Fire Risk Mitigation Research Articles

Insights into the Effects of Cognitive Factors and Risk Attitudes on Fire Risk Mitigation Behavior

Insights into fire risk mitigation behavior are crucial for developing a public-private integrated fire-resistant management strategy that motivates contribution from households to fire risk reduction. This research focus on the effects of both cognitive factors and risk attitudes on fire mitigation behavior. Two cognitive factors are considered: threat appraisal and coping appraisal in the Protection Motivation Theory framework. In particular, the independent influence of the six components of threat appraisal (perceived probability, perceived severity, and fear emotions) and coping appraisal (response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost) on fire risk mitigation behavior are examined. Three different types of fire risk mitigation behavior: maintenance and cautions, structural building measures, and fire insurance policy are considered. This study presents the data of a field survey among three ancient Chinese complexes. Results indicate that coping appraisal and risk attitudes are important variables in terms of risk mitigation behavior. In particular, response efficacy and risk attitudes significantly contribute to the models that explain fire risk mitigation behavior. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures should be focused on risk communication, and risk attitudes should be emphasized in estimating fire insurance demand.

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.

A model of shrub biomass accumulation as a tool to support management of Portuguese forests

Abstract: The evaluation of forest fuel loading is required by most fire management activities. However, the consideration of shrub biomass for forest planning purposes has been limited by the inability to predict its growth and accumulation. The main objective of this study was to model shrub biomass over time under a tree canopy to be able to include shrub management in fire risk mitigation plans. Data for this purpose was obtained from the 4th and 5th Portuguese National Forest Inventories. Five biologically realistic models were built to describe shrub biomass accumulation in Portuguese forests. The selected model indicates that maximum biomass is affected by stand basal area and the percentage of resprouting shrub species in the stand. Biomass growth rate was clearly affected by the regeneration strategies of shrubs in combination with climatic conditions (mean annual temperature). The model can be used in the accumulation form for initialization purposes or in one of the two alternative difference forms to project observed shrub biomass. The acquired ability to estimate shrub biomass facilitates its inclusion in forest growth models and simulators and will contribute to more accurate estimates of fire behaviour characteristics and stored carbon. This is instrumental to improve decision-making in forest management plans that integrate fire risk, namely to schedule understory fuel treatments.

PV electrical plants fire risk assessment and mitigation according to the Italian national fire services guidelines

SummaryPhotovoltaic (PV) systems design and construction are generally focused on efficiency and reliability, in order to increase the amount of solar energy that can be converted into electrical energy. Therefore, in a PV electrical generation plant, fire risk is not taken into account by technical designers and, furthermore, is not considered by constructors of PV plant installation. This paper shows a procedure to assess and mitigate the fire risk as a result of a PV plant installation located over buildings, according to the Italian National Fire Services Guidelines. Firstly, an introduction to the main faulty modes of PV arrays and modules is reported in order to highlight how the pre‐existing level of fire risk is increased for a building or construction work where a PV electrical generation plant is installed. Hence, the paper explains how the guidelines point out fire risk assessment steps oriented to PV plant installation over buildings. In addition, the guidelines contain some useful fire risk mitigation technical solutions. The guidelines have been developed with safety as their main objective. The PV sector has been presented with certain limitations in roof or façade installations as a result of PV fire ignition characteristics and firefighting suppression techniques. The aim of the guidelines is to provide the solar PV industry with information and technical arrangements to aid the design, construction and installation of solar PV systems meeting the objectives of both solar PV industry and fire safety requirements. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Utility engagement with payments for watershed services in the United States

This research demonstrates the growing use of payments for watershed services (PWS) by drinking water, wastewater, and electric utilities in the USA to meet a variety of objectives and considers the potential these widespread and long established institutions hold in driving PWS implementation and mainstreaming ecosystem services approaches. We developed a working typology highlighting similarities and differences among 37 identified programs covering source water protection, fire risk mitigation, point source pollution offsets, voluntary customer offsets, and hydropower mitigation. We identified six distinct mechanisms for funding the identified programs. Sales taxes and bond measures generated the most annual funding per capita while voluntary ratepayer contributions and donated water conservation savings generated the least. A variety of actors were involved in the implementation of these different programs. Notably, nonprofit organizations were critical to each program type and often acted as important intermediaries, facilitating transactions among utilities and landowners. We found these initiatives face multiple challenges including the difficulty of demonstrating the business case for investments in ecosystem services and changes in the regulatory environment that can decrease ecosystem service demand and limit flexibility in pursuing PWS approaches.

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

AbstractUnderstanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in NortheastChina, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area and time period) under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed human‐caused fires were strongly related to human activities (e.g. landscape accessibility), including proximity to settlements and roads. In contrast, fuel moisture and vegetation type were the most important controlling factors on the spatial pattern of lightning fires. Both current and future projected spatial distributions of the overall (human‐ + lightning‐caused) fire occurrence density were strongly clustered along linear components of human infrastructure. Our results demonstrated that the predicted change in overall fire occurrence density is positively related to the degree of temperature and precipitation change, although the spatial pattern of change is expected to vary spatially according to proximity to human ignition sources, and in a manner inconsistent with predicted climate change. Compared to the current overall fire occurrence density (median value: 0.36 fires per 1000 km2per year), the overall fire occurrence density is projected to increase by 30% under theCGCM3B1 scenario and by 230% under HadCM3A2 scenario in 2081–2100, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change effects may not outweigh the effects of human influence on overall fire occurrence over the next century in this cultural landscape. Accurate forecasts of future fire‐climate relationships should account for anthropogenic influences on fire ignition density, such as roads and proximity to settlements.

Reducing Hazardous Fuels on Nonindustrial Private Forests: Factors Influencing Landowner Decisions

Abstract In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners' decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore important. This research uses logistic regression to analyze mail survey data and identify factors in forest owners' decisions to reduce hazardous fuels in the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystem on the east side of Oregon. Results suggest that owners who live on or near their land and are aware of wider landscape conditions may be important partners in fire risk mitigation and forest restoration. Results also suggest that incentives, including markets for wood products (e.g., logs and biomass) that come from fuels reduction treatments, are important for harnessing owners' potential to mitigate fire risk.

Evaluation of two risk mitigation strategies for dealing with fire-related uncertainty in timber supply modelling

We embedded a linear programming timber harvest scheduling model into an aspatial stochastic simulation model of a flammable forest to evaluate two fire risk mitigation strategies. The harvest scheduling model is solved repeatedly to produce harvest schedules within a rolling planning horizon framework. The risk mitigation strategies we examined were (1) whether or not to account for fire in the planning model and (2) replanning interval. We evaluated those strategies under four representative fire regimes. We found that accounting for fire in the planning model reduced the harvest volume variability as fire activity increased (i.e., for average annual burn fractions ≥0.45%), but replanning intervals over a range of 1 to 10 years had little impact on harvest volume variability. We also developed a risk analysis decision-making aid that forest managers can use to help deal with fire-related uncertainty. Our results suggest that risk-averse forest managers should account for fire while planning, especially when burn fractions exceed 0.45%.

Willingness-to-pay for prescribed fire in the Colorado (USA) wildland urban interface

During the summer of 2001, survey data were collected from Colorado residents living near public lands (i.e., the wildland urban interface). Data were collected by telephone after mailing respondents a survey. These data include detailed information of respondents' views towards wildfire management and willingness-to-pay (WTP) values for prescribed burning. Results indicate that Colorado residents living near public lands are aware that fire is a natural process in their area and are in favor of using prescribed burning for fire risk reduction. They also are willing-to-pay an annual tax for prescribed fire undertaken on the public lands near their homes. Respondents' support for adopting a fire risk mitigation policy based on prescribed fire depended on perceived fire frequency intervals. The substantial WTP values for prescribed burning indicate that the public living in the wildland urban interface could potentially pay an annual tax, so the burden of wildfire management need no longer predominantly lie in the hands of the general taxpayers.

Modelling Transboundary Air Pollution in Southeast Asia: Policy Regime and the Role of Stakeholders

Transboundary air pollution, popularly known as the ‘haze’, is a recent but significant environmental crisis in Southeast Asia, and is primarily the result of Indonesian forest fires. We identify that the fundamental motivation behind the practice of clearing forestland with fire by the polluters is economic in nature. We then argue that the major victims of the forest fires and haze are likely to play a vital role in the solution of the problem, at least by motivating the polluters, even if they cannot force them not to pollute. Thus, the polluters and victims can be regarded as the ‘stakeholders’ who would take interest and participate actively in the policy regime. A regional model is developed to analyze and specifically to take account of the states responsible for and affected by the haze. The problems of the affected resident population, the forest industries, and the role of the regional governments are modeled. The model also highlights the importance of key variables in determining the severity of the haze, namely the magnitude of the investment in fire fighting, risk mitigation, and scale of fire operations; including forecasting weather conditions. We argue that optimal policy options should simultaneously satisfy the economic needs of the key stakeholders to be effective.

Evaluation of a new satellite-based method for forest fire detection

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-based fire detection methods are considered in this work in order to assess their effective usefulness in the framework of civil programmes for fire risk and damage mitigation. The discussion is divided into the evaluation of the most commonly used methods and the description of a new fire detection procedure which is proposed in this paper. Commonly used detection methods are based on using absolute threshold values for decision tests. These values usually match only with very local, uniform (in space and time) situations, and are often inadequate when applied to heterogeneous, or simply different, geographical areas or seasons. A high number of false alarms, so high as to make the satellite-based product not operationally utilizable, is the main disadvantage of the fixed-threshold approach. The new fire-detection procedure proposed here makes use only of historical AVHRR data in order to automatically produce local (in space and time) threshold values, suitable for fire-event detection also in very critical situations. High fire discrimination capabilities with low false-alarm rates, simple unsupervised implementation and, above all, flexibility for automatic extension to completely different geographic areas and observation conditions, are the main advantages associated with this new technique. Results obtained for different Italian areas have been successfully compared with ground observations made by the Italian Forestry Service. Tests made over a long observation period show that, on cloud-free regions, more than 75% of significant forest fires are detected with less than 20% of false alarms.