Fertility Rates Research Articles

A decomposition study on the factors influencing China's total fertility rate changes between 1990 and 2020.

Low fertility is not conducive to healthy population development. The total fertility rate (TFR) is influenced by the education expansion (measured by the proportion of non-student women, NSP), marriage delay (measured by the proportion of married women, MP), and marital fertility rate (MFR). This study decomposes the TFR change into the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR using China's census and 1% population sample survey data. During 1990-2020, the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR contributed - 22%, - 90%, and 12%, respectively, to the changes in TFR. The continuous decline in NSP reduced the TFR, and the intensity continued to increase over time. As the primary negative driving force, the rapid decline in MP also consistently reduced the TFR. The marital fertility rate had a downward effect on the TFR before 2000 and an upward effect after 2000. The effects of NSP, MP, and MFR on the TFR varied with the birth order, age and region (among cities, towns, and villages). In summary, China's TFR has considerably changed in combination with changes in NSP, MP, and MFR. Without effective measures, China's TFR may further decline into the lowest-low fertility trap.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility Rates in China: An Empirical Analysis Using ARIMA Modeling

Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth empirical analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on fertility rates in China using ARIMA modeling and forecasting techniques. The study reveals a significant and fundamental decline in birth rates throughout the pandemic, indicating that the long-term downward trend is more pronounced than ever. This unprecedented drop underscores the severity and uniqueness of the COVID-19 crisis's influence on reproductive behavior. The findings align with prior research on the global economic and health challenges' effects, but the scale and speed of changes during the pandemic remain unparalleled. These dynamics highlight the necessity to reassess and strengthen population management strategies and healthcare systems, particularly in reproductive health and family planning services. Despite utilizing a comprehensive dataset, limitations regarding data scope and sample size persist. Future research should broaden data scope and sample size, analyze regional differences, undertake long-term longitudinal studies, and incorporate multivariable analysis to better understand the pandemic's impact on fertility decisions.

Unveiling China's Fertility Dilemma: Analyzing Risk Factors and Their Global Implications

Abstract: The National Bureau of Statistics of China has announced in 2021 that the country has formally entered the stage of low fertility rate, reaching a historically low of 1.3. Such low birth is far below the replacement level of 2.1 which is needed for maintaining a sustainable population, implying the possibility for China to start a significant demographic shift. Several key factors have contributed to this decline. Factors behind the problem includes Chinas historical policy implementation, socioeconomic factors including the rise of housing price and cost of upbringing and social factors including waning of social norms and ascent of gender equity. Such phenomenon serves as also valuable insights for analyzing global fertility intention for countries like Switzerland, the United States and South Korea. As all global policymakers seek to address the problem of unstable and declining fertility rates and waning fertility intention, the Chinese case could provide intriguing example as supportive evidence.

The effect of trade liberalization on marriage and fertility: evidence from Indian census

Abstract Using a district-level panel constructed from five waves of decennial Indian censuses covering 1971–2011, we examine the medium-term (1991–2001) and long-term (1991–2011) impacts of the 1991 Indian trade liberalization on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15–34. We exploit the fact that countrywide tariff reductions varied across industries creating exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial employment composition of the district. We find heterogeneous results across urban and rural areas. We find that urban areas of the districts that experienced larger tariff cuts experienced relative increases in marriage rates compared to the districts that experienced smaller tariff cuts. Tariff cuts positively affect workforce participation among both young men and women in urban areas. However, there is no impact of tariff cuts on the marriage rate or workforce participation among young population (15–34) in rural areas. In contrast, tariff cuts reduced fertility rates mostly in rural areas.

Novel Minimally Invasive Surgical Approaches to Endometriosis and Adenomyosis: A Comprehensive Review

Endometriosis and adenomyosis are chronic gynecological conditions that significantly impact women’s quality of life, leading to symptoms such as pelvic pain, dysmenorrhea, and infertility. Despite ongoing research, a definitive cure for these conditions remains elusive, and treatment often focuses on managing symptoms. Minimally invasive surgery is considered the gold standard for surgical management, but novel surgical techniques are continuously being developed to enhance outcomes. These innovations aim to reduce disease recurrence, improve fertility rates, and provide better long-term symptom relief. In addition, techniques like robot-assisted laparoscopy (RAS) have revolutionized the treatment of complex cases, such as deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE), offering improved precision and effectiveness. This review explores the latest advancements in surgical approaches, their clinical efficacy, and future directions, emphasizing the need for individualized multidisciplinary care to optimize patient outcomes.

Relationship between justice and economic growth: the effects of rule of law and democracy

ABSTRACT This study analyses the effects of justice on economic growth. In this context, the study investigates the impact of justice on per capita income in 43 middle-income countries between 2005–2021 with Parks-Kmenta, Beck-Katz estimators and the extended mean group estimator (AMG). Rule of law and democracy variables are used as justice indicators. National income per capita is used as an indicator of economic growth, and national income, fixed capital investments, fertility rates, public expenditures, education expenditures, life expectancy and openness to internationalization are used as control variables. The findings show that the rule of law has a positive effect on per capita GDP in Albania, Armenia, Ecuador, Jordan, Malaysia, North Macedonia, South Africa, Thailand and El Salvador. Democracy only has a positive effect on GDP per capita in Turkey. The study contributes to the limited literature on the relationship justice and economic grow. It differs from the literature by analysing the effects of the rule of law and democracy both on a country group basis and country-specific effects.

Fertility model evolution: A survey on mathematical models of age-specific fertility with application to Nepalese and Malaysian data

Fertility pattern analysis and modeling to smooth age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) form a well-established research field that holds particular importance for Asian countries. In developed nations, ASFRs typically display a bimodal skewed fertility curve, whereas, in developing countries, they usually exhibit a unimodal skewed fertility curve that diverges from the normal one. For decades, demographic experts worldwide have been interested in creating models using deterministic and stochastic approaches to represent these fertility curves. In this regard, parametric and non-parametric models have been created, with the latter providing a better fit for ASFR data. This research investigates the evolution of fertility models aimed at smoothing ASFRs. It explores suitable alternative models for countries with fast-declining, unimodal, and skewed fertility curves of ASFRs, such as Nepal and Malaysia. Nepal’s fertility rate is transitioning from a high level toward the replacement rate (2.1) at the year 2021; meanwhile, Malaysia’s fertility rate (1.7) in the year 2021 has dropped below the replacement rate. Given the lack of a universally applicable model for ASFR pattern variation, this study proposes the Kumaraswamy log-logistic distribution as a promising model to represent the ASFRs of Nepal and Malaysia accurately. Various approaches, including the Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion, are employed to validate the fitting of the proposed model.

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG FERTILE AGE COUPLES (PUS) IN TEBING TINGGI DISTRICT

An increase in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) leads to a growing population and a decline in family quality within a society. This study aims to identify the factors influencing contraceptive use among couples of reproductive age in Tebing Tinggi District. A cross-sectional design was employed, with multivariate analysis used for prediction models. The sample consisted of couples of reproductive age in Tebing Tinggi District, West Tanjung Jabung Regency, selected through a simple random sampling method. Six variables were found to be significantly associated with contraceptive use: husband’s support, knowledge, education, partner’s attitude, perception of side effects, and sources of information. Conversely, there was no significant relationship between the ideal number of children, economic status, and cultural factors with contraceptive use. The dominant factor influencing contraceptive use was husband’s support, showing a higher likelihood of contraceptive use among couples who received support from their husbands. Health facilities play a crucial role as pioneers in providing education to couples of reproductive age regarding contraceptive use, thus potentially increasing participation in family planning programs among these couples.

Regional government institutions and the capacity for women to reconcile career and motherhood

Abstract Declining fertility and the persistent underrepresentation of women in the labour market are key concerns of our time. The fact that they overlap is not fortuitous. Traditionally, women everywhere have faced a conflict in balancing their career ambitions with family responsibilities. Yet, the pressures arising from this conflict vary enormously from one place to another. Existing research has tended to overlook the geographical features of this dilemma, which could result in an inadequate understanding of the issue and lead to ineffective policy responses. This article examines how variations in the quality of regional institutions affect women’s capacity to reconcile career and motherhood and, consequently, gender equality within Europe. Using panel data from 216 regions across 18 European countries, we uncover a positive effect of regional institutional quality on fertility rates, taking into account variations in female employment. Moreover, we show that European regions with better government quality provide a more reliable environment for managing the career/motherhood dilemma often faced by women. In contrast, women living in regions with weaker government institutions are more constrained in both their career and childbearing options.

Impact of fundamentalism on human capital, women's social status and demographics: Evidence from Islamic state of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Iraq

I analyze the impact of the religious fundamentalists’ rule on regional human capital development and women's social status by exploiting the unexpected rise and fall of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northwestern Iraq (2014∼2017). I find a large downward impact of exposure to ISIS rule on female human capital and an upward one on fertility rate for women who were school-aged at the time of ISIS occupation. These women express more patriarchal family norms and are more likely to belong to a polygamous union, implying a decline in women's social status. This decline in human capital and the rise of patriarchal family norms doesn't cause a significant negative impact on the development of their pre-school-aged children, possibly implying that these women didn't decrease parenting effort for their children. In summary, even a brief period of extremist rule has potentially large impacts on human capital development and culture.

The Socioeconomic Impact of Fertility Rates on Nigeria's Development: A Policy Perspective

This paper explores the socioeconomic impact of Nigerias high fertility rate and its influence on the countrys economic development. With a fertility rate of 5.14 children per woman in 2022, far exceeding the global average, Nigeria faces significant demographic challenges. The analysis focuses on three critical data points: fertility rate, female tertiary education rate, and female labor force participation rate. The findings highlight how cultural factors, educational attainment, and labor market participation contribute to sustained high fertility rates, particularly in rural areas. Additionally, the paper examines how these factors exacerbate gender inequality and limit economic opportunities for women, thereby hindering Nigeria's overall economic progress. Policy recommendations include promoting female education and workforce participation to help manage population growth and stimulate economic development.

Compassion fatigue and palliative care in neonatal nurses.

Neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) emerge as one of the areas where palliative care is most needed. This study was conducted to examine the attitudes and compassion fatigue levels of NICUs nurses working in Şanlıurfa, where the fertility rate and infant mortality are highest in Turkey, toward palliative care. This study was conducted in descriptive type. The research was carried out with 204 (85%) nurses who agreed to participate in the research between October 2022 and February 2023, out of 240 neonatal intensive care nurses working in the NICU of 2 training and research hospitals and a university hospital in Şanlıurfa. The data of the study were collected using an Introductory Information Form, the Neonatal Palliative Care Attitude Scale, and the Compassion Fatigue Short Scale. Nurses; compassion fatigue scale mean score was 61.46 ± 26.64, palliative care scale mean score was 3.13 ± 0.74 for organization subdimension, 2.85 ± 0.73 for resources subdimension, and 3.08 ± 0.89 for clinician subdimension. In the results of the study, 8 barriers (parents do not participate in decisions, there is not enough staff, lack of time to spend with the family, lack of policies/rules in institutions for palliative care, lack of education and communication, society's beliefs, nurses' personal attitudes toward death, and lack of appreciation of past experiences with palliative care) and 6 facilitators (Nurses' ability to express their perceptions, views and beliefs about palliative care, to participate and support palliative care, to inform parents, to provide counseling, adequate physical conditions) for palliative care were determined. While it was determined that nurses had a slightly below moderate level of compassion fatigue and a close attitude toward organization and resources toward palliative care, it was determined that ethical conflict toward palliative care was high in clinical subdimension scores. It is recommended that all nurses working in the NICU obtain certificates, improvements in resources such as personnel and equipment, improvements in the shift work system and development of policies/rules in institutions for palliative care.

Reasons for the continued decline in fertility intentions: explanations from overtime work

ABSTRACT China’s fertility rate continues to decline despite government fertility policies. This study aims to explore the micro-level causes of China’s declining fertility rate by examining the impact of changes in Chinese work patterns in recent years, particularly the prevalence of overtime work, on fertility intentions. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study examines the impact of overtime work on fertility intentions at both the provincial and urban levels. It also examines the specific mechanisms through which different types of overtime (e.g. weekend overtime, night shifts, on-call duty) affect fertility intentions. The results show that overtime work significantly inhibits fertility intentions, a trend that is consistent at both provincial and urban levels. Weekend overtime, night shifts, and on-call duties exhibit particularly pronounced inhibitory effects on fertility intentions. However, not all work arrangements negatively impact fertility intentions. Reasonable work schedules may even foster them. The research implies the need for policy measures to mitigate the negative effects of overtime work on fertility intentions.

High-altitude hypoxia exposure alters follicular metabolome and oocyte developmental potential in women.

To explore the effects of high-altitude hypoxia on the microenvironment of oocyte development and fertilization potential, we compared the metabolomic patterns of follicular fluid from women living in different altitude areas and traced their oocyte maturation and subsequent development. A total of 315 clinical cases were collected and divided into three groups according to their residence altitudes: 138 cases in low-altitude (< 2300m) group, 100 cases in middle-altitude (2300-2800m) group and 77 cases in high-altitude (> 2800m) group. The clinical outcomes were statistically estimated, including hormonal level, oocyte maturation, in vitro fertilization, and embryo development. Meanwhile, a metabolomic analysis was performed on the follicular fluid of women from different groups using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography and high-resolution mass spectrometry and differential metabolites were analyzed through the KEGG pathway. The clinical data indicated that the physical condition and reproductive hormone secretion were similar among different groups. Although personalized gonadotropin-releasing hormone strategies were applied, the numbers of antral follicles and obtained oocytes were not impacted by the residence altitude change. In in vitro culture, the maturing rate, fertility rate and cleavage rate of high-altitude group were compared with the other groups. However, the rates of high-quality embryo, formative blastocyst, and available blastocyst were gradually decreased with the rise of residence altitude. Metabolome analysis identified 1193 metabolites in female follicular fluid. Differential analysis indicated that metabolic components in follicular fluid were remarkably changed with the elevation of residence altitude. These differential metabolites were closely related with amino acid metabolism, protein digestion and absorption, oocyte meiosis and steroid biosynthesis. The residence altitude alters the microenvironment of follicular fluid, which could damage the oocyte developmental potential. This study provides diagnostic basis and therapeutic targets for research on female oocyte and embryo development.

The predetermined future: tackling South Korea's total fertility rate crisis.

The predetermined future: tackling South Korea's total fertility rate crisis.

Mapping of Spatial Variance of Family Policy that Could Increase Fertility: Indices for 23 OECD Countries across 21 Year Period

In a period of falling fertility rates and increasing number of various family policies (FPs) that are designed to address this trend, our study explores spatial and temporal variance of such FP measures which could be associated with increased fertility. They have been implemented in a range of countries, but their variance has not yet been systematically mapped. We employ a novel approach, examining gender and economic dimensions of FP measures to develop FP indices scoring 23 European OECD countries throughout the 2000–2021 period and uncover spatial similarities and discrepancies therein. Our findings indicate that degenderizing FP measures are increasingly being adopted across countries, with both genderizing and generous financial measures also enduring. Interestingly, despite an overall decline in fertility rates, FP has become more robust across countries according to the indices. We agree with recent studies that degenderizing FPs are most common in Nordic countries and least so in Central and Eastern Europe. We provide evidence that Hungary and Estonia are exceptions, with different types and more extensive FP. We also found that countries categorised in different contextual clusters sometimes score similarly strongly on genderizing FP (Czechia, Luxembourg, Spain) or weakly on financial FP measures (Slovakia, the UK, Greece). In countries where index scores increased only recently (e.g., Switzerland, Spain), we expect potential increases in fertility rates in the future.

Exploring the Nexus Between Fertility Rates and Geopolitical Risk with Intelligence Methods: A Multifaceted Analysis

Background/Objectives: This paper presents an analysis of birth rate statistics, specifically focusing on recorded births in Scotland. The main research objective focuses on investigating the influence of geopolitical concerns on birth rate forecasts. Specifically, we examine whether individuals may choose to postpone or abstain from having children during times of conflict or political turmoil due to concerns about personal safety, the welfare of their children, or uncertainty about the future caused by geopolitical risks. Additionally, this study examines how disruptions to healthcare services, such as limited access to prenatal care and maternal health facilities, can affect birth outcomes and lead to changes in birth rates. Methods: To approach the research objective both machine learning algorithms and classical statistical procedures. Also, as part of the current analysis, the Geopolitical Risk Index has been applied as an extra factor to predict the birth rate. Results: The results of our study demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning in producing precise predictions in this field, while emphasizing the significant influence of geopolitical risk on comprehending the dynamics of birth rates in Scotland. Conclusions: This study examines the effectiveness of several machine learning regression models in accurately predicting the number of births in Scotland using data that is not included in the model training process. Findings show promising outcomes in predicting births, while geopolitical instability has been indicated as a substantial influence on birth rates and fertility rates.

"Hit a bottleneck": a convergent mixed-methods approach to the Influencing factors and experience of fertility intention among mothers of childbearing age with two children in mainland China.

Fertility rates have been decreasing both worldwide and in China. Although current policies have been aimed at raising the birth rate in China, their overall effects have been unclear. Therefore, exploration of fertility intention and related influencing factors is crucial. This study used a convergent parallel mixed methods combining descriptive and cross-sectional designs with a framework analysis. Convenience sampling was used to select mothers of childbearing age with two children (n = 603), living in Guangdong Province, China. Participants completed an online questionnaire investigating sociodemographic characteristics, as well as determinants and attitudes regarding the third-child fertility intention. Correlation coefficients and multivariate regression analyses were used to present quantitative findings. Eleven interviews were conducted, and a framework analysis method was used for data analysis. The results for the qualitative and quantitative study components were analyzed separately and were subsequently integrated through side-by-side comparison and joint display. Attitudes toward fertility intention were negative, and the rate of fertility intention was 10.4% in Guangdong Province. In the quantitative component, women's age, perceived value of having a third child, and attitudes were found to be factors promoting the intention to have a third child, whereas monthly family income, grandparents' health status, and policy support were found to be factors hindering the intention to have a third child. Four major themes emerged regarding the perceptions and experiences regarding fertility intention in the qualitative component. After integrated analysis, younger age, knowledge regarding policy support, and access to childcare support were found to be factors significantly affecting the intentions of mothers with two children regarding having a third child. Fertility issues require continued attention. Our findings provide a reference for optimizing existing policies to increase fertility intentions. Providing policy support, such as public childcare support, flexible working hours for mothers, affordable childcare, and greater psychological support, would enable mothers to improve their parenting. In addition, increasing the dissemination of knowledge regarding policies is necessary to improve the level of public understanding and promote fertility intention.

Roosting ecology, reproduction, and population fluctuations of three Hipposideros species (Chiroptera) in Indonesian caves

Abstract Hipposideros spp. are insectivorous bats and karst cave dwellers. This study aimed to study the roosting ecology, reproduction, and population fluctuations of three species H. diadema, H. larvatus, and H. ater in Gunung Sewu Karst region, Indonesia. Age and reproductive status of individuals were identified and analyzed using a combination of forearm length (FA) and body mass grades (W). Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between population size, rainfall and population structure based on FA, reproductive status, and W. Crude birth rate (CBR) and general fertility rate (GFR) were used to determine the population’s birth rate and female fertility. The results showed that the population of the three Hipposideros species were quite stable over the year with a peak in January which classified them as monoestrous, with mating, pregnancy, and lactation occurring once a year with no delay between mating and pregnancy. Pregnancy lasted 8–12 weeks and lactation 4–5 weeks. The population structure of the three species tended to be stable over the year. The CBR and GFR values can be used for rapid assessment guidelines in an area.

Comparative fertility and hatchability of broiler grandparent stocks in Bangladesh

Checking the fertility and hatchability of broiler grandparent lines is important for improving chicken production. The Cobb-500, Ross-308, and Indian River (IR) grandparent strains were studied to determine their initial egg weight, fertility, hatchability, embryonic mortality, hatching weight, and chick survival rates. We studied a total of 2700 eggs from three different age/treatment, each consisting of three replicates with 100 eggs for each of the three genotypes. Using an automated incubator, eggs were incubated. Cobb-500 had a significantly higher mean egg weight (67.52 g) at later stage of their age compared to Ross-308 (64.22 g) and IR (65.05 g). Study also found that a higher egg weight reflects a higher day-old chick weight. The fertility rates of the Ross-308, IR, and Cobb-500 genotypes were high at 35 weeks (96.00%, 87.00%, and 93.00%) but declined after 45 weeks (64.22%, 65.05%, and 67.52%), respectively. The hatchability of Ross-308, IR, and Cobb-500 eggs at 35 weeks was 85.00%, 75.00%, and 80.00%, respectively. By 45 weeks, all genotypes had higher hatchability, with Ross-308 having the highest at 89%. But at 55 weeks, all genotype showed lowest hatchability where IR was the lowest 67%. Statistically significant variations were observed across strains at later stage. As age increased, embryonic mortality and brood mortality were higher. Compared to the other two, Ross-308 showed the lowest mortality in both embryonic and brooding cases in all three stages of their age of life. However, the IR breed consistently displayed the highest mortality rate. Same pattern showed dead in shell and culling chick’s percentages. Strain-wise, the parameters differ from each other. However, regarding overall performance, the Ross-308 strain outperformed the other two strains. Asian Australas. J. Food Saf. Secur. 2024, 8(2), 48-57