Field Of International Security Research Articles

New Analytics of International Relations: System Forecast of Cold War’s Outcomes

Systemic forecasts of international relations evolution for quite a long time were quite a rare phenomenon. The main reason for this is the lack of independent of authors' ideological and political predilections reliable analysts, and this fact determines relevance of the current study. The main goal of the article is to develop new analytics that allows prediction of long-term trends in the evolution of international relations world system. Therefore, the algebra of relations and the corresponding section of predicate logic are used. The authors proved sixteen basic theorems on the properties of the world system. As the initial opposition, a pair of relations dependence-independence was chosen. The empirical conditions of the current state of affairs make it possible from the outset to exclude from the analysis the state of independence of states as a long-term factor of international politics. It was established that the world system of international relations can be strictly in one of three states – conflict, synergistic or antagonistic. The authors also carried out the forecast of the world states system dynamics after the end of the Cold War. In regards with impossibility of achieving by the international relations world system in the next thirty years any of two possible attractors – states of synergism and antagonism, predicts – its stable oscillation between these points of stability until at least the middle of the nineteenth century is forecasted. In practice, this means, depending on the direction of the trend, the emergence of a variety of waves of instability, primarily in the field of international security

Analiza i ocena skuteczności realizacji dochodów podatkowych z VAT w Polsce w okresie od stycznia 2005 r. do kwietnia 2017 r.

The article provides some insight into expenditure in the field of internal security in the state budget based on the example of Polish and French experience with a focus on effectiveness of expenditure in the periods of eight and ten years, respectively. The choice of the research subject was based on the assumption that the policy for maintaining public order and security should be implemented in a similar way in democratic countries, which creates more opportunities for comparison. The analysis of the sample of expenditure is to demonstrate whether consistency was maintained in the implementation of activities. For each country, a different test period was adopted, resulting from the introduction of activity-based budget. Thus, in France, the analysis begins in 2006 and in Poland in 2008.

Planowanie wieloletnie w zakresie wydatków na bezpieczeństwo wewnętrzne – doświadczenia Polski i Francji na wybranych przykładach

The article provides some insight into expenditure in the field of internal security in the state budget based on the example of Polish and French experience with a focus on effectiveness of expenditure in the periods of eight and ten years, respectively. The choice of the research subject was based on the assumption that the policy for maintaining public order and security should be implemented in a similar way in democratic countries, which creates more opportunities for comparison. The analysis of the sample of expenditure is to demonstrate whether consistency was maintained in the implementation of activities. For each country, a different test period was adopted, resulting from the introduction of activity-based budget. Thus, in France, the analysis begins in 2006 and in Poland in 2008.

La política brasileña de ciberseguridad como estrategia de liderazgo regional/The brazilian cybersecurity policy as a strategy of regional leadership

El artículo analiza la estructuración de la política de ciberseguridad de Brasil entre los años de 2003 y 2016 como componente de su estrategia de inserción internacional y proyección de liderazgo en el Sul Global. El campo de la gobernanza de la Internet, de lo cual la ciberseguridad es parte, ofrece al país una oportunidad de relativo bajo costo de protagonismo en la elaboración de normas internacionales. Analizase documentos principales de esa política y argumentase que ella es parte de los esfuerzos de proyección del soft power del país en el campo de la seguridad internacional, pero que sus incoherencias pueden afectar y hasta mismo comprometer esta estrategia. Por fin, trazase breves proyecciones para esta política ante los cambios políticos en Brasil.AbstractThe article analyzes the structuration of Brazil’s cybersecurity policy between the years of 2003 and 2016 as a component of its strategy of international insertion and projection of leadership in the Global South. The Internet governance field, of which cybersecurity is a part, offers the country a relatively low-cost opportunity of protagonism in the elaboration of international norms. It analyzes cornerstone documents of this policy and argues that it is a part of the country’s efforts to project its soft power in the field of international security, but that its incoherencies can affect and even compromise the strategy. Finally, it draws brief projections to this policy in face of political changes in Brazil.

Прогноз угроз международной безопасности России в 2017 г.

The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every situation and a list of conditions of its occurrence. The objective of the forecast is reduction of uncertainty of the future and the promotion of reasonable hypotheses about its likely scenarios. The forecast task is to help decision-makers, mentally put yourself in a situation in which realized one of the scenarios for the future and to encourage them to calculate their possible actions. In the preparation of the forecast two scenario analysis tools were used: the allocation of two key variables, the ratio of which determines the spectrum of the analyzed scenarios, and the key events method, which consists of several stages and allows to evaluate the prospect of implementing the scenario observed in real time. Authors conclude that the USA with the new president will be forced to choose between maintaining global posture and keeping order at home, and the EU will be absorbed by internal issues. In 2017 for Russia is important to keep the positive dynamics in the Transatlantic and Grand Eurasia regions, and in the Middle East. For this purpose it is necessary to ignore the provocations – mainly in Europe. The source of a new crisis may be NATO members discouraged by lack of attention to them by the USA or allies of Russia.

Effects of Socio-Cultural Developments of Gjakovar Society

Human being is nowadays experiencing the highest achievements in all domains of life. These developments entered in almost all human societies, even to the most isolated ones. This has also influenced that today’s societies differ significantly from the thousand-years-old traditional societies. Such radical transformations, did not only change the world outside, but they continue to change radically the most intimate aspects of personal daily life. These achievements on one hand represent great promises for the future, creating possibilities to access and communicate with the most remote places on the planet, while on the other hand these present security concerns. Part of these developments and transformations is also the Gjakovar society, which until this new century was distinguished for traditional and cultural organization, not only in Kosovo, but all over Albanian territories. However, the new flows of time development imposed the reorganization of society in this area. Certainly it had and continues to have its challenges, especially from its internal part. Transformation and the new developing flows dictated in weakening the secular traditions and cultural habits and embrace new ones. Although on one side it appears to be positive, on the other hand are emerging new concern occurrences that are creating volatility and organization instability, and putting the society of this region in crisis through socio-cultural aspect, especially in the field of internal security.

Parliamentary Diplomacy and the us Congress: The Case of the nato Parliamentary Assembly

This article analyses the history and practice of the involvement of the us Congress in inter-parliamentary cooperation and diplomacy, with a specific case study of its members’ involvement in the Parliamentary Assembly of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (nato pa), as a leading international parliamentary institution (ipi) in the field of international security. It argues that while members of Congress have participated in the activities of ipis in the past, they mostly focus on domestic affairs and are therefore less keen on engaging with ipis. Nevertheless, they do keep in close touch with transatlantic ipis. This is in line with us foreign policy, which places transatlantic relations at the top of the United States’ strategic interests. The article focuses on Congressional participation in the work of the nato pa before and during nato’s enlargement. It shows that Congress and its members can help the nato pa to play a visible role in transatlantic affairs.

The challenges of coordination in national security management – the case of the terrorist attack in Norway

The article addresses a ‘wicked problem’: Organizing for internal security and societal safety. It examines the central emergency and crisis management under the terrorist attack in Norway in July 2011, with a special focus on the coordinating role of the Ministry of Justice (MJ). Our analysis is based on an in-depth qualitative analysis of relevant official documents and interviews with government officials, using a structural-instrumental and a cultural-institutional perspective to understand outcomes. There is a consensus when it comes to diagnosing the problems, identified as fragmentation, pulverization of accountability and weak coordination arrangements. The organizational changes have been cautious and incremental, however. A gradual upgrading of the MJ as an overarching coordinating ministry does not challenge the existing principles of ministerial responsibility. Suggested solutions are beset with ambiguity and conflicts, and there is a mismatch between problems and available solutions. Points for practitioners Challenges of coordination are evident in modern public administration, related to both vertical and horizontal coordination, and particularly so within the field of internal security and crisis management. New Public Management (NPM)-related reforms have created further coordination problems, especially in policy areas and public services that cross sector boundaries. New arrangements, labeled post-NPM reforms, have tried to counter the alleged increasing fragmentation. The challenges are quite evident when it comes to crisis management, where a combination of organizing for coordination and flexibility is necessary. Major crises do not always lead to radical changes, however. Instrumental and formal changes are often mediated by the existing culture. The result is a rather hybrid and multi-layered modern public administration.

Women, gender, and international security

In August 2014, as Islamic State jihadists rampaged through Iraq and engaged in genocidal against non-Sunni Muslims, they kidnapped over 3000 Yazidi women and girls. A few months earlier, in May, Boko Haram extremists abducted over 200 schoolgirls in northern Nigeria, consistent with their larger and more systematic abduction campaign mirroring the tactics used by Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army. In both Iraq and Nigeria, abducted women and girls are believed to have been taken as wives, sex slaves, and/or servants for their captors. Part of a larger, global trend, these most recent episodes suggest an endemic quality to against women in zones of conflict and/or state weakness. From Bosnia to Rwanda, from Syria to Congo, and Iraq to Afghanistan, women and girls have become targets of indescribable brutality in the post-Cold War era, including killings, sexual violence, torture, and forced captivity. However, concurrent with these troubling trends of victimization, the last several decades have also seen important gains for women in the sphere of international security. Women have become more prominent in leadership roles at the community, state, and international levels, including in non-traditional spheres such as foreign policy and defence, and in places as diverse as Albania, Bangladesh, and Chile. This ascent of to borrow Sally Armstrong's phrase, has also been evident in policy innovations, including UN resolutions on war rape and sexual and on women, peace, and security (WPS), reaffirming the important role of women in international security. The rise in prominence of the gender perspective has also challenged alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to rethink how they engage in military interventions. Although its actions are still modest in scope, the alliance has invested in WPS initiatives and pushed its member states to submit progress reports to track implementation.In this context, the sixth annual workshop of the organization Women in International Security-Canada (WIIS-Canada), held in 2013 at the Canadian Forces College, focused on the complexity of the relationships between and among women, violence, and international security. The workshop considered four important aspects of this relationship-women as targets and victims of violence, women as agents of violence, women as scholars and analysts of violence, and women as policymakers and practitioners in the field of international security. Shedding light on these research themes is central to the mandate of WIIS-Canada, a network that was founded in 2008 to provide a platform for female scholars and practitioners in the fields of security and defence. Each year since the launch of WIIS-Canada, volunteers have organized workshops to support and showcase the important research and work that is done throughout the WIIS-Canada network. As our two contributors show, WIIS-Canada also strives to bridge the gap between academics and practitioners, encouraging policy-relevant research in the process.The two papers featured in this issue of International Journal-Deconstructing the 2012 Human Security Report: Examining narratives on wartime sexual violence by Roxanne Krystalli and Engendering two solitudes? Media representations of women in combat in Quebec and the rest of Canada by Krystel Chapman and Maya Eichler-bring to the fore the key elements of the overarching theme of the workshop and emphasize the importance of gender in contemporary international relations.Using the 2012 Human Security Report (HSR 2012) as a primary resource, Krystalli's paper asks why narratives about sexual matter, and how we can be more reflective about what we can and do know about wartime sexual violence, given the opportunities and limitations of conducting research in this field. Fully cognizant of the challenges associated with researching and analyzing wartime sexual violence, Krystalli, a practitioner and an academic, calls for more nuanced conceptualizations of sexualized violence, more systematic, evidencebased research, and greater responsibility on the part of those conducting research on this important and highly sensitive subject. …

2010年以来中美大国博弈态势探析 / An Analysis of the Big Game between China and the United States since 2010

林宏宇 张帅 【摘要】本文尝试对2010年以来中美两国在国际安全领域的大国博弈以及由此形成的中国国家安全环境负面化态势做出一个系统阐释。2010年中国GDP首次超过日本，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体，中国崛起不再是国际关系学者的纸上谈兵，而是确确实实的国际关系现状，这种状况客观上打破了东亚国际安全格局的平衡，对已有的安全结构造成有力冲击。深感“权力转移”之忧的美国试图以重返亚太（又称“再平衡”）战略来缓阻中国崛起的势头。此战略客观上极大刺激了东亚地区某些国家借美抗华的念头，它们试图以制造事端来“引美入亚”，希望美国“主持公道”。美国也愿借助这些国家对华挑衅来增强其再平衡战略的效果。面对某些东亚国家对华核心国家利益的挑战，和平崛起的中国不得不严峻应对，其后果是中国落个“四处树敌”、国家安全环境负面化的态势。但中国不会就此终结和平崛起之路，美国也不会轻易放弃其国际霸权，这就意味着中美此轮安全博弈会持续相当长一段时间，可能出现一段相当长时间的安全困境。然而主客观条件决定中美不会爆发新冷战，更不会爆发世界大战。面对挑战，中国不应采取同美国针锋相对的战略，而应在美国不威胁中国核心国家利益与安全的基础上，对内继续坚持以经济建设为中心，对外继续坚持“韬光养晦”和“不结盟”，努力构建中美新型大国关系，走出安全困境。 This paper attempts to make a systematic explanation of the big game that has unfolded between China and the United States since 2010 in the field of international security and led to a deterioration of China’s national security environment. In 2010, the GDP of China surpassed the GDP of Japan for the first time, and China became the second largest economic entity in the world, surpassed only by the U.S. The rise of China was no longer just empty talk of a few scholars in the field of international relations. On the contrary, the rebalancing of international security relations changed and shook the existing security architecture in East Asia. As a consequence, the U.S. tried to use a pivot/rebalancing strategy to corrode China’s rising momentum which objectively stimulated some of the countries in East Asia to oppose China with the help of the U.S. The U.S. also wanted to strengthen its rebalancing strategy’s effectiveness via these countries’ actions. In the face of the challenges from these countries on China’s core national interests, China had to take the consequences seriously. But China will continue to adhere to the path of its peaceful rise whereas the U.S. will not give up its international hegemony easily as well. This means that the Sino-U.S. game will continue for quite a long period of time as will the security dilemma. However, it will not lead to a new cold war, let alone the outbreak of an extensive world war between China and the U.S. In the face of challenges, China should not take on the same strategy as the U.S. Only if the U.S. does not threaten the core national interests and the security of China, China should focus on economics internally and externally adhering to the keeping a low profile and non-alignment principles. China should also strive towards building a new type of relationship between China and the U.S. so that the security dilemma can end.

Why China's Rise May Not Cause Major Power‐Transition War: A Review Essay

This article seeks to review these theoretical debates in light of recent empirical evidence. The two publications are selected for two reasons. First, China's Ascent is a collection of contributions made by leading scholars in the field of international security and is based on different optimistic perspectives on the question of China's rise. The second publication, Southeast Asia and the Rise of China, was more recently published. Based on some of the theoretical insights and empirical evidence presented by the authors in the two volumes, I argue that the Asia‐Pacific region is bound to remain stable and potentially more peaceful if and when China becomes a liberal democracy.

Russia and the Secession of Kosovo: Power, Norms and the Failure of Multilateralism

Theoretical debates about multilateralism positively juxtapose it to unilateralism or bilateralism, because it is seen as a natural ideational fit with the growth of global governance. The major schism on the concept is between normativists who emphasise shared values and the realists' concerns with strategic interactions and power asymmetries. The Kosovo crisis beginning in 1999 could be seen as the first major crisis of multilateralism in the international system after the end of the Cold War. It was a crisis about the role and interests of a hegemonic USA and a weakened Russia. As a case, Kosovo demonstrates the paradoxes and limitations of multilateralism in the field of international security, when there are different types and levels of multilateralism interacting. The US and EU leaderships saw Kosovo as essentially a regional problem which could be manipulated to rejuvenate and enhance Western multilateral cooperation in NATO. This view found support among an upper echelon of officials in the UN, surrounding Secretary-General Kofi Annan, which favoured a multilateral intervention in Kosovo as proof of commitment to the developing norm of ‘right to protect’. Russia, however, saw its multilateral engagement over Kosovo as a strategic interaction to counterbalance and compensate for its weakness vis-à-vis NATO. The multilateral interactions by these three parties appear to have deepened mistrust as the process failed to resolve the final status of Kosovo, leading to its unilateral declaration of independence in 2008. The case demonstrates the importance of shared interests for successful multilateral interactions.

Theorizing the Impact of Trust on Post-Agreement Negotiations: The Case of Franco-German Security Relations

AbstractIn this article we argue that trust is fundamental to post-agreement negotiations in the field of international security. We present our concept of interstate trust and discuss its relation to two core mechanisms of international cooperation: control and policy integration. Our main hypothesis is that growing trust reduces a dyad’s reliance on control and leads to intensified policy integration. To specify how the trust-control nexus and the trust-integration nexus structure post-agreement negotiations, we first assume that post-agreement negotiations are likely to follow interstate crises. Second, we theorize crisis reactions and differentiate between low-trust and high-trust situations. In low-trust situations, a crisis indicates a failure to control the actions of others. As a response, demands for institutional reform will stress new and improved control mechanisms. In high-trust situations, the trusting bias defuses most of the doubts about the other’s cooperative preferences and points to miscommunication as the principal issue. Therefore, negotiations will be about intensifying policy integration. States do so for three purposes: sustaining valuable integration, overcoming the crisis, and building trust. As a first plausibility probe for our argument, we look at post-agreement negotiations between France and Germany.

자기참조 가상 패리티 비트를 이용한 XOR기반의 고화질 정보은닉 기술

최근 들어 정보은닉기술에 대한 필요성이 많이 증가되고 있으며 국제치안, 군사 그리고 의료영상 등의 분야에서 그 예를 많이 볼 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 한 픽셀의 다수 MSB(MSBs: Most Significant Bits)의 Parity Bit를 이용하여 gray영상에 대해 정보를 은닉하는 방법을 제안한다. 스테가노그라피(Steganography) 분야에서 많은 연구들이 LSB 대체(Substitution), XOR연산을 채용하여 연구되어왔으며 궁극적인 목적은 낮은 복잡도와 높은 은닉용량, 동시에 화질의 저하를 최소화하는 것이다. 하지만 LSB 대체 방법은 높은 은닉용량을 가짐에도 불구하고 너무나 간단한 작업으로 인해 안전하지 못하다. 또한 XOR연산을 이용한 방법들은 픽셀 수 대비 약 75%의 은닉률을 달성하였다. 제안된 방법에서 각 픽셀의 LSB(Least Significant Bit)는 비밀메시지 1비트와 해당 픽셀의 7 MSBs의 Parity Bit와 XOR 연산된다. 제안한 방법은 대칭키 프로토콜의 개념을 스테가노그라피에 적용한 것이며 대칭키를 자기참조에 의해 생성하도록 하였다. 제시한 방법은 기존의 XOR방법들에 비해 은닉률이 25% 높으며 원본 대비 픽셀의 LSB 반전률이 약 6%정도 개선되는 효과를 보였다. Recently, Information Hiding Technology are becoming increasingly demanding in the field of international security, military and medical image This paper proposes data hiding technique utilizing parity checker for gray level image. many researches have been adopted LSB substitution and XOR operation in the field of steganography for the low complexity, high embedding capacity and high image quality. But, LSB substitution methods are not secure through it's naive mechanism even though it achieves high embedding capacity. Proposed method replaces LSB of each pixel with XOR(between the parity check bit of other 7 MSBs and 1 Secret bit) within one pixel. As a result, stego-image(that is, steganogram) doesn't result in high image degradation. Eavesdropper couldn't easily detect the message embedding. This approach is applying the concept of symmetric-key encryption protocol onto steganography. Furthermore, 1bit of symmetric-key is generated by the self-reference of each pixel. Proposed method provide more 25% embedding rate against existing XOR operation-based methods and show the effect of the reversal rate of LSB about 2% improvement.

From the Rapid Reaction Mechanism to the Instrument for Stability: The Empowerment of the European Commission in Crisis Response and Conflict Prevention

The European Union (EU) plays an increasing role in the field of international security with various instruments at its disposal, managed by several actors. This article analyses the underestimated role of one of these actors, namely the European Commission. Treating the EU as a form of security governance, it claims that the Commission has empowered its role in it from the Rapid Reaction Mechanism (RRM) to the Instrument for Stability (IfS). The first section presents a review of the existing literature in order to clarify the theoretical framework, which uses the EU security governance approach with sociological insights; and to sketch the historical background of the Commission’s role in crisis response and conflict prevention. Then, this contribution examines the Commission’s position from a relational perspective to demonstrate its gradual empowerment in the European security field. Finally, it emphasises the challenges facing the Commission and the new practices structuring EU security governance post-Lisbon.

Deeper and Wider than a Common Space: European Union-Russia Cooperation on Migration Management

Works that address European Union (EU)- Russia cooperation within the overarching project of the common space of freedom, security and justice (FSJ) often look at this 'space' as if it were regarded by both parties as a naturally coherent field, where cooperation had to be developed evenly in all of the sub-fields. Consequently, this misperception often leads to the conclusion that EU-Russia cooperation on issues of justice and home affairs is rather unsuccessful because, on one hand, there is still no visa-free regime and, on the other hand, developments in the sphere of human rights and judicial reforms in Russia are far from being satisfactory. This article argues that in order to better appreciate the results of EU-Russia cooperation in the field of internal security, one should not analyse it in connection with EU attempts to promote human rights and democracy in Russia. Such constructivist - and somewhat idealist - view has prevented many researchers from a more pragmatic assessment that would take into account some real achievements of this cooperation that fit well with the commonly defined interests and goals in the sphere of internal security and migration management in particular. This article shows that both partners have managed to achieve much of what has been planned in the sphere of migration management. Moreover, through this cooperation with Russia, the EU has a chance to promote one of its most internationally visible instruments (readmission agreements) in Central Asia - a region where EU's direct involvement has not been very successful.

Smart grid cyber security for Europe

In Europe, environmental and economic considerations are driving a revolution in power transmission and distribution. Specifically of interest to this paper, utility companies are increasingly using information and communication technology (ICT) to increase the efficiency and reliability of the grid, as well as to incorporate smaller-scale sources of intermittent wind and solar power into our electricity supply. This should have a positive effect on Europe's energy policy objectives. However, developments in the field of international security have made clear that increased reliance on ICT within the electricity sector will create new vulnerabilities that may undermine these gains.This paper argues that the European Union (EU) has the opportunity to mitigate these vulnerabilities by virtue of its strengthening regulatory position in the European market, and its record of promoting energy technology research. However, the organization will need to act now in recognizing that cyber security as an essential dimension of its energy policy. This paper recommends that the Commission acts now to appoint a coordinator to accelerate the adoption of sensitive institutional changes in this vein. It also suggests that the EU would benefit from cooperation with the United States—a country with strong cyber capabilities that would complement the European program.

WMD proliferation: reforming the security sector to meet the threat

The threat of terrorists using WMD is not new, but the current expansion of these groups' regional networks means that no state can consider itself immune from the threat of terrorist attack or proliferation activity. States must make improvements in their security sectors to prevent the future use of WMD by terrorists. WMD Proliferation is the first book to address how nations should reform their security sectors to counter the threat of WMD use by terrorists. Schreier evaluates the likelihood that terrorists will use each type of WMD and examines the tactical, strategic, and ideological issues involved with each type. He analyzes why terrorists have not used unconventional weapons more than they have, and concludes that the answer lies in understanding both the terrorists'capabilities and motives and how both factors limit the likelihood of terrorist attacks with unconventional weapons. Schreier also presents a list of criteria that a state must meet to be optimally prepared and organized to counter threats posed by the proliferation of WMD, terrorism, and organized crime. WMD Proliferation will be of interest to legislators, policymakers, scholars, students in the field of international security and international relations, and anyone concerned about intelligence and terrorism policy.

O papel de síntese da escola de Copenhague nos estudos de segurança internacional

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a contribuição da Escola de Copenhague para os estudos de segurança internacional, por meio do exame de sua relação com as teorias das Relações Internacionais e seus desdobramentos no campo de segurança internacional. Para cumpri-lo, realiza-se uma breve contextualização da literatura acadêmica mainstream dos estudos de segurança desde a gênese do campo, com vistas a melhor se compreender o impacto do construtivismo na área a partir da década de 1990. Posteriormente, procede-se a uma breve revisão dos debates realizados tanto entre racionalistas e construtivistas como entre as variações do construtivismo, com vistas a situar o trabalho do grupo de Copenhague nas discussões da área. Apresenta-se, por fim, um panorama da produção da Escola de Copenhague, sustentado em dois eixos principais: (a) as contribuições que mais se destacaram; e (b) os debates suscitados, com as críticas recebidas e as respostas fornecidas pelos autores. Conclui-se que uma das principais contribuições dos autores de Copenhague para os estudos de segurança internacional diz respeito ao papel de síntese de seu trabalho em relação aos debates mais amplos realizados no campo de teoria das Relações Internacionais e ao debate sobre segurança internacional no pós-Guerra Fria.

Preferences, Information and the Deterrence Game

The doctrine of deterrence was a leading theory within the field of international security throughout the Cold War period. At one time it was regarded as social science's most influential theoretical innovation. At least three different approaches to the study of deterrence were developed during the Cold War period. They include the game theoretical approach pioneered by Thomas Schelling in the 1960s, a psychological approach developed by Robert Jervis in the 1970s, and a case study-based approach introduced by George Alexander. As the Cold War period drew to a close, conventional deterrence theory received renewed academic attention. Scholars began to apply statistical methods of testing deterrence theory's various empirical implications. A major conclusion reached in this research was that game theory has promising possibilities when applied to international security-oriented studies of deterrence, as deterrence involves a limited number of actors that strategically engage on the basis of respective interests.1