First Time In Several Years Research Articles

1992 Fall Meeting is largest ever

The 1992 AGU Fall Meeting, which was held in San Francisco from December 7 to 11, continued the pattern of Fall Meeting growth and was the largest AGU meeting held to date. For the first time in several years, the meeting was held under one roof in the Civic Auditorium and Brooks Hall. Approximately 4571 papers (oral and poster) were presented and more than 6200 geophysicists registered for the meeting—an increase of 11% in paper presentations and 12% in registrations.Holding the meeting under one roof has been an objective for some time. This year, through judicious use of space and a more effective organization of poster sessions, it was achieved.

The importance of plant defence abilities to the structure of subtidal seaweed communities: The kelp Laminaria longicruris de la Pylaie survives grazing by the snail Lacuna vincta (Montagu) at high population densities

Following mass mortalities of sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Müller), in the rocky subtidal of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, dense seaweed beds dominated by the canopy-forming kelp Laminaria longicruris de la Pylaie developed for the first time in several years. The numerically abundant grazers in the seaweed beds when sea urchins were rare were the mesogastropod Lacuna vincta (Montagu), the limpet Notoacmaea testudinalis (Müller), and the chiton Tonicella rubra (Linné). The limpet and chiton are unable to graze the macroscopic sporophytes of Laminaria, and a manipulation experiment showed that they have no significant effect on the recruitment of this kelp. In contrast, Lacuna grazes the macroscopic sporophyte and several of its population characteristics suggested that it might be a potentially important grazer of Laminaria. Snails can occur in high densities and several invasions of an area may occur during a single season; they manifest strong preference for Laminaria in the subtidal region; post-metamorphic individuals have considerable ability for dispersal; and predation by their principal predator, the labrid fish Tautogolabrus adspersus (Walbaum) is limited in time and space. Despite this potential, the estimated direct consumption of kelp laminae by snails was negligible, amounting to only ≈ 0.05 % of the total blade biomass (fresh wt) that was available during their season. However, the snails′ overall impact on the Laminaria canopy was significant. Because grazing was concentrated on the frilled margins of laminae, and the holdfast, stipe and intercalary meristem were largely avoided, grazing promoted the tearing away of the margins of blades, resulting in a significant reduction in canopy area without increasing kelp mortality. Since there was no grazer-induced mortality of Laminaria, the canopy was closed following the growth burst of the kelps early in the spring, and there was little opportunity for understorey species to benefit from the temporarily high light levels. If the distribution of grazing by the snails had been more uniform and caused significant mortality of Laminaria, major changes in the structure of the seaweed assemblage would have occurred. We suggest that the pattern of Lacuna grazing on Laminaria is governed by the distribution of anti-herbivore chemicals in the plants, and variations in the toughness and nutritional quality of different regions of the plant. Avoidance of the intercalary meristem correlates with high levels of polyphenols in this area. Polyphenol concentration is uniformly low throughout the rest of the plant. The distribution of snail grazing on the stipe and holdfast, and central and lateral portions of the lamina correlates with the toughness and nutritional quality of these parts. The nature of the anti-herbivore defences of Laminaria, which are effective against grazing by Lacuna but not by the urchins, indicates a trade-off between high specific growth rates and reproductive output (and thus superior competitive ability) versus development of defences. This strategy is consistent with cost-effective arguments relating resource allocation and fitness.

A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure

FEW macroeconomic variables are as crucial to so many current controversies, and yet as hard to measure in empirical work, as the expected inflation rate. Each of the proxies that are often used for the expected inflation rate has serious drawbacks. Public opinion survey data are not based on observed economic behavior. Lagged values of the actual inflation rate, or other relevant macroeconomic variables, cannot hope to capture all the information that enters into the formation of expectations-for example, the latest government announcements of money growth. Future values of the actual inflation rate differ from the expected inflation rate by large expectational errors, even though they have mean zero if expectations are rational. One proxy sometimes used for the expected inflation rate is the nominal interest rate (minus a constant) under the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant. This proxy has the advantages that it is based on observed economic behavior and that it is capable of capturing the latest information available in financial markets. The disadvantage lies in the questionableness of the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is literally constant. Much has been written on both sides of this issue.1 Most economists probably would not agree with the claim that the real rate of interest is literally constant in the short run.2 But a majority perhaps would agree that, in the absence of new disturbances (such as unexpected monetary expansions), the expected inflation rate will become increasingly incorporated into the nominal interest rate with the passage of time. Since long-term interest rates are known to reflect expected future short-term interest rates, an important implication is that long-term interest rates reflect the expected inflation rate more fully than do short-term interest rates. This principle is recognized in financial markets. For example, when President Carter announced a more restrictive monetary policy in late 1978, in an effort to combat inflation and the depreciation of the dollar, the long-term interest rate fell below the short-term interest rate for the first time in several years. The Wall Street Journal characterized the reaction in bond markets as follows:

Sketches for Ferdinand Hodler'sCommunion with Infinity

When Ferdinand Hodler first exhibited his Communion with Infinity (Fig. 1) in 1893, his depiction of a nude young woman straining toward the heavens appeared to be, with its positive imagery and optimistic theme, a complete departure from his recent and well-known paintings. Prior to that time, Hodler had concerned himself primarily with themes of deprivation and discouragement; in The Disappointed Souls (Fig. 2) of 1891–92, he had conveyed the hopeless, meaningless waiting for death that he observed in the poverty-stricken old men with whom he lived.1 And in the 1890 Night (Fig. 3), Hodler had revealed this horror of death in a much more personal way, by depicting himself as the central sleeping figure who is awakened, terrified and screaming into the dark, by the black-draped phantom of death. But in 1893, these lugubrious thoughts and pessimistic premonitions seemed to have vanished from his mind, and from his painting. In Communion with Infinity, Hodler's public saw for the first time in several years...

Fourth quarter led 1978 earnings surge

It took a long time, and the reward may not last too long. But for the moment, chemicals are a very good business. Confounding all predictions of a year ago, the U.S. chemical industry gathered steam in the first three quarters of 1978 and then let loose with a real winner in earnings in the final quarter of the year. The boom pace has continued in the first two months of 1979. The outlook for future months clouds considerably, however. The industry has shown serious signs of overheating in employment, workhours, productivity, and even in plant capacity use in some areas. For the first time in several years, product shortages are cropping up, with talk of inventory building. Spot-market prices are climbing for some important products, notably the basic aromatics. None of this hurts profits, though. For fourth-quarter 1978, after-tax earnings for the 40 largest basic U.S. chemical producers gained 33% overall on an unusually ...

Hoover and Canada Diplomatic Appointments

THE REPUDIATION OF HERBERT CLARK HOOVER by the American voters in •93• was truly a personal tragedy. This thirty-first president of the Unked States had fashioned a distinguished public career as director of European relief, United States food administrator, and influential secretary of commerce during the twenties, culminating in his smashing victory over Governor Alfred E. Smith of New York in the presidential e ection of •9•8. Within a few years of his inauguration, this most able of the Republican presidents ofthe decade the engineer who would bring to government the businessman's practical experience and knowledge, the humanitarian who would cap the economic era by eliminating poverty was being victimized by the Great Depression and a personal ideology that severely limited the government's response to the problems created by the economic breakdown. He became the target of abuse and derision the intensity of which was clearly revealed on the cam-paign trail of •93•. The great expectations of •9•8 had not materialized. The public forgot or dismissed from its mind as a matter of irrelevance this man's earlier accomplishments, and rejected the philosophy of government which Herbert Hoover supposedly personified in favour of a new deal for the American people. Unknown to many Americans is the Canadian version of the Hoover tragedy. Hoover's popularity and image in Canada followed a similar pattern from support and expectation i • 928 to rejection and disappointment i •93•. In •9•8, for the first time in several years, Canadians took an active and informed interest in an American election. That a majority of Englishspeaking Canadians preferred Hoover's election is a reasonably accurate generalization. Indeed, his campaign promises of tariff protection to the depressed American farmer made them apprehensive, but Governor Smith's reversal of the Democratic party's traditional opposition to the high tariff

Communist China: The New Protracted War

At a time when the military metaphor has captured the field of sloganeering in Communist China and the writings of Mao Tse-tung are glorified as never before, it is tempting to describe China as embarking on a new war. Mao first advanced his ideas on in the early years of the Sino-Japanese conflict. The phrase was his capsule description of a situation in which defeat was unlikely but victory was remote. Understanding of the protracted nature of the was essential, Mao argued, to avoid either capitulation or premature optimism and to refute the theories of subjugation and quick victory.' The political mood that began to emerge in China in 1964 is similar in many ways to that encouraged by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the with Japan. The enemies and objectives of the present war are different of course, but there is the same realistic confrontation of current obstacles coupled with assertions of total victory in the distant future. This mood contrasts with both the heady optimism of the Great Leap Forward in 1957-60 and the uncertain pragmatism of the brief retrenchment in 1961-62. It defines the CCP's ultimate goals unequivocally and yet it forecasts decades and even centuries of struggle for the attainment of these goals. The psychological stance of the thus appears to be a general reorientation of CCP attitudes that will persist for some time to come. This conclusion is supported by analysis of the major policies pursued by the CCP during 1964, but it has been obscured by other developments in China's domestic and international position during the past year. The paradoxical fact is that China has scored some of its most dramatic successes in many years at the same time that it has been preparing for a prolonged and bitter struggle. These successes demand mention even though they conceal more basic trends within Communist China. The National Day celebrations in Peking on October 1, 1964, were predictably optimistic and self-congratulatory, but for the first time in several years there seemed to be real cause for celebration. Even before the announcements of Khrushchev's dismissal and the Chinese nuclear explosion later in the month, the Chinese leaders could look back with satisfaction on their best year since the middle nineteen-fifties. Continued improvements in the national economy were certainly one source of satisfaction. Although statistics remain scarce, partial figures released from time to time indicate moderate but steady gains in both agricultural and industrial production. The food supply has risen above the critical point, although food imports are still necessary, and rationing is now less severe than in the hard times

Developments in Louisiana Gulf Coast in 1962

The Louisiana Gulf Coast consists of the 38 southern parishes and the 16 continental shelf areas off-shore. Oil and gas production is obtained from sediments ranging in age from Cretaceous to Pleistocene. The 2,236 development and exploratory wells drilled in 1962 are 2.3% more than were drilled in 1961. Of the 600 exploratory wells, 17.0% were successful. For the first time in several years the Southwest District was the most active in exploratory drilling. Of the 43 new-field discoveries (27 onshore, 16 offshore) the most important are: Money Island, Cameron Parish; Mud Point, Vermillion Parish; Block 112 field, Main Pass Area; Block 225 field, Block 229 field, West Cameron Area; and Block 41 field, West Delta Area. The most important of the 240 new pools and extensions include Couquille Bay field, Plaquemines Parish; Eloi Bay field, St. Bernard Parish; and Lake Barre field, Terrebonne Parish. Geophysical activity showed a slight increase for the first time in several years. Leasing continued to be very active but scattered. In general, 1962 compared favorably with 1961 and preceding years.

Developments in Upper Gulf Coast of Texas in 1957

Drilling and production declined during 1957. There was a marked decrease in the total number of wells drilled, but the percentage of successful completions was about the same as the previous year. Frio and Yegua formational trends had the largest number of wells drilled. Very little drilling was done on the Continental Shelf. Oil production declined for the first time in several years, although gas production continued to increase. Forty new oil and gas fields were discovered during 1957. There were slightly more gas fields found than oil. Most discoveries were in the Frio and Yegua formational trends. Anticlinal closures accounted for most of the discoveries. Exploration declined during the year. The largest drop in exploratory work occurred on the Continental Shelf. Exploration and drilling in 1958 will be less than during the past year.

Brooks Adams and American Expansion

TONG slighted as a somewhat eccentric brother of the more l famous Henry Adams, Brooks Adams has received less attention than he deserves. Brooks Adams not only influenced Henry Adams; he also made a signficant impression on such leading public figures as John Hay, Henry Cabot Lodge, and Theodore Roosevelt. Of particular consequence was Brooks's role in the development of United States foreign policy in Asia -and toward Russia in particular-from 1895 to 1908. Panic of 1893 brought Henry Adams into close and extended contact with his brother for the first time in several years. Henry, perplexed by the problems posed by the new industrialism, was quick to benefit from Brooks's researches and insight. By 1893 Brooks Adams had completed some ten years of exhaustive inquiry upon which he had formulated a broad theory of history. And as the two brothers waited out their fortunes that summer Brooks gave Henry the full argument of his thesis, which was shortly published as Law of Civilization and Decay.l In the course of this tutoring it is clear that Henry acquired from Brooks certain fundamental conceptions of history, explicit in Law, which subsequently bulked large in his own writing.2 By Henry's own admission it was Brooks who discovered or developed the law: The book, Henry wrote,

Albertine the Ambiguous: Notes on Proust's Transposition of Sexes

On the evening of 13 May 1921 André Gide spent an hour with Marcel Proust, apparently for the first time in several years. For the past four days Proust had sent a car and chauffeur to fetch Gide every evening. Finally on the night when the latter could come, the invalid who had not been up in some time, had dressed to go out. The meeting took place in the little salon at 44, rue Hamelin, with its hideous Barbedienne bronze on the mantel and the Jacques Blanche portrait of the foppish young Marcel on the next wall. To one the atmosphere seemed stifling, but the other, having just left a still warmer room, was shivering.

Plastic Highlights in 1947

DURING 1947 production of plastic materials did not increase as rapidly as had been expected. This was primarily due to difficulties in increasing production facilities. However, 1947 turned out to be a very active year, and the consumption of plastic materials undoubtedly has exceeded that of 1946. The production of one billion pounds of materials for plastics will not be reached but will be approached in spite of a definite decline in activity during the summer months. Among thermoplastic resins, raw material shortages were considerably relieved, and for the first time in several years molding materials were readily available. However, thermosetting materials are still in short supply, and this shortage apparently will continue. The use of plastics in industrial products and the extension of the use of plastic materials to other fields such as the textile and paper industry has continued, and there is a notable trend to use plastic materials where ...

North Continental Divide: Comparison of forecast and runoff of the Upper Missouri Basin at Fort Peck Reservoir, 1939

In 1938, on April 1, the snow‐pack in the Fort Peck headwaters area was 116 per cent of “normal”. However, in view of the dry conditions which had persisted through 1937, and in anticipation of a continued deficiency in precipitation, it was predicted that the runoff above Fort Peck during the four‐month period, April to July, 1938, would be only approximately 50 per cent of “normal”. This forecast was not subsequently revised. Actually, the precipitation which occurred was above “normal” (130 per cent of “normal”) for the first time in several years, and the resulting runoff was 89 per cent of “normal”.

(5) Upper Missouri River forecasts at Fort Peck, 1938 and 1939

On April 1, 1938, the snow‐pack in the Fort Peck Headwaters Area was 116 per cent of normal. However, in view of the dry conditions which had persisted through 1937, and in anticipation of a continued deficiency in precipitation, it was predicted that the runoff above Fort Peck during the four‐month period, April to July 1938, would be only approximately 50 per cent of normal. This forecast was not subsequently revised. Actually, the precipitation which occurred, was above normal (130 per cent of normal) for the first time in several years, and the resulting runoff was 89 per cent of normal.

Library of the American Medical Association.

Chicago, Sept. 25, 1895. To the Editor: —For the first time in several years, if not in its history, this library has been united and roughly sorted into periodicals, transactions, monographs and pamphlets. There are about two hundred and fifty incomplete sets of periodicals, mostly United States, with some English, French and a few German, Italian and Spanish. Some of these, mostly the older United States periodicals, have been bound in a cheap but durable style, but the greater majority are unbound. This number includes some not now received in exchange, but this deficiency is made up by new periodicals, so the number remains about the same. By the terms of the contract, the library does not receive all periodicals and books sent to theJournal. Some of these are kept for office copies and some become the property of the reviewers. The value of these sets is their incompleteness,