Financial History Research Articles

The two stabilities: Friends, good friends, or inseparable?

Throughout his long and distinguished career, David Mayes was concerned with a wide range of subjects. This paper focuses on three of them: on monetary and financial history, on monetary stability, and on financial stability. We use the first of these to open up exploration of the second and third. A relationship is often asserted between monetary and financial stability, but how close and how durable is it? Is it one that holds through a long span of history, or is it contingent on a range of factors and therefore comes and goes? To address this, we use here data exclusively from Britain.

The financial position of English voluntary organisations: relationships between subjective perceptions and financial realities

The financial position of English social policy charities has received much attention, with a particular focus on the difficulties that small- and medium-sized organisations are experiencing. However, in this article we show that the evidence base has a number of limitations. We then demonstrate, analysing data from a survey of more than 1,000 charities, that organisational size, per se, is only one dimension of the problem: perceptions that the operating and financial environment is challenging are related to other organisational characteristics. We then add to the survey data indicators of financial vulnerability to investigate whether there is a relationship between perception (responses to questions about the resources available to charities) and financial reality (the recent financial history of these charities). Somewhat reassuringly, however, we demonstrate that there is a degree of consistency between the perceptions that organisations report and we discuss the implications of the findings.

Risk Measurement-Value at Risk (VaR) Versus Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): A Teaching Note

Financial history has demonstrated that desirable and undesirable outcomes are always possible. Participants in the industry have made substantial progress in quantifying and mitigating many sources of risks. One more recent indicator is value at risk (VaR). However, this technique remains controversial, despite being an industry standard. Several studies have identified limitations with VaR. This teaching note compares it to conditional value at risk (CVaR) to demonstrate both the usefulness and limitations of these techniques and provide recommendations concerning which risk measurement method is more prudent under selected states of nature to aid professors in explaining the usefulness of VaR and CVaR.

King Caz: Cazenove, Thatcherism, and the 1980s financial revolution.

This article shows how elite stockbrokers Cazenove and Co. responded to the 'Big Bang' deregulation of the financial sector in 1986, using social networks and inherited practices to navigate an ostensibly technical and modernizing revolution. The Thatcher administration's reform of the London Stock Exchange was an economic enterprise intended to end restrictive practices and open the City to competition. A more open meritocratic financial sector marked the 'death of gentlemanly capitalism' and coalesced with a political agenda for entrepreneurialism and popular capitalism. Yet this case study shows how Cazenove's culture drove its strategy, that privilege and hierarchy were sustained by influential cross-sector networks, and that there was resistance to change, even though technological change and new financial instruments were embraced as part of a strategy which mixed innovation with tradition. Essentially, elite networks persisted in the 1980s deregulated economy, as established relationships were used to optimum effect and became more important after Big Bang. A more mutually supportive relationship between finance and industry than has hitherto been imagined is also demonstrated. By showing how a modernizing revolution was navigated using social networks and traditions, this article restores the role of culture to financial history. It also contributes to a body of work in twentieth-century British history which challenges the perception that neoliberal ideas were consistently applied under Thatcherism and complicates the notion of a coherent Thatcherite project.

From Financial History to History & Finance

Financial history studies facts and institutions of the past. Such facts and institutions are interesting subjects in themselves, or they can help us interpret the present through analogy. History & Finance reverses the role of history in finance research: it exploits natural experiments of the past as a means to directly explaining current financial outcomes through the long-run persistence of economic and social phenomena. I first define the History & Finance approach and its relationship to Economic and Financial history. Then, I survey the work based on History & Finance across the subfields of finance. I discuss the challenges raised by History & Finance, and how researchers have thus far tackled them. Finally, I comment on the avenues for future research that History & Finance opens to finance scholars and economic historians alike.

Consumer credit scores as a novel tool for identifying health in urban U.S. neighborhoods

PurposeCredit scores may operate as a socioeconomic indicator of health: they represent cumulative financial history that directly influences ability to access financial and nonfinancial resources related to health. Yet, little is known about the relationship of credit score and health or to traditional measures of socioeconomic position (SEP). Our objectives were to (1) evaluate the association between area-level credit score and individual self-rated health and (2) compare credit score to traditional markers of area-level SEP in predicting self-rated health. MethodsEquifax estimates of average household credit score in 2015 among nine-digit zip code regions were combined with a representative survey of 2083 residents of Philadelphia to estimate the correlation with income, housing value, education, and occupational status and then predict the odds of self-rated health for credit score and each SEP measure. ResultsCredit score was moderately correlated with SEP markers (r = −0.78 to 0.49). After adjusting for area- and individual-level SEP and demographic factors, each SD increase in credit score is associated with 26% greater odds of better self-rated health (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.46). Credit score had a larger effect size than other SEP markers. ConclusionsCredit score may be a useful complement to traditional measures of SEP in assessing health outcomes.

Fuentes fiscales e historia agraria. El debate en torno de las posibilidades heurísticas de los amillaramientos

Fuentes fiscales e historia agraria. El debate en tomo de las posibilidades heurísticas de los amillaramientos. El objetivo del presente artículo consiste en una breve reflexión sobre las posibilidades que ofrece como fuente histórica la documentación generada por una de las figuras tributarias surgidas en 1845: la Contribución de Inmuebles, Cultivo y Ganadería. El tema ha sido objeto de cierto debate, por lo que una parte del trabajo se centra en el análisis de los argumentos a favor y en contra, mientras que en el resto del mismo se exponen las principales aportaciones conseguidas recientemente por un grupo de especialistas de Historia Agraria utilizando, con las debidas precauciones, la documentación indicada, esencialmente los Amillaramientos.
 
 [fr] Sources fiscales et histoire agraire. Le debat sur les posibilites heuritiques des amillaramientos. L'objetif du présent article consiste á une brève reflexion sur les posibilites qui offre comme source historique la documentation générée par un procédé fiscal sorti de la Reforme de 1845: la Contribution d'Inmeubles, Culture et Elevage. La sujet a donné lieu á un certain débat; donc, une première partie de mon travail est consacré á une analyse des argumentations pro et contra, tandis que dans la deuxième on expose les principaux progrés de nos connaissances sur l'histoire agraires dans ces dernières années, réussis grâce aux recherches d'un groupe d'especialistes qu'ont utilisé de façon systématique, mais avec des precautions, les Amillaramientos.

RESULTS OF 2017: SOME TRENDS IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE WORLD AND RUSSIAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

In this article, we analyzed the growth of many worlds and Russian financial indicators observed in 2017. Despite signs of improvement in the economic, monetary and financial sectors, the situation remains difficult and many risks still remain. The aim of the study is to formulate the main trends of the past year, giving grounds for a critical analysis of some of the official Russian forecasts for 2018–2020. In our analysis, we used economic and statistical research methods. The methodology consists of the collection and analysis of primary data, on the basis of which conclusions are drawn about a number of global trends. At the same time, it is taken into account that the study of the economic and financial history of the past year makes it possible to trace the positive evolution of many processes in the world and the Russian economy and finance. We chose for the analysis a number of indicators (real GDP growth, stock indices, exchange rates, key rates of central banks, etc.), which allowed to demonstrate clearly the improvement of the situation in the economy and finance of a number of countries in 2017 (including Russia). It is shown that the Russian economy demonstrates the connection with global trends. We also constructed the regression model for Russian inflation. One of the main results of our analysis is the specification of some risks taking into account the peculiarities of the current global economic recovery and the high dependence of the Russian economy and finance on external factors. Our analysis is important for improving the forecasts for finance and the economy of theRussian Federationas a whole. The research of many Russian and global indicators and trends shows that risks in the economy and finance of the Russian Federation may increase due to the potential global instability and new Western sanctions on Russia in 2018. This can occur given the expected continuation of the current policy of the Bank of Russia, and in defiance of some optimistic official forecasts. It is necessary to review the current monetary and fiscal policy in order to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors (including political ones).

Patterns of Panic: Financial Crisis Language in Historical Newspapers

This paper presents a new indicator on financial stress from 1889 to 2016 based on the reporting in five major US newspapers. This indicator provides detailed and high-frequency coverage of more than a century of financial history based on a previously untapped corpus of 35 million newspaper titles. I validate the indicator using 23,000 manually coded articles. The indicator displays plausible comovement with key economic variables and other measures of financial instability. Periods of negative financial sentiment predict recessions, rising unemployment, foreshadow lower stock market performance and rising corporate bond spreads.

La Section financière du Parquet de la Seine : comment protéger efficacement l’épargne publique ?

Créée en 1912, la Section financière était à l’origine une simple division du Parquet de la Seine. Elle est devenue au début des années 1930 un organisme solidement constitué disposant de ses propres substituts, juges d’instruction, police judiciaire et experts ; tous spécialisés en matière financière. L’article s’intéresse à cet organisme plus que centenaire qui occupe un rôle important dans l’histoire financière et judiciaire de la France. À cet égard, il fait ressortir trois points essentiels : d’abord, les origines de la création de la Section au sein du Parquet de la Seine, ensuite le développement de son activité dans l’entre-deux-guerres et enfin, la mise en question de son fonctionnement en 1934, notamment au niveau de sa liaison avec les services financiers de la police. Classification JEL : N23, N24, K20, K29, K42 .

Marc Flandreau. Anthropologists in the Stock Exchange: A Financial History of Victorian Science.

Marc Flandreau. Anthropologists in the Stock Exchange: A Financial History of Victorian Science.

Stock price randomness of BRICS nations

Stock market efficiency has been a debatable topic in financial history. Many researchers believe in the authenticity of random walk theory, whereas, there are few other researchers who believe that market can be predicted for a shorter duration of time. The present study has employed variance ratio test, KS goodness of fit test and run test to check the efficiency of BRICS nations in three eras, namely, pre BRIC era (1st January 2006 to 31st December 2008), post BRIC era (1st January 2008 to 31st December 2010) and post BRICS era (1st January 2010 to 31st December 2015). The overall results of the study prove inefficiency of stock markets in all the eras. Markets illustrate signs of over reaction at various points of time whereas; equilibrium is achieved within a short span of period. Markets display tendencies of mean reversion in all the eras.

The Regulation of Money Circulation by Partisans and Soviet Power in the Steppe Altai (September 1919 — March 1920)

This paper focuses on a little-studied aspect of the financial history of the Civil War in Western Siberia. The author aims to highlight the financial and economic activities of the Steppe Altai partisans in autumn 1919 referring to published and newly discovered sources and show the influence of these actions, not always coordinated with the central government, on the subsequent policy of the Altai Provincial Revolutionary Committee. The article presents the interconnection between the financial and economic activities of partisans and Soviet power with the policies pursued by them as a whole. By comparing the forms of financial measures of the insurgents and the Soviet power, the comparative and historical method allows the author to track the dynamics in the economic sphere. The study shows the relationship between the issue considered in the article with the general historiography of the situation in the circulation of money in Siberia during the Civil War. The basis for the article is office sources published in the Soviet period, as well as unpublished sources introduced into scholarly circulation for the first time (found by the author in the State Archive of Altai Krai and the State Archive of Novosibirsk Region). Having considered the attempts of money-issue measures of the partisans and the Altai Provincial Revolutionary Committee, the author comes to the conclusion that the “partisan vision” of the functioning of the financial sphere and its management in the region continued to exist until the spring of 1920. The experience of the pro-Soviet and Soviet powers of the Steppe Altai once again confirmed that, regardless of the degree of legitimacy of the government and its political bias for solving financial problems, the key solution was always one way, i.e. the implementation of money emission.

Swap Curve Steepener

The case is about a decision problem facing James on whether or not to invest in a structured product called the “CMS Steepener” issued by a large US investment bank. The payoff from the product is linked to two constant maturity swap (CMS) rates, and the investor profits if the difference between the two CMS rates increases, or alternatively if the CMS curve steepens. The case describes the risks that investing in such a product poses, and presents relevant data on the CMS rates, term structure and recent financial history of the issuer to help resolve James's decision problem.

La structure et la stabilité des premières propositions de banque foncière chez John Law

It has now been over two decades, yet Antoin Murphy’s discovery and publication of John Law’s hitherto unknown Essay on a Land Bank has elicited little attention. I examine the nature and stability of the banking proposals set out in that Essay. Two distinct models for the establishment of a land bank are proposed and Law attributes very different properties to them. The second proposal has important commonalties with financial developments in the USA prior to 2008 in as much as it seeks to transform a pool of mortgages into a divisible and highly liquid asset. Careful attention to the differences between these two proposals contained in the Essay sheds new light on Law’s well known Money and Trade Considered: With a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money which reproduces much that is said in the Essay, but does not carefully distinguish between the dynamic properties of different proposals. As a result contradictory statements appear right next to each other. Here Essay can serve as a key to understanding parts of Law’s logic in his published work, despite considerable theoretical distance between the works. Lastly the Essay suggests that Law’s conception of financial history may have misled him into thinking that he could target an unsustainably low interest rate in 1719-1720.

Anthropologists in the Stock Exchange: A Financial History of Victorian Science. By Marc Flandreau. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016. Pp xix, 1–421. $35.00, paper; $105.00, cloth.

Anthropologists in the Stock Exchange: A Financial History of Victorian Science. By Marc Flandreau. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016. Pp xix, 1–421. $35.00, paper; $105.00, cloth.

The impact of maintenance fees on students’ willingness to maintain bank accounts and establish credit profile

The purpose of this article is two-fold: to investigate how recurring maintenance fees levied on students’ accounts impact on university students’ willingness to maintain bank accounts and therefore begin creating the necessary credit profiles. Credit profiles provide financial history that is useful for banks and other lenders to evaluate clients’ credit worthiness. Many students in South African universities are ignorant of this requirement and usually make choices detrimental to their accessing current and future financial products. The banks’ service quality and students’ expectations need to be harmonized at some point. The study was exploratory in nature, using expressive statements on banking costs to expose common causes of financial burden, the best and worst case scenarios of utilizing banking products including benefit accrual from their use. Pre-intervention data was collected using questionnaires N=60 conveniently sampled financial management students. The post-intervention data was collected from the same students N=55 using similar questionnaires where five students did not show up. The study also assessed financial management tutorial influence on students’ decision making after being exposed to banking market demands and their costs. SPSS was used to analyze data collected. Cheaper once-off cardless services were found to be popular with students receiving money, citing its reasonableness and depositor charger rather than recipient shoul¬dering transaction costs. Students confirmed their satisfaction with saving costly re¬curring bank account maintenance fees, earning 0% interest on credit balances. Bank account holders increased in post-intervention compared to pre-tutorial with better understanding of client’s profile value for accessing credit. Other students remained reluctant to maintain bank accounts despite future economic benefits. Bank account maintenance fees discourage students from maintaining bank accounts. Maintenance fees may aid banks user cost recovery but losing clients to competing cheap cardless products may be more costly. The study contributes to relationship management in banking sector. Research debate focused on bank selection criteria based on established key quality factors and service. Little scholarly investigation exists on reasons for annulling bank accounts, replaced with once-off cardless services that is gaining popularity with university students over maintaining bank accounts. Highlighting what is critical to students, the paper may influence banks policies and developers to design innovative products suitable for university students market. Affordability and incentives are key attraction points for clients, mainly university students operating with limited resources. Loyalty prospects can surpass immediate recovery derived from maintenance fees.

延享期の幕府財政史料 酒井家記録(二)

延享期の幕府財政史料 酒井家記録(二)

Financial Market History Can Help Today's Investors

What do practitioners need to know about financial market history? In July 2015, Cambridge Judge Business School hosted many of the world's leading academics and a number of senior investment professionals to discuss this question. The result is Financial Market History: Reflections on the Past for Investors Today, edited by David Chambers and Elroy Dimson and published by the CFA Institute Research Foundation. In this interview, Chambers, academic director of the Centre for Endowment Asset Management at Cambridge Judge Business School, and Dimson, chairman of the Centre for Endowment Asset Management and emeritus professor of finance at London Business School, discuss the book and its contents.

居城弘著, 『ドイツ金融史研究-ドイツ型金融システムとライヒスバンク-』, ミネルヴァ書房, 2001年, viii+508頁

居城弘著, 『ドイツ金融史研究-ドイツ型金融システムとライヒスバンク-』, ミネルヴァ書房, 2001年, viii+508頁