Financial History Research Articles

Predicting Airbnb pricing: a comparative analysis of artificial intelligence and traditional approaches

Airbnb's distinctive model accommodates a broad spectrum of hosts, ranging from non-professionals to traditional establishments, resulting in a nuanced pricing system that poses challenges for prediction. This paper delves into Airbnb pricing and, to address this exercise, introduces computational approaches that combine traditional linear methods and advanced artificial intelligence techniques. Utilizing real data from the Netherlands, the study specifically focuses on all active Airbnb listings until September 2019. Our contribution stands out by incorporating the financial history of diverse rental offerings, a novel aspect compared to existing literature. Unlike other studies, our investigation spans various cities in the Netherlands, providing a comprehensive view beyond individual regions. Our results highlight the robust predictive capabilities of Artificial Intelligence techniques, that lead to lower susceptibility to overfitting and to superior overall performances. However, traditional methods also prove to be valuable, aiding in determining the significance of predictors in the predicting exercise. Collectively, these approaches offer valuable insights to enhance pricing strategies and overall performances within the Airbnb market.

Misplaced Trust: How Positions of Influence Can be Abused in Managed Bubbles

This paper analyzes three of the most socially impactful and financially catastrophic managed bubbles in financial history, in order to understand their formation and guide future preventative legislation and market analysis. Through an in-depth analysis and historical comparison of the South Sea bubble, the Railway Mania of 1845, and the Dot Com bubble of the 1990s, historical parallels are established despite differing levels of existing market complexity. Furthermore, by understanding the key perpetrators of the three historical schemes and their contribution to the growth, manipulation, and collapse of the three bubbles, a generalized understanding of positions prone to financial manipulation can be better understood. The main focus of this paper is placed on the manipulative practices of government and media officials, and comparisons between their actions and methods reveal similar characteristics in their relative schemes, which can act as indicators of fraudulent market manipulation in future bubbling markets. The main characteristics analyzed through the three schemes is the manipulation of authority, credibility, and public perception.

How Finance Colonised Aotearoa: A Concise Counter-History


 This paper intervenes in orthodox under-standings of Aotearoa New Zealand’s colonial history to elucidate another history that is not widely recognised. This is a financial history of colonisation which, while implicit in existing accounts, is peripheral and often incidental to the central narrative. Undertaking to reread Aotearoa New Zealand’s early colonial history from 1839 to 1850, this paper seeks to render finance, financial instruments, and financial institutions explicit in their capacity as central agents of colonisation. In doing so, it offers a response to the relative inattention paid to finance as compared with the state in material practices of colonisation. The counter-history that this paper begins to elicit contains important lessons for counter-futures. For, beyond its implications for knowledge, the persistent and violent role of finance in the colonisation of Aotearoa has concrete implications for decolonial and anti-capitalist politics today.

Celebrating Markham’s Approach to Financial History: Getting at the Macro One Deal at a Time

Professor Markham's financial history does an excellent job of reviewing and analyzing financial history for the period from the Great Recession to the COVID pandemic. His granular approach to financial history conveys macro-trends by focusing on the most defining transactions and episodes from this period.

Markham’s Opus Remembering the Past—Watching it Repeat From the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Financial History of the United States 2010–2020 (by Jerry W. Markham 2022)

This article discusses the impact and significance of Professor Jerry Markham's financial history entitled "From the Great Recession to Covid-19 Pandemic: A Financial History of the United States 2010-2020. The article describes how this volume 7 to his series on the financial history of the United States captures the significance of the financial events and tumult that occurred between 2010 and 2020.

From the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Financial History of the United States 2010-2020 —A Comparison of the Government’s Response to the Two Financial Crises that Bookended the 2010 to 2020 Decade

This article compares the government's legislative and regulatory response to each of the two financial crises that bookended the 2010-2020 decade and how the response to the COVID-19 crisis was affected by various provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act enacted in 2010 in response to the 2008 financial crisis. The article concludes with six lessons we learned from these two financial crises experienced in relatively short order: act fast, act with force, act on multiple fronts, regain or retain citizens' confidence in the financial system, ensure access to liquidity, and aid those who are struggling.

From the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Financial History of the United States 2010–2020: Introduction

This article is an Introduction to a symposium on the Author's latest volume in his seven volume series on the Financial History of the United States. The Introduction summarizes the articles published in the symposium and reviews how each contributes to the ongoing analysis and debate over the causes of financial panics and government policies to deal with such events.

Book Review From the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Pandemic A Financial History of the United States

A review of Professor Jerry Markham's book "From the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic."

Credit networks and business dynamics in a viceregal capital: Santafé de Bogotá in the age of Charles III

This article provides aggregate data on credit flows in Santafé de Bogotá, the capital of the Viceroyalty of New Granada (present-day Colombia, Ecuador and western Venezuela). By perusing a thorough report submitted to Bourbon authorities on notarial transactions, which included both ecclesiastical and non-ecclesiastical loans in the city, the article estimates the volume and size of lending activity while exploring how distinct types of credit interacted and shaped the business milieu of the region. It argues that by the late 1770s, Catholic Church lending had ceased to be the main source of investable funds in the region, with merchants and other non-ecclesiastical investors injecting growing funds into sectors traditionally avoided by ecclesiastical lenders such as commerce, mining and manufacturing. Network analysis suggests that merchants became brokers between different credit sources, alleviating information asymmetries and opening the credit market to borrowers with collateral and institutional restrictions willing to pay higher interest rates. Finally, by focusing on New Granada, the largest gold producer of the Spanish Empire, the article identifies some distinctive credit patterns that are different from those developed in silver-driven economies such as New Spain and Peru. Thus, the article provides new paths to study Latin American financial history.

A Comparative Study on Loan Status: Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms for Predictive Analysis

This research delves into a comprehensive comparative study focused on predicting loan status through the application of various machine learning (ML) algorithms. The objective is to assess and compare the effectiveness of Decision Trees, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Gradient Boosting models in determining the likelihood of loan approval or denial. Leveraging a dataset comprising historical loan application data, including applicant demographics, financial history, and loan characteristics, the study conducts rigorous analysis and interpretation of the models' performance. The results provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm, offering a nuanced understanding of their predictive capabilities in the context of loan status determination. This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge in the application of ML algorithms in the financial sector, presenting practical implications for institutions seeking to enhance their loan approval processes. Key words: Predictive Analysis, Machine Learning Algorithms, Loan Status, Comparative Study, Utilization

Challenges and Achievements of the Nanjing National Government's Fiat Currency Reform from 1935 to 1937

The Fiat Currency Reform in China holds a significant milestone in its financial history. In the 1930s, the Nanjing Nationalist government successfully tackled the deflation caused by the silver crisis and achieved national currency unification through currency reform. Simultaneously, this reform drove domestic economic development, preparing the nation for the subsequent resistance against Japanese aggression. Before this period, numerous scholars had examined currency reform. However, few have connected this policy and its profound impact on the current economic situation. This paper aims to study the currency reform by analyzing its historical context, specific measures, and its effects. It also summarizes its relevance to contemporary China's economy. Presently, China faces issues such as economic stagnation, a sluggish domestic market, and a heavy debt burden. The Chinese government can draw lessons from the currency reform by implementing policies like increased currency issuance and lowered interest rates to stimulate the market, attract foreign investment, and find a way forward for the future development of the Chinese economy.

Crowding in during the Seven Years’ War

We present a financial history of the Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) using a new dataset derived from the Bank of England minutes. We argue that the war and the associated actions of the Bank of England led to a transformation of the financial system. Additionally, while there was short-term crowding out of private investment when interest rates rose due to the issue of war-related government debt, in the long-run there was crowding in: government spending led to an increase in private sector investment.

Integrating blockchain into global finance: a case study of SWIFT's strategic collaboration with Chainlink

This study scrutinizes the strategic blueprint implemented by SWIFT in 2023, focusing on the integration of blockchain technology into the financial communication infrastructure. By conducting a systematic analysis, juxtaposed with current academic dialogues, the research reveals SWIFT's response to the emerging demands for secure, efficient, and collaborative financial transactions. The collaboration with Chainlink is highlighted as a practical move towards addressing the exigencies of enhanced cyber resilience and governance in the face of evolving technological landscapes. The study's findings illuminate the potential of SWIFT's approach to streamline the transition towards blockchain technology, minimizing the adaptation requirements for financial institutions, and suggesting a replicable model for widespread adoption. The relevance of this research extends beyond academic circles, offering insights into the adoption of blockchain technology at a critical juncture in financial history, with implications for improved transactional security and efficiency that benefit a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Regulatory bodies, financial entities, and consumers stand to gain from the advancements detailed in this study, which outlines a path for the integration of technology that promises a more cohesive, secure, and efficient global financial system. This research contributes to the literature by providing a nuanced understanding of blockchain's practical applications and sets the stage for future innovations in financial operations.

Credit Risk Prediction Based on Psychometric Data

In today’s financial landscape, traditional banking institutions rely extensively on customers’ historical financial data to evaluate their eligibility for loan approvals. While these decision support systems offer predictive accuracy for established customers, they overlook a crucial demographic: individuals without a financial history. To address this gap, our study presents a methodology for a decision support system that is intended to assist in determining credit risk. Rather than solely focusing on past financial records, our methodology assesses customer credibility by generating credit risk scores derived from psychometric test results. Utilizing machine learning algorithms, we model customer credibility through multidimensional metrics such as character traits and attitudes toward money management. Preliminary results from our prototype testing indicate that this innovative approach holds promise for accurate risk assessment.

Sovereignty and imperialism: International business, finance and the position of Sudan in the British empire

This article examines the relationship between Sudan and Egypt during the colonial period to explore how control over international business and finance integrated Sudan within the British empire. We examine how the locus of power and control over these economic factors began to change, and how this altered the position of Sudan. To do this we explore three areas. First, we examine how the field of international relations has considered the question of sovereignty. We use this to problematise how imperial relationships influence notions of sovereignty in the context of a colonial state. Secondly, we examine the business history of Sudan in relation to the structure of the Sudanese economy. Third, we explore how finance shaped the relationship between Sudan and the British empire. Finally, we discuss the implications of the business and financial history of Sudan in relation to the historiography of imperialism and coloniality in the MENA region.

AN INTER-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGY IN FINANCE - WHAT CAN HISTORY, LAW AND DATA SCIENCE TEACH US?

The year 2008 is etched in human history as the year of the ‘Global Financial Crises’. Post the crises, Historians and financial commentators alike rushed to impute blame. Some blamed securitizations, some the banks and some Lehman Brothers and AIG. However, in the midst of all of this humbug, a key epicentre of the crises escaped academic scrutiny; ‘Automation Technology’. The paper therefore aims to present an alternative view of financial history; one which impleads ‘automation technology in finance’ i.e., Risk Modelling Algorithms and RegTech. However, the underlying aim of this paper is to make a case against systemic automation bias in finance and to achieve that end, the paper employs an inter-disciplinary approach and uses history, law and data science to show case the multifarious perils of using automation technology blindfold in finance whilst also proposing possible solutions such as the incorporating of design thinking and systems theory in finance. Expired data sets, human assumptions, turning code in law, and a lack of standardized financial semantics as but some of these ‘perils’. On the law front; it presents a twofold challenge under constitutional and anti-trust law and aims to reconcile law and technology. Lastly the paper aims to guide regulators by categorizing multiple stages of technological complexity and recommends application of different regulatory approaches to regulating automation. Therefore, the paper shall maintain a ‘solution’ oriented approach throughout.

‘What if it’s Not a Ship?’: Reading the Monster Octopus in Jordan Peele’s Nope

The article argues that the alien monster of Jordan Peele’s Nope (2022) should be read as part of the long legacy of capitalist monster octopuses, and that identification and recognition of the monster octopus in this context allows for a greater understanding of Peele’s specifically gothic critique of capitalism within the film. The article reviews the history of the monster octopus in literature, art, cinema, and political cartoon, outlines Nope’s relationship to and development of these earlier texts, and then examines how the film uses the monster octopus to highlight capitalism as a monstrous system that we can neither survive nor afford to look away from. Critical perspectives explored in the article include Gothic Studies, Financial History, and Critical Race Theory, and Nope is examined as an example of the Economic Humanities in contemporary horror cinema.

Exchange Journalism from the Position of Behavioral Finance: Economic Thinking of a Stock Market Speculator in the Beginning of the 20th Century

Introduction. Modern financial theory still wonders the degree of behavioral factors influence on the financial assets pricing. We assume that it necessary to consider this problem within the framework of historical and economic science, since exchange prices are widely used in modern research as a historical source. Turning to the materials of professional stock exchange journalism, in this article we sought to determine how market participants described the pricing mechanism and how their market behavior were built in accordance with these analytical settings. Materials and Methods. We chose the book “Political, economic and financial issues of recent times” as our main source. That work includes analytical articles by I. P. Manus (1860–1918), a well-known stock speculator who made a millionth fortune on the Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange. Results. I. P. Manus’s articles demonstrate how the practice of economic analysis of financial markets combines a rational assessment of the financial results with taking into account “inefficient”, speculative price factors. In our source we trace the idea of uncertainty that cannot be overcome by formal analysis methods. All of that actualizes the need to use the methodology of behavioral finance when working with financial history materials. Discussion and Conclusion. We believe that it is not entirely correct for our material to draw a rigid methodological boundary between “behavioral” and “rational”. If we use the terminology of social history, it is much more effective to consider these concepts in their complex interaction, which forms a special “frame” of financial practice of the early 20th century.

Pembangunan Jaringan Transportasi di Lampung (1859 -1927)

The development of transportation networks has been an important factor in accelerating economic and trade progress in Lampung and southern Sumatra since the second decade of the 20th century. The development of transportation facilities has changed the centers of economic activity and settlements in the Lampung region from being centered around rivers to roads and railways. This article discusses the development of transport networks to support the changes in the Lampung region from the mid-19th century to the third decade of the 20th century. This study also explains the development of transport facilities in creating trans Java-Sumatra economic integration during the colonial period. This study aimed to reconstruct the financial history and transport networks of the Lampung region. This study provides a perspective on forming the trans-Sumatra transport network that made Lampung known as the "Gateway of Sumatra.” The study on "The Development of Transportation Network in Lampung (1859-1927)" was prepared using a historical method that included four stages of work: heuristics, verification, interpretation, and historiography. The development of integrated transport facilities in the Lampung region since the end of the war in 1856 has changed various aspects of the lives of the Lampung people. This study showed that the river has no longer become an essential part of the life of the Lampung people since the mid-19th century. Settlement patterns and economic activity centers located on the riverside began to change following the road and railway lines that were formed later. Keywords: transportation network; Lampung; Zuid-Sumatra spoorwagen; Dutch East Indies transportation system; modernization of the Dutch East Indies

Ming-Era Remittance Systems and Standard Cash in the Xingshi Yinyuan Zhuan

Abstract The pre-modern Chinese novel Xingshi yinyuan zhuan provides a wealth of information on the use of silver and copper cash in the economy of the late Ming dynasty. An analysis of the text reveals that there was no mechanism for remote remittance in the modern financial sense during this period. Therefore, it is necessary to reexamine several research works which have claimed the existence of remote remittance in financial history studies. Upon scrutinizing the various types of standard cash minted from the Jiajing to Chongzhen eras, it is evident that the popular “yellow-fringed coin” referred to in the Xingshi yinyuan zhuan was actually an umbrella term that encompassed both yellow coins and lathed-rim coins. Furthermore, the decimal conversion coins mentioned in the text that were withdrawn from the market due to unusability were most likely the decuple coins in the Tianqi era universal currency. The political incompetence of the late Ming period also caused the common people to reject the universal currency of the period, which was more valuable than the universal currency of previous periods.