e13809 Background: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation’s (CMMI) Enhancing Oncology Model (EOM) is a risk-bearing, population-based value-based care (VBC) model requiring participating physician group practices (PGP) to take financial risk and performance accountability for episodes of care for seven common cancers. We studied the association between case volume, financial outcomes, and risk in the EOM. Methods: Using deidentified public use EOM baseline episode files (2016 - 2020), and the EOM Price Prediction Model provided by CMMI, we calculated the predicted baseline price (BP) per episode and savings (difference between baseline price and actual expenditures (AE)), grouped PGPs per baseline period by episode count (case volume), and evaluated the risk (variation of savings). ANOVA, F-test, and pair-wise tests were used to evaluate statistical significance. Results: Two-thirds of the 16,348 PGP appearances per time-period (n) had <72 episodes (average: 93.8, median: 36). Table 1 shows population and savings metrics. There was a significant effect of episode counts on savings (ANOVA/F-test: F(5,16342) = 24.5, p<0.0005). Post hoc pair-wise t-tests (Holm correction to adjust p) indicated groups with <72 episodes had increased risk (4.5:1, p<0.0005) and >361 episodes had the least risk (p<0.0005). Groups with <72 episodes had four times the median savings than groups with >361 episodes. Conclusions: As expected with the law of large numbers, groups with fewer episodes are exposed to higher risk and extremes of financial outcomes in EOM-like models while paradoxically generating better savings. The impact of case-mix differences among groups is apt for further exploration. Differences in PGP dynamics and provider like-mindedness with care transformation is one possible explanation for this paradox. Future models should incorporate risk mitigating modeling techniques (case-volume adjustments) or facilitate easier partnering arrangements to engage groups with fewer episodes. [Table: see text]