Firn Research Articles

Improved representation of the contemporary Greenland ice sheet firn layer by IMAU-FDM v1.2G

Abstract. The firn layer that covers 90 % of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) plays an important role in determining the response of the ice sheet to climate change. Meltwater can percolate into the firn layer and refreeze at greater depths, thereby temporarily preventing mass loss. However, as global warming leads to increasing surface melt, more surface melt may refreeze in the firn layer, thereby reducing the capacity to buffer subsequent episodes of melt. This can lead to a tipping point in meltwater runoff. It is therefore important to study the evolution of the Greenland firn layer in the past, present and future. In this study, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM (Firn Densification Model) v1.2G, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of freshly fallen snow, the dry-snow densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity using recently published parametrizations and by calibration to an extended set of observations of firn density, temperature and liquid water content at the GrIS. Overall, the updated model settings lead to higher firn air content and higher 10 m firn temperatures, owing to a lower density near the surface. The effect of the new model settings on the surface elevation change is investigated through three case studies located at Summit, KAN-U and FA-13. Most notably, the updated model shows greater inter- and intra-annual variability in elevation and an increased sensitivity to climate forcing.

Gas isotope thermometry in the South Pole and Dome Fuji ice cores provides evidence for seasonal rectification of ice core gas records

Abstract. Gas isotope thermometry using the isotopes of molecular nitrogen and argon has been used extensively to reconstruct past surface temperature change from Greenland ice cores. The gas isotope ratios δ15N and δ40Ar in the ice core are each set by the amount of gravitational and thermal fractionation in the firn. The gravitational component of fractionation is proportional to the firn thickness, and the thermal component is proportional to the temperature difference between the top and bottom of the firn column, which can be related to surface temperature change. Compared to Greenland, Antarctic climate change is typically more gradual and smaller in magnitude, which results in smaller thermal fractionation signals that are harder to detect. This has hampered application of gas isotope thermometry to Antarctic ice cores. Here, we present an analytical method for measuring δ15N and δ40Ar with a precision of 0.002 ‰ per atomic mass unit, a two-fold improvement on previous work. This allows us to reconstruct changes in firn thickness and temperature difference at the South Pole between 30 and 5 kyr BP. We find that variability in firn thickness is controlled in part by changes in snow accumulation rate, which is, in turn, influenced strongly by the along-flowline topography upstream of the ice core site. Variability in our firn temperature difference record cannot be explained by annual-mean processes. We therefore propose that the ice core gas isotopes contain a seasonal bias due to rectification of seasonal signals in the upper firn. The strength of the rectification also appears to be linked to fluctuations in the upstream topography. As further evidence for the existence of rectification, we present new data from the Dome Fuji ice core that are also consistent with a seasonal bias throughout the Holocene. Our findings have important implications for the interpretation of ice core gas records. For example, we show that the effects of upstream topography on ice core records can be significant at flank sites like the South Pole – they are responsible for some of the largest signals in our record. Presumably upstream signals impact other flank-flow ice cores such as EDML, Vostok, and EGRIP similarly. Additionally, future work is required to confirm the existence of seasonal rectification in polar firn, to determine how spatially and temporally widespread rectifier effects are, and to incorporate the relevant physics into firn air models.

Glaciers of the Koryak Highlands: assessment of the state using satellite images and field studies

The Koryak Highlands are a poorly explored area in terms of glaciation and its connection to climate. The purpose of this work is, using Sentinel-2 images (2019), to assess the state of glaciers at present against the background of climatic trends. Spatial patterns of trends of mean summer and annual temperatures, total precipitation and precipitation for the cold period from 1966 to 2019 were compiled: the temperature trends increase towards the Kamchatka Peninsula, and the mean summer temperature trends increase from 2 to 3°C. Precipitation trends increase from the continent to the coastal zone, with cold season trends changing from 0 to minus 50 mm. As a result, 212 glaciers and 279 rock glaciers were discovered in the Highlands, whereas 112 objects that had previously been recognised were not identified: either there is no glacier, or its area is less than 0.001 km2. The reduction in glacier areas compared to the USSR Glacier Inventory (1960s) varies widely by river basin, from 35 to 74%. The mean present glacier area varies from basin to basin from 0.4 to 0.11 km2. The glaciers are mainly corrie type of the N, NE and NW aspects. The change of average glacier firn line is from several tens of metres to 400–500 m.

Towards reconstructing the Arctic atmospheric methane history over the 20th century: measurement and modelling results for the North Greenland Ice Core Project firn

Abstract. Systematic measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4) mole fractions at the northern high latitudes only began in the early 1980s. Although CH4 measurements from Greenland ice cores consistently covered the period before ∼ 1900, no reliable observational record is available for the intermediate period. We newly report a data set of trace gases from the air trapped in firn (an intermediate stage between snow and glacial ice formation) collected at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site in 2001. We also use a set of published firn air data at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian ice Drilling) site. The two Arctic firn air data sets are analysed with a firn air transport model, which translates historical variations to depth profiles of trace gases in firn. We examine a variety of possible firn diffusivity profiles, using a suite of measured trace gases, and reconstruct the CH4 mole fraction by an iterative dating method. Although the reconstructions of the Arctic CH4 mole fraction before the mid-1970s still has large uncertainties (> 30 ppb – parts per billion), we find a relatively narrow range of atmospheric CH4 history that is consistent with both depth profiles of NGRIP and NEEM. The atmospheric CH4 history inferred by this study is more consistent with the atmospheric CH4 scenario prepared for the NEEM firn modelling than that for the CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) experiments. Our study shows that the atmospheric CH4 scenario used for the NEEM firn modelling is considered to be the current best choice for the Arctic CH4 history, but it should not be used to tune firn air transport models until being verified by further measurements from sources such as the Arctic ice cores. Given the current difficulty in reconstructing the CH4 history with low uncertainty from the firn air data sets from Greenland, future sampling and measurements of ice cores at a high-accumulation site may be the only way to accurately reconstruct the atmospheric CH4 trend over the 20th century.

Enhanced photodegradation of dimethoxybenzene isomers in/on ice compared to in aqueous solution

Abstract. Photochemical reactions of contaminants in snow and ice can be important sinks for organic and inorganic compounds deposited onto snow from the atmosphere and sources for photoproducts released from snowpacks into the atmosphere. Snow contaminants can be found in the bulk ice matrix, in internal liquid-like regions (LLRs), or in quasi-liquid layers (QLLs) at the air–ice interface, where they can readily exchange with the firn air. Some studies have reported that direct photochemical reactions occur faster in LLRs and QLLs than in aqueous solution, while others have found similar rates. Here, we measure the photodegradation rate constants for loss of the three dimethoxybenzene isomers under varying experimental conditions, including in aqueous solution, in LLRs, and at the air–ice interface of nature-identical snow. Relative to aqueous solution, we find modest photodegradation enhancements (3- and 6-fold) in LLRs for two of the isomers and larger enhancements (15- to 30-fold) at the air–ice interface for all three isomers. We use computational modeling to assess the impact of light absorbance changes on photodegradation rate enhancements at the interface. We find small (2–5 nm) bathochromic (red) absorbance shifts at the interface relative to in solution, which increases light absorption, but this factor only accounts for less than 50 % of the measured rate constant enhancements. The major factor responsible for photodegradation rate enhancements at the air–ice interface appears to be more efficient photodecay: estimated dimethoxybenzene quantum yields are 6- to 24-fold larger at the interface compared to in aqueous solution and account for the majority (51 %–96 %) of the observed enhancements. Using a hypothetical model compound with an assumed Gaussian-shaped absorbance peak, we find that a shift in the peak to higher or lower wavelengths can have a minor to substantial impact on photodecay rate constants, depending on the original location of the peak and the magnitude of the shift. Changes in other peak properties at the air–ice interface, such as peak width and height (i.e., molar absorption coefficient), can also impact rates of light absorption and direct photodecay. Our results suggest our current understanding of photodegradation processes underestimates the rate at which some compounds are broken down, as well as the release of photoproducts into the atmosphere.

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric history of carbon monoxide since preindustrial times reconstructed from multiple Greenland ice cores

Abstract. Carbon monoxide (CO) is a regulated pollutant and one of the key components determining the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. Obtaining a reliable record of atmospheric CO mixing ratios ([CO]) since preindustrial times is necessary to evaluate climate–chemistry models under conditions different from today and to constrain past CO sources. We present high-resolution measurements of CO mixing ratios from ice cores drilled at five different sites on the Greenland ice sheet that experience a range of snow accumulation rates, mean surface temperatures, and different chemical compositions. An optical-feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectrometer (OF-CEAS) was coupled with continuous melter systems and operated during four analytical campaigns conducted between 2013 and 2019. Overall, continuous flow analysis (CFA) of CO was carried out on over 700 m of ice. The CFA-based CO measurements exhibit excellent external precision (ranging from 3.3 to 6.6 ppbv, 1σ) and achieve consistently low blanks (ranging from 4.1±1.2 to 12.6±4.4 ppbv), enabling paleoatmospheric interpretations. However, the five CO records all exhibit variability that is too large and rapid to reflect past atmospheric mixing ratio changes. Complementary tests conducted on discrete ice samples demonstrate that these variations are not artifacts of the analytical method (i.e., production of CO from organics in the ice during melting) but are very likely related to in situ CO production within the ice before analysis. Evaluation of the signal resolution and co-investigation of high-resolution records of CO and total organic carbon (TOC) suggest that past atmospheric CO variations can be extracted from the records' baselines with accumulation rates higher than 20 cm w.e.yr-1 (water equivalent per year). Consistent baseline CO records from four Greenland sites are combined to produce a multisite average ice core reconstruction of past atmospheric CO for the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, covering the period from 1700 to 1957 CE. Such a reconstruction should be taken as an upper bound of past atmospheric CO abundance. From 1700 to 1875 CE, the record reveals stable or slightly increasing values in the 100–115 ppbv range. From 1875 to 1957 CE, the record indicates a monotonic increase from 114±4 to 147±6 ppbv. The ice core multisite CO record exhibits an excellent overlap with the atmospheric CO record from Greenland firn air which spans the 1950–2010 CE time period. The combined ice core and firn air CO history, spanning 1700–2010 CE, provides useful constraints for future model studies of atmospheric changes since the preindustrial period.

Large interannual variability in supraglacial lakes around East Antarctica

Antarctic supraglacial lakes (SGLs) have been linked to ice shelf collapse and the subsequent acceleration of inland ice flow, but observations of SGLs remain relatively scarce and their interannual variability is largely unknown. This makes it difficult to assess whether some ice shelves are close to thresholds of stability under climate warming. Here, we present the first observations of SGLs across the entire East Antarctic Ice Sheet over multiple melt seasons (2014–2020). Interannual variability in SGL volume is >200% on some ice shelves, but patterns are highly asynchronous. More extensive, deeper SGLs correlate with higher summer (December-January-February) air temperatures, but comparisons with modelled melt and runoff are complex. However, we find that modelled January melt and the ratio of November firn air content to summer melt are important predictors of SGL volume on some potentially vulnerable ice shelves, suggesting large increases in SGLs should be expected under future atmospheric warming.

More Realistic Intermediate Depth Dry Firn Densification in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

AbstractEarth system models account for seasonal snow cover, but many do not accommodate the deeper snowpack on ice sheets (aka firn) that slowly transforms to ice under accumulating snowfall. To accommodate and resolve firn depths of up to 60 m in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's land surface model (ELM), we add 11 layers to its snowpack and evaluate three dry snow compaction equations in multi‐century simulations. After comparing results from ELM simulations (forced with atmospheric reanalysis) with empirical data, we find that implementing into ELM a two‐stage firn densification model produces more accurate dry firn densities at intermediate depths of 20–60 m. Compared to modeling firn using the equations in the (12 layer) Community Land Model (version 5), switching to the two‐stage firn densification model (with 16 layers) significantly decreases root‐mean‐square errors in upper 60 m dry firn densities by an average of 41 kg m−3 (31%). Simulations with three different firn density parameterizations show that the two‐stage firn densification model should be used for applications that prioritize accurate upper 60 m firn air content (FAC) in regions where the mean annual surface temperature is greater than roughly −31°C. Because snow metamorphism, firn density, and FAC are major components in modeling ice sheet surface albedo, melt water retention, and climatic mass balance, these developments advance broader efforts to simulate the response of land ice to atmospheric forcing in Earth system models.

Supervised classification of slush and ponded water on Antarctic ice shelves using Landsat 8 imagery

AbstractSurface meltwater is becoming increasingly widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. It is stored within surface ponds and streams, or within firn pore spaces, which may saturate to form slush. Slush can reduce firn air content, increasing an ice-shelf's vulnerability to break-up. To date, no study has mapped the changing extent of slush across ice shelves. Here, we use Google Earth Engine and Landsat 8 images from six ice shelves to generate training classes using a k-means clustering algorithm, which are used to train a random forest classifier to identify both slush and ponded water. Validation using expert elicitation gives accuracies of 84% and 82% for the ponded water and slush classes, respectively. Errors result from subjectivity in identifying the ponded water/slush boundary, and from inclusion of cloud and shadows. We apply our classifier to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf for the entire 2013–20 Landsat 8 record. On average, 64% of all surface meltwater is classified as slush and 36% as ponded water. Total meltwater areal extent is greatest between late January and mid-February. This highlights the importance of mapping slush when studying surface meltwater on ice shelves. Future research will apply the classifier across all Antarctic ice shelves.

Seasonal evolution of Antarctic supraglacial lakes in 2015–2021 and links to environmental controls

Abstract. Supraglacial meltwater accumulation on ice shelves may have important implications for future sea level rise. Despite recent progress in the understanding of Antarctic surface hydrology, potential influences on ice shelf stability as well as links to environmental drivers remain poorly constrained. In this study, we employ state-of-the-art machine learning on Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to provide new insight into the inter-annual and intra-annual evolution of surface hydrological features across six major Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctic ice shelves. For the first time, we produce a high-resolution record of supraglacial lake extent dynamics for the period 2015–2021 at unprecedented 10 m spatial resolution and bi-weekly temporal scale. Through synergetic use of optical and SAR data, we obtain a more complete mapping record also enabling the delineation of buried lakes. Our results for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves reveal below-average meltwater ponding during most of melting seasons 2015–2018 and above-average meltwater ponding throughout summer 2019–2020 and early 2020–2021 considering years 2015–2021 as a reference period. Meltwater ponding on investigated East Antarctic ice shelves was far more variable, with above-average lake extents during most 2016–2019 melting seasons and below-average lake extents during 2020–2021, considering the reference interval 2016–2021. This study is the first to investigate relationships with climate drivers both spatially and temporally including time lag analysis. The results indicate that supraglacial lake formation in 2015–2021 is coupled to the complex interplay of local, regional and large-scale environmental drivers with similar driving factors over both ice sheet regions. In particular, varying air temperature, solar radiation and wind conditions influenced supraglacial lake formation over all six ice shelves despite strong local to regional discrepancies, as revealed through pixel-based correlation analysis. Furthermore, regional climatic conditions were shown to be influenced by Southern Hemisphere atmospheric modes showing large-scale impacts on the spatio-temporal evolution of supraglacial lakes as well as on above- or below-average meltwater ponding with respect to the period 2015–2021. Finally, the local glaciological setting, including melt–albedo feedbacks and the firn air content, was revealed to strongly influence supraglacial lake distribution. Recent increases in Antarctic Peninsula surface ponding point towards a further reduction in the firn air content, implying an increased risk for ponding and hydrofracture. In addition, lateral meltwater transport was observed over both Antarctic regions with similar implications for future ice shelf stability.

Retrieval of Firn Thickness by Means of Polarisation Phase Differences in L-Band SAR Data

The knowledge of glacier zones’ extent and their temporal variations is fundamental for the retrieval of surface mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets. In this context, a key parameter is the firn line (FL), the lower boundary of the percolation zone, whose location is an indicator of time-integrated mass balance changes. Several approaches have been developed in the last decades to map the FL by means of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, mainly exploiting backscatter intensities and their seasonal variation. In this paper, an alternative approach is proposed, based on co-polarisation phase differences (CPDs). In particular, CPDs are interpreted as the result of propagation through anisotropic firn layers and are, therefore, proposed as an indicator of the presence of firn. A model is employed to demonstrate the link between CPDs and firn depth, indicating the potential of polarimetric SAR to improve firn characterization beyond spatial extent and FL detection. The proposed approach is demonstrated on L-band airborne data, acquired on 21 May 2015 by the F-SAR sensor of DLR in West Greenland during the ARCTIC15 campaign, and validated with in-situ information available from other studies.

H2 in Antarctic firn air: Atmospheric reconstructions and implications for anthropogenic emissions

The atmospheric history of molecular hydrogen (H2) from 1852 to 2003 was reconstructed from measurements of firn air collected at Megadunes, Antarctica. The reconstruction shows that H2 levels in the southern hemisphere were roughly constant near 330 parts per billion (ppb; nmol H2 mol-1 air) during the mid to late 1800s. Over the twentieth century, H2 levels rose by about 70% to 550 ppb. The reconstruction shows good agreement with the H2 atmospheric history based on firn air measurements from the South Pole. The broad trends in atmospheric H2 over the twentieth century can be explained by increased methane oxidation and anthropogenic emissions. The H2 rise shows no evidence of deceleration during the last quarter of the twentieth century despite an expected reduction in automotive emissions following more stringent regulations. During the late twentieth century, atmospheric CO levels decreased due to a reduction in automotive emissions. It is surprising that atmospheric H2 did not respond similarly as automotive exhaust is thought to be the dominant source of anthropogenic H2. The monotonic late twentieth century rise in H2 levels is consistent with late twentieth-century flask air measurements from high southern latitudes. An additional unknown source of H2 is needed to explain twentieth-century trends in atmospheric H2 and to resolve the discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates of the anthropogenic source term. The firn air-based atmospheric history of H2 provides a baseline from which to assess human impact on the H2 cycle over the last 150 y and validate models that will be used to project future trends in atmospheric composition as H2 becomes a more common energy source.

Diffusivity and Solubility of H2 in Ice Ih: Implications for the Behavior of H2 in Polar Ice

AbstractReconstructions of paleoatmospheric H2 using polar firn air and ice cores would lead to a better understanding of the H2 biogeochemical cycle and how it is influenced by climate change and human activity. In this study, the permeability, diffusivity, and solubility of H2 are determined experimentally in ice Ih at temperatures relevant to polar ice sheets (199–253 K). The experimental data are used in conjunction with simplified diffusion models to assess the implications for: (a) Diffusion of H2 from pressurized closed bubbles to open pores in polar firn, (b) diffusive smoothing of H2 gradients in the ice sheet, and (c) post‐coring diffusive losses of H2 from ice core samples. The results indicate that diffusive equilibrium between open and closed pores is likely achieved in the firn lock‐in zone. Diffusive smoothing of atmospheric variations is significant and should be accounted for in atmospheric reconstructions on millennial time scales. Diffusive losses from a bubbly ice sample are sufficiently slow that samples may be meaningfully analyzed for H2 after storage on the order of a year. These results suggest that the mobility of H2 in ice should not preclude the reconstruction of paleoatmospheric H2 from firn air and ice cores.

Stratospheric carbon isotope fractionation and tropospheric histories of CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113 isotopologues

Abstract. We present novel measurements of the carbon isotope composition of CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), and CFC-113 (CF2ClCFCl2), three atmospheric trace gases that are important for both stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. These measurements were carried out on air samples collected in the stratosphere – the main sink region for these gases – and on air extracted from deep polar firn snow. We quantify, for the first time, the apparent isotopic fractionation, ϵapp(13C), for these gases as they are destroyed in the high- and mid-latitude stratosphere: ϵapp(CFC-12, high-latitude) =(-20.2±4.4) ‰, and ϵapp(CFC-113, high-latitude) =(-9.4±4.4) ‰, ϵapp(CFC-12, mid-latitude) =(-30.3±10.7) ‰, and ϵapp(CFC-113, mid-latitude) =(-34.4±9.8) ‰. Our CFC-11 measurements were not sufficient to calculate ϵapp(CFC-11), so we instead used previously reported photolytic fractionation for CFC-11 and CFC-12 to scale our ϵapp(CFC-12), resulting in ϵapp(CFC-11, high-latitude) =(-7.8±1.7) ‰ and ϵapp(CFC-11, mid-latitude) =(-11.7±4.2) ‰. Measurements of firn air were used to construct histories of the tropospheric isotopic composition, δT(13C), for CFC-11 (1950s to 2009), CFC-12 (1950s to 2009), and CFC-113 (1970s to 2009), with δT(13C) increasing for each gas. We used ϵapp(high-latitude), which was derived from more data, and a constant isotopic composition of emissions, δE(13C), to model δT(13C, CFC-11), δT(13C, CFC-12), and δT(13C, CFC-113). For CFC-11 and CFC-12, modelled δT(13C) was consistent with measured δT(13C) for the entire period covered by the measurements, suggesting that no dramatic change in δE(13C, CFC-11) or δE(13C, CFC-12) has occurred since the 1950s. For CFC-113, our modelled δT(13C, CFC-113) did not agree with our measurements earlier than 1980. This discrepancy may be indicative of a change in δE(13C, CFC-113). However, this conclusion is based largely on a single sample and only just significant outside the 95 % confidence interval. Therefore more work is needed to independently verify this temporal trend in the global tropospheric 13C isotopic composition of CFC-113. Our modelling predicts increasing δT(13C, CFC-11), δT(13C, CFC-12), and δT(13C, CFC-113) into the future. We investigated the effect of recently reported new CFC-11 emissions on background δT(13C, CFC-11) by fixing model emissions after 2012 and comparing δT(13C, CFC-11) in this scenario to the model base case. The difference in δT(13C, CFC-11) between these scenarios was 1.4 ‰ in 2050. This difference is smaller than our model uncertainty envelope and would therefore require improved modelling and measurement precision as well as better quantified isotopic source compositions to detect.

Pure rotational Raman spectroscopy applied to N2/O2 analysis of air bubbles in polar firn

AbstractEarlier gas measurements of firn air (atmosphere in open pore channels) at polar sites have revealed the occurrence of gas fractionation phenomena during bubble close-off, in addition to well-known thermal and gravitational gas separation. Nevertheless, because of difficulties posed by measurement, little is known about the distribution of air constituents in already closed pores (bubbles) in firn. Herein, we describe the application of high-sensitivity pure rotational Raman spectroscopy, combined with sample immersion in the fluorocarbon-based inert fluid for removing the optical disturbance by diffused reflection. That application efficiently elicits information about nitrogen and oxygen composition ratios (N2/O2 or O2/N2) for each air bubble in firn. The developed methodology presents important implications for elucidating how gas records are formed and modified in the course of pore close-off in polar firn.

The 32-year record-high surface melt in 2019/2020 on the northern George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract. In the 2019/2020 austral summer, the surface melt duration and extent on the northern George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) was exceptional compared to the 31 previous summers of distinctly lower melt. This finding is based on analysis of near-continuous 41-year satellite microwave radiometer and scatterometer data, which are sensitive to meltwater on the ice shelf surface and in the near-surface snow. Using optical satellite imagery from Landsat 8 (2013 to 2020) and Sentinel-2 (2017 to 2020), record volumes of surface meltwater ponding were also observed on the northern GVIIS in 2019/2020, with 23 % of the surface area covered by 0.62 km3 of ponded meltwater on 19 January. These exceptional melt and surface ponding conditions in 2019/2020 were driven by sustained air temperatures ≥0 ∘C for anomalously long periods (55 to 90 h) from late November onwards, which limited meltwater refreezing. The sustained warm periods were likely driven by warm, low-speed (≤7.5 m s−1) northwesterly and northeasterly winds and not by foehn wind conditions, which were only present for 9 h total in the 2019/2020 melt season. Increased surface ponding on ice shelves may threaten their stability through increased potential for hydrofracture initiation; a risk that may increase due to firn air content depletion in response to near-surface melting.

Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble

AbstractProjected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios.

Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract. We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.

The 2020 Larsen C Ice Shelf surface melt is a 40-year record high

Abstract. Along with record-breaking summer air temperatures at an Antarctic Peninsula meteorological station in February 2020, the Larsen C ice shelf experienced an exceptionally long and extensive 2019/2020 melt season. We use a 40-year time series of passive and scatterometer satellite microwave data, which are sensitive to the presence of liquid water in the snow pack, to reveal that the extent and duration of melt observed on the ice shelf in the austral summer of 2019/2020 was the greatest on record. We find that unusual perturbations to Southern Hemisphere modes of atmospheric flow, including a persistently positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the spring and a very rare Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming in September 2019, preceded the exceptionally warm Antarctic Peninsula summer. It is likely that teleconnections between the tropics and southern high latitudes were able to bring sufficient heat via the atmosphere and ocean to the Antarctic Peninsula to drive the extreme Larsen C Ice Shelf melt. The record-breaking melt of 2019/2020 brought to an end the trend of decreasing melt that had begun in 1999/2000, will reinitiate earlier thinning of the ice shelf by depletion of the firn air content, and probably affected a much greater region than Larsen C Ice Shelf.

Low elevation of Svalbard glaciers drives high mass loss variability

Compared to other Arctic ice masses, Svalbard glaciers are low-elevated with flat interior accumulation areas, resulting in a marked peak in their current hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) at ~450 m above sea level. Since summer melt consistently exceeds winter snowfall, these low-lying glaciers can only survive by refreezing a considerable fraction of surface melt and rain in the porous firn layer covering their accumulation zones. We use a high-resolution climate model to show that modest atmospheric warming in the mid-1980s forced the firn zone to retreat upward by ~100 m to coincide with the hypsometry peak. This led to a rapid areal reduction of firn cover available for refreezing, and strongly increased runoff from dark, bare ice areas, amplifying mass loss from all elevations. As the firn line fluctuates around the hypsometry peak in the current climate, Svalbard glaciers will continue to lose mass and show high sensitivity to temperature perturbations.