Fireball Data Research Articles

A generalizable method for estimating meteor shower false positives

Context. The determination of meteor shower or parent body associations is inherently a statistical problem. Traditional methods, primarily the similarity discriminants, have limitations, particularly in handling the increasing volume and complexity of meteoroid orbit data. Aims. We introduce a new more statistically robust and generalizable method for estimating false positive detections in meteor shower identification, leveraging kernel density estimation (KDE). The method is applied to fireball data from the European Fireball Network, a comprehensive photographic fireball observation network established in 1963 for the detailed monitoring and analysis of fireballs across central Europe Methods. Utilizing a dataset of 824 fireballs observed by the European Fireball Network, we applied a multivariate Gaussian kernel within KDE and Z-score data normalization. Our method analyzes the parameter space of meteoroid orbits and geocentric impact characteristics, focusing on four different similarity discriminants: DSH, D′, DH, and DN. Results. The KDE methodology consistently converges toward a true established shower-associated fireball rate within the EFN dataset of 18–25% for all criteria. This indicates that the approach provides a more statistically robust estimate of the shower-associated component. Conclusions. Our findings highlight the potential of KDE combined with appropriate data normalization in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of meteor shower analysis. This method addresses the existing challenges posed by traditional similarity discriminants and offers a versatile solution adaptable to varying datasets and parameters.

Infrasound signals of fireballs detected by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Context. Fireballs are particularly bright meteors produced by large meteoroids or small asteroids that enter the Earth’s atmosphere. These objects, of sizes from some tens of centimetres to a few metres, are difficult to record with typical meteor detection methods. Therefore, their characteristics and fluxes are still not well known. Infrasound signals can travel particularly well through the atmosphere over large distances. Impacting meteoroids and asteroids can produce those signals, as well as space-detectable optical signatures. Aims. This paper aims to study and compare fireball data from the Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs) on board the two Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16 and GOES-17) and the data from the infrasound stations of the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (Vienna, Austria). The overall goal is a more accurate energy estimation of meteoroids and asteroids as well as a better understanding of both methods. Methods. The data consist of the brightest 50 events in the GLM database, as identified by recorded peak energy. For 24 of those fireballs, a significant signature could be identified in infrasound data. The data are supplemented by, if available, optical fireball data based on US government sensors on satellites provided by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). Results. The energies as computed from the GLM data range from 3.17 × 107 J up to 1.32 × 1012 J with a mean of 1.65 × 1011 J. The smallest meteoroid recorded by infrasound had an energy of about 1.8 × 109 J, the largest one of about 9.6 × 1013 J, and the mean energy is 5.2 × 1012 J. For 19 events, data were simultaneously available from all three data sources. A comparison between the energy values for the same event as determined from the different data sources indicates that CNEOS tends to give the lowest energy estimations. Analysis of infrasound data results in the largest derived energies. Conclusions. The energies derived using the three methods often deviate from one another by as much as an order of magnitude. This indicates a potential observational bias and highlights uncertainties in fireball energy estimation. By determining the fireball energy with another independent method, this study can help to better quantify and address this range of uncertainty.

Statistical analysis of fireballs: Seismic signature survey

Abstract Fireballs are infrequently recorded by seismic sensors on the ground. If recorded, they are usually reported as one-off events. This study is the first seismic bulk analysis of the largest single fireball data set, observed by the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in Australia in the period 2014–2019. The DFN typically observes fireballs from cm-m scale impactors. We identified 25 fireballs in seismic time series data recorded by the Australian National Seismograph Network (ANSN). This corresponds to 1.8% of surveyed fireballs, at the kinetic energy range of $10^6$ – $10^{10}$ J. The peaks observed in the seismic time series data were consistent with calculated arrival times of the direct airwave or ground-coupled Rayleigh wave caused by shock waves by the fireball in the atmosphere (either due to fragmentation or the passage of the Mach cone). Our work suggests that identification of fireball events in the seismic time series data depends on both physical properties of a fireball (such as fireball energy and entry angle in the atmosphere) and the sensitivity of a seismic instrument. This work suggests that fireballs are likely detectable within 200 km direct air distance between a fireball and seismic station, for sensors used in the ANSN. If each DFN observatory had been accompanied by a seismic sensor of similar sensitivity, 50% of surveyed fireballs could have been detected. These statistics justify the future consideration of expanding the DFN camera network into the seismic domain.

3D meteoroid trajectories

Meteoroid modelling of fireball data typically uses a one dimensional model along a straight line triangulated trajectory. The assumption of a straight line trajectory has been considered an acceptable simplification for fireballs, but it has not been rigorously tested. The unique capability of the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) to triangulate discrete observation times gives the opportunity to investigate the deviation of a meteoroid’s position to different model fits. Here we assess the viability of a straight line assumption for fireball data in two meteorite-dropping test cases observed by the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in Australia – one over 21 s (DN151212_03), one under 5 seconds (DN160410_03). We show that a straight line is not valid for these two meteorite dropping events and propose a three dimensional particle filter to model meteoroid positions without any straight line constraints. The single body equations in three dimensions, along with the luminosity equation, are applied to the particle filter methodology described by Sansom et al. (2017). Modelling fireball camera network data in three dimensions has not previously been attempted. This allows the raw astrometric, line-of-sight observations to be incorporated directly. In analysing these two DFN events, the triangulated positions based on a straight line assumption result in the modelled meteoroid positions diverging up to 3.09 km from the calculated observed point (for DN151212_03). Even for the more typical fireball event, DN160410_03, we see a divergence of up to 360 m. As DFN observations are typically precise to < 100 m, it is apparent that the assumption of a straight line is an oversimplification that will affect orbit calculations and meteorite search regions for a significant fraction of events.

Mass accumulation of earth from interplanetary dust, meteoroids, asteroids and comets

Using new data and recent models this paper derives a total combined flux model of the mass reaching Earth as interplanetary material. For the small sizes the interplanetary flux model by Grün et al. (1985) was used which describes the mass flux at 1AU for meteoroids in the mass range 10–21kg to about 10−1kg. For the large objects the flux models by Brown et al. (2002) were used which were derived for bodies greater than 1m and are based on sensor data of fireballs that entered the Earth atmosphere. For the intermediate size range interpolations and alternative models based on meteor and fireball data were used. All flux models were converted to an altitude of 100km above the Earth surface to make them comparable. The total combined flux model covers more than 34 orders of magnitude in mass. Using recent measurements and alternative flux models the uncertainties of the obtained model were estimated. Recent measurements include in-situ impact data on retrieved space hardware and optical meteor and fireball data. Depending on the models and interpolation used the interplanetary material that enters the Earth atmosphere per day is in the range of 30−180t with a best guess value of 54t per day for an upper cut-off size of 1km. If the upper size limit is placed at 0.5m which is the largest size where statistically a daily impact is expected, the expected mass influx is slightly more than 32t per day. The combined models with interpolations suggest deviations from a simple power law. The flux in the diameter range of 0.01–0.1m appears not as large as suggested by a simple power law interpolation.

FILTERING METEOROID FLIGHTS USING MULTIPLE UNSCENTED KALMAN FILTERS

ABSTRACT Estimator algorithms are immensely versatile and powerful tools that can be applied to any problem where a dynamic system can be modeled by a set of equations and where observations are available. A well designed estimator enables system states to be optimally predicted and errors to be rigorously quantified. Unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) and interactive multiple models can be found in methods from satellite tracking to self-driving cars. The luminous trajectory of the Bunburra Rockhole fireball was observed by the Desert Fireball Network in mid-2007. The recorded data set is used in this paper to examine the application of these two techniques as a viable approach to characterizing fireball dynamics. The nonlinear, single-body system of equations, used to model meteoroid entry through the atmosphere, is challenged by gross fragmentation events that may occur. The incorporation of the UKF within an interactive multiple model smoother provides a likely solution for when fragmentation events may occur as well as providing a statistical analysis of the state uncertainties. In addition to these benefits, another advantage of this approach is its automatability for use within an image processing pipeline to facilitate large fireball data analyses and meteorite recoveries.

The instrumentally recorded fall of the Križevci meteorite, Croatia, February 4, 2011

AbstractThe Križevci H6 meteorite was recovered on the basis of fireball data obtained by the cameras of the Croatian Meteor Network. The fireball, which occurred on February 4, 2011, 23:20:40 UT, was also observed by meteor cameras in Slovenia and by the Autonomous Fireball Observatory in Martinsberg, Austria, which belongs to the European Fireball Network. Here, we present detailed data on fireball trajectory, velocity, deceleration, light curve, and orbit. We also modeled the atmospheric fragmentation of the meteoroid on the basis of the light curve and deceleration. The initial mass of the meteoroid was between 25–100 kg, most probably about 50 kg. Severe fragmentation occurred at heights of approximately 60 and 31 km, under dynamic pressures of 0.1 and 3 MPa, respectively. The peak absolute magnitude of −13.7 was reached during the second severe fragmentation event. The recovered 291 g meteorite was probably the only fragment with a terminal mass exceeding 100 g. The orbit had a low inclination of 0.6 degrees, perihelion distance 0.74 AU, and semimajor axis 1.54 AU. Križevci can be ranked among the 10 best documented meteorite falls.

Stones from Mohave County, Arizona: Multiple falls in the “Franconia strewn field”

AbstractOne of the most productive and well‐sampled dense collection areas for meteorites on Earth is the “Franconia strewn field” in Mohave County, Arizona, which since 2002 has yielded hundreds of meteorites in an ellipsoidal area approximately 5 × 16 km across. Based on petrographic, mineral‐chemical, and terrestrial age data, we conclude that among 14 meteorites examined, there are at least 6 and possibly 8 distinct meteorites represented, which fell over a period of approximately 0–20 kyr ago. These include equilibrated H‐chondrites such as Franconia (H5) and Buck Mountains (BM) 001 (H6); H3–6 breccias such as Buck Mountains Wash and BM 004; and L6 chondrites such as BM 002 and BM 003 (which may be paired), Palo Verde Mine, and BM 005. To confidently pair such meteorites often requires thorough petrographic examination, mineral‐chemical analyses, and terrestrial ages. We estimate that 50 ± 10% of the larger specimens in this area are paired, yielding a relatively high value of approximately 2.3–2.9 distinct meteorites km−2. The meteorite flux estimated for Franconia area is higher than the flux inferred from contemporary fireball data for larger masses. We suggest that one large H3–6 meteoroid fell in the area, most likely that of Buck Mountains Wash approximately 4 kyr ago, which produced an elliptical strewn field with masses generally increasing toward one end, and which raised the meteorite productivity in the recovery area.

An Analysis of the Content of Large Bodies in Meteor and Fireball Streams

The issue of the presence of meter- and decameter-sized bodies in meteor and fireball streams is of fundamental importance in the context of the theory of disintegration of parent bodies. Our observations, which have been carried out since 1995, indicate that such bodies are present in the Perseid, α-Capricornid, Leonid, and Coma-Berenicid meteoric streams. A catalogue is presented here for the parameters of the detected bodies. The spatial density of the meter-sized bodies is estimated based on the observational material. Within the errors, our estimates agree with the estimates based on the extrapolation of meteor and fireball data. An analysis of the observations suggests some inferences on the structure of the streams under study.

A New Analysis of Fireball Data from the Meteorite Observation and Recovery Project (MORP)

Sixty fireball cameras operated in Western Canada from 1971 to 1985. Over one thousand (1016) fireballs were recorded at more than one station, but only 367 were reduced, of which 285 have been published, including that of the Innisfree meteorite. Digitization of all the data is underway, and procedures are being developed which will allow the automatic reduction of events not previously examined. The results of the analysis of 80 fireballs reduced but not previously published are presented. When the new analysis is complete, the MORP archive will be a valuable source of information on meteoroid orbits.

Orbital and temporal distributions of meteorites originating in the asteroid belt

Abstract— The recent discovery of the importance of Sun‐grazing phenomena dramatically changed our understanding of the dynamics of objects emerging from the asteroid belt via resonant phenomena. The typical lifetimes of such objects are now expected to be &lt;10 Ma, thus demanding a reassessment of our general picture of the meteorite delivery process. By analysing direct numerical integrations of ∼2000 test particles beginning in the v6, 3:1, and 5:2 resonances in the main belt, we have reexamined the orbital and temporal distribution of meteoroids that journey to Earth. Comparing the results with fireball data, we find that the orbital distribution of Earth‐impacting chondrites is consistent with a steady‐state injection of meteoroids into the 3:1 and v6, resonances. Because this is the most complete and unbiased data set concerning Earth‐impacting meteoroids, the agreement leads us to believe that our model is accurate. The simulations predict a P.M. fall ratio for chondrites ∼14% lower than the observed value of ∼68%, which argues for a moderate bias being present in this statistic. Most interestingly, the typical meteorite transfer times predicted by our models are several factors lower than the typical chondrite exposure ages, which implies that these meteorites acquired most of their exposure in the main belt before entering the resonances. We discuss some processes that would allow such preexposure. The case of achondrites and iron meteorites is also briefly discussed.

What's coming down? New Canadian fireball data

Meteoritics & Planetary ScienceVolume 31, Issue 2 p. 165-166 What's coming down? New Canadian fireball data George W. Wetherill, George W. Wetherill Associate EditorSearch for more papers by this author George W. Wetherill, George W. Wetherill Associate EditorSearch for more papers by this author First published: March 1996 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1945-5100.1996.tb02009.xCitations: 1AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article.Citing Literature Volume31, Issue2March 1996Pages 165-166 RelatedInformation

The Fireball Data Center of IMO

The work, aims, and organization of the Fireball Data Center of the International Meteor Organization are presented. First results of calculations of fireball radiants, annual variation, and the population index of fireballs are shown.

37Ar and 39Ar in meteorites and the spatial cosmic ray gradient

Cosmic-ray-produced 37 Ar ( t 1/2 = 35 days), and 39 Ar ( t 1/2 = 269 years) in the Fe-Ni phase of meteorites have been studied in connection with their implications for the radial gradient of cosmic ray particles. For the chondrite, Can˜on City, which fell on October 27, 1973, we found 20.1 ± 1.5dpm/kg FeNi of 37 Ar and 22.5 ± 1.4dpm/kg FeNi of 39 Ar. Usually, the 37 Ar/ 39 Ar ratio is used to deduce a spatial gradient. However, 37 Ar data reported in the literature are inconsistent. They fluctuate much more than could be accounted for by different orbits and the anticipated correlation with the cosmic ray neutron registrations is rather weak. Consequently, the 37 Ar/ 39 Ar-derived gradient has a low confidence level. On the other hand, 39 Ar activities group close to a mean value of 22.5 dpm/kg FeNi and appear to be almost independent of the different meteoroid orbits. A comparison of measured 39 Ar activities in meteorites with those calculated for orbits obtained from fireball data shows that a gradient of 10%/Au or less is reconcilable with the experimental findings. The average gradient ( E > 200MeV) during the last 500 years was probably not much larger than that measured presently by the Pioneer 10 and 11, and Helios spacecrafts.

Fireball end heights: A diagnostic for the structure of meteoric material

An earlier analysis of Prairie Network fireball trajectory data by the authors failed to discriminate between the varieties of meteoric materials that are thought to be present. The Lost City meteorite event offers a new calibration of the fireball data and prompts a new analysis intended to distinguish between ordinary chondritic meteorites and the more fragile early type carbonaceous chondrites. The carbonaceous material is expected to ablate more readily and thus to have shorter trajectories or higher end heights. Observational error and the natural dispersion in the structures produce severe smoothing effects, and the end height diagnostic is, in itself, not entirely convincing. However, after making a tentative division of the data, one can discern differences in orbits and beginning heights among the three end height groups. These are consistent with our expectation of the behavior of chondritic stones (group I), weak carbonaceous chondrites (group II), and still more fragile cometary material (group III). We conclude that if the carbonaceous material occurs in reasonable abundance among the fireballs, it has been properly identified by this analysis.