrospectively. The two groups were compared for Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), graft survival rates, and complications. Results: The mean age was 69.1 and 67.1 years in group 1 and group 2, respectively. First-year cumulative survival rates for group 1 and group 2 were 92.1% and 61.5%, respectively, and 89.1% and 51.3% in the second year (P=0.001 by log-rank test). At the last follow-up visit, 2.7% of Group 1 and 30.8% of Group 2 had a BCVA of 0.3 or better (P=0.004). Graft failure was observed in 12 eyes (31.6%) in group 1 and 8 eyes (61.5%) in group 2 (P=0.056). At the last examination, the rates of transparent grafts were 73.7% and 69.2% in group 1 and group 2, respectively (P=0.756). Postoperative glaucoma was observed in 4 eyes (30.8%) in the group 2 and 4 eyes (10.5%) in the group 1 (P=0.083). There was no significant difference between the two groups regarding other complications (P>0.05). Conclusions: DMEK surgery offers a better visual outcome than PK for the treatment of PBK. Careful follow-up of patients is required in terms of glaucoma and graft failure after DMEK. Although the graft survival rate was lower in the DMEK group, a similar rate of graft transparency was achieved at the final examination with repeated DMEK surgery.

Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

Reintroduction of the Extinct-in-the-Wild Spix’s Macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii) in the Caatinga Forest Domain of Brazil

We describe efforts to reintroduce the extinct-in-the-wild Spix’s Macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii) within its historical range in eastern Brazil. Twenty captive-reared Spix’s Macaws were released, along with 15 Blue-Winged Macaws (Primolius maracana), as heterospecific flocks in two events during the dry and rainy seasons of 2022. We monitored the release groups through daily observation and telemetry tracking from early June 2022 to early June 2023. We documented an overall first-year survival of 58.3% (CI: 37.8–78.7%), with 65% of Spix’s Macaws establishing a stable area of activity within 5 km of the release site, excluding any temporary long-distance forays. Eighty-five percent of released Spix’s Macaws exhibited flock cohesion, including interactions with and integration into wild Blue-Winged Macaw groups at the release site. Several released Spix’s Macaws formed pair-bonds with conspecifics and engaged in nest cavity exploration, breeding behavior, and territorial defense of nest sites, with three females also laying and incubating eggs. One nesting pair successfully hatched and reared chicks in an artificial nest cavity. These releases employed a novel reintroduction strategy using a surrogate species model, the sympatric Blue-Winged Macaw, to “mentor” and facilitate post-release adaptation by the target species and increase the total number of individuals in the release cohort. Lastly, participatory monitoring by local citizens is considered a way to engage and involve local communities in species and habitat conservation and potentially create new employment opportunities in the region.

Factors affecting fledglings survival in urban population of European blackbirds in Szczecin (NW Poland)

The first-year survival alters population growth rates and viability in birds, however this period remains the least-studied of the avian life stages. Here we present results of the 19 years of study of fledglings apparent survival of urban population of European blackbird Turdus merula in Szczecin (NW Poland). We checked for possible influence on survival of several factors, including parental traits, such as parental age, their previous breeding experience, natal brood size, presence of another brood in a given breeding season and the time gap between clutches of a particular pair. Moreover, we incorporate into our analysis fledging’s hierarchy in the brood, its fledging time in the breeding season, temperature and precipitation during the first months of life. We also investigated changes in the apparent survival over 19 years. We found that the individual’s hierarchy in the nest, and the day of fledging had the strongest influence on the apparent survival, with heavier birds fledged earlier in the season surviving better. Increase in parental age and previous breeding experience of the pair could result in enhanced survival. Surprisingly increased precipitation lowered fledglings’ survival. During the 19 years of the study fledglings’ apparent survival dropped about 10%.

Long-Term Outcomes of Open Versus Endovascular Treatment for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis With Reconstructed Time-to-Event Data.

The advent of endovascular techniques has revolutionized the care of patients with uncomplicated abdominal aortic aneurysms. This analysis compares the overall survival and the freedom from reintervention rate between open surgical repair (OSR) and endovascular repair (EVAR) in patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane databases were searched for studies including patients who underwent either OSR or EVAR for uncomplicated AAA. All randomized controlled trials and propensity-score-matched cohort studies reporting on the outcomes of interest were considered eligible for inclusion. The systematic search of the literature was performed by 2 independent investigators in accordance with the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement. We conducted 1-stage and 2-stage meta-analyses with Kaplan-Meier-derived time-to-event data and meta-analysis with a random-effects model. Thirteen studies met our eligibility criteria, incorporating 13 409 and 13 450 patients in the OSR and EVAR arms, respectively. Patients who underwent open repair had improved overall survival rates compared with those who underwent EVAR (hazard ratio [HR]=0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.88-0.98, p=0.004) during a mean follow-up of 53.8 (SD=29.8) months and this was validated by the 2-stage meta-analysis (HR=0.89, 95% CI=0.8-0.99, p=0.03, I2=62.25%). Splitting timepoint analysis suggested that EVAR offers better survival outcome compared with OSR in the first 11 months following elective intervention (HR=1.37, 95% CI=1.22-1.54, p<0.0001), while OSR offers a significant survival advantage after the 11-month timepoint and up to 180 months (HR=0.84, 95% CI=0.8-0.89, p<0.0001). Similarly, freedom from reintervention was found to be significantly better in EVAR patients (HR=1.28, 95% CI=1.14-1.44, p<0.0001) within the first 30 days. After the first month postrepair, however, OSR demonstrated higher freedom-from-reintervention rates compared with EVAR that remained significant for up to 168 months during follow-up (HR=0.73, 95% CI=0.66-0.79, p<0.0001). Despite the first-year survival advantage of EVAR in patients undergoing elective AAA repair, OSR was associated with a late survival benefit and decreased risk for reintervention in long-term follow-up. Open surgical repair for uncomplicated abdominal aortic aneurysm offers better long-term outcomes in terms of survival and freedom from reintervention rate compared to the endovascular approach but in the first year it carries a higher risk of mortality. The novelty of our study lies that instead of comparing study-level effect estimates, we analyzed reconstructed individual patient-level data. This offered us the opportunity to perform our analyses with mathematically robust and flexible survival models, which was proved to be crucial since there was evidence of different hazard over time. Our findings underline the need for additional investigation to clarify the significance of open surgical repair when compared to the latest endovascular devices and techniques within the evolving era of minimally invasive procedures.

Does Femoral Arterial Calcification Have an Effect on Mortality in Patients Who Underwent Hemiarthroplasty Due to Hip Fracture?

We aimed to investigate the effect of femoral arterial calcification on mortality in patients who underwent hemiarthroplasty due to hip fracture. In our study, 481 patients who were operated for hip fracture between 01.01.2015 and 01.01.2021 were evaluated retrospectively. Femoral arterial calcification on the fractured side was evaluated in the preoperative pelvic anteroposterior (AP) X-ray, and the patients were divided into two subgroups according to the presence or absence of femoral arterial calcification. The overall survival and first-month and first-year survival of the patients were evaluated. Patients' age, gender, side, fracture type, treatment method, time between fracture and operation date, presence of femoral arterial calcification and type of anesthesia (regional, general) were recorded. Of the 481 patients included in the study, 299 were female and 182 were male, and the mean age was calculated as 80.5. Of the patients, 187 were diagnosed with femoral neck fractures and the remaining 294 with pertrochanteric fractures. It was observed that the mortality rate in the first month after surgery was 58 (12%) for both groups, and the mortality rate in the first year was 173 (35.9%) for both groups. The overall postoperative mortality was calculated as 302 (62.7%) for both groups. Femoral arterial calcification was detected in 191 of 481 patients, and femoral arterial calcification was not observed in the remaining 290 patients. Similarly, when both groups were compared in terms of mortality in the first month after surgery, mortality in the first year and overall mortality rates, no significant difference was found between the groups (p>0.05). In our study we showed that femoral arterial calcification has no effect on mortality in acute hip fractures treated by hemiarthroplasty in people over 65 years of age.

Estimating the Survival Rate in Glioblastoma Multiforme Patients who Received a Peptide Vaccine: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) has a poor prognosis, with current treatments providing no advantage in terms of survival. Certain new immunotherapy methods, such as peptide vaccines, have been used in clinical trials. In this meta-analysis, the effectiveness of peptide vaccinations on the survival rate of GBM patients was studied. A comprehensive search was carried out using three electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, and ISI. The purpose of this research was to assess Overall Survival (OS). The pooled overall one-year and two-year survival rates in GBM with peptide vaccination were calculated using the general inverse variance technique as random effects hazard ratios (HRs). In the study, subgroups of countries were compared with each other. Japan had the highest one-year survival rate, and the US had the highest two-year survival rate. With 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs), the one-year OS rate in GBM patients treated with peptide vaccination increased significantly, but the two-year survival rate did not increase. As a result, while additional research is needed, it cannot be concluded that it is an effective therapy for GBM. Our study found that while peptide vaccination treatment did not increase second-year survival, it improved first-year survival. More research needs to be done to find effective vaccinebased treatments for GBM that can help patients survive longer.

Lokal ileri mide kanserlerinde en-blok multiorgan rezeksiyonu yapılan hastaların erken ve geç dönem sonuçları ve bu sonuçlara etki eden faktörler

Background and Aims: The aim of this study is to examine the early and late results of patients with adjacent organ invasion (cT4b) who were operated for locally advanced gastric cancer in a high-volume center and to investigate the factors affecting survival. Material and Methods: Patients who underwent gastrectomy and en-bloc adjacent organ resection due to locally advanced gastric cancer between 2015 and 2019 were included in the study. Results: Radical gastrectomy and en-bloc additional organ resection were performed in 54 patients out of 435 patients who were operated for gastric cancer due to clinical T4b tumors. The mean age of all patients was 61.87 ± 12.67years. The median survival was found to be 16.5 (1 - 72) months. First-year survival was achieved in 37 (68.5%) patients, three-year survival in 11 (20.3%) and five-year survival in only 4 (7.4%) patients. Considering the factors affecting long-term survival, it was seen that postoperative complications affected survival significantly (p = 0.04). We found that performing R1 resection (p = 0.001), large tumor diameter (p = 0.02), presence of lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.024) and presence of perineural invasion (p = 0.024) adversely affected long-term survival. Conclusion: Adequate lymph node dissection and en bloc R0 resection with adjacent organ are important for long-term survival in patients with clinical T4b gastric cancer. Surgery should be performed regardless of the T-stage of the tumor. In this respect, surgery performed with adequate R0 resection can be considered as an independent prognostic factor affecting survival. Other factors affecting long-term survival are lymph node metastasis, tumor size, post-operative complications, and vascular and perineural invasion.

Apparent annual survival of female eastern small-footed bats (Myotis leibii) roosting in Arkansas bridges

Abstract The Eastern Small-footed Bat (Myotis leibii) inhabits mountainous areas of the eastern United States and generally roosts in cliff faces and talus slopes. However, the difficulty of accessing these sites has limited research on this species. We studied survival rates of eastern small-footed bats by capturing bats roosting in crevices between sections of concrete guardrails on bridges in the Ozark mountains of northern Arkansas from 2014 to 2021. We accumulated 1,413 bat captures (1,050F; 363M) of 283 individual females and 198 individual males sampled over 8 years and determined apparent annual survival of female bats using Cormack–Jolly–Seber survival models. Only 1 of 30 bats tested positive for the presence of Pseduogymnoascus destructans, a fungus causing white-nose syndrome (WNS) which is responsible for significant declines in populations of some North American bat species, when all maternity colonies were sampled in the spring of 2019. Overall apparent annual survival of all females was 0.643, with first-year juvenile survival of 0.472 and adult (ages 1–6) survival of 0.744, approximately 58% greater than first-year survival. Apparent annual survival did not differ greatly among the sites or among years. We found no significant decline or increase in overall number of bats among all sites during the 8 years of study. Stability in both the number of bats encountered and their survival rates suggests that the impact of WNS on these colonies has been marginal.

Combined Endovascular Treatment of Complex Aortic Pathologies.

Multisegmented aortic pathologies present challenging issues independent of the treatment chosen. Whether open or endovascular, staged, or simultaneous, every treatment modality has its own pros and cons. We revealed our patients retrospectively with early and midterm results who had simultaneous endovascular thoracic and abdominal aortic repair for thoracic aortic pathologies and infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (iAAA) as a single-center experience. Between January 2016 and January 2021, 16 patients were diagnosed with thoracic aortic pathology and iAAA was simultaneously repaired in an endovascular manner. All patients were operated on with the same cardiovascular surgeon team. The average age of the patients were 76.9 ± 6.2 (64-86) years. There was no early mortality. The technical success was 100%. In total, 18 thoracic endografts were deployed in 16 patients for thoracic aortic pathologies. Follow-up period was 21.85 ± 8.96 months, and in the follow-up period, two patients had a secondary intervention. One cardiac and one coronavirus disease 2019 mortality was detected in the follow-up period. There was no aneurysm-related mortality. The postoperative first-year survival was 84.6 ± 10.0. Simultaneous endovascular solution for complex multisegmented aortic pathologies provides a rapid, less-invasive approach with successful early and midterm morbidity, mortality with short intensive care unit period, and length of hospital stay. A combination of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair and thoracic endovascular aortic repair where anatomic suitability exists is a strong alternative over staged and hybrid therapies. Contrast-induced nephropathy, postimplantation syndrome, and spinal cord ischemia should be carefully monitored with this strategy.

Trait-dependent associations between early- and late-life reproduction in a wild mammal.

Early- versus late-life trade-offs are a central prediction of life-history theory that are expected to shape the evolution of ageing. While ageing is widely observed in wild vertebrates, evidence that early-late trade-offs influence ageing rates remains limited. Vertebrate reproduction is a complex, multi-stage process, yet few studies have examined how different aspects of early-life reproductive allocation shape late-life performance and ageing. Here, we use longitudinal data from a 36-year study of wild Soay sheep to show that early-life reproduction predicts late-life reproductive performance in a trait-dependent manner. Females that started breeding earlier showed more rapid declines in annual breeding probability with age, consistent with a trade-off. However, age-related declines in offspring first-year survival and birth weight were not associated with early-life reproduction. Selective disappearance was evident in all three late-life reproductive measures, with longer-lived females having higher average performance. Our results provide mixed support for early-late reproductive trade-offs and show that the way early-life reproduction shapes late-life performance and ageing can differ among reproductive traits.

Characteristics, Risk Factors, and Outcome of New-onset Systolic Heart Failure After Liver Transplantation: A Single-center Cohort.

This study included 528 adult patients with preoperative LV ejection fraction ≥ 55% who underwent LT between 2016 and 2020. The primary outcome was new-onset systolic HF, defined by the presence of clinical signs, symptoms, and echocardiographic evidence of reduced LVejection fraction <50% and RV dysfunction within the first year after LT. Thirty-one patients (6%) developed systolic HF within a median of 9 d (1-364). Of those, 23% of patients had ischemic HF, whereas 77% had nonischemic HF. Nonischemic HF was caused by stress (11), sepsis (8), or other factors (5). Nonischemic HF was secondary to isolated LV failure in 58% of patients or RV ± LV failure in 42% of patients. Recursive partitioning identified subgroups with varying risks and uncovered interaction between variables. HF risk increased from 4.2% to 13% when epinephrine and/or norepinephrine drips were used intraoperatively (P < 0.01). When no epinephrine and/or norepinephrine were used, HF risk increased from 3.1% to 38.5% if baseline hemoglobin was <7.2 g/dL (P < 0.01). When baseline hemoglobin was ≥7.2 g/dL, HF risk increased from 0% to 5.2% when ≥3500 mL crystalloid was used intraoperatively (P < 0.01). Posttransplant first-year survival and reversibility of HF depended on the etiology (stress, sepsis, ischemia, etc) and cardiac chamber involvement (isolated LV or RV ± LV). RV dysfunction was associated with inferior recovery of cardiac function and poorer survival than nonischemic isolated LV dysfunction (50% versus 70%, respectively). Posttransplant new-onset HF is mostly nonischemic in nature and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

Effect of kelp gull harassment on southern right whale calf survival: a long-term capture-recapture analysis.

Kelp gulls (Larus dominicanus) commonly feed on the skin and blubber of surfacing southern right whales (SRW, Eubalaena australis) in the near shore waters of Península Valdés (PV), Argentina. Mothers and especially calves respond to gull attacks by changing their swimming speeds, resting postures and overall behaviour. Gull-inflicted wounds per calf have increased markedly since the mid-1990s. Unusually high mortality of young calves occurred locally after 2003, and increasing evidence points to gull harassment as a factor contributing to the excess deaths. After leaving PV, calves undertake a long migration with their mothers to summer feeding areas; their health during this strenuous exertion is likely to affect their probabilities of first-year survival. To explore the effects of gull-inflicted wounds on calf survival, we analysed 44 capture-recapture observations between 1974 and 2017, for 597 whales photo-identified in their years of birth between 1974 and 2011. We found a marked decrease in first-year survival associated with an increase in wound severity over time. Our analysis supports recent studies indicating that gull harassment at PV may impact SRW population dynamics.

Early-life sibling conflict in Canada jays has lifetime fitness consequences.

While delaying natal dispersal can provide short-term benefits for juveniles, lifetime fitness consequences are rarely assessed. Furthermore, competition for limited positions on a natal territory could impose an indirect fitness cost on the winner if the outcome has negative effects on its siblings. We use radio-tracking and 58 years of nesting data in Ontario, Canada to examine the lifetime fitness consequences of sibling expulsion in the Canada jay (Perisoreus canadensis). Six weeks after fledging, intra-brood dominance struggles result in one 'dominant juvenile' (DJ) remaining on the natal territory after expelling its subordinate siblings, the 'ejectees' (EJs). Despite an older age-at-first-reproduction, DJs produced more recruits over their lifetime and had higher first-year survival than EJs, leading to substantially higher direct fitness. Even though DJs incurred an indirect fitness cost by expelling their siblings and there was no evidence that their presence on the natal territory increased their parents' reproductive output the following year, they still had substantially higher inclusive fitness than EJs. Our results demonstrate how early-life sibling conflict can have lifetime consequences and that such fitness differences in Canada jays are driven by the enhanced first-year survival of DJs pursuant to the early-summer expulsion of their sibling competitors.

Why Healthy Pine Seedlings Die after They Leave the Nursery

Artificial regeneration is successful when high-performing seedlings are transported with care to the planting site, stored for a short period in an environment without desiccation or fungal growth, and planted in a deep hole, so roots are in contact with moist soil. One of the requirements for success is the ability to avoid common planting mistakes. Due, in part, to the use of container stock plus an increase in rainfall, the average first-year survival of pine seedlings (89%) in the southern United States is about 15% greater now than 45 years ago. However, when survival is less than 50% six months after planting, some landowners seek reimbursement for their loss. Some assume poor seedling quality was the cause without realizing that anaerobic soils or sudden freeze events, shallow planting holes, pruning roots, a lack of rain or underground insects can kill pines. With a focus on pines planted in the southern United States, we list non-nursery factors that have killed seedlings in North America, Africa and Europe.

Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury.

A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergone limited evaluation of how injury level and time since fire interact to influence model accuracy and predictor variable importance. Less severe injuries potentially serve as an indicator for vulnerability to additional stressors such as bark beetle attack or moisture stress. We used a collection of 164,293 individual tree records to examine post-fire tree mortality in eight western USA conifers: Abies concolor, Abies grandis, Calocedrus decurrens, Larix occidentalis, Pinus contorta, Pinus lambertiana, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii. We evaluated the importance of fire injury predictors on discriminating between surviving trees versus immediate and delayed post-fire mortality. We fit balanced random forest models for each species using cumulative tree mortality from 1 to 5-years post-fire. We compared these results to multi-class random forest models using first-year mortality, 2-5-year mortality, and survival 5-years post-fire as a response variable. Crown volume scorched, diameter at breast height, and relative bark char height, were used as predictor variables. The cumulative mortality models all predicted trees that died within 1-year of fire with high accuracy but failed to predict 2-5-year mortality. The multi-class models were an improvement but had lower accuracy for predicting 2-5-year mortality. Multi-class model accuracies ranged from 85% to 95% across all species for predicting 1-year post-fire mortality, 42%-71% for predicting 2-5-year mortality, and 64%-85% for predicting trees that lived past 5-years. Our study highlights the differences in tree species tolerance to fire injury and suggests that including second-order predictors such as beetle attack or climatic water stress before and after fire will be critical to improve accuracy and better understand the mechanisms and patterns of fire-caused tree death. Random forest models have potential for management applications such as post-fire harvesting and simulating future stand dynamics.