Fire Climate Research Articles

Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings

AbstractUnderstanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistence and spread, and because the conditions allowing seedlings to survive and grow are often more restrictive than those adults can tolerate. However, detailed long‐term data on the responses of individual seedlings to climatic variation are rare. Here, we analyze a decade of seedling growth and survival data collected in 25 long‐term plots located in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks. The forest types represented range from lower‐elevation mixed conifer, to red fir‐dominated, to high‐elevation western white pine stands. Twelve species, including two oaks and ten conifers, are found across these plots. Survival and transition to larger size classes are modeled within a Bayesian framework as a function of species, size, fire, and various climate variables. We initially expected that precipitation‐related variables would have a strong effect on seedling survival and growth in this Mediterranean‐climate region and that some species might respond positively to higher temperatures if they are adapted to warmer low‐elevation areas or to higher‐than‐average temperatures if they are high‐elevation species whose growing seasons are limited by cold. However, we found that higher July maximum temperature or temperature anomalies were associated with lower survival and growth for most species, while precipitation and snow effects were weaker and more variable. Higher precipitation had a positive effect on survival of most species, but snow effects and precipitation effects on growth could be negative. Given the estimated climate responses, under potential future scenarios of higher summer temperatures and altered precipitation, most species are predicted to have lower survival and reduced growth. This is likely to favor species that have relatively high survival and growth and less negative responses to climatic shift (such as several of the pines) and perhaps lead to a more open forest structure—or potentially transition to non‐forest vegetation types where seedling recruitment does not keep pace with adult mortality.

Correcting Swath-Dependent Bias of MODIS FRP Observations With Quantile Mapping

Active fire observations with satellite instruments exhibit a well-documented increase of the detection threshold with increasing pixel footprint size, i.e., distance from the sub-satellite point. This results in a viewing angle-dependent, negative bias in gridded representations of the observed Fire Radiative Power (FRP), which in turn is frequently being used for climate monitoring of biomass burning and for pyrogenic emission inventories. We present a method based on quantile mapping to alleviate this bias and apply it to the gridded-FRP from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instruments. The gridded-FRP observations are corrected with a correction function that depends on the satellite viewing angle and the magnitude of FRP in each grid cell. Assuming the fire observations at nadir to be the best representation of the truth, we derive a correction function by mapping cumulative distribution function (CDF) of off-nadir gridded-FRP to the CDF of near-nadir gridded-FRP. The method can be directly applied to correct the negative bias in gridded-FRP observations at a grid resolution of 1 ∘ or more. The performance of the correction methodology is confirmed through comparisons with co-located Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite observations: After bias correction, the gridded-FRP observations from both satellites agree better than before, particularly over savanna, tropical forests, and extra-tropical forests. Experiments with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) show that the impacts of the bias-corrected MODIS/Aqua gridded-FRP observations and VIIRS/Suomi-NPP gridded-FRP observations on regional FRP analyses are comparable, which confirms the potential for improving fire emission inventories and climate monitoring based on FRP.

Regional variation in interior Alaskan boreal forests is driven by fire disturbance, topography, and climate

AbstractHigh latitude regions are warming rapidly with important ecological and societal consequences. Utilizing two landscape‐scale data sets from interior Alaska, we compared patterns in forest structure in two regions with differing fire disturbance, topography, and summer climate norms. Our goal was to evaluate a set of hypotheses concerning possible warming‐driven changes in forest structure suggested by recent literature. We found essentially consistent habitat associations for the tree flora across two disparate study areas concomitant with considerable differences in observed patterns of forest structure and composition. Our results confirmed expected increases in broadleaved species occupancy and abundance in the warmer, more fire‐affected study region along with considerably higher tree occupancy and abundance in high elevation areas there. However, contrary to our predictions, we found no evidence of expected reductions in conifer occupancy or increases in non‐fire related tree mortality. Instead, both individual and combined tree species occupancy, density, abundance, and richness were considerably higher in the warmer, more fire‐influenced region, except in the warmest, driest areas (steep and south‐facing slopes at low elevation). Our comparison of two landscape‐scale data sets suggests that changes in tree distribution and forest structure in interior Alaska will proceed unevenly, governed by a mosaic of site‐dependent influences wherein forest community composition and species dominance will shift along different trajectories and at different rates according to variation in underlying landscape attributes. Although there were clear differences in forest structure between the two areas that were likely attributable to differences in growing season warmth and fire disturbance, we found scant support for the concept of an incipient, ongoing biome shift in interior Alaska resulting from impending diminution of boreal forest cover over the short to medium term. Indeed, we suggest that (depending on severity of disturbance dynamics and the rapidity of future warming) cooler areas of interior Alaska's forest may reasonably be expected to sustain marginal increases in forest cover with additional warming, at least in certain topographic positions (such as poorly drained basins and cool treeline sites) and/or geographic regions, prior to any landscape‐scale diminution of forest cover due to warming.

Holocene savanna dynamics in the seasonal tropics of northern Australia

An environmental history is presented from Girraween Lagoon, Darwin region of the Northern Territory, Australia. Pollen and charcoal analysis of a 5-meter sediment core provides a record of vegetation change, fire history and climate spanning 12,700 cal BP to the present day. This study focusses on tree-grass vegetation dynamics, eucalypt to non-eucalypt plant interactions, and climate–fire–human relationships in an area where few long-term savanna records exist. The dataset suggests wetlands experienced alternating episodes of ephemeral waterlogging and seasonal inundation due to post-glacial monsoon variability up until permanent inundation from approximately 6000 cal BP. The surrounding catchment transformed from a terminal Pleistocene–early Holocene wooded-savanna to a later Holocene open forest. This increase in woody cover was a prominent site feature, primarily driven by climate–moisture availability. In turn, the extent of fire and fire impact, is a function of climate–vegetation feedbacks. Such interplay between fire history, climate change and vegetation pattern was also influenced by more intense human management of the area, in the last 4000 years of the record. It is proposed Girraween may have become a much-socialized and managed human landscape in this late Holocene phase. Results provide essential baseline data describing savanna dynamics linked to contemporary ecological observation, understanding and management goals, and serves as an important resource for the Quaternary sciences and archeology of northern Australia.

Development and validation of the fire service safety climate scale

PurposeUnderstanding the climate of safety is a core initiative of the US fire service in its quest to reduce injuries, fatalities, and toxic exposures linked to occupational disease. The purpose of this study was to develop a fire service safety climate scale to support this goal. MethodSurvey development followed an exploratory sequential mixed methods design combining qualitative methods (interviews and focus groups with 123 firefighters to generate items), and quantitative methods (exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses; multi-level models) to examine the survey’s psychometric properties in a geographically-stratified random sample of 130 fire departments including 615 stations and 8575 firefighters. ResultsBased on the EFA results, a 14-item multi-level measure of fire service safety climate containing two factors—management commitment (fire department-level) and supervisor support (fire station-level)—was developed. Results of multi-level CFAs indicated acceptable fit of the measurement model, supporting construct validity. Multi-level path analyses showed that fire service safety climate scores were significantly related to safety-related outcomes such as injury rates and safety compliance along with well-being focused outcomes such as job satisfaction, burnout, and employee engagement, supporting criterion-related validity. DiscussionA reliable and valid fire service safety climate scale was developed. The scale’s dimensions of management commitment within fire department and supervisor support within stations are embedded in a larger instrument, the Fire service Organizational Culture of Safety survey (FOCUS). This simple tool allows fire departments to assess shared perceptions of safety policies and practices and the impact of such perceptions on safety and organizational outcomes.

Trends in Vegetation fires in South and Southeast Asian Countries

We assessed the fire trends from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2003–2016) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) (2012–2016) in South/Southeast Asia (S/SEA) at a country level and vegetation types. We also quantified the fire frequencies, anomalies and climate drivers. MODIS data suggested India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Myanmar as having the most fires. Also, the VIIRS-detected fires were higher than MODIS (AQUA and TERRA) by a factor of 7 and 5 in S/SEA. Thirty percent of S/SEA had recurrent fires with the most in Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar. Statistically-significant increasing fire trends were found for India (p = 0.004), Cambodia (p = 0.001), and Vietnam (p = 0.050) whereas Timor Leste (p = 0.004) had a decreasing trend. An increasing trend in fire radiative power (FRP) were found for Cambodia (p = 0.005), India (0.039), and Pakistan (0.06) and declining trend in Afghanistan (0.041). Fire trends from VIIRS were not significant due to limited duration of data. In S/SEA, fires in croplands were equally frequent as in forests, with increasing fires in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Specific to climate drivers, precipitation could explain more variations in fires than the temperature with stronger correlations in Southeast Asia than South Asia. Our results on fire statistics including spatial geography, variations, frequencies, anomalies, trends, and climate drivers can be useful for fire management in S/SEA countries.

Postfire population dynamics of a fire-dependent cypress

Tecate cypress (Hesperocyparis forbesii) is a rare species restricted to four metapopulations in southern California, USA and a few isolated populations in northern Baja California, Mexico. It is a closed-cone, fire-dependent tree of conservation concern due to an increase in human-caused wildfires that have shortened the interval between fires in many of their populations. In 2003, the Mine/Otay Fire burned 70% of the Tecate cypress on Otay Mountain in San Diego County, California providing an opportunity to evaluate the immaturity risk of this species and to examine its recruitment, survivorship, and reproductive maturity over a 14-year period from 2004 to 2017. Sixteen sites were established in burned stands of Tecate cypress with prefire ages that ranged from 7 to 53 years old. After 14 years, the overall density of Tecate cypress was still higher than before the fire, however, the areal extent of the species decreased due to the loss of locations where either there was low cone production or fire intensity was too high. The immaturity risk for this species, while a function of prefire stand age, is confounded by other factors including the reproductive capacities of trees based on their density and size and the climatic variables affecting their growth over time. The future management of Tecate cypress and other fire-dependent species requires a knowledge of all factors impacting their immaturity risk, as well as an understanding of the potential fire–climate interactions that may impact their persistence in a future of climate change and altered fire regimes.

A Comparison of Burned Area Time Series in the Alaskan Boreal Forests from Different Remote Sensing Products

Alaska’s boreal region stores large amounts of carbon both in its woodlands and in the grounds that sustain them. Any alteration to the fire system that has naturally regulated the region’s ecology for centuries poses a concern regarding global climate change. Satellite-based remote sensors are key to analyzing those spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. This paper compiles four burned area (BA) time series based on remote sensing imagery for the Alaska region between 1982–2015: Burned Areas Boundaries Dataset-Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (BABD-MTBS) derived from Landsat sensors, Fire Climate Change Initiative (Fire_CCI) (2001–2015) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area Product (MCD64A1) (2000–2015) with MODIS data, and Burned Area-Long-Term Data Record (BA-LTDR) using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer LTDR (AVHRR-LTDR) dataset. All products were analyzed and compared against one another, and their accuracy was assessed through reference data obtained by the Alaskan Fire Service (AFS). The BABD-MTBS product, with the highest spatial resolution (30 m), shows the best overall estimation of BA (81%), however, for the years before 2000 (pre-MODIS era), the BA sensed by this product was only 44.3%, against the 55.5% obtained by the BA-LTDR product with a lower spatial resolution (5 km). In contrast, for the MODIS era (after 2000), BABD-MTBS virtually matches the reference data (98.5%), while the other three time series showed similar results of around 60%. Based on the theoretical limits of their corresponding Pareto boundaries, the lower resolution BA products could be improved, although those based on MODIS data are currently limited by the algorithm’s reliance on the active fire MODIS product, with a 1 km nominal spatial resolution. The large inter-annual variation found in the commission and omission errors in this study suggests that for a fair assessment of the accuracy of any BA product, all available reference data for space and time should be considered and should not be carried out by selective sampling.

Climatic influence on fire regime (1700 to 2008) in the Nazas watershed, Durango, Mexico

BackgroundFire scars are the primary source of physical evidence used to date past fires around the world, and to estimate parameters of historical fire regimes and fire-climate relationships. Despite an increase in studies about historical fire regimes and the relationship between fire and climate, these studies are still limited for Mexican forests. Our goal was to characterize the historical fire regime in two sites with different elevations, to assess changes in fire frequency, and to determine the relationship between fire regimes and climate patterns in a conifer-dominated forest in the Upper Nazas watershed of the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico. We were able to cross-date 50 fire-scarred samples of Pinus arizonica Engelm., P. strobiformis Engelm., P. teocote Schlecht. & Cham., P. durangensis Martínez, and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco and identify a total of 596 fire scars.ResultsEvidences are compelling evidences on forest fires occurred frequently in the study area, starting in the mid eighteenth century and through the mid twentieth century. The season of fire occurrence was determined for 560 (94%) fire scars. Most fire scars at both of our sampling locations, found at low and high elevation sites, occurred in the spring (525, 93.8%) and only 6.2% occurred in the summer. The mean fire interval and Weibull median fire interval values were < 10 years for all fire-scar filter (all samples, ≥10% and ≥ 25%), and the average per-sample fire interval was < 25 years.ConclusionsOur results suggest fire frequency has changed over time at our study site, becoming less common and less extensive since the 1950s. In addition, extensive fires occurred in dry years as indicated by low precipitation, negative NIÑO 3 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values, and negative Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values. Fire frequencies must be maintained within the amplitude of their historical regime, with the objective of reducing the risk of severe fires and preserving ecological and hydrological benefits in the watershed.

Consequences of climatic thresholds for projecting fire activity and ecological change

AbstractAimEcological properties governed by threshold relationships can exhibit heightened sensitivity to climate, creating an inherent source of uncertainty when anticipating future change. We investigated the impact of threshold relationships on our ability to project ecological change outside the observational record (e.g., the 21st century), using the challenge of predicting late‐Holocene fire regimes in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems. Location Boreal forest and tundra ecosystems of Alaska. Time period 850–2100 CE. Major taxa studied Not applicable.MethodsWe informed a set of published statistical models, designed to predict the 30‐year probability of fire occurrence based on climatological normals, with downscaled global climate model data for 850–1850 CE. To evaluate model performance outside the observational record and the implications of threshold relationships, we compared modelled estimates with mean fire return intervals estimated from 29 published lake‐sediment palaeofire reconstructions. To place our results in the context of future change, we evaluate changes in the location of threshold to burning under 21st‐century climate projections.ResultsModel–palaeodata comparisons highlight spatially varying accuracy across boreal forest and tundra regions, with variability strongly related to the summer temperature threshold to burning: sites closer to this threshold exhibited larger prediction errors than sites further away from this threshold. Modifying the modern (i.e., 1950–2009) fire–climate relationship also resulted in significant changes in modelled estimates. Under 21st‐century climate projections, increasing proportions of Alaskan tundra and boreal forest will approach and surpass the temperature threshold to burning, with &gt; 50% exceeding this threshold by &gt; 2 °C by 2070–2099. Main conclusions Our results highlight a high sensitivity of statistical projections to changing threshold relationships and data uncertainty, implying that projections of future ecosystem change in threshold‐governed ecosystems will be accompanied by notable uncertainty. This work also suggests that ecological responses to climate change will exhibit high spatio‐temporal variability as different regions approach and surpass climatic thresholds over the 21st century.

Organic tracers from biomass burning in snow from the coast to the ice sheet summit of East Antarctica

Biomass burning is a significant process in the Earth system, driving ecosystem dynamics and changes in global vegetation, and affecting the carbon cycle and climate. Projections of future fire activities require an understanding of the connection between fire history and climate in the past. Polar snow/ice contain long-term records of past climates and fire activity and hold great promise to improve our understanding of wildfire patterns. Here, using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry techniques, we quantified three organic compounds (levoglucosan, vanillic, and syringic acids) released by biomass burning in snow samples collected along a 1250-km transect from the coast to the ice sheet summit Dome A in East Antarctica. Results indicate that these tracers are ubiquitous and have reached the ice sheet summit from the continental emissions in the Southern Hemisphere. These compounds showed high levels close to the coastal areas and decreased to a low level on the Antarctic plateau. The snow samples had similar levoglucosan/vanillic acid (∼45) and levoglucosan/syringic acid ratios (∼243) as aerosols from biomass burning. Multivariate analysis indicates that these compounds were likely derived from the burning of grasses and evergreen broadleaf trees that are widespread in Southern Hemisphere than from evergreen conifers that dominate northern hemisphere fire-prone ecosystems. Snow accumulation rate influenced the levels of these compounds, while coexisting ions had little effect on compound contents in the snow. The low concentrations of levoglucosan at inland sites (mean of 2.7 pg mL−1; versus 3.5 and 3.7 pg mL−1 in coastal and transition zones, respectively) could be associated with the oxidation by OH radicals under sunlight. Our analysis demonstrated that the ubiquity of multiple biomarkers from biomass burning in East Antarctic surface snow can provide baseline concentrations for future studies in Antarctica.

The sensitivity of fire activity to interannual climate variability in Victoria, Australia

Climate change is expected to have an impact on fire activity in many regions around the globe.The extent of this can only be determined by first establishing the relationship between climate and fire activity. This study relates observed changes in fire activity in Victoria to observed changes in antecedent and concurrent climate parameters – maximum temperature, rainfall and vapour pressure, using data for 1972–2014. A first-difference approach was adopted to estimate the amount by which the observed changes in the climate parameters would have altered the fire activity in the absence of other confounding effects. This study provides a method for examining the sensitivity of fire activity to changes in climate parameters without the need to consider the complex response of fuel dynamics to future climates and changes in fire regime or fire management. We used stepwise multiple-regression to determine the months whose climate parameters explained much of the variance in the total number of fires (TNF) and area burned in a fire season. The best performing fire–climate models explained almost two-thirds of the variation in year-to-year variability of fire activity. The significant explanatory ability of the fire–climate models established in this study reveals the combination of climate parameters that closely relates to the observed year-to-year changes in fire activity, and this may provide an additional valuable resource for fire management planning. Further, we explored the role changes in climate have had on the trend in fire activity. Natural logarithm of area burned and mean fire size have not significantly increased over the study period, but the TNF has significantly increased. We find that the observed increase in maximum temperatures and decrease in rainfall account for 26% of the observed increase in TNF for the 1972–2014 period. Therefore, most of the upward trend found in fire numbers must be due to factors other than climate (i.e. changes in fire occurrence, reporting/recording, land and fire-management changes). Additionally, this study concludes that total area burned should have also increased significantly due to the observed changes in climate and that improved fire-management practicesmay be offsetting this expected increase in the area burned. Finally, using the relationship established in this study between fire numbers and climate parameters, we estimate that a 2°C increase in mean monthly maximum temperatures could be expected to lead to a 38% increase in fire numbers.

Глубина прогорания торфа и потери углерода при лесном подземном пожаре

Глубина прогорания торфа и потери углерода при лесном подземном пожаре

Legacy effects of afforestation on prairie plant and seed bank communities in a northern Canadian prairie

Afforestation resulting from fire suppression, modified grazing, plantation establishment and climate change poses a threat to northern prairie ecosystems. Trees alter the composition and function of plant and soil fauna communities and can compromise the restoration of afforested prairies. To evaluate the hypothesis that legacies of afforestation persist in restored prairie communities and decrease the potential for restoration, we examined the composition, structure, and diversity of plant and seed bank communities along a 20year chronosequence of plantation tree removal from a northern fescue prairie in Riding Mountain National Park, Manitoba, Canada. Tree removal increased the abundance of weedy species in the plant and seed bank communities of restored prairies and plant diversity peaked and declined over the 20year period of passive restoration. As a result, time since tree removal and the encroachment of invasive species were key in explaining the composition of restored prairie communities. Low correlation between the species composition of plant and seed bank communities, including the complete absence of Festuca hallii in restored treatments, demonstrated that legacies of afforestation compromised the potential of seed banks to facilitate prairie restoration. We conclude that tree removal alone is insufficient for the restoration of northern fescue prairies and that, in the absence of active management, the persistence of low-diversity plant and seed bank communities constitutes an important legacy of afforestation and an important barrier to future restoration.

Fire risk assessment along the climate, vegetation type variability over the part of Asian region: a geospatial approach

In the present study, we evaluated the long term MODIS fire counts with the grid spacing 1° × 1° over the part of continent of Asia. The grid show high percent of fire events was assigned to high risk grid. The study further evaluated three selected 2 × 2 window representing the risk grid. We have analyzed the fire events along various vegetation types as well as country boundary. The climate data set is further analyzed and statistical analysis was performed to understand the relationship with fire events. The first selected 2 × 2 window grid roughly represents over region of Punjab and Haryana state of India show 83% of total fire in the month of October and November due to agricultural residues burning. The result of the analysis of vegetation types with fire events manifest the vegetation types dominated by shifting cultivation which occupies the geographical area of 8% whereas they retain fire percent equivalent of 30% of total fire events. Country based fire events analysis shows that Burma fire events per unit geographical area were found roughly 3.5 times higher when compared with India. The analysis of fire events and climate data from February to July in grids over a part of the Asian region (central part of India) exhibit the 50% fire events was in the month of March with maximum temperature (°C), precipitation (mm) and solar radiation (KJ/m2/day) with range of (26.7–35.9), (6–26) and (22680–24366) respectively. The evaluation of Crammer’s V coefficient (CVC) values of precipitation, mean maximum temperature and solar radiation are found in decreasing order and in the range of 0.77–0.31. The highest CVC value of precipitation (0.77) shows that among all other climatic parameters the precipitation has very strong relationship to fire events. Remote sensing data (fire and climate) when coupled with various analyses in GIS domain reflect better understanding of their relationship which will greatly help in management/planning/ making strategy on fire prevention/control.

Fire regime on a cultural landscape: Navajo Nation.

Fire has played an important role in the evolutionary environment of global ecosystems, and Indigenous peoples have long managed natural resources in these fire‐prone environments. We worked with the Navajo Nation Forestry Department to evaluate the historical role of fire on a 50 km2 landscape bisected by a natural mountain pass. We used fifty 5‐ha circular plots to collect proxy fire history data on fire‐scarred trees, stumps, logs, and snags in a coniferous forest centered on a key mountain pass. The fire history data were categorized into three groups: All (all 50 plots), Corridor (25 plots closest to Buffalo Pass drainage), and Outer (remaining 25 plots, farther from pass). We assessed spatial and temporal patterns of fire recurrence and fire‐climate relationships. The landscape experienced frequent fires from 1644, the earliest fire date with sufficient sample depth, to 1920, after which fire occurrence was interrupted. The mean fire interval (MFI) for fire dates scarring 10% or more of the samples was 6.25 years; there were 13 large‐scale fires identified with the 25% filter with an MFI of 22.6 years. Fire regimes varied over the landscape, with an early reduction in fire occurrence after 1829, likely associated with pastoralism, in the outer uplands away from the pass. In contrast, the pass corridor had continuing fire occurrence until the early 20th century.Synthesis. Fires were synchronized with large‐scale top‐down climatic oscillations (drought and La Niña), but the spatially explicit landscape sampling design allowed us to detect bottom‐up factors of topography, livestock grazing, and human movement patterns that interacted in complex ways to influence the fire regime at fine scales. Since the early 20th century, however, fires have been completely excluded. Fuel accumulation in the absence of fire and warming climate present challenges for future management.

Trade‐offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change

AbstractThe combined effects of climate change and other factors, such as land‐use change or fire disturbance, pose daunting challenges for biodiversity conservation world‐wide.We predicted the future effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000), the current network of protected areas (PA) in Europe, at maintaining and representing suitable environmental conditions for a set of 79 bird species between 2000 and 2050 in a fire‐prone area, strongly affected by land abandonment processes in North East Spain. We then compared PA performance with a set of alternative priority areas for conservation, which consider fire‐vegetation dynamics, selected by using a conservation planning tool (Marxan). Fire‐vegetation dynamics were modelled using a process‐based model (Medfire Model) under alternative fire management and climate change scenarios. Bird communities were predicted using the spatially explicit species assemblage modelling framework (SESAM) and species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire‐vegetation dynamics.The amount of suitable environmental conditions within the N2000 network was predicted to fall by around 15%, on average, over the next decades in relation to the initial conditions but could be partially modulated by fire management policies in future. The efficiency of the current PA system was predicted to decrease from 17.4% to 15% between 2000 and 2050. However, a more efficient PA system could be achieved with a conservation planning approach that explicitly considers fire‐vegetation dynamics and their management.Synthesis and applications. Our findings show: (a) how the current Natura 2000 could still hold an important bird conservation value by 2050; (b) how the relocation of some protected areas should be considered in order to substantially increase bird conservation effectiveness; and (c) how the integration of fire‐vegetation dynamics, fire management policies and their objectives within conservation planning provide “win–win” solutions for bird conservation and fire prevention in fire‐prone abandoned landscapes.

The changing landscape of wildfire: burn pattern trends and implications for California’s yellow pine and mixed conifer forests

Wildfire spatial patterns drive ecological processes including vegetation succession and wildlife community dynamics. Such patterns may be changing due to fire suppression policies and climate change, making characterization of trends in post-fire mosaics important for understanding and managing fire-prone ecosystems. For wildfires in California’s yellow pine and mixed-conifer forests, spatial pattern trends of two components of the post-fire severity matrix were assessed for 1984–2015: (1) unchanged or very low-severity and (2) high-severity, which represent remnant forest and stand-replacing fire, respectively. Trends were evaluated for metrics of total and proportional burned area, shape complexity, aggregation, and core area. Additionally, comparisons were made between management units where fire suppression is commonly practiced and those with a history of managing wildfire for ecological/resource benefits. Unchanged or very low-severity area per fire decreased proportionally through time, and became increasingly fragmented. High-severity area and core area increased on average across most of California, with the high-severity component also becoming simpler in shape in the Sierra Nevada. Compared to suppression units, managed wildfire units lack an increase in high-severity area, have less aggregated post-fire mosaics, and more high-severity spatial complexity. Documented changes in severity patterns have cascading ecological effects including increased vegetation type conversion risk, habitat availability shifts, and remnant forest fragmentation. These changes likely benefit early-seral-associated species at the expense of mature closed-canopy forest-associated species. Managed wildfire appears to moderate some effects of fire suppression, and may help buy time for ecosystems and managers to respond to a changing climate.

Contemporary Pyrogeography and Wildfire-Climate Relationships of South Dakota, USA

A recent wildland fire history and climate database was compiled for South Dakota, USA (SD). Wildfires are generally a warm season phenomenon across central and western SD while eastern SD exhibits a spring peak in annual wildfire activity. It is hypothesized that regional climate and land use are the two primary drivers of the spatiotemporal wildfire distribution across the state. To assess the relative impacts of climate to wildfire activity, Spearman’s rank order correlation coefficients were calculated for monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Modified Index (PMDI) as compared to both monthly area burned and numbers of fire starts data for each of the nine climate divisions in South Dakota. Results show statewide variations in significant correlations but positive temperature anomalies, negative precipitation anomalies, and negative values of the PMDI were most frequently associated with months showing substantial area burned and large numbers of wildfire starts. Time-lagged significant correlations were also seen implying month(s)-ahead predictive capabilities. Positive PMDI values were most significantly correlated to warm season wildfire activity suggesting that the influence of drought on wildfires within SD may be limited to the summer months.

Wave of fire: an anthropogenic signal in historical fire regimes across central Pennsylvania,USA

AbstractIncreasingly detailed records of long‐term fire regime characteristics are needed to test ecological concepts and inform natural resource management and policymaking. We reconstructed and analyzed twelve 350+ yr‐long fire scar records developed from 2612 tree‐ring dated fire scars on 432 living and dead pine (Pinus pungens,Pinus rigida,Pinus resinosa,Pinus echinata) trees from across central Pennsylvania. We used multiple spatial and time series analysis methods to quantify fire regime characteristics (frequency, seasonality, percentages of trees scarred, extent) and fire–climate–human associations. Prior to the 20th‐century fire suppression, fire regimes at the majority of sites consisted of frequent, low‐to‐moderate severity, dormant season fires. Fires were often regionally synchronous when preceded by significantly dry years. Using documentary archives, we provide the first description of a “wave of fire”—an anthropogenic signal in fire frequency that progressively moved across the region. This “wave of fire” reflects a changing progression of anthropogenic fire regimes from Native American occupation and depopulation, to Euro‐American settlement, to industrialization and declining fire use up to the 20th century era of fire suppression. The wave of fire provides a new perspective on historical and modern fire regime dynamics and identifies socio‐ecological impacts since North American colonization. Because the anthropogenic wave of fire exists at sites across North America, we emphasize the need for a broader determination of its geographic prevalence and variability as such determinations could influence historical ecology interpretations and perspectives on past and future roles of humans in managing ecosystems with fire.