Economic Collapse Research Articles

The State Of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) In Nigeria And Implications To National Security: Northwest And North Central In Focus

The ongoing insurgency and banditry in northern Nigeria and the government's harsh attempts to put it down have resulted in a wave of refugees and internally displaced people. Increase in population density and the migration of displaced people into places that are thought to be relatively quiet are prominently causing significant security concerns. With particular reference to the city of Ilorin, this study investigates the role of internally displaced people and community concerns in connection to national security and their repercussions. The study showed that the state's failure to provide security and deal with residents' socioeconomic problems contributed to the instability that drove large population displacement. Losses of life, insecurity, population relocation, intolerance toward other ethnic and religious groups, the operation of the militant groups and most importantly economic disasters are the consequences of these unfavorable tendencies, as this article has discovered. The findings of this study shows that the government's response to the situation of internally displaced people in the nation has been patchy, with no long-term fix in sight. Additionally, the dilemma of internally displaced people severely impedes the region's growth. This paper consequently promotes the establishment of offices for these displaced people's representatives by including the affairs of internally displaced people at the local government level. As an option to dealing with the problem of internally displaced people in the nation, increasing funding for national security among residents would improve security in Ilorin metropolis.

Financial insecurity and mental well-being: experiences of parents amid the lebanese economic crisis

BackgroundThis study investigates the impact of financial insecurity on the mental well-being and stress levels of parents in Lebanon amid the country’s severe economic crisis. The context of Lebanon’s economic collapse, coupled with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Beirut port explosion, has exacerbated financial and psychological distress among the population. This research aims to understand the correlation between financial instability and parental stress, identifying key factors contributing to mental health challenges in this demographic.MethodsEmploying a quantitative research approach, data was collected through an online survey from 785 parents from different backgrounds in Lebanon. The survey incorporated sociodemographic questions, the InCharge Financial Distress/Financial Well-Being Scale (IFDFW), and the Arabic version of the Parental Stress Scale (PSS). Data analysis was conducted using SPSS version 25.ResultsFindings showed significant correlations between high levels of parental stress and factors such as age (r = 0.071, p = 0.047) and lower education levels. Notably, refugees residing in Lebanon exhibited higher stress levels compared to Lebanese parents (mean stress score: 51.73 vs. 45.71, p < 0.001). Similarly, employed participants exhibited higher stress levels compared to the nonworking (mean stress score: 46.75 vs. 44.60, p = 0.003). A significant inverse association was found between financial well-being and parental stress (r=-0.216, p < 0.001), emphasizing the profound impact of economic instability on mental health.ConclusionsThis study highlights the adverse effects of financial insecurity on parents’ mental health, primarily during a period of economic instability, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted support interventions. These findings contribute to the literature on economic crises and mental health, providing a basis for future research and policy development in similar contexts.

Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters

We develop a dynamic computational network model of the banking system where fire sales provide the amplification mechanism of financial shocks. Each period a finite number of banks offers a large, but finite, number of loans to households. Banks with excess liquidity also offer loans to other banks with insufficient liquidity. Thus, each period an interbank loan market is endogenously formed. Bank assets are hit by idiosyncratic shocks drawn from a thin tailed distribution. The uneven distribution of shocks across banks implies that each period there are banks that become insolvent. If insolvent banks happen also to be heavily indebted to other banks, their liquidation can trigger other bank failures. We find that the distribution across time of the growth rate of banking assets has a ‘fat left tail’ that corresponds to rare economic disasters. We also find that the distribution of initial shocks is not a perfect predictor of economic activity; that is some of the uncertainty is endogenous and related to the structure of the interbank network.

Book Review: Biosecurity, Economic Collapse, the State to Come: Political Power in the Pandemic and Beyond by Boukalas, Christos

Book Review: <i>Biosecurity, Economic Collapse, the State to Come: Political Power in the Pandemic and Beyond</i> by Boukalas, Christos

Human cellular restriction factors that target SARS-CoV-2 replication

Millions of people have died and a worldwide economic catastrophe has been brought on by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Infections caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may presently be treated with less than 10 antiviral drugs such as Remdesivir. The need for medical intervention due to sickness has led to unprecedented research efforts to study the biology of coronaviruses. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood that coronaviruses will cause pandemics in the future. All viruses cannot replicate optimally due to host restriction factors. Given that they are genetically more stable than viral targets and may be shared by similar viruses, these antiviral host factors provide appealing targets for antiviral treatment. The identification of antiviral host factors that are a component of human innate immunity and that prevent the completion of the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle has been made possible by the deployment of several “omics” technologies. In this review, we provide an overview of the antiviral host factors that limit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in this, which were mostly discovered using functional genetic and interactome screening. Important cellular mechanisms for the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle are covered. Finally, we highlight host restriction factors that could be targeted by clinically approved molecules and the induction of these factors as potential antiviral therapies for COVID-19.

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION UNDER MILITARY THREATS: UKRAINIAN EXPERIENCE OF ADAPTING TO CRISIS SITUATIONS

The article examines the Ukrainian experience of public administration under conditions of military threat as of 2022-2024. The key challenges faced by Ukraine during the full-scale war are analyzed, including the destruction of critical infrastructure and the need to ensure uninterrupted provision of public services. Special attention is paid to the digitization of public administration, which played a decisive role in maintaining the stability of state institutions. The role of the «Action» platform and other innovative solutions that enabled interaction between citizens and the government in crisis conditions is described. The impact of decentralization on the ability of local authorities to respond to the challenges of war has been studied. The interaction with international partners within the framework of the SIGMA program, which is aimed at providing support in the reform of public administration with a course towards European integration, is characterized. A comparative analysis of the Ukrainian experience with other European countries that faced large-scale crises was carried out, and unique aspects of the Ukrainian model of adaptation were revealed. The article analyzes strategies for the restoration and modernization of the state administration of Ukraine in crisis conditions. Attention is focused on the interaction between the state and corporate sectors to maintain economic activity even in conditions of active hostilities. The role of business relocation to safer regions and the influence of state support on the stabilization of the labor market and the economy are outlined. Programs aimed at restoring infrastructure and vital services in cooperation with international partners are mentioned. The experience of implementing temporary solutions to ensure the basic needs of the population is described. It examines the impact of international aid and financial support through IMF and World Bank programs that helped maintain budget stability and avoid economic collapse. The perspectives of public administration during Ukraine's integration into European structures and further strengthening of public administration are highlighted. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of public administration in the post-war period, the solution of socio-economic problems, the restoration of infrastructure and the attraction of investments. Strategic directions for reforming public administration for the future are proposed, taking into account the experience of the war and cooperation with international institutions.

Conceptualizing National Security in an Era of Great Power Rivalry: Implications for International Economic Law

AbstractUntil recently, the national security exception in investment and trade was understood in terms of defense against military invasion or attack and possibly extendable to economic collapse. However, national security is increasingly understood far beyond the classical contours of territorial integrity. Driven primarily by the China-U.S. hegemonic competition, the new conceptualization is exemplified in a dramatic expansion in U.S. investment and trade measures based upon conceptualizing national security as encompassing threats to a fusion of interrelated spheres of national strength including economic, technological, and ideological power. Moreover, the U.S. now understands security as the retention of superiority in an array of power spheres and encompasses denying China access to emerging technologies. China has similarly expanded her definition of security which is often referenced as “national interests” and embraces political stability (Party dominance), social stability, ideological security, and the defense of Chinese overseas interests, all of which lie far outside the classical definition of security. The untethered expansion in both the U.S. and Chinese conceptualization of security raises significant ramifications for the international economic architecture. As the guardrails of security are abandoned in pursuit of policy goals, a potentially overly broad and excessive notion of security risks deepening several overlapping perils to the current international legal landscape. The focus of this article is on the expansion of the national security exception in investment and trade and potential implications arising from an unfettered expansion.

Using Decision Tree Technique to Predict the Financial Collapse of Iraqi Private Banks: An Applied Study

Predicting the Financial Collapse (FC) using modern technologies and scientific methods for Iraqi private banks is considered an early warning to detect their failure in the future. Therefore, these proposals, represented by scientific methods and modern technologies, are submitted to the specialized bodies represented by (the Central Bank of Iraq) in order to present them to the banks in the research sample to raise their capacity through the use of modern technologies and in order to adopt them as a scientific basis for predicting the FC. The following will be followed: Evaluating the performance of banks and classifying them based on the Camels standard (CS) and predicting the FC based on modern technologies (by relying on the decision tree algorithm). The research relied on the deductive approach to complete the theoretical aspect and the applied (experimental) approach to complete the practical aspect. The researcher also processed and prepared the data and then evaluated the performance of banks and classified them based on the CS equations consisting of five indicators and on the averages of these results as inputs for prediction using DT. Different computer programs were also adopted, as the Excel program was used to unload the data, the (SPSS) program to apply the equations, and the (Matlab) program to predict modern technologies. The most prominent conclusions reached by the research are as follows: Modern technologies represented by decision trees are characterized by providing more accurate information

ІННОВАЦІЙНІ ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКІ ПРАКТИКИ ДИДЖИТАЛІЗАЦІЇ ЯК КЛЮЧОВИЙ ЧИННИК ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ В УМОВАХ ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ВИКЛИКІВ

The purpose of the article is to develop a concept for implementing innovative European digitalization practices as a key factor in ensuring socio-economic security in the context of global challenges. Using the methods of risk-oriented approach, system analysis and modelling, the ways of using innovative European digitalization practices are considered. Research results: 1. The problems that arise in the modern analysis of the relationship between digitalization and socio-economic security are diagnosed. 2. The directions of technology development that can significantly improve socio-economic security are analyzed. Global challenges, such as pandemics, economic crises, and climate change, can significantly affect the processes of digitalization and their impact on socio-economic security. The scientific novelty of the study is that European digitalization practices are an important tool in ensuring socio-economic security in the face of global challenges, and therefore it is important to explore the latest approaches that can be offered for sustainable development.It has been proven that AI can analyze large amounts of data to predict economic crises, natural disasters, or social conflicts, allowing governments and companies to prepare for possible challenges in advance; using AI to optimize production, logistics, and resource management helps reduce costs and increase economic resilience. Cloud solutions provide access to important resources and services from anywhere in the world, which ensures the uninterrupted operation of businesses and government agencies in case of emergencies. Cloud platforms provide effective management of large amounts of data, which is necessary for strategic decision-making. The practical significance of the study is to overcome key challenges and use opportunities for further implementation of innovative European digitalization practices as a key factor in ensuring socio-economic security in the face of global challenges. The use of innovative European practices has a significant potential to accelerate the achievement of the SDGs but requires taking into account possible risks and challenges.

Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios

After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.

Sowing the Seeds of Financial Crises: Endogenous Asset Creation and Adverse Selection

Abstract What sows the seeds of financial crises, and what policies can help avoid them? I model the interaction between the ex-ante production of assets and ex-post adverse selection in financial markets. Positive shocks that increase market prices exacerbate the production of low-quality assets and can increase the likelihood of a financial market collapse. The interest rate and the liquidity premium are endogenous and depend on the functioning of financial markets as well as the total supply of assets (private and public). Optimal policy balances the economy's liquidity needs ex-post with the production incentives ex-ante, and it can be implemented with three instruments: government bonds, asset purchase programs, and transaction taxes. Public liquidity improves incentives but implies a higher deadweight loss than private market interventions. Optimal policy does not rule out private market collapses but mitigates the fluctuations in total liquidity.

"Vinnugleðin hefur tapast, nú er bara álag og erfitt og lítil gleði" - starfsumhverfi opinberra starfsmanna á tímum efnahagsþrenginga

Árið 2008 markaði upphaf mikils samdráttarskeiðs um heim allan og Ísland var eitt af fyrstu löndunum í Evrópu sem alþjóðakreppan náði til. Áhrifa kreppunnar gætti víða í samfélaginu og þó hún hafi komi harðar niður á einkageiranum hafði hún einnig mikil áhrif í opinbera geiranum, ekki síst hjá sveitarfélögunum. Tilgangur rannsóknarinnar var að komast að því hvernig starfsfólk sveitarfélaga greindi frá starfsánægju, álagi, starfsöryggi, ánægju með stjórnun vinnustaðarins og umhyggju stjórnenda fyrir heilsu og líðan starfsfólks tveimur, þremur og fimm árum eftir efnahagshrunið. Auk þess var skoðað hvort þættir í starfsumhverfinu, auk persónubundinna þátta, geti spáð fyrir um líkur á starfsánægju. Notað var blandað rannsóknarsnið (spurningalistakannanir og rýnihópaviðtöl). Niðurstöðurnar sýndu lækkandi hlutfall þeirra sem voru ánægðir í starfi eftir því sem lengra leið frá efnahagshruninu, einkum vegna sparnaðaraðgerða stjórnenda. Starfsaðstæður versnuðu verulega að mati þátttakenda og mátti sjá birtingarmyndir þess í fækkun starfsfólks, auknu vinnuálagi, minna starfsöryggi, meiri óánægju með stjórnun og minni umhyggju stjórnenda fyrir heilsu og líðan starfsfólks, sérstaklega á vinnustöðum þar sem uppsagnir höfðu orðið. Uppsagnir á vinnustað var besta spágildið fyrir starfsánægju (OR=0,590), þannig að á vinnustöðum þar sem uppsagnir höfuð orðið var mun minni starfsánægja en á öðrum vinnustöðum. Einnig kom í ljós að aðrir þættir í starfsumhverfinu (umhyggja stjórnenda fyrir heilsu og líðan starfsmanna OR=1,349; ánægja með stjórnun vinnustaðarins OR=1,345; starfsöryggi OR=1,221 og vinnuálag OR=0,801) höfðu allir marktæk áhrif á starfsánægju. Mikilvægt er að stjórnendur hafi vakandi auga fyrir starfstengdri líðan á vinnustaðnum, sérstaklega á samdráttartímum, og þá ekki einungis meðal þeirra starfshópa sem hafa orðið verst úti heldur einnig þeirra sem að jafnaði eru taldir búa við mikið starfsöryggi, eins og starfsfólk sveitarfélaga.

Invasive brown algae (Sargassum spp.) as a potential source of biocontrol against Aedes aegypti

Influxes of sargassos are responsible for economic and environmental disasters in areas where they bloom, especially in regions whose main income relies on tourism and with limited capacity for sanitation and public health response. A promising way of valorization would be to convert this incredible biomass into tools to fight the deadly vector mosquito Aedes aegypti. In the present study, we generated hydrolates and aqueous extracts from three main Sargassum morphotypes identified in Guadeloupe (French West Indies): Sargassum natans VIII, Sargassum natans I and Sargassum fluitans. We conducted a chemical characterization and a holistic evaluation of their potential to induce toxic and behavioral effects in Ae. aegypti. Despite the low insecticidal potential observed for all the extracts, we found that S. natans VIII and S. fluitans hydrolates deterred oviposition, induced contact irritancy and stimulated blood feeding behavior in host seeking Ae. aegypti females, while aqueous extracts from S. natans I and S. fluitans deterred both blood feeding behavior and oviposition. Chemical characterization evidenced the presence of phenylpropanoid, polyphenols, amino acids and esters. Thus, Sargassum spp. aqueous extracts and hydrolates could be used to manipulate Ae. aegypti behavior and be valorized as control tools against this mosquito.

The Byzantine Insular Countryside in the Early Middle Ages (ca. 600-ca.900): The Cases of Sicily, Cyprus, and Crete in (partial) Light of Environmental Archaeology

ABSTRACT This paper provides an overview of rural surveys and environmental archaeology studies on Sicily, Cyprus and Crete during the Byzantine Empire. It re-evaluates traditional interpretations of agricultural settlement patterns, ecosystems and populations from Late Antiquity to the early Middle Ages (late sixth to late ninth century). The prevailing narrative that these islands were devastated by Arab incursions, leading to widespread depopulation, economic collapse and abandonment of rural sites in favour of fortified hilltop settlements, is questioned. Instead, the study employs a comparative and interdisciplinary approach, combining environmental and climatic data with historical and archaeological evidence. This method offers a more nuanced understanding of how insular rural societies adapted to changing environmental and human conditions during the Byzantine Empire's transition from an economically unified region to a fragmented Medieval Mediterranean. The findings highlight the resilient nature of land use and rural settlement patterns amidst the transformation of the empire's political, military and administrative structures.

Post Danmark: More than Just Another Serial Infringer

The Danish Postal incumbent’s, Post Danmark, struggle to acclimatize to a market without special rights has yielded epic competition cases such as Post Danmark I and Post Danmark II. While it is tempting to label Post Danmark as a serial infringer, it is fundamentally a company that was slow in accepting that letter mail presented a dying business case and viewed other services as being merely and capable of being priced accordingly. The extreme fall in letter volumes has made this position untenable, explaining the company’s financial collapse and persistent clashes with competition law. Studies of Post Danmark’s ‘troublesome’ relationship with competition law offer insights into the treatment of multi-product companies under competition law the need to police their allocation of costs and the consequences of failing in this.

What does it take to offer high-quality, community-based, accessible mental health care in Lebanon?

Background: Armed conflict, economic collapse, the 2020 explosion, the COVID-19 pandemic, and persistent political and social instability have had severe impact on mental health in Lebanon. Aim: To highlight the critical elements for setting up a free community-based mental health care centre in Lebanon. Methods: Following the Beirut blast in 2020, a non-government organization started providing free, essential, personcentred, and holistic mental health care to residents in Lebanon through a multidisciplinary team of psychiatrists, psychologists, social workers, and mental health nurses. Results: During its first year of operation, the health centre provided 5392 free mental health consultations to 590 beneficiaries. Majority (67%) of the beneficiaries were female, and nearly half (45%) were aged 18–24 years. The most prevalent mental health disorders were major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder. Beneficiaries self-reported a 70% improvement in depression and a 76% improvement in anxiety after 3 months of treatment. Conclusion: Based on our experience, we advocate the community-based model as an effective approach to delivering mental health interventions and recommend a continuous evaluation of its impact in community settings.

Monitoring Poverty in a Data‐Deprived Environment: The Case of Lebanon

AbstractThis paper addresses the lack of data and limited statistical capacity in the Middle East and North Africa, particularly amid Lebanon's economic collapse. We apply a novel data augmentation technique to analyze poverty when traditional income data are limited or unavailable. By adapting existing methods, we recover continuous income distributions from interval data and derive dominance conditions for such data, accounting for non‐response. The proposed approach enables robustness checks by estimating the bounds of admissible cumulative distribution functions. Our empirical analysis uses Lebanese data to perform first‐order dominance tests on these bounds, highlighting the importance of the approach. We demonstrate how alternative data sources can be leveraged for essential poverty analysis.

The health situation in the cities of Southern Kurdistan in the nineteenth century

The content of this research talks about the health situation in the cities of southern Kurdistan in the nineteenth century, which its population was suffering from poverty, back wardness illiteracy, destruction, high taxes rates and bad political conditions, due to the bad economic, social and political circumstances, beside these, a variety of dangerous diseases like (plague, cholera, malaria, fever, diarrhea and vomiting.) had spread in (Sulaimani, Kirkuk, Hawler, Ramanduz, Amedi) durnng the years (1820, 1821, 1830, 1831,1832, 1845, 1865, 1871, 1889, 1900 …), which caused great economic, social, political losses and health disasters. sometimes they caused the death of nearly half of these cities population. Low health awareness and lack of health service forced the inhabitants of these areas to resort to alternative medicine, magic and sorcery and the shrine of the righteous. The indifference and neglecting of the health sector by Ottoman Empire caused frequent health disasters, despite the fact that the Ottoman state had opened several hospitals and quarantine centers in both cities Sulaimani and Kirkukein the seventieth of the nineteenth century , but they were not provided enough budget as compared to the military sectors , the laste money was allocated for the helth sector, no hospitals or governmental health centers were found in cities like Hawler , Koya , Rawandz and the Amedi tell the beginning of the twenentieth century.

Perdagangan Manusia Lintas Negara di indonesia

Human trafficking is a very serious problem in Indonesia even though the country has endorsed and disciplined the National Action Plan and to form a notion of duty to stop this crime. The phenomenon of human trafficking has become a social fact besides the economic crisis and natural disasters. The low level of education, the limited employment, free relations and acts of harmony in a family are some of the factors causing human trade. Because human trafficking involves an international criminal network, with the participation of all stakeholders through a systematic approach and strengthening the network is a must in preventing and eradicating this. In providing granting legal protection to victims of trafficking in persons, especially restitution issues have been regulated in Article 48 to Article 50 of Law Number 21 Year 2007, also regulated in Article 35 of Law Number 26 of 2000 concerning the Human Rights Court regulates the protection of human rights for human welfare. According to the 1999 Law on Human Rights, as stated in Article 1 states that human rights (HAM) is a set of rights inherent in the nature and existence of humans as almighty gods and is a gift that must be respected, highly respected, and protected by the state, law, government, and everyone for the sake of honor and protection of human dignity.

The Financial Crisis Affecting the Construction Sector

Today's world is witnessing continuous development, particularly in the construction sector, which is meeting the rising population and their need for essential facilities; this is one of the reasons why construction is witnessing such development. Different crises significantly affect this sector, including the financial crisis in different countries. This paper identifies the financial crises, their categories, and the reasons for appearing them. Inflation, currency exchange fluctuations, and the drop in global oil prices are the most important reasons for the emergence of external financial crises, especially in Iraq, which considers oil an important economic resource for its budget. The unexpected global financial events led to an economic collapse that affected the construction sector. Many large projects in Iraq have been put on hold as a result of these conditions due to the country's lack of resources to address these crises. This paper aims to study and identify potential crises and potential responses and mitigation strategies for each crisis stage.