Feldstein Horioka Research Articles

Systems GMM estimates of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for the OECD countries and tests for structural breaks

A systems GMM estimation method is used to estimate the Feldstein–Horioka equation from 1960 to 2007 with a panel of 13 OECD countries. It is found that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exists in a weaker form with a much reduced saving retention coefficient. The Bretton Woods agreement in particular seems to have weakened the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle by significantly improving international capital mobility. In comparison the Maastricht agreement seems to have improved capital mobility only by a small magnitude. The Blundell and Bond systems GMM method and structural break tests of Mancini-Griffoli and Pauwels are used in this paper.

Financial openness and capital mobility: a dynamic panel analysis

Does unrestricted control on the movement of capital increase capital mobility? Theoretically, the answer is yes. This paper uses the Feldstein–Horioka savings–investment methodology to examine the impact of financial openness on the degree of capital mobility in 104 countries. Our estimates suggest that financial openness has increased capital mobility in developing countries, while its effect is statistically insignificant in OECD countries. This also implies that a developing country with more financial openness can have more access to external capital markets for borrowings. Foreign aid also appears to supplement domestic savings for investment in developing countries. In line with the previous findings, our study also confirms that capital is more mobile for developing countries.

Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle With Financial Frictions

Unlike the prediction of a frictionless open economy model, long-term average savings and investment rates are highly correlated across countries—a puzzle first identified by Feldstein and Horioka (1980). We quantitatively investigate the impact of two types of financial frictions on this correlation. One is limited enforcement ,w here contracts are enforced by the threat of default penalties. The other is limited spanning, where the only asset available is noncontingent bonds. We find that the calibrated model with both frictions produces a savings–investment correlation and a volume of capital flows close to the data. To solve the puzzle, the limited enforcement friction needs low default penalties under which capital flows are much lower than those in the data, and the limited spanning friction needs to exogenously restrict capital flows to the observed level. When combined, the two frictions interact to endogenously restrict capital flows and thereby solve the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle.

Does institutional quality affect capital mobility? Evidence from developing countries

AbstractThis paper uses an augmented Feldstein–Horioka savings–investment methodology to examine the impact of institutional quality on the degree of capital mobility in developing countries. A high correlation between domestic investment and domestic savings can arise from the presence of institutional rigidities restricting the movement of capital across borders. We find that including different aspects of institutional quality raises the coefficient of the savings rate, implying lower capital mobility. However, the improvement in institutional quality that strengthens the legal system, reduces investment risks, and ensures democratic accountability, increases capital mobility in developing countries. Inclusion of foreign aid also has a positive impact on the coefficient of the savings rate.

Testing the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for Australia

This article presents the details of an investigation into the relationship between investment and savings in Australia over the period 1960 to 2007. Using five time series techniques our results reveal that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exists in a weak form, with a lower saving retention coefficient. Granger causality tests illustrate that savings Granger causes investment, both in the short and long runs. Our results suggest Australia could effectively adopt policies that focus on increasing investment through increasing domestic savings.

Capital mobility in Asia: evidence from bounds testing of cointegration between savings and investment

This paper explores the international capital mobility in North Asia (South Korea and Taiwan), South Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and India. In particular, the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle, which states domestic investment and savings are highly and positively correlated, was examined for cointegration using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure. The results did not show a positive correlation between savings and investment. There was essentially no relationship at level between savings and investment in all eight cases. Thirteen out of 16 structural break tests or 81.25% indicate no structural breaks. The analysis concluded with certain limitations that there is high capital mobility in the economies under study.

Panel data model comparison for empirical saving-investment relations

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle has triggered a broad range of econometric specifications to investigate saving-investment (SI) relations. In this article, we attempt to determine a family of econometric models that is most suitable in explaining actual ratios of domestic investment to GDP via cross-validation techniques. Comparing between, pooled, time and country dependent specifications of the SI relation, the country dependent model is best performing. Moreover, error correction models formalizing adjustment dynamics of domestic investment ratios are markedly outperformed by static panel models. Supporting evidence for a cointegration relation between domestic saving and investment ratios is not found.

A survey of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand

The objective of this paper is to present a survey of the research related to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and, in particular, to investigate what economists have learned, which parts of the puzzle have been resolved, which parts remain to be addressed, and where future research is heading. This paper is different from other attempts because it reviews the most recent literature and presents it according to the theoretical and/or empirical approach to the subject. Thus, it can be useful to academics and policy makers who are interested in understanding how and why savings and investment move the way they do.

A NOTE ON HUMAN CAPITAL AND THE FELDSTEIN-HORIOKA PUZZLE*

In this paper we re-examine the Feldstein–Horioka finding of limited international capital mobility by using a broader view (i.e. including human capital) of investment and saving. We find that the decline in the economic significance of the Feldstein–Horioka result, found in studies using more recent data, holds also for our broader definition of saving and investment.

International capital mobility: linking the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle to the trade and equity home bias puzzles

We revisit the Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle using data for 23 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1973-2003. We document a sharp decline in the FH coefficient from the mid-1990s onward, supporting the hypothesis of increased economic and financial integration. Subsequently, we extend the literature and use a non-linear specification with interaction terms to empirically show that observed decreases in equity home bias (EHB) and increases in trade openness are structurally linked to the time variation in the FH coefficient. Thus, this paper empirically establishes a structural link between three puzzles in international macroeconomics and finance: the FH puzzle, the EHB puzzle and the trade home bias puzzle.

Financial integration in East Asia: Evidence from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests

The aim of this paper is to investigate the degree of financial integration for selected East Asian countries from 1988 to 2006 using the recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques. Investment and savings rates are found to be nonstationary and not to be cointegrated in panels. We estimate modified Feldstein–Horioka equations and our results reveal a high degree of financial integration. When we homogenize our data, results show that high-income countries have stronger financial integration than middle-income countries. Finally, we proceed to stability tests in order to test if there is a crisis effect and we find that financial integration is stronger in the post-crisis period.

A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

What does the saving–investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the SI relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allows to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence. The new modeling framework is applied to uncover the determinants of the SI relation. Macroeconomic state variables such as openness, the age dependency ratio, government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the SI relation significantly in the long run.

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in South American countries:a time-varying approach

Inasmuch as the investment-savings correlation is related to capital immobility and each country has specific and time-varying capital account liberalization and financial deregulation processes, we might not expect a constant and identical correlation for a group of countries. We performed both a constant (OLS) and a time-varying (Kalman filter) estimation of the investment-savings coefficient for Argentina, Brazil and Chile. As expected, the time-varying model presented a better fit, but our findings suggested that the investment-savings correlation is a misleading measure of capital mobility.

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Latin American and Caribbean countries: a panel cointegration analysis

In this paper, the recently developed panel unit root and the Pedroni cointegration tests are applied to empirically examine the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (F–H puzzle) for a heterogeneous panel of 14 Latin American and five Caribbean countries over the period, 1960–2002. The findings indicate that in these countries, the long-run solvency condition is maintained. Finally, employing the Pedroni panel group FM-OLS estimator (2000, 2001), it is found that the statistically significant estimated savings-retention coefficient for the panel is relatively small indicating that the F–H Puzzle is not valid and thus implying the prevalence of a moderate degree of capital mobility.

European integration and external sustainability of the European Union: an application of the thesis of Feldstein and Horioka

The Feldstein–Horioka thesis was considered one of the greatest puzzles in economics. Formulated to measure international capital mobility, it has known a process of immunization to be conformed to empirical evidence and respect econometric knowledge. We apply to EU countries a formulation of this thesis which is adequate to test external sustainability and measure international capital mobility. Applying appropriate econometric methods we can accept the hypothesis of external unsustainability for the EU before the enlargement. The enlargement allows the external sustainability of the new EU. The lesser mobility of capital in the countries of the enlargement must be considered as a positive shock on EU industry of financial services.

Capital mobility in saving and investment: A time-varying coefficients approach

This paper uses a model with time-varying coefficients in order to track changes in Feldstein–Horioka saving-retention coefficients over time. To the extent that such coefficients measure international capital mobility, the main empirical findings are as follows. First, the stability of the saving-retention coefficient is strongly rejected. Second, capital has long been perfectly mobile in Canada. Third, capital mobility has never been high in the United States. Fourth, capital was more mobile in Japan and the United Kingdom at the turn of the 20th century than it has been during the postwar period. Capital mobility has risen in Argentina, Italy and Sweden since around 1970. Finally, capital mobility for most of the countries considered has not monotonically increased during the postwar period.

Trade Costs, Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

Simple tests for cointegration in panels with structural breaks

In the article we propose new panel cointegration tests which allow for structural breaks. We show that the panel tests have good size and power. We apply the test statistics to the analysis of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for a sample of 16 OCDE countries. After allowing for breaks, we find strong evidence that investment and saving rates are cointegrated.

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle revisited: Is the home-bias much less?

The large correlation between domestic savings and investment is well documented and is known as the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. We demonstrate that estimates of the FH coefficients using the standard framework are biased upward in the presence of highly positively correlated inward and outward capital flows. Using data for the 14 OECD countries, the analysis shows that the significant home bias documented by FH and others is also consistent with much higher levels of capital mobility when capital outflows and inflows are highly positively correlated. Taking account for these correlations reduces the estimated home bias somewhere between 45% and 90%.

Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience

This paper investigates whether the recent experience of the emerging East Asian countries with current account surpluses is consistent with the “saving glut” hypothesis and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The evidence suggests that the saving retention coefficients declined substantially in most of the countries after an endogenous break date coinciding with a major exchange rate regime change with the 1997–1998 crisis. Exchange rate flexibility appears to be enhancing financial integration. The results are consistent with an “investment slump” explanation rather than the “saving glut” postulation.