Background: Most individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders experience relapses, which increases the risk of morbidity and mortality. Since non-adherence with antipsychotic maintenance treatment may affect up to half of individuals, psychosis relapse can often be confounded by unnoticed treatment interruption. Research of relapse during confirmed antipsychotic exposure has basic clinical and neurobiological implications, yet data are limited. Methods: Systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) of clinical trials of long-acting injectable antipsychotics (LAIs) for psychosis relapse-prevention, following IPD-PRISMA guidelines. Datasets were identified by searching relevant repositories up to August/01/2019. Each LAI arm was re-analyzed as a separate cohort, further identifying sub-cohorts of individuals with and without prospectively determined symptom remission (PSR). Pooled incidence rates, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) were derived from within-cohort Poisson, Kaplan-Meyer and Cox regression analyses. Outcomes: Nineteen treatment cohorts (n=5,111), of which 2,938 had PSR, while 2,173 did not (non-PSR), with 3,959·53 actual observed participant years were meta-analyzed. Pooled incidence of relapse was 22·97 per 100 patient-years, being 14·76 per 100 patient-years for the PSR sub-cohort and 31·51 per 100 patient-years for the non-PSR sub-cohort (IRR=0·39, 95%CI=0.29-0·53). The strongest predictors of relapse were having tardive dyskinesia (HR=2·39, 95%CI=1·05-5·42) and comorbid substance use disorder (HR=1·55, 95%CI=1·15-2·10) at treatment onset. Predictors were similar between the PSR and non-PSR sub-cohorts, except for greater impact of substance use disorder in PSR (p<0·01). Interpretation: A sizeable proportion of individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders relapses during confirmed antipsychotic treatment. This risk doubles in individuals not achieving symptom remission, but even in remitted patients, 1 out of 7 patients relapsed in <1 year. Developing tardive dyskinesia and comorbid substance use may have pathophysiological implications for relapse on confirmed antipsychotic treatment. Funding Statement: This study was funded by Northwell Health. Declaration of Interests: Dr Rubio has been a consultant or has received speaker honoraria from: Lundbeck, Teva. He has also received royalties from UpToDate, and grant support from Alkermes. Dr Tiihonen reports personal fees from the Finnish Medicines Agency (Fimea), European Medicines Agency (EMA), Eli Lilly, JanssenCilag, Lundbeck, and Otsuka; is a member of advisory board for Lundbeck, and has received grants from the Stanley Foundation and Sigrid Juselius Foundation. Dr Taipale reports personal fees from JanssenCilag. Dr. Tiihonen and Dr. Taipale have participated in research projects funded by grants from JanssenCilag and Eli Lilly to their employing institution. Dr Malhotra has served as a consultant for Forum Pharmaceuticals and has served on a scientific advisory board for Genomind, Inc. Dr. Correll has been a consultant and/or advisor to or has received honoraria from: Acadia, Alkermes, Allergan, Angelini, Axsome, Gedeon Richter, Gerson Lehrman Group, IntraCellular Therapies, Janssen/J&J, LB Pharma, Lundbeck, MedAvante-ProPhase, Medscape, Neurocrine, Noven, Otsuka, Pfizer, Recordati, Rovi, Sumitomo Dainippon, Sunovion, Supernus, Takeda, and Teva. He has provided expert testimony for Janssen and Otsuka. He served on a Data Safety Monitoring Board for Lundbeck, Rovi, Supernus, and Teva. He received royalties from UpToDate and grant support from Janssen and Takeda. He is also a stock option holder of LB Pharma. Dr Kane has been a consultant and/or advisor for or has received honoraria from Alkermes, Allergan , LB Pharmaceuticals, H. Lundbeck, Intracellular Therapies, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Johnson and Johnson, Merck, Minerva, Neurocrine, Newron, Otsuka, Pierre Fabre, Reviva, Roche, Sumitomo Dainippon, Sunovion, Takeda, Teva and UpToDate and is a shareholder in LB Pharmaceuticals and Vanguard Research Group. Dr Schoretsanitis, John and Guinart declare no conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: Each data owner obtained ethics committee approval prior to sharing the de-identified data.
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