Financial Market Turbulence Research Articles

Do Asset Regulations Impede Portfolio Diversification? Evidence from European Life Insurance Funds

We investigate the effects of regulatory restrictions on the amounts invested in risky asset classes in life insurance funds across EU countries. By estimating a panel data econometric model, we find that these restrictions have an economically and statistically significant negative impact on risk-adjusted returns of approximately 1-2 percentage points, holding constant other relevant factors. The use of explicit limits on asset allocation can be a blunt instrument for regulating risk-taking, in that they impede investment managers’ ability to exploit the benefits of portfolio diversification, and thus distort portfolio selection below the efficient frontier. We also find that those countries which impose the most stringent constraints tend to experience the largest efficiency losses. Furthermore, our results suggest that firms subject to prescriptive regulation are less able to respond quickly under conditions of financial market turbulence. Our results are robust to inclusion of additional controls, tests for fixed effects and country-specific heterogeneity, and other robustness checks.

The Invisible Hand? Using Tax Credits to Encourage Institutional Investment in Social Housing

Over recent decades many developed countries have commercialised the provision of state-subsidised housing, and introduced a stronger role for market forces. Government financial support now often aims to leverage debt or equity investment. Spearheading this policy change is a quest for the ‘Holy Grail’ of contemporary social housing policy: private equity investment, sourced from large institutional investors such as banks and pension funds. For comparative housing research, this opens up exciting new territory. Recent Australian developments using tax credits to incentivise investment – based on a successful US scheme – provide a valuable opportunity for comparison. This exploratory paper contrasts the two countries’ housing tax credit schemes, highlighting outcomes for investors, tenants and the wider housing system. Foregone corporate taxes provide governments with a powerful ‘invisible hand’ to incentivise flows of private equity, replacing direct public grants. Yet despite free market rhetoric, tax credit schemes still rely on additional government intervention - especially during financial market turbulence.

Trust no more? The impact of the crisis on citizens’ trust in central banks

Citizens’ trust in economic institutions has generally declined since the onset of the crisis. In particular, Eurobarometer surveys show that trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) has fallen significantly during the crisis. This paper studies the determinants of public trust in the ECB over the lifetime of the euro. Net trust in the ECB has decreased significantly in those countries which have experienced increasing sovereign bond yields and financial market turbulence. The finding that country-specific variables affect citizens’ trust in the ECB may seem counterintuitive. However, it is consistent with strong evidence in the political science literature showing that domestic considerations play a significant role when citizens get an opportunity to express their opinion on EU matters.

Banks’ Responses to Funding Liquidity Shocks: Lending Adjustment, Liquidity Hoarding and Fire Sales

The crisis of 2007-2009 has shown that financial market turbulence can lead to huge funding liquidity problems for banks. This paper provides empirical evidence on banks' responses to wholesale funding shocks, using data of seventeen of the largest Dutch banks over the period January 2004 to April 2010. The dynamic interrelations among instruments of bank liquidity management are modelled in a panel Vector Autoregressive (p-VAR) framework. Orthogonalized impulse responses reveal that banks respond to a negative funding liquidity shock in a number of ways. First, banks reduce lending, especially wholesale lending. Second, banks hoard liquidity in the form of liquid bonds and central bank reserves. Third, banks conduct fire sales of securities, especially equity. We also find that fire sales are triggered by liquidity constraints rather than by solvency constraints.

Banks’ Responses to Funding Liquidity Shocks: Lending Adjustment, Liquidity Hoarding and Fire Sales

The crisis of 2007-2009 has shown that financial market turbulence can lead to huge funding liquidity problems for banks. This paper provides empirical evidence on banks’ responses to wholesale funding shocks, using data of seventeen of the largest Dutch banks over the period January 2004 to April 2010. The dynamic interrelations among instruments of bank liquidity management are modeled in a panel Vector Autoregressive (p-VAR) framework. Orthogonalized impulse responses reveal that banks respond to a negative funding liquidity shock in a number of ways. First, banks reduce lending, especially wholesale lending. Second, banks hoard liquidity in the form of liquid bonds and central bank reserves. Third, banks conduct fire sales of securities, especially equity. We also find that fire sales are triggered by liquidity constraints rather than by solvency constraints.

Yes Virginia, Diversification Is Still a Free Lunch

Recent financial market turbulence led many analysts to question the efficacy of diversification. This article uses changing correlations to show that diversification is still the tool that enhances risk-adjusted performance. Recent economic turbulence, however, makes it necessary to include more asset classes. <b>TOPICS:</b>Portfolio construction, risk management, financial crises and financial market history

Macro, Frailty, and Contagion Effects in Defaults: Lessons from the 2008 Credit Crisis

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks have been subjected to a sequence of stress tests to measure system stability. Such tests are formulated in terms of adverse economic scenarios rather than in terms of systematic default rate increases.This suggests that macroeconomic conditions fully capture default stress. However, two additional explanations can be found in the literature for the occurrence of default clusters: autonomous default rate dynamics, also known as frailty, and industry-specific effects including contagion. We develop a new methodological framework to disentangle, quantify, and test these three competing explanations. Using U.S. default data we find that observed macro and financial market factors account for only 30--60% of systematic default risk. Consequently, stress-testing frameworks that only control for observed macro conditions leave out a substantial share of systematic risk. The components not related to business-cycle dynamics (frailty) are particularly relevant before and during times of financial market turbulence. For example, we find clear systemic risk build-up over the period preceding the 2008 credit crisis.

Pensions, Social Security, and the privatization of risk

ContentsIntroduction, by Mitchell A. Orenstein1. Retirements at Risk, by Alicia H. Munnell2. Expanding Participation in America's Workplace Retirement System, by Gary Burtless3. Financial Market Turbulence and Social Security Reform, by Gary Burtless4. The Plan to Save American Workers' Retirements5. Learning from International Experience, by Mitchell A. OrensteinList of Contributors

The Dynamics of International Asset Price Linkages and Their Effects on German Stock and Bond Markets

The financial market turbulence in 1998, as other crises previously, produced strong price movements in the securities markets worldwide. This reflected, first, a general reassessment of credit risk, and, second, a drying-up of liquidity even in some of the largest mature securities markets. As a result, cross-market return correlations temporarily underwent dramatic changes, challenging portfolio allocation and risk management strategies which rely on constant historical comovements of asset prices. Against this background, the immediate question arises of how asset price linkages can be properly measured when they are subject to periodic changes as observed in times of market stress. The main purpose of the present paper is to address this question more thoroughly. In order to measure the dynamics of international asset price linkages, we first employ bivariate GARCH models to analyse the comovements between weekly stock and bond market returns across the G3 countries. GARCH models take account of the specific time-series properties of short-term asset returns, which is needed to obtain reliable estimates of the cross-country linkages. Next, switching-regime ARCH or 'SWARCH' models are applied which can identify different volatility regimes for short-term asset prices endogenously. We use this methodology to address two issues: first, 'Are international short-term return linkages state-dependent?,' and second, 'Do volatility spillovers affect individual segments of the domestic bond or stock market differently (i.e. are they market-segment-dependent)?' The first question may also be referred to as the 'contagion hypothesis.' This states that contagion leads to a significant increase in the cross-market correlation during states of financial market turmoil. Hence, contagion differs from mere 'interdependence' in that it demands a stronger-than-normal market linkage during periods of stress.

Central Bank Response to the 2007-08 Financial Market Turbulence: Experiences and Lessons Drawn

The paper reviews the policy response of major central banks during the 2007–08 financial market turbulence and suggests that there is scope for convergence among central bank operational frameworks through the adoption of those elements that proved most instrumental in calming markets. These include (i) rapid liquidity provision to a broad range of counterparties; (ii) a congruence of collateral policies with market developments; (iii) an ability to increase the average maturity of liquidity provision; and (iv) central bank cooperation to facilitate the use of cross-border collateral. Flexible use of open market operations was needed to avoid the stigma associated with traditional standing facilities, and allowed central banks to maintain at least basic market functioning. Having a flexible framework, however, requires careful consideration of the desirable limits to market intervention.

Central Bank Response to the 2007-08 Financial Market Turbulence: Experiences and Lessons Drawn

The paper reviews the policy response of major central banks during the 2007-08 financial market turbulence and suggests that there is scope for convergence among central bank operational frameworks through the adoption of those elements that proved most instrumental in calming markets. These include (i) rapid liquidity provision to a broad range of counterparties; (ii) a congruence of collateral policies with market developments; (iii) an ability to increase the average maturity of liquidity provision; and (iv) central bank cooperation to facilitate the use of cross-border collateral. Flexible use of open market operations was needed to avoid the stigma associated with traditional standing facilities, and allowed central banks to maintain at least basic market functioning. Having a flexible framework, however, requires careful consideration of the desirable limits to market intervention.

Report of the Managing Director to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the IMF's Policy Agenda

This report reviews the work of the Fund since the 2007 Spring Meetings and the priorities for the period ahead. Progress has been made in the past few months with respect to the framework for surveillance and its implementation, quota and voice, and the Fund’s income model. Other key aspects of the MTS have also advanced, including with regard to Bank-Fund collaboration and the Fund’s role in low-income countries. Future work will focus on completion of the quota and voice reform, reaching agreement on the Fund’s new income model, and delivering budgetary restraint, as well as addressing the evolving challenges facing the Fund and the world economy, notably the financial market turbulence and financial globalization. The paper reports on recent developments in the global economy (Section II) and progress in the following key areas: reshaping surveillance (Section III); emerging market economies and crisis prevention (Section IV); the role of the Fund in low-income countries (Section V); quota and voice issues (Section VI), building institutions and capacity (Section VII); and managing an effective institution (Section VIII).

Financial Linkages Between the U.S. and Latin Amercia: Evidence From Daily Data

Motivated by recent bursts of global financial market turbulence, this paper investigates the linkages between the financial markets in the United States and those of the seven largest Latin American economies, focusing on the impact of shocks originating in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets. After documenting that cross-country linkages were different in tranquil and turbulent times within our sample, we find that: (i) for stock markets, recent episodes of market turbulence stood out from preceding ones as they showed an increased sensitivity of Latin American markets to U.S. shocks, reversing a trend of weakening linkages; (ii) currency markets in Latin America exhibited a decrease in cross-market linkages with the U.S. during the last episodes of volatility, consistent with increased exchange rate flexibility in the region; and (iii) the external bond markets in Latin America remained on a trend of weakening linkages with U.S. corporate bonds, while they increased their sensitivity to movements in other emerging market bond markets.

What Does Yield Curve Smoothness Mean?

The degree of smoothness of interest rates alongside the maturity spectrum can provide indications regarding the degree of arbitrage trading activity in interest rate markets, which in turn may be related, to some extent, to market expectations, risk aversion and market liquidity. We present two main applications of smoothness indicators. First, using tick data for the money market of the euro we show that fluctuations in smoothness in a very liquid market reflect some changes in the pattern of risk aversion amongst market participants. Second, we compare developments in smoothness in government bond markets across five countries (Germany, Spain, France, Japan and the United States). Amongst various results, we find that the degree of smoothness declines in periods of heightened financial market volatility and liquidity dry-ups. In particular, smoothness was low in the United States, Japan and France during the episode of financial market turbulence of the autumn of 1998.

Measuring off-balance-sheet leverage

The simultaneous unwinding of leveraged positions can trigger financial market turbulence. Although balance-sheet measures of leverage are available, it is useful to construct a measure of leverage that incorporates both on- and off-balance-sheet activities. This paper provides measures of leverage implicit in derivative contracts by decomposing the contracts into cash market equivalent components. A leverage ratio can then be calculated for this replicating portfolio, which consists of own funds (equity) and borrowed funds equivalents (debt). Methods for aggregating leverage by institution and by markets are presented. The interaction between leverage and risk is discussed, and a modified capital adequacy ratio is calculated, which captures off-balance-sheet exposure.

Measuring Off-Balance-Sheet Leverage

The simultaneous unwinding of leveraged positions can trigger financial market turbulence. Although balance-sheet measures of leverage are available, it is useful to construct a measure of leverage that incorporates both on- and off-balance-sheet activities. This paper provides measures of leverage implicit in derivative contracts by decomposing the contracts into cash market equivalent components. A leverage ratio can then be calculated for this replicating portfolio, which consists of own funds (equity) and borrowed funds equivalents (debt). Methods for aggregating leverage by institution and by markets are presented. The interaction between leverage and risk is discussed, and a modified capital adequacy ratio is calculated, which captures off-balance-sheet exposure.

Measuring off-Balance-Sheet Leverage

The simultaneous unwinding of leveraged positions can trigger financial market turbulence. Although balance-sheet measures of leverage are available, it is useful to construct a measure of leverage that incorporates both on- and off-balance-sheet activities. This paper provides measures of leverage implicit in derivative contracts by decomposing the contracts into cash market equivalent components. A leverage ratio can then be calculated for this replicating portfolio, which consists of own funds (equity) and borrowed funds equivalents (debt). Methods for aggregating leverage by institution and by markets are presented. The interaction between leverage and risk is discussed, and a modified capital adequacy ratio is calculated, which captures off-balance-sheet exposure.