First-order Effects Research Articles

Corporate Debt and Taxes

We provide updates to and perspectives on the enduring topic of debt and taxes. The recent decade brought us new empirical strategies, accounting rules, and tax laws. We discuss how these and other developments change our understanding of leverage and taxes. Overall, tax incentives still do not seem to have a consistent, first-order effect on corporate capital structure. This presents a puzzle as governments increasingly limit interest deductibility, citing its contribution to overleverage and distress. We discuss critical empirical challenges such as measurement, highlight issues surrounding assumptions about tax rates and real-world financing decisions, and offer insights and direction for future research. We conclude that rather than asking if taxes are a first-order driver of corporate capital structure, a more productive goal is a greater understanding of when tax incentives yield material effects on corporate capital structure.

First- and second-order magneto-optical effects and intrinsically anomalous transport in the two-dimensional van der Waals layered magnets CrXY (X=S,Se,Te;Y=Cl,Br,I)

Recently, the two-dimensional magnetic semiconductor CrSBr has attracted considerable attention due to its excellent air-stable property and high magnetic critical temperature. Here, we systematically investigate the electronic structure, magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy, first-order magneto-optical effects (Kerr and Faraday effects), and second-order magneto-optical effects (Sch\"afer-Hubert and Voigt effects) as well as intrinsically anomalous transport properties (anomalous Hall, anomalous Nernst, and anomalous thermal Hall effects) of two-dimensional van der Waals layered magnets $\mathrm{Cr}\mathit{XY} (X=\mathrm{S},\mathrm{Se},\mathrm{Te};Y=\mathrm{Cl},\mathrm{Br},\mathrm{I})$ by using first-principles calculations. Our results show that monolayer and bilayer $\mathrm{Cr}\mathit{XY} (X=\mathrm{S},\mathrm{Se})$ are narrow-band-gap semiconductors, whereas monolayer and bilayer $\mathrm{CrTe}Y$ are multiband metals. The magnetic ground states of bilayer $\mathrm{Cr}\mathit{XY}$ and the easy magnetization axis of monolayer and bilayer $\mathrm{Cr}\mathit{XY}$ are confirmed by the magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy calculations. Utilizing magnetic group theory analysis, the first-order magneto-optical effects as well as anomalous Hall, anomalous Nernst, and anomalous thermal Hall effects are identified to exist in a ferromagnetic state with out-of-plane magnetization. The second-order magneto-optical effects are not restricted by the above symmetry requirements, and therefore they can arise in ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic states with in-plane magnetization. The calculated results are compared with the available theoretical and experimental data of other two-dimensional magnets and some conventional ferromagnets. The present work reveals that monolayer and bilayer $\mathrm{Cr}\mathit{XY}$ with superior magneto-optical responses and anomalous transport properties provide an excellent material platform for the promising applications of magneto-optical devices, spintronics, and spin caloritronics.

Characterization and correction of diffusion gradient-induced eddy currents in second-order motion-compensated echo-planar and spiral cardiac DTI.

Very high gradient amplitudes played out over extended time intervals as required for second-order motion-compensated cardiac DTI may violate the assumption of a linear time-invariant gradient system model. The aim of this work was to characterize diffusion gradient-related system nonlinearity and propose a correction approach for echo-planar and spiral spin-echo motion-compensated cardiac DTI. Diffusion gradient-induced eddy currents of 9 diffusion directions were characterized at b values of 150 s/mm2 and 450 s/mm2 for a 1.5Tesla system and used to correct phantom, ex vivo, and in vivo motion-compensated cardiac DTI data acquired with echo-planar and spiral trajectories. Predicted trajectories were calculated using gradient impulse response function and diffusion gradient strength- and direction-dependent zeroth- and first-order eddy current responses. A reconstruction method was implemented using the predicted -space trajectories to additionally include off-resonances and concomitant fields. Resulting images were compared to a reference reconstruction omitting diffusion gradient-induced eddy current correction. Diffusion gradient-induced eddy currents exhibited nonlinear effects when scaling up the gradient amplitude and could not be described by a 3D basis alone. This indicates that a gradient impulse response function does not suffice to describe diffusion gradient-induced eddy currents. Zeroth- and first-order diffusion gradient-induced eddy current effects of up to -1.7rad and -16 to +12 rad/m, respectively, were identified. Zeroth- and first-order diffusion gradient-induced eddy current correction yielded improved image quality upon image reconstruction. The proposed approach offers correction of diffusion gradient-induced zeroth- and first-order eddy currents, reducing image distortions to promote improvements of second-order motion-compensated spin-echo cardiac DTI.

Discrete Boltzmann modeling of high-speed compressible flows with various depths of non-equilibrium

The non-equilibrium high-speed compressible flows present wealthy applications in engineering and science. With the deepening of Thermodynamic Non-Equilibrium (TNE), higher-order non-conserved kinetic moments of the distribution function are needed to capture the main feature of the flow state and the evolution process. Based on the ellipsoidal statistical Bhatnagar–Gross–Krook model, Discrete Boltzmann Models (DBMs) that consider various orders of TNE effects are developed to study flows in various depths of TNE. In numerical tests, DBMs including the first up to the sixth order TNE effects are demonstrated. Specifically, at first, the model's capability to capture large flow structures with zeroth-order TNE effects in two types of one-dimensional Riemann problems is demonstrated. The ability to capture large flow structures with first-order TNE effects is also shown in the Couette flow. Then, a shock wave structure given by Direct simulation Monte Carlo is used to verify the model's capability to capture fine structures at the level of the mean free path of gas molecules. Furthermore, we focus on the TNE degree of two colliding fluids mainly decided by two parameters: the relaxation time τ and relative speeds Δu of two fluids. Consequently, three numerical tests for flows with various depths of TNE are constructed. Due to any definition of the TNE strength is dependent on the perspective of investigation, we propose to use a N-component vector STNE to describe the TNE system from N perspectives. As specific applications, we use a three-component vector STNE=(τ,Δu,Δ2*) to roughly characterize three cases for numerical tests in this work. Then, we check the system TNE behavior from the perspective of the xx component of the TNE quantity, viscous stress Δ2*. It is found that, for the first two cases, at least up to the second-order TNE effects, i.e., the second-order terms in Knudsen number in the CE expansion, should be included in the model construction, while for the third case, at least up to the third-order TNE effects should be included. Similar to Δ2*, three numerical tests for flows in various depths of Δ3,1* are constructed. It is found that from the perspective of Δ3,1,x*, for case 1 and case 3, at least up to the second-order TNE effects should be required, while for case 2, the first-order TNE effects are enough. These findings demonstrate that the inadequacy of focusing only on the few kinetic moments appearing in Navier–Stokes increases with the degree of discreteness and deviation from thermodynamic equilibrium. Finally, a two-dimensional free jet is simulated to indicate that, to obtain satisfying hydrodynamic quantities, the DBM should include at least up to the third-order TNE effects. This study is meaningful for the understanding of the TNE behavior of complex fluid systems and the choice of an appropriate fluid model to handle desired TNE effects.

Developmental I-Deals, Boundaryless Career Beliefs, and Career Capital Construction Behavior

Developmental idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) are learning-oriented employment arrangements tailored to employees’ preferences and needs. This study examined a new pathway by which developmental i-deals affect employees’ career capital construction behavior. Guided by boundaryless career theory, we proposed that developmental i-deals enhance employees’ boundaryless career beliefs, which facilitate their human, social, and innovation capital construction behavior. To extend boundaryless career theory and show that control beliefs are salient in establishing a boundaryless career, we examined three different roles that internal locus of control plays in the proposed process: (a) internals are more likely than externals to seek developmental i-deals, (b) internals are more likely than externals to experience the positive effects of developmental i-deals on boundaryless career beliefs, and (c) internal locus of control promotes perceived job alternatives, which further strengthen the first-order moderating effect of internal locus of control. Data collected from 209 college-graduate employees at three points over eight months supported the proposed moderated mediation effects. The findings advance the current i-deal research by showing how developmental i-deals facilitate an employee’s career capital construction behavior (via strengthened boundaryless career beliefs), especially for those with stronger control beliefs, such as internals.

Does Spirituality Influence Happiness and Academic Performance?

One of the key issues of the learning experience is students’ performance during the course, as this is pointed to as one of the main indicators for boosting competences’ development and skills’ improvement. This study explores the roles of spirituality, forgiveness, and gratitude on students’ academic performance, proposing a model of analysis revealing a first-order moderation effect of spirituality in the mediation effect of happiness, on the relation between gratitude and forgiveness with students’ academic performance. Two hundred twenty management students from various Indian universities voluntarily participated in the study. To avoid common method-bias issues, data concerning the study variables were obtained in two distinct moments. To test for the moderated-mediation model of analysis, we have followed the PROCESS analytical procedure. Results showed that forgiveness and gratitude were positively and significantly related to happiness and academic performance. It was also possible to see that spirituality moderates the relationship between forgiveness for self and student happiness. Finally, the moderated-mediating impact of spirituality and happiness on the relationship between gratitude and academic performance was also supported. The present study has taken the lead from positive psychology to assess the students’ character strengths related to their well-being and success. It proposes an innovative model of analysis, supported by theoretical reasoning, pointing to the existence of a moderated-mediation relation predicting students’ academic performance.

Accuracy of 3-dimensional printed bracket transfer tray using an in-office indirect bonding system

In this study, we aimed to evaluate and compare the bracket positioning accuracy of the indirect bonding (IDB) transfer tray fabricated in-clinic using the tray printing (TP) and marker-model printing methods (MP). The TP group was further divided into 2 groups (single-tray printing [STP] and multiple-tray printing [MTP]) depending on the presence of a tray split created using the 3-dimensional (3D) software. Five duplicated plaster models were used for each of the 3 experimental groups, and a total of 180 artificial teeth, except the second molar, were evaluated in the experiment. The dental model was scanned using a model scanner (E3; 3Shape Dental Systems, Copenhagen, Denmark). Virtual brackets were placed on facial axis points, and the IDB trays were designed and fabricated using a 3D printer (VIDA; EnvisionTEC, Mich). The accuracy of bracket positioning was evaluated by comparing the planned bracket positions and the actual bracket positions using 3D analysis on inspection software. The main effects and first-order interaction effects were analyzed together by analysis for the analysis of variance. The mean distance and height errors were significantly lower in the STP group than those in the MP and MTP groups (P<0.05). The mean distance error was 0.06 mm in the STP group and 0.09 mm in the MP and MTP groups. The mean height error was 0.10 mm in the STP group and 0.15 mm and 0.18 mm in MP and MTP groups, respectively. However, no significant differences were observed in the angular errors among the 3 groups. The in-office-fabricated IDB system with computer-aided design and 3D printer is clinically applicable after considering the linear and angular errors. We recommend IDB trays fabricated using the STP method owing to the lower frequency of bracket positioning errors and ease of fabrication.

Fluorescence ratio and photochemical reflectance index as a proxy for photosynthetic quantum efficiency of photosystem II along a phosphorus gradient

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is one of the most promising remote-sensing signals to assess spatio-temporal variation in photosynthesis. Yet, it has been shown that the positive linear relationship of SIF and photosynthesis, often reported from satellite and proximal remote sensing, is mainly driven by the amount of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (APAR). By normalizing SIF by APAR these structural first-order effects can accounted for and SIF is then reflecting physiological regulation of photosynthetic efficiency. However, because of the confounding contribution of non-photochemical energy dissipation, the relationship between SIF and photosynthetic efficiency is non-linear, and therefore additional measurements have to be included to constrain the predictions of photosynthetic efficiency and photosynthetic electron transport.We grew Zea mays at different phosphorus (P) levels to assess if P-induced reduction in quantum efficiency of PSII (ΦPSII), can be estimated by the fluorescence efficiency parameters, APAR normalized fluorescence (Fyield) and the ratio of the two emitted fluorescence peaks (F↑ratio), at leaf level. Results were compared to the photochemical reflectance index (PRI), a well-established index related to the activity of the xanthophyll cycle, a protection mechanism which activates under light-stress conditions. We demonstrate that the relationship between ΦPSII and Fyield is non-monotonic across a P limitation gradient, rendering the prediction of ΦPSII by Fyield alone unfeasible. We show, however, that the pigment corrected PRI (cPRI) and F↑ratio (cF↑ratio) share a strong linear relationship with ΦPSII, thereby enabling the estimation of ΦPSII. We demonstrate that a compensation for reabsorption effects improved the estimation of ΦPSII by Fratio at foliar level. This may allow improved predictions of photosynthetic light use efficiency parameters without the need of measuring green APAR.

Abstract B025: Antifragile therapy

Abstract We present a novel paradigm of evolutionary cancer therapy based on the “antifragility” of the drug dose-response function. Antifragility is the word originally coined to describe the opposite of fragility. Systems or organisms can be described as antifragile if they derive a benefit from systemic variability, volatility, randomness, or disorder. In this work, we quantify the evolutionary and ecological benefit (or harm) derived from increasing dose volatility in treatment scheduling. Nonlinear sigmoidal dose-response curves are ubiquitous in medicine and have both convex and concave regions. Despite the ubiquity of dose response assays in biological sciences, these curves are typically used to measure differential response in first-order effects (mean value of drug dose delivered), while second-order effects (variance of drug dose) are generally ignored. Analysis of the convexity of dose response curves provides a direct prediction of response to continuous treatment (“even” schedules with zero volatility) in comparison to high-dose/low-dose treatment (“uneven” schedules with high volatility). For example, if the dose response function is antifragile (concave) near a dose of ‘x’, continuous administration of x may have a less efficacious response compared to a regimen that switches equally between 120% of x and 80% of x, even though both regimens use the same total drug. Mathematical analysis of dose response curves in vitro for a H3122 ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cell line predicts that evolved-resistance cell lines can be more effectively treated using volatile treatment scheduling regimens, while treatment-naïve cell lines are most effectively treated by continuous treatment. However, selection pressure due to treatment selects for resistant phenotypes over time. We construct a mathematical model of gradual resistance, parameterized to data, and predict time-dependent antifragility in continuous (8 weeks), volatile (8 weeks) ALK inhibition in vivo. The key insight is that dose-response concavity (“anti-fragility”) increases in proportion to the amount of resistance in the tumor population. Antifragility provides a time-dependent metric which 1) predicts the emergence of resistance and 2) determines the optimal subsequent dosing strategy. Previous work indicates that resistance to ALK inhibitors occurs gradually, through the acquisition of multiple cooperating genetic and epigenetic adaptive changes. This observation led us to hypothesize that there is a critical point in the evolution of ALK-positive tumors where it is optimal to switch from continuous treatment to volatile dosing to optimally control the onset of gradual resistance. This hypothesis is also tested in vivo, comparing continuous and volatile treatment schedules of ALK inhibitors to a switching schedule of continuous-volatile (4 weeks each). We end by discussing the implications for adaptive therapy. Citation Format: Jeffrey West, Bina Desai, Maximilian Strobl, Luke Pierik, Richard Miles, Cole Armagost, Mark Robertson-Tessi, Andriy Marusyk, Alexander R. A. Anderson. Antifragile therapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on the Evolutionary Dynamics in Carcinogenesis and Response to Therapy; 2022 Mar 14-17. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(10 Suppl):Abstract nr B025.

How Reel Middle Easterners’ Portrayals Cultivate Stereotypical Beliefs and Policy Support

ABSTRACT There is limited empirical research examining cultivation theory’s proposition that first-order estimates influence second-order attitudes. In two studies, we examine how Middle Easterners are portrayed on entertainment television and how these portrayals cultivate stereotypical beliefs and policy support. A content analysis in Study 1 finds that nearly half of Middle Eastern characters on entertainment television are portrayed as supporting terrorism. A survey in Study 2 finds that watching television programs averaging two or more Middle Eastern terrorist characters per episode is associated with individuals’ estimations that a higher percentage of Middle Easterners are associated with terrorism in the real world. This first-order cultivation effect was found to be a mediating mechanism between entertainment media exposure and support for restrictive immigration and naturalization policies. We discuss the importance of examining entertainment television representations of racial/ethnic minorities and their implications for attitudes and policy support relevant to the depicted groups.

Array element coupling in radio interferometry I: a semi-analytic approach

ABSTRACTWe derive a general formalism for interferometric visibilities, which considers first-order antenna–antenna coupling and assumes steady-state, incident radiation. We simulate such coupling features for non-polarized skies on a compact, redundantly spaced array and present a phenomenological analysis of the coupling features. Contrary to previous studies, we find mutual coupling features manifest themselves at non-zero fringe rates. We compare power-spectrum results for both coupled and non-coupled (noiseless, simulated) data and find coupling effects to be highly dependent on local sidereal time (LST), baseline length, and baseline orientation. For all LSTs, lengths, and orientations, coupling features appear at delays which are outside the foreground ‘wedge’, which has been studied extensively and contains non-coupled astrophysical foreground features. Further, we find that first-order coupling effects threaten our ability to average data from baselines with identical length and orientation. Two filtering strategies are proposed which may mitigate such coupling systematics. The semi-analytic coupling model herein presented may be used to study mutual coupling systematics as a function of LST, baseline length, and baseline orientation. Such a model is not only helpful to the field of 21cm cosmology, but any study involving interferometric measurements, where coupling effects at the level of at least 1 part in 104 could corrupt the scientific result. Our model may be used to mitigate coupling systematics in existing radio interferometers and to design future arrays where the configuration of array elements inherently mitigates coupling effects at desired LSTs and angular resolutions.

The interrelated impacts of credit access, market access and forest proximity on livelihood strategies in Cambodia

Livelihood diversification strategies in developing countries are influenced by access to financial credit, to markets and to forests. Understanding their interrelated impacts has important implications for development policy, for market access, credit provision, and forest conservation. Using a survey of 2,417 households in 64 villages in four Provinces in Cambodia and satellite data on forest extent, we test hypotheses and quantify the relative contributions and first-order interactions effects of market and road access, forest access, and formal and informal financial credit access on household expenditures and livelihood incomes. We test hypotheses about their statistical interactions, their relative contributions to incomes, and how their effects differ within and outside the Mekong River floodplain. Market and road access are significant with gross income and expenditures, as well as portfolio shifts to off-farm business activities. Forest access contributes significantly to gross income and expenditures. Credit utilization is significant with gross income, expenditures, off-farm business, and livestock activities. Households below the poverty line use financial credit primarily for consumption and agricultural investments, but above the poverty line for business investment and purchasing assets. Market access and financial credit are more important for incomes in the Mekong floodplain area, while forest access is more important outside it. Using dominance analysis, we find that financial credit contributes more than market or forest access to gross income, expenditures, and livestock income. However, market access is more important than credit for off-farm, on-farm and crop incomes, and forest access contributes more to gross income than formal credit access. We also test for first-order interactions between these effects and find they are statistically significant, confirming a synergistic interaction between credit, market and forest access. Market access improves the impact of credit use, as credit use improves gross and off-farm incomes with improved access to large cities, and improves livestock incomes with improved road access. Forests and roads act synergistically to improve household incomes in areas with good city market access, as forest access contributes more to gross income, expenditures and off-farm incomes in areas with good primary road access, and to on-farm incomes in areas with good secondary road access. Our findings show that market, road, credit and forest effects are interconnected and interdependent, but support each other, and significant interaction effects between forest and market access suggest that policies for poverty reduction and forest conservation should be coordinated with the development of roads to improve potential forest returns.

Estimation of Regional Pulmonary Compliance in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Based on Personalized Lung Poromechanical Modeling.

Pulmonary function is tightly linked to the lung mechanical behavior, especially large deformation during breathing. Interstitial lung diseases, such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), have an impact on the pulmonary mechanics and consequently alter lung function. However, IPF remains poorly understood, poorly diagnosed, and poorly treated. Currently, the mechanical impact of such diseases is assessed by pressure-volume curves, giving only global information. We developed a poromechanical model of the lung that can be personalized to a patient based on routine clinical data. The personalization pipeline uses clinical data, mainly computed tomography (CT) images at two time steps and involves the formulation of an inverse problem to estimate regional compliances. The estimation problem can be formulated both in terms of "effective", i.e., without considering the mixture porosity, or "rescaled," i.e., where the first-order effect of the porosity has been taken into account, compliances. Regional compliances are estimated for one control subject and three IPF patients, allowing to quantify the IPF-induced tissue stiffening. This personalized model could be used in the clinic as an objective and quantitative tool for IPF diagnosis.

Perceived Overqualification and Innovative Behavior: High-Order Moderating Effects of Length of Service

Perceived overqualification has been a hot topic in the field of organizational behavior in recent years and has become very common with the spread of education. In addition, in the current era of open innovation, the demand for innovative behaviors by enterprises is increasing day by day. Therefore, this study intended to link the two to explore the relationship between them. Based on self-evaluation theory and face theory, taking enterprise employees as the research object, this paper discusses the impact of perceived overqualifications on employees’ innovative behavior and the internal mechanism and examines the first-order and high-order moderating effects of ability–face pressure and length of service in turn. The results showed that perceived overqualifications had a positive impact on employees’ innovation behavior, and felt trust had a mediating role in the relationship. Ability face pressure played a negative moderating role in the impact of felt trust on innovative behavior and played a negative moderating role in the impact of perceived overqualifications on innovative behavior. With the increase in the length of service, the negative moderating effect of ability face pressure on the relationship between perceived overqualifications and employees’ innovative behavior weakened. It is expected that these results will enable companies to understand the internal mechanisms of employee perceived overqualification, enlighten leaders to give more trust to employees, help companies to improve employees’ innovative behavior, and pay attention to the psychological factors of employees, which will help to create a sustainable work environment and promote sustainable business development.

Farmer perceptions of climate change and adaptation during the 2017–2020 Australian drought

ABSTRACT Despite being the most tangibly impacted by the first-order effects of a warming climate, much of Australia’s agricultural regions have remained relatively conservative in their views on climate change and the need for adaptation. This paper aims to understand how the experience of an extreme climate event like the 2017–2020 drought might shift opinions and values on these issues within agricultural communities. Through in-depth interviews with 20 graziers across Northwest NSW during the worst days of the drought, we found that various psychological lock-ins, historical memories of resilience, and local cultural values appeared to be undermining the perception of their vulnerability, while enhancing perceptions of their ability to endure. Such discursive constructions appear to explain why a jarring climatic event like the 2017–2020 drought was failing to produce a noticeable shift in their views.

A sequential modeling approach for predicting clinical outcomes with repeated measures

The increased availability of healthcare data has made predictive modeling popular in a clinical setting. If an expected patient-specific outcome can be estimated prior to a medical intervention the healthcare costs can be reduced for both patient and provider. The nature of data used to train such predictive models is frequently longitudinal, as interventions with convalescence times or chronic conditions contain outcome measures at intermediate follow-up points. Here we outline a predictive modeling approach that takes advantage of the longitudinal structure of the data by sequentially predicting the outcomes at intermediate time points and including them as predictors in models for later time points. This is done for continuous and threshold-dichotomized outcomes. The proposed method improves predictive accuracy as it takes advantage of the correlation in follow-up measures to distribute the estimation of coefficient effects over several models, making it advantageous for smaller datasets. This formulation also allows for effective screening of first-order interaction effects. The improved performance is illustrated using a simulation study and an applied example of predicting outcomes following surgery. The proposed approach is shown to be consistent for prediction, effective in modeling interactions and robust to presence of noise variables.

Phase transformation and plastic behavior of QP steel sheets: Transformation kinetics-informed modeling and forming limit prediction

A previous study on quenching and partitioning (QP) steel showed that the transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) effect strongly depends on the stress triaxiality and Lode angle parameters during the plastic deformation. However, only the impact of stress states on the linear hardening response (first-order effect) was investigated, assuming its yield and plastic flow evolution (second-order effect) follow isotropic behavior for both tension and compression. The high-order effects of phase transformation on plasticity are still elusive and difficult to incorporate owing to the inconsistent usage of the equivalent strain in kinetics law and constitutive modeling. In this study, the hardening law, considering martensitic transformation, was utilized in conjunction with a strength differential (SD) effect-induced asymmetric yield function based on the proposed work-conjugate framework. The contradiction where the previous model correlates the martensitic transformation law based on the von Mises strain and the mechanical responses based on the normalized plastic work-per-unit material (or the work-conjugate equivalent strain) was eliminated. This elimination imposed the phase transformation influence into size evolution of the yield surface for QP980 because the effective stress directly correlated with the martensitic transformation using the work-conjugate equivalent strain. One can use any yield function in conjunction with this work-conjugate framework to correlate the martensitic transformation and its impact on the mechanical behavior for both first- and second-order effects. Thus, the yield surface of QP980 steel was stably normalized through asymmetric function under different plastic strains and deformation modes. The SD effect of QP980 steel has proven to be anisotropic and the martensitic transformation has negligible impact on the shape evolution of its yield surface. The pressure-dependent phenomenon in the plastic flow behavior of the employed QP steel suggested that its volume change during the plastic deformation can be neglected. The correlation between the microstructure volume fraction, evolving yield surface, and the stress–strain response under nonlinear loadings (Bauschinger effect) was predicted accurately. The forming limit imperfection analysis served as a typical application, where the phase transformation was further correlated with the localized necking phenomenon. The framework to understand the impact of microstructure evolution in QP steel sheets on its final forming limits was provided, suggesting that an optimized strain path design will greatly enhance the accumulated plastic limit before the localized necking.

Assessing the impacts of social norms on low-carbon mobility options

Policymakers and scientists are paying increasing attention to how social norms can promote pro-environmental behaviour and sustainable energy use. We contribute to this field by experimenting with and assessing the impacts of social norms on low-carbon mobility options. Taking Sweden as a case study, we develop two complementary randomised controlled experiments to: 1) analyse the role of social norms in promoting the adoption of car sharing services (CSS) via descriptive and injunctive norms (N = 720); and 2) investigate potential crowd out effects when injunctive norms are used to promote a low-carbon transport hierarchy (N = 730). First-order effects show that social norms have a positive but marginal impact on the willingness to adopt CSS, and only injunctive norms have the potential to steer behaviour in the desired direction. Results also suggest that concerns about potential substitution effects between low-carbon transport options and CSS are not valid. With due limitations, our findings have various implications for policymaking, notably that for social norms to be effective, other policy instruments are critically needed. Of particular importance are the environmental effectiveness of CSS and complementarities between public transport and active mobility (i.e. walking and cycling).

The Effects of Crown Scorch on Post-fire Delayed Mortality Are Modified by Drought Exposure in California (USA)

Accurately predicting the mortality of trees that initially survive a fire event is important for management, such as planning post-fire salvage, planting, and prescribed fires. Although crown scorch has been successfully used to predict post-fire mortality (greater than one-year post-fire), it remains unclear whether other first-order fire effect metrics (e.g., stem char) and information on growing conditions can improve such predictions. Droughts can also elevate mortality and may interact, synergistically, with fire effects to influence post-fire tree survival. We used logistic regression to test whether drought exposure, as indicated by summarized monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over ten-years could improve predictions of delayed mortality (4–9 years post-fire) at the individual tree level in fire-affected forest inventory and analysis (FIA) plots in California (USA). We included crown scorch, bark thickness, stem char, soil char, slope, and aspect in the model as predictors. We selected the six most prevalent species to include in the model: canyon live oak, Douglas-fir, Jeffrey pine, incense-cedar, ponderosa pine, and white fir. Mean delayed mortality, based on tree count, across all FIA plots across all tree species and plots was 17%, and overall accuracy was good (AUC = 79%). Our model performed well, correctly predicting survivor trees (sensitivity of 0.98) but had difficulty correctly predicting the smaller number of mortality trees (specificity of 0.27) at the standard probability=0.5 mortality threshold. Crown scorch was the most influential predictor of tree mortality. Increasing crown scorch was associated with greater risk of delayed mortality for all six species, with trees exhibiting over 75% crown scorch having a probability of dying that exceeded 0.5. Increasing levels of stem char and soil char (first order indicators) were associated with increasing mortality risk but to less effect than crown scorch. We expected that greater drought exposure would increase delayed post-fire mortality, but we found that increasing drought exposure (median and minimum PDSI) was associated with a modest decrease in post-fire mortality. However, we did find that trees with high levels of crown scorch were less likely to survive with increasing drought exposure (median PDSI). Delayed mortality risk decreased as terrain slope increased. Taken together, our results suggest that trees with substantial crown damage may be more vulnerable to delayed mortality if exposed to drought and that crown scorch is an effective post-fire mortality predictor up to 10 years post-fire.

Risk sharing and industrial specialization in China

We investigate how risk sharing shapes industrial specialization across prefecture-level cities in China. By unbundling the mechanisms of risk sharing, we find that ex ante risk sharing generates a first-order stimulant effect on the geographical concentration of manufacturing industries, particularly for non-state-owned enterprises and cyclical industries. Ex post risk sharing matters only for state-owned enterprises. This result remains robust to instrument variable estimation and controlling for other determinants of industrial specialization. Finally, we show that interregional labor migration (special fiscal transfers) plays an important role in promoting interregional ex ante (ex post) risk sharing. The study implies that much more risk sharing and efficiency gains from industrial specialization would be achieved if capital markets and credit markets are better developed.