Fertilizer Prices Research Articles

Determinants of Profit Efficiency among Rice Farmers in Kilombero Valley, Morogoro, Tanzania

Farmers in the Kilombero Valley are experiencing a growing trend towards commercialization seen through the expansion in the cultivated land area rather than agricultural intensification. There is a modicum of information on whether the observed increase in commercialization in the area is associated with an increase in profit. This study used the stochastic profit frontier function to estimate the profit efficiency of rice commercializing farmers and the respective determinants. The study used data collected from 377 rice farmers who were selected by using a multi-stage stratified sampling method. Results indicate that rice commercialising farmers' mean profit efficiency level was 75.65%. This indicates that rice farmers can improve their efficiency levels by 24.4% without increasing the level of inputs used. Maximum likelihood estimates indicated that wage, price of fertilizer, rice area in hectares, and production assets value were significant in determining the profit efficiency of rice commercializing farmers in Kilombero. The study concludes that commercializing farmers in the study area was profit efficient. The study recommends that more emphasis on early formal education in farmers’ society be emphasized for the literate group is more profit-efficient than the illiterate. With the present national educational policy to support education, farming households should strategically take advantage of it as education has exhibited a positive impact on their efficiency. Different services (marketplaces and inputs dealerships) in the area should be improved further to create more room for rice farmers to improve their productivity and profitability.

Influence of humic preparations on the development of honeysuckle in the forest steppe of Western Siberia

Blue honeysuckle is a winter-hardy and unpretentious crop; in folk medicine, its berries and juice are used for hypertension, anemia, and intestinal disorders. The environmental situation and the general rise in prices of pesticides and mineral fertilizers stimulate the choice of alternative technologies and the use of biological plant protection products, growth stimulants, and bacterial fertilizers. In this regard, our research aimed to study the effect of various humic preparations on the growth and development of green cuttings of blue honeysuckle variety Berel. This variety has a medium ripening period, gives a high yield, is slightly crumbling, and is highly winter-hardy. The research was carried out in the Novosibirsk region on the territory of the Agro Seed Company in 2019 - 2021. The average annual growth and general condition of blue honeysuckle plants of the Berel variety were determined according to generally accepted methods. Data analysis showed that all studied indicators of honeysuckle plants are greatly influenced by the year’s conditions when the difference between years reaches 25 - 30%. In addition, it was found that all the studied drugs positively affect the growth and development of plants and, in particular, the survival rate and overwintering of green honeysuckle cuttings (up to 45%). Thus, the ZhT “Ekozhizn” preparation provided better survival and overwintering of plants. Cytohumate had a better effect on the development of vegetative mass, but in terms of survival and overwintering, it was inferior to using the ZhT “Ecozhizn” preparation.

The application of fertilizer subsidies in the context of coffee plantations in Pollung Sub-District, Humbang Hasundutan District, North Sumatra Province

This study aims to evaluate the application of fertilizer subsidies used by coffee farmers in the Humbang Hasundutan Regency. The research method used was qualitative. Three people became informants in this study, and data were collected through qualitative interviews. The results showed that coffee farmers in the Humbang Hasundutan District received high-quality subsidized fertilizer. However, there are some cases where fertilizer distribution is inadequate. For example, (1) the application of the type of fertilizer provided is good because farmers can apply for orders according to their needs in developing coffee farming, (2) the application of the amount of fertilizer distributed is also good because it is by the land area used by farmers, (3) but the application of fertilizer prices is not good because farmers have to pay additional costs that cause fertilizer prices to exceed the Highest Retail Price (HET), and (4) the distribution of fertilizer is not good because it often experiences delays. Thus, the government has a vital role in making national policies, local governments, agricultural agencies, and fertilizer producers or distributors in implementing and distributing fertilizer subsidies for coffee farmers in the Humbang Hasundutan Regency.

Pengaruh Pemberian Pupuk Organik Jenis Bokashi Terhadap Produktivitas Tanaman Kacang Tanah (Arachis hypogaea L.)

Peanuts are rich in fat, contain high protein, iron, vitamin E and calcium, vitamin B complex and phosphorus, vitamins A and K, lecithin, choline and calcium. Problems faced by local communities include low peanut production due to poor growth systems due to less than optimal fertilization. This is because the price of chemical fertilizers is high and difficult to obtain. This type of research is experimental research (true experiment research). This research aims to determine the effect of providing bokashi type organic fertilizer on the productivity of peanut plants. One way ANOVA test results obtained: 1) calculated F value of 4.915 with a significant value of 0.019 for the number of fruits, 2) calculated F value of 4.936 with a significant value of 0.019 for gross weight, 3) calculated F value of 6.149 with a significant value of 0.009 for net weight. Based on these data, it is known that the significant value for the number of fruit is 0.019, the gross weight is 0.019, and the net weight is 0.009, which is smaller than 0.05, so it can be concluded that the application of bokashi fertilizer has a real effect on the productivity of peanut plants (A hypogaea L.), this shows that Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected, then in this case it is necessary to proceed to the Duncan test.

The implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for African economies: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to soaring world market prices of many commodities with severe repercussions for many African countries. This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers for Ethiopia. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study shows negative impacts on GDP, wage rates, and households’ consumption in the country. The effects of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are notable and unequal across production sectors. With increasing import prices of inorganic fertilizers, crop growing activities substitute inorganic fertilizers with animal manure reducing the use of manure as cooking fuel. The effects on urban households are more severe than the effects on rural households. Policies supporting biofuels and biogas digesters may dampen the adverse effects stemming from petroleum price surges.

Conflict in Ukraine and the unsettling ripples: implications on food systems and development in North Africa

AbstractThe ongoing conflict in Ukraine has profoundly impacted food systems in North Africa. This paper aims to analyze the impact of the conflict on food security in North Africa and the potential long-term consequences for the global food system. The research explores both scholarly and grey literature, including government reports, academic articles, and news articles. The findings indicate that food systems in North Africa have been particularly affected by the conflict in Ukraine, owing to its influence on the global economy, trade dynamics, and food prices. The consequent high fertilizer prices have also affected local food production, decreasing yields and increasing food prices. However, those countries with substantial financial resources (cf. Algeria) will likely be able to mitigate the adverse effects on their citizens. In contrast, countries with limited resources (cf. Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia) or failed states (cf. Libya) may struggle to ensure the food security of their populations. The findings highlight the importance of considering these impacts when addressing global food security challenges. The food security situation in North Africa serves as a reminder of the interconnectivity of global food systems and the need for continued efforts to ensure food security for all.

Evaluating Organic Fertilizers and Microbial Inoculation for Soilless and Hydroponic Crop Production

Because hydroponic operations in the United States can be certified as organic, and because the price of chemical fertilizers has increased, there is an increasing interest in using organic fertilizers and beneficial microorganisms for controlled-environment agriculture. However, there is a scarcity of information regarding their effectiveness and application methodologies. We investigated the effects of inoculating Azospirillum brasilense and Rhizophagus intraradices and using organic fertilizers on growing lettuce (Lactuca sativa ‘Cherokee’) and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum ‘Red Robin’) young plants in an indoor vertical farm. Seeds were sown in rockwool substrate, with A. brasilense (1.05 × 108 colony-forming units⋅L−1) or R. intraradices (580 propagules⋅L−1) applied weekly via subirrigation. Seedlings received chemical fertilizer, organic fertilizer derived from corn steep liquor and fermented fish by-products, and food waste-derived organic fertilizer at 100 ppm total nitrogen every 2 or 3 days. They were grown indoors at 23 °C under light-emitting diode lighting at a photosynthetic photon flux density of 200 μmol⋅m−2⋅s−1 with an 18-hour photoperiod. Lettuce under organic fertilizers had 75% lower shoot fresh mass and 64% less shoot dry mass compared with lettuce under chemical fertilizer. Similarly, tomato seedlings with organic fertilizers had fewer leaves, 75% less shoot fresh mass, and 67% less shoot dry mass. In both lettuce and tomato, the macronutrient and micronutrient concentrations in plant tissues were generally similar regardless of fertilizer treatments, but nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen uptake efficiency were lower under organic fertilizers compared with those under chemical fertilizer. The inoculation of A. brasilense or R. intraradices showed limited effects on plant nutrient uptake, nutrient concentrations, and seedling growth in both lettuce and tomato. Further research is necessary to optimize application methods for organic fertilizers and beneficial microorganisms to fully harness the benefits of sustainable alternative fertilizers in soilless and hydroponic crop production.

Impact of urea fertilization rates on nitrogen losses, productivity and profitability in East African sugarcane plantations

AbstractFertilizer‐intensive sugarcane plantations are expanding in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) amidst increased groundwater pollution and carbon footprint concerns. Yet, the impact of nitrogen (N) levels on N losses, productivity and profitability in these plantations remains unclear. To address this gap, we conducted a completely randomized design experiment in a Ugandan sugarcane plantation using three N fertilization rates (low, standard and high) as treatments. N leaching under the different treatments was determined using the average drainage fluxes across a 1‐m‐layered profile which we estimated with a suite of pedotransfer functions (PTFs) and leachate N concentrations from suction cup lysimeters. Soil nitrous oxide fluxes were determined using static vented chamber bases and gas chromatography. Partial factor crop productivity was estimated from the average field fresh weight under each treatment and the amount of N fertilizer applied, while the return on investment was determined from the factory price of the field fresh weight and the market price of fertilizers. Our findings indicate that three out of five PTFs effectively estimated soil hydraulic properties at our test site, based on the close match between measured and predicted soil matric potential values. Notably, N leaching at low and standard N rates were comparable but significantly lower than at higher‐than‐standard N rates. Additionally, we measured comparable soil nitrous oxide emissions and field fresh weight but partial factor productivity and return on investment declined along the fertilizer intensification gradient. In conclusion, the study demonstrates the promising application of certain PTFs in N‐leaching modelling in the data‐scarce SSA. Furthermore, obtaining comparable field fresh weight with minimal N losses at lower‐than‐standard N rates presents an opportunity to mitigate groundwater pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential impact of the switch from standard to low N rates on soil organic carbon stocks and sugarcane yields warrants further investigation.

Impact of Fertilizer Price and Subsidy on the Global Wheat Market

Impact of Fertilizer Price and Subsidy on the Global Wheat Market

Analysis of production projections and factors that correlated with rice production in Indonesia

Introduction: Meeting rice needs is largely determined by the level of domestic rice production. However, the various dynamics that occur provide encouragement to provide an overview of the conditions for meeting food needs, namely in the form of rice, based on trends in rice production and how independent variables correlate with rice production. The aim of this research is to determine the projected rice production for 2023-2032 and determine the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable (rice production) and the independent variables in the form of harvested area, price of harvested dry grain, price of urea fertilizer and price. Methods: namely a quantitative descriptive method with secondary time series data from 1993-2022. Data analysis techniques for forecasting studies are by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) analysis. Meanwhile, in the correlation analysis of rice production using the Pearson correlation. Results: Projections for rice commodity production in Indonesia from 2023 to 2032 using the MA1 model show a positive trend. Analysis of the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, namely harvest area (X1), rice price (X2), urea fertilizer price (X3), and price of other food commodities, namely corn (X4) shows a significant positive relationship with rice production in Indonesia. Conclusion: Projections for rice commodity production in Indonesia from 2023 to 2032, which were analyzed using the MA 1 model, obtained data with a positive trend which states that based on past data, Indonesian rice production will continue to increase every year in line with domestic food needs.

The Influence of Biosaka as an Elisitor to Increase Productivity of Food Crops Pakcoy (Brassica rapa L.) as Eco-Friendly Agricultural Innovation

The pakcoy plant (Brassica rapa L) belongs to the type of mustard vegetable that is easy acquired and quite economical. This is enough to increase the community's need forpakcoy plant. Rising fertilizer prices are forcing farmers to look for alternatives others to supply nutrients for plants. Biosaka is a biological elisitor that can increases productivity in plants. The purpose of this study is to find out The influence of biosaka on pakcoy plants. This research uses quantitative methods with this type of experimental research. The experimental design in this study is group random design (RAK) with parameters namely stem height, leaf width, number leaves and weight of pakcoy. The results of this study show that there is an influence that Significant to the productivity of pakcoy plants given additional biosaka with analysis data ANOVA. Where In the third treatment, the significant effect was more visible.

Profitability and marketing system of Binachinabadam-8 in some selected northern char areas of Bangladesh

The present study was undertaken to assess the profitability, marketing system, production and marketing problems of a groundnut variety, Binachinabadam-8 in the river bed areas of Rangpur, Gaibandha and Kurigram districts during 2022–23. The study analyzed the efficiency of different marketing chains by ranking performance indicators using a composite index formula. The average per hectare production cost of Binachinabadam-8 was Tk. 90,470 and the net return was Tk. 68,064. The benefit-cost ratio was estimated at 1.75 and 2.89 on a full cost and variable cost basis. The average estimated marketing cost was highest (Tk. 925/quintal) for Stockist and lowest (Tk. 87/quintal) for Arathdar. Net marketing margin was also highest (Tk. 1787/quintal) for Stockist and lowest (Tk. 115/quintal) for Arathdar. Farmer’s share in consumer prices of Binachinabadam-8 in different marketing chains was the highest in Chain-IV (65.46%) and the lowest was in Chain-I (63.98%). The performance indicators revealed that the Chain-IV was the most efficient of the chains. Farmers reported major problems including lack of irrigation facilities, high seed value, flood incidence, high fertilizer prices, lack of capital, lack of training and insect and pest. The farmers faced significant marketing challenges, including unstable prices, high transportation charges, lack of storage facilities and lack of cash capital. Therefore, the study will help to over undertake appropriate measures to overcome the production and marketing problems and thereby will increase the profitability and production of Binachinabadam-8 in the river bed areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh J. Nuclear Agric, 37(2): 109-120, 2023

Farmers’ Perceptions of Maize Production Constraints and the Effects of Push–Pull Technology on Soil Fertility, Pest Infestation, and Maize Yield in Southwest Ethiopia

This study aimed to analyze farmers’ perceptions of maize production constraints and determine the effects of push–pull technology (PPT) on crop yield, pest control, and improving soil fertility status. Increasing fertilizer prices and pesticide prices, FAWs (fall armyworms) and stemborers, declining soil fertility, and drought are the main maize production constraints in the area. Seventy percent of the respondents indicated that an increase in input prices such as those of fertilizer and seeds is the major constraint in the area, while FAWs (55%) and stemborers (44.3%) were ranked the third and fourth major constraints. About 67% of farmers reported that stemborer damage to maize in PPT plots was either minimal or non-existent. Fifty-five percent of farmers stated that the damage caused to maize by FAWs was low or that there was no damage in PPT plots. PPT reduced stem borer infestation from 83% to 44%. The yield gained from PPT plots ranged from 18% to 31%. Soil samples taken from PPT plots showed improved soil organic carbon, organic matter, total nitrogen, and cation exchange capacity.

Energy, economic, and environmental (3E) assessment of the major greenhouse crops: MFCA-LCA approach.

In order to develop sustainable production of greenhouse crops, the economic, energy, and environmental aspects of production should be considered. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the economic, energy, and environmental (3E) sustainability of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper production in greenhouses by performing material flow cost accounting (MFCA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) material and methods. Calculating the economic and energy value of losses in agricultural sustainability assessment studies is not common. Using the LCA method alone does not allow us to calculate the monetary and energy value of waste. If this method is used simultaneously with MFCA, this gap will be filled. The system boundary for LCA was from cradle to farm, and for MFCA, foreground processes were considered. The production of each crop was compared at the level of 1000 m2 during 1year. Data were collected through questionnaire-based interviews. The gross value of production for cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper were 8982, 16387, and 17610 $/1000 m2, respectively. The negative production of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper were 702, 718, and 449 $/1000 m2, respectively. The benefit-to-cost ratio in the production of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper was calculated as 2.8, 5.17, and 5.8, respectively. The economic productivity in the production of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper was calculated at 10.25, 7, and 4.4kg/$. Labor cost was the main cost in the production of all three crops. The total input energy for the production of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper was estimated to be 99.4, 123.1, and 164.6 GJ/1000 m2, respectively. Negative products in the production of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper were obtained at - 24.2, - 23.9, and - 13.5 GJ/1000 m2, respectively. The energy productivity of cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper was calculated as 0.23, 0.26, and 0.08kg/MJ, respectively. The specific energy indices were 4.32, 3.79, and 12.20MJ/kg for cucumber, tomato, and bell pepper, respectively. The energy ratio in the production of tomato (0.02) was higher than bell pepper (- 0.02) and cucumber (- 0.06). From the perspective of energy, electricity was recognized as the hotspot for the production of three crops. Global warming (GWP100a), ozone layer depletion (ODP), acidification (AC), and eutrophication (EP) indices were calculated for all three crops. Tomato production was ranked first in all impact categories. On-farm emissions and electricity consumption were identified as environmental hotspots. The subsidized price of electricity, natural gas, and chemical fertilizers has led to their excessive use in the production of greenhouse plants. It can be concluded that bell pepper has the best performance from an economic point of view. However, its production is not justified in terms of energy. Tomato was ranked first in terms of energy, and cucumber was ranked first in terms of low environmental impacts. The production of these plants with energy and chemical fertilizer subsidies is currently cost-effective. If the prices are corrected, the production of these plants will face serious challenges. Producing electricity from sunlight and mechanizing production processes can be a solution to these challenges.

Fertilizer use efficiency and economic viability in maize production in the Savannah and transitional zones of Ghana

Increasing fertilizer use is highly justified for sustainable agricultural intensification if yield response, fertilizer use efficiency (FUE), and economic viability of fertilizer application are high. Despite the increasing fertilizer application rates in Ghana, yields only marginally increased. Also, the recent fertilizer price hikes post COVID-19 revived concern for economic analysis of fertilizers. This study analyzed the FUE and economic viability of fertilizer use in maize production in Guinea/Sudan Savannah and Transitional/Deciduous zones of Ghana. Survey data from 2,673 farmers in the 2019, 2020, and 2021 production seasons were used. The average agronomic efficiency (AE), partial factor productivity (PFP), and value-cost ratio (VCR) of fertilizer use were 2.2 kg of grains per kilogram of fertilizer, 18.3 kg grains per kilogram of fertilizer, and 1.8 Ghana cedis of marginal yield per Ghana cedi spent on fertilizer, respectively. Fertilizer use was economically viable for only 28.1% of farmers with a VCR of 2 or higher, while 52.5% reached the break-even point with a VCR of at least 1. Various fertilizer formulations, including NPK plus sulfur, and adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices, particularly improved seeds, organic fertilizers, and minimum tillage, improved maize yield response to fertilizer and thus the FUE. These low efficiency and economic viability of fertilizer use are prevailing conditions in other sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries and these do not guarantee sustainable food security and improved livelihood of the farmers in the region. Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), together with relevant stakeholders, should provide guidance on ISFM and intensify farmer education through farmer associations to increase the adoption of ISFM. The local government should work with other relevant stakeholders to improve the market conditions within the agriculture sector, for instance, by linking farmers to city markets for favorable output prices.

Fertilizer price behavior in Brazil - 2018 to 2021

The aim of this paper is to track the behavior of fertilizer prices from 2018 to 2021, highlighting the determinants and consequences. We used data on the average monthly national prices of urea, potassium chloride and monoammonium phosphate fertilizers, obtained from the National Supply Company (CONAB). A comparative analysis was carried out to show the variation in prices over the period studied, taking into account indicators such as the dollar index, oil prices, agricultural production, fertilizer import data, national fertilizer production and freight rates. The results of the research indicate that Brazil's external dependence on fertilizer-exporting countries makes it susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations, the prices of raw materials, such as oil, and global political relations, in addition to the law of supply and demand in the market.

The fishbone diagram analysis to know the factors that influence the decreasing interest of farmers in the cultivation of soybean

Soybean crop productivity in The Pracimantoro District ranked second in Wonogiri Regency in 2021. However, over time the stability of production has decreased. One thing that causes the decline in soybean production in Pracimantoro District is the decreased interest of farmers in cultivating. This study aimed to determine the factors causing the declining interest of farmers in planting soybeans. The research location was conducted in Pracimantoro District, Wonogiri Regency. The data in this study are primary data and secondary data. Primary data is data are taken directly from the research location through direct observation at the location, interviews with relevant stakeholders, and filling out questionnaires. Secondary data is obtained through agencies related to this research, tabulated and descriptive, and literature searches supporting this research. Analysis method of data using the fishbone diagram. The results showed that the factors that influence the decline in farmers' interest in cultivating soybeans are sources of plant pest and disease risks, sources of input risk and soybean production techniques and sources of risk in the business environment. Some pests and diseases that often arise and attack soybean commodities are leaf spot, whitefly, caterpillar/pod caterpillar, leafhopper, stink bug, bacterial wilt and javelin/ladybug. The Risks from nature is that high rainfall and changing climatic conditions also make it difficult for farmers to grow soybeans. The risk from the production input sector is the unstable quality, quantity, and price of seeds, pesticides and fertilizers. Moreover, other influencing factors exist, such as the entry of imported soybeans, price games at middlemen, the absence of a lower price limit for local soybeans, and post-harvest limitations.

Pengembangan ERP Untuk Digitalisasi Proses Produksi dan Penjualan Pupuk

Competition in the industrial world after the impact of Covid-19 has become fierce competition. Many companies choose to increase effectiveness and efficiency by implementing digitalization in production and sales activities. PT. Megarhizo Ega Persada is a company that is developing, a company whose main production is liquid organic fertilizer under the brand "Megarhizo". Production activities still use manual bookkeeping processes. So it takes a long time for distribution from the warehouse to the production location. Miscalculations often occur in warehouses resulting in inappropriate production targets, due to insufficient or expired materials due to being in the warehouse for too long. This problem often occurs because the recording process is not thorough and results in stock buildup or stock shortages in the warehouse. So we need a system that can easily and quickly manage data so that these things don't happen again. Digitalization of the sales process is a solution to this problem, fertilizer products are products that are different from other production, because fertilizer is a product that is monitored so the price of fertilizer should not burden the public. By digitizing sales, companies can directly monitor stock and products sold from each distribution location to the resellers. So the number of products sold and prices can still be monitored, besides that the company can also find out the effectiveness of fertilizer production.

Analisis Risiko Usahatani Padi Sawah Di Desa Radey Kecamatan Tenga Kabupaten Minahasa Selatan

The purpose of the study was to analyze the risk of wet-rice farming in Radey Village, Tenga Subdistrict, South Minahasa Regency. The research lasted for 2 months from September to October 2023. The research was conducted in Radey Village, Tenga District, South Minahasa Regency. Data collection methods in this study were collected through primary data obtained through direct interviews with wet-rice farmers in Radey Village using questionnaires. Secondary data were taken from village and sub-district offices as well as previous research reports, journals, and from the internet related to the research. The sampling method was purposive sampling. The number of samples in this study were 20 respondents who owned farmland (owners) to determine priority risks. Data analysis used in this research is the FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) method. Criteria in assessing risk refers to The Basic of FMEA by McDermott with a scale of 1 to 3. Calculate the priority level of each risk source based on the Risk Priority Number (RPN) value. The results showed that there are 2 sources of risk faced by rice farmers that are directly related to rice plants and affect rice farming, namely the risk of production risk sources and price and marketing risks, production risks as many as 4 risks, namely strong winds, pest and disease attacks, erratic weather and climate, high rainfall intensity. Price and marketing risks are 2 difficulties in the process of selling grain, and expensive fertilizer prices. Based on the calculation of the RPN (Risk Priority Number) value, there are 3 risks out of 6 risks faced by rice farmers that must be prioritized. The first risk that must be prioritized first is uncertain weather/climate with an RPN value of 14.25, the second risk of high rainfall intensity with an RPN value of 12.16, and the third risk of strong winds with an RPN value of 10.72.

The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to exacerbate food insecurity around the world, as both countries are major exporters of grains and other agricultural products. In this model-based scenario study, medium-term effects of the war are quantified on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, food security, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios assess the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, trade sanctions against Russia, and conflict-related energy price developments for global trade, food security, and greenhouse gas emissions. From a food security perspective, we conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food and energy prices cause problems for low-income populations, spending a large part of their income on staple foods. Agricultural production and area expansion in parts of the world other than Ukraine and Russia could pose a risk to biodiversity and lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions related to land. However, total greenhouse gas emissions might decrease as lower emissions from less use of fossil energy due to higher energy and fertilizer prices in the whole economy dominate additional emissions resulting from land use change.