Firm Exit Research Articles

Throwing good money after bad: Zombie lending and the supply chain contagion of firm exit

This paper studies whether the bailout of downstream firms helps stop the supply chain propagation of business failure. By analyzing persistent zombie lending in China, we show that such a bailout policy does not work. Zombie lending to downstream firms does not reduce the exit likelihood of upstream firms. Worse, it distorts efficiency-based firm exit in upstream industries. The exit distortion effect works through the trade credit chain and is more profound in industries with stricter financial constraints and tighter supply chain connections. Our findings reveal the importance of credit allocation efficiency for the Schumpeterian process of creative destruction that is essential for economic growth.

Digital Finance and Firm Exit: Mathematical Model and Empirical Evidence from Industrial Firms

From the perspective of financial constraint, this paper constructs a mathematical model to analyze the impact of digital financial development on firm exit probability. The relationship between digital finance and firm exit was tested empirically based on the industrial firm data in 2011–2013. The results show that digital financial development significantly suppresses firm exit probability. Mechanism analysis suggests that digital financial development can ease the information asymmetry of the credit market, facilitate the credit acquisition of firms, and alleviate the constraint on corporate financing, thereby reducing the probability of firm exit. This paper provides the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for controlling firm exit from the angle of digital finance development.

Entry and Exit of Informal Firms and Development

Non-farm informal businesses comprise the majority of the firm distribution in developing countries. We document novel stylized facts about entry and exit of informal, non-farm firms using nationally representative panel data over 15 years and across regions with varying levels of local economic development in Vietnam. First, we find that informal businesses exhibit rates of entry and exit around 14–18% annually. Entry and exit rates are similar and highly correlated at a point in time, within industries, and within regions. They both decline over time and across space with economic development. Second, although market selection influences which firms survive, entry and exit have little net effect on aggregate (revenue) productivity or hiring of workers outside the household. This owes to overlapping labor productivity of entering and exiting firms and low subsequent productivity growth and hiring among the surviving entrants. Nonetheless, entry and exit are associated with large changes in individual income. Third, the large overlap in revenue of entering and exiting informal businesses and the high correlation between entry and exit rates are related to the education of owners and their economic activities before and after operating an informal business. Informal business owners are less educated on average than wage workers in the formal sector, but more educated than agricultural workers. The transitions in and out of operating an informal business reflect the underlying structure of economic activities of the working-age population, with education gaps also playing a role. The most common transition into non-farm businesses is to and from self-employment in agriculture. The likelihood of this transition declines with economic development, highlighting the role of net entry from agriculture into informal non-farm businesses in structural change.

Correction to: Understanding firm exit: a systematic literature review

We regret that due to an oversight in the editorial process the information concerning the paper by Kato, Onishi, Honjo in the second paragraph of section 4 and in Table 3 is inconsistent with the final version.

The impact of policy uncertainty on the M&A exit of startup firms

The impact of policy uncertainty on the M&A exit of startup firms

Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy

We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with potentially rigid capital operating costs. Rich households satiate their demand for goods/services (and consume an endowment on the margin), whereas poor households’ spending on goods/services is limited by their income (which in turn depends on spending by the rich and on fiscal transfers). The model implies that inequality has large negative effects on output, while also diminishing the effects of demand-side fiscal stimulus. COVID restrictions can reduce current-period GDP by more than is directly associated with the restrictions themselves when rigid capital costs induce firm exit. Higher inequality is associated with larger restriction multipliers. The effectiveness of fiscal policies depends on inequality and the joint distribution of capital operating costs and firm revenues. Furthermore, COVID19 restrictions can cause future inflation, as households tilt their expenditure toward the future.

Environmental regulation, firm heterogeneity, and intra-industry reallocation

We describe a model with firm heterogeneity and endogenous pollution abatement to show how emission intensity and exit/entry selections vary across firms. Using Chinese firm-level emission and production data, we find evidence that low productivity firms have higher emission intensity. The emission intensity of firms with productivity below 10 percentile is 5.26 times larger than firms with productivity above 90 percentile. Combining the Annual Survey of Chinese Industrial Enterprises (CIE) data, and applying a triple-difference research design, we find that firms with high emission intensity or low productivity have a higher probability of exit when exposed to strict environmental policy. We also find the exit of unproductive firms contributes to aggregate productivity and strict environmental policy can help to reduce misallocation.

Natural disasters, firm survival, and growth: Evidence from the Ise Bay Typhoon, Japan

AbstractThis paper investigates the damage impact of the 1959 Ise Bay Typhoon on firm survival and survivor performance in Nagoya City, Japan. We combine firm‐level data with a local damage proxy storm surge‐induced flooding. We find that firms in retail and wholesale were less and those in manufacturing more likely to survive after being flooding. There was some evidence of spillover effects from nearby regions on firm exit. Surviving firm performance was heterogeneous across sectors in that some (manufacturing and construction) upgraded and others (retail and wholesale) their capital. Indirect impacts from nearby regions were both positive and negative, contingent on the sector of operation.

Turmoil over the crisis: innovation capabilities and firm exit

This work investigates the relationship between the characteristics and survival probabilities of firms, distinguishing between “involuntary” firm exit and exit by merger and acquisition (M&A). More in detail, we study how, and to what extent, innovation capabilities, as proxied by patents and trademarks, are able to shape, together with standard performance variables, the observed dynamics at the firm level. By using comprehensive data on Italian firms from business registers, we separate the administrative procedures leading to “involuntary” exit from those ending up with an event of M&A. We find that while higher productivity is associated with a lower probability of “involuntary” exit, productivity increases the chances of being the target for M&A. As far as intellectual property instruments are concerned, they tend to reduce the probability of both “involuntary” exit and M&A. However, the relative importance of the two instruments differs according to the exit route: patents are more relevant than trademarks in preventing “involuntary” exit, while the opposite is true for M&A.Plain English Summary We investigate firm’s exit after a crisis. Overall innovation plays a positive role, but the relative importance of IP depends on the exit route: patents are more relevant than trademarks against “involuntary” exit, while the opposite is true for M&A. We resort to the virtual universe of Italian limited liability firms from manufacturing, trade, and service to investigate the determinants of firm survival over the period 2010–2014. We scrutinize detailed administrative data on significant events occurring to firms to distinguish between events leading to involuntary exit and to M&A. In addition to the evidence on innovation, our results show that higher productivity decreases the probability of “involuntary” exit, yet productivity increases the chances of being the target for M&A. Taken together, these findings warn against a simplistic perspective on exit: the role of innovation and firm characteristics heavily depends on the exit route.

Understanding firm exit: a systematic literature review

We investigate the corpus of literature on firm exit by means of a systematic literature review (SLR) which yields a final sample of 142 journal articles for the period 1991–2020. The phenomenon of firm exit is explored from a variety of perspectives: business exit; exit at the individual entrepreneur level; exit from specific markets; exit from foreign markets; and the role of exit for industrial dynamics conceived more broadly. Special attention is given to the various exit routes, including voluntary liquidation, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), initial public offerings (IPO), and of course bankruptcy. The SLR sets the scene for the Special Issue papers that are presented towards the end, and we conclude with some suggestions for future research.The Plain English Summary This article develops a systematic literature review around three decades of firm exit research, patterns, developments, and intriguing gaps. In this paper, we systematically review 142 studies on firm exit from various perspectives, identify major patterns, and outline the debate around firm exit. We propose reflections useful for scholars willing to engage in firm exit research in the future and set the scene for the special issue papers. Overall, this work shows the remarkable progress made in the area of firm exit that has evolved from the view of exit as a homogenous event signaling failure to a vision of exit as a heterogenous event. Exploring the sources of heterogeneity of exits from various perspectives could offer promising paths for future research.

The persistence of family firms: How does performance threshold affect family firm exit?

Research on family firms provides mixed evidence of the effect of family ownership on firm performance and exit outcomes. Drawing on threshold theory and the socioemotional wealth perspective, we argue that family firms have lower performance thresholds than non-family firms, reducing the likelihood of firm exit. Using a longitudinal dataset of 1191 firms over the period 2008–2011, we find support for this contention, suggesting that performance threshold is an important, yet poorly studied, construct for understanding exits of family versus non-family firms.Plain English Summary Why firms with similar economic performance make different exit decisions? We find evidence that family firms have lower “performance thresholds” than non-family firms, reducing family firms’ likelihood of exit. Using a longitudinal dataset, we examine differences in performance threshold between family and non-family firms and help clarify why some firms persist with their ventures even though their performance may indicate they should exit the market. Our theory and related findings suggest that nonfinancial attributes such as identity, the ability to exercise family influence, and to hand the business down to future generations may affect family firms’ attitudes toward exit decisions. Our study contributes to sharpening our understanding of exit in family firms while motivating future work on exit strategies in family firms and other contexts.

Cyclical net entry and exit

This paper examines how the interplay between cyclical net entry and exit of firms and search and matching frictions affect business cycle dynamics. We show cyclical net entry and exit reallocates inputs across firms and destroys jobs in recessions, which amplifies and skews business cycle dynamics. The model matches the volatility and skewness of real activity, the fast rise and slow decline in unemployment that occurs in recessions, and the counter-cyclical variation in macroeconomic uncertainty. Cyclical net entry and exit generates a 20% increase in volatility, 40% increase in skewness, and 55% increase in the welfare cost of business cycles.

Recovery and exit of zombie firms in Portugal

The resources sunk in zombie firms have risen over the last two decades, hampering productivity growth in developed economies. In this paper, we examine the recovery and exit of zombie firms among small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME), as well as the determinants of these transitions. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the determinants of the probability of a zombie recovering or exiting in a European context. The study also contributes to the discussion of the definition of zombie firms. Based on a panel of Portuguese manufacturing and services firms covering the 2004–2017 period, we do find a widespread presence of zombies. As expected, they are relatively less productive than non-zombies, while the probability of transition into recovery and exit is relatively low, which we interpret as evidence in favour of the presence of high barriers to firm mobility. In turn, the regression results show that downsizing and restructuring, as well as debt restructuring, are crucial in enhancing recovery of zombie firms. These are non-trivial results from the perspective of managers and policy makers. We performed several exercises using alternative definitions of zombie firms and estimation techniques and found that our findings are robust.Plain English Summary A 1% decline in the share of highly indebted and unprofitable firms (i.e. zombies) is estimated to increase the average labour productivity by 3.1 percent. Recovery of zombies in particular can be enhanced by downsizing and restructuring. Based on a very large panel of Portuguese small- and medium-sized manufacturing and services firms, covering the 2004–2017 period, we do find a widespread presence of zombie firms. Moreover, the chance of these firms to recover or exit is relatively low, an evidence of the presence of high barriers to firm mobility and resource misallocation. Our results have important managerial and policy implications: (1) a coordinated and holistic restructuring strategy (technological, operational and debt-related) is crucial to increase the likelihood of recovery of weak companies; (2) governments should formulate an adequate institutional framework in order to strengthen the selection of zombie firms, namely by designing more reallocation-friendly insolvency regimes and discouraging creditors to refinance unviable firms.

Employment Differentiation, Minimum Wages and Firm Exit

The economic literature acknowledges that labor markets can often be described by monopsonistic competition. In such a structure, employers have market power and in the long run, zero profits due to the free entry and exit of firms. This article builds a model to analyze the role of minimum wages when employment is differentiated. It shows that first best and second best minimum wages can increase employment and improve efficiency by reducing market power, at the expense of having firm exit, higher concentration among employers, and less employment variety. As such, this article can provide insights on the higher firm exit rates observed among new, small and lower productivity firms.

Business Dynamics in the Netherlands 2020: The First Phase of the COVID-19 Crisis

This paper analyses business dynamics in the Netherlands in 2020, including the first phase of the COVID-19 crisis. Even though the number of bankruptcies is historically low, the number of firm exits is historically high. Despite the crisis, the number of new firms has been increasing in 2020, and arrived at a historical high level. There is an acceleration of the growth trend of new online (and related) business. We analyze business dynamics with monthly and quarterly data, which provides a more granular picture than the yearly business dynamics data.

Foreign and multinational ownership impact on firm exit: A sectoral analysis

This article examines the impact of foreign and multinational ownership on firm exit using a sample of Portuguese firms for the period 2007–2016, with Kaplan–Meier survival functions and a Cox proportional hazard model. The results show that purely domestic firms endure worse survival prospects than multinationals, but this is more related to firm‐level variables and not because of the effects of foreignness or multinational ownership. The disaggregated results at a sectoral level provide support for the contingent role of foreignness in very specific sectors of the Portuguese economy.

Finance and Firm Volatility: Evidence from Small Business Lending in China

The online trading platform Alibaba provides financial technology (FinTech) credit for millions of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Using a novel data set of daily sales and an internal credit score threshold that governs the allocation of credit, we apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) to explore the causal effect of credit access on firm volatility. We find that credit access significantly reduces firm sales volatility and that the effect is stronger for firms with fewer alternative sources of financing. We further look at firm exit probability and find that firms with access to FinTech credit are less likely to go bankrupt or exit the business in the future. Additional channel tests reveal that firms with FinTech credit invest more in advertising and product/sector diversification, particularly during business downturns, which serves as effective mechanisms through which credit access reduces firm volatility. Overall, our findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of FinTech credit in MSMEs. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.

EQUILIBRIUM INDETERMINACY, ENDOGENOUS ENTRY AND EXIT, AND INCREASING RETURNS TO SPECIALIZATION

This paper systematically examines the interrelations between equilibrium indeterminacy, endogenous entry and exit of intermediate input firms, and increasing returns to specialization within two versions of a parsimonious one-sector monopolistically competitive RBC model. The technology for producing an intermediate good is postulated to display internal increasing returns to scale in our benchmark framework, whereas positive productive externalities are considered in the alternative setting. We analytically show that either formulation will exhibit belief-driven cyclical fluctuations provided the equilibrium wage-hours locus is positively sloped and steeper than the household’s labor supply curve. We also find that ceteris paribus our alternative macroeconomy is more susceptible to indeterminacy and sunspots than the baseline counterpart.

Entrepreneurial experience and firm exit over the business cycle

AbstractIn this paper, I explore business cycle‐related dynamics in differences in exit decisions between serial and novice entrepreneurs. Using time series geographic variation in economic conditions, I examine how businesses founded by serial and novice entrepreneurs differentially respond to changes on average state personal income, alternative employment options, and home values. Weibull survival model estimates indicate that serial entrepreneurs are more likely to endure declines in aggregate income and credit availability, but are relatively more likely to go out of business as slack increases in the labor market (increases in unemployment rate). In the second part of the paper, I provide evidence that these dynamics are driven by differences in business strategies and the use of financial resources.

Political Risk and Firm Exit: Evidence from the US-China Trade War

Does international conflict induce foreign firms to “follow the flag” and exit from a profitable market? We show that the US-China trade war broadly elevated political risks for multinational corporations (MNCs) operating in China, increasing firm exit overall. However, investment treaties can mitigate political risks at the country level while firm entrenchment determines resilience to risk at the firm level. Using a new dataset on all foreign-invested firms registered in China between 2014 and 2019, we implement difference-in-difference and triple-difference models to isolate the impact of increased political risks on MNC exit in the context of the US-China trade war. Our findings show that US and allied firms were not more likely to exit China, suggesting that foreign direct investment outflows do not follow the flag. Instead, firm exit is determined by the balance of heightened political risks against the availability of firm-level and institutional resources to mitigate these risks.