Favorable Scenario Research Articles

A synthesis of the National-scale Geochemical Survey in the last 50 years in Brazil

At the end of the 19th century, classical geochemistry arrived in Brazil through Henri Gorceix, being primarily used in his studies of mineralogy and petrology. Meanwhile, exploration geochemical arrives later, in the mid-20th century. But it was only in the late 1960s that systematic survey at the national level began, starting with the creation of CPRM - Geological Service of Brazil, culminating in over 50 years of uninterrupted activities, providing coverage of the entire country at various scales: global (7.3%), national (6.2%), regional (22.7%), and local (2.3%). Throughout this period, 681 projects were carried out and a variety of sample matrices were collected, such as stream sediment (226,792), soil (122,202), heavy-mineral pan concentrate (107,959), rock (56,807), among others (8,258), totaling 522,018 samples so far. All this collection has been progressively recovered, compiled, and organized into a robust public database (open access), developed by CPRM - Geological Service of Brazil. More recently, high-density geochemical surveys were conducted in partnership with the China Geological Survey with the aim of comparing analytical and sampling methodologies. For the future (until 2050), two main actions are planned: 1) an expectation of an increase in the coverage of high-density prospecting surveys, ranging from 951,386 km² (restrictive scenario: 11.2% of Brazilian territory) to 2,204,778 km² (favorable scenario: 25.9% of Brazilian territory); 2) a forecast of Brazil's participation in the Global Geochemical Baselines Program, where sampling will be subdivided by regions – North (736), Central-West (225), Northeast (305), and South-Southeast (343) – totaling 1,609 sampling cells.

High-performance BFT consensus for Metaverse through block linking and shortcut loop

In recent years, the Metaverse has captured increasing attention. As the foundational technologies for these digital realms, blockchain systems and their critical component—the Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) consensus protocol—significantly influence the performance of Metaverse. Due to vulnerabilities to network attacks, synchronous and partially synchronous consensus protocols often face compromises in their liveness or security. Consequently, recent efforts in BFT consensus have shifted towards asynchronous consensus protocols, notably the Multi-valued Validated Binary Agreement (MVBA) protocols, with sMVBA being particularly prominent. Despite its advances, sMVBA struggles to meet the high-performance demands of Metaverse applications. Each sMVBA instance commits only one block, discarding all others, which severely restricts throughput. Moreover, if a leader in a given view crashes, nodes must rebroadcast blocks in the subsequent view, resulting in increased latency.To overcome these challenges, this paper introduces Mercury, a protocol designed to enhance throughput under various conditions and reduce latency in less favorable scenarios where leaders are crashed. Mercury incorporates a mechanism whereby each block contains hashes from blocks of a previous instance, linking blocks across instances. This structure ensures that once a block is committed, all its linked blocks are also committed, thereby boosting throughput. Additionally, Mercury integrates a ‘shortcut loop’ mechanism, allowing nodes to bypass the last phase of the current view and the block broadcasting in the next view, significantly decreasing latency. Our experimental evaluations of Mercury confirm its superior performance. Compared to the cutting-edge protocols, sMVBA, CKPS, and AMS, Mercury boosts throughput by 1.03X, 1.65X, and 2.51X, respectively.

Analysis of the Economic-Financial Viability of Setting up a Motorcycle Parts Store in the City of Santa Izabel do Pará

Objective: Analyze the economic and financial viability of implementing a motorcycle parts store in the municipality of Santa Izabel do Pará. Theoretical Framework: Brazil is one of the most entrepreneurial countries in the world, and the activities of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs contribute to the country's economic and social development. However, many businesses end up closing down early on. The success of a new business depends on the development of an adequate plan, which will allow the entrepreneur to evaluate the different factors that make up the venture before even starting it. The business plan is a tool that allows the entrepreneur to organize and plan their ideas to achieve the success of their business. Method: This work was carried out as bibliographical research and a case study, to be applied, of an exploratory nature with a qualitative and quantitative approach, with the carrying out of an unstructured interview with an entrepreneur in the motorcycle parts sector. Results and Discussion: The results of the financial indicators show a favorable scenario for the implementation of the business, with a NPV value of R$ 460,979.24, over a five-year cash flow, an internal rate of return of 153% per year and an estimated return on investment period of 8 months. Research Implications: To carry out a business venture, it is necessary to dedicate many hours of work, in addition to a considerable financial investment. And the financial plan allows the entrepreneur to translate into numbers how viable the implementation of the business is. Originality/Value: Although all financial indicators indicate the viability of the business, after the implementation of the enterprise it will be possible to improve the different sectors of the company and adjust the negative points during the activities, such as, for example, carrying out a satisfaction survey with customers who are buying in the store, aligning negotiations with suppliers in the best way and offering new products.

Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search: an efficient and versatile quantum phase estimation method

Quantum phase estimation is one of the most powerful quantum primitives. This work proposes a new approach for the problem of multiple eigenvalue estimation: Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search (QMEGS). QMEGS leverages the Hadamard test circuit structure and only requires simple classical postprocessing. QMEGS is the first algorithm to simultaneously satisfy the following two properties: (1) It can achieve the Heisenberg-limited scaling without relying on any spectral gap assumption. (2) With a positive energy gap and additional assumptions on the initial state, QMEGS can estimate all dominant eigenvalues to ϵ accuracy utilizing a significantly reduced circuit depth compared to the standard quantum phase estimation algorithm. In the most favorable scenario, the maximal runtime can be reduced to as low as log⁡(1/ϵ). This implies that QMEGS serves as an efficient and versatile approach, achieving the best-known results for both gapped and gapless systems. Numerical results validate the efficiency of our proposed algorithm in various regimes.

Technical and economic analysis of digitally controlled substations in local district heating networks

Since the 1990s, there has been a noticeable increase in the establishment of local district heating networks in Germany, coinciding with the use of thermal energy from biogas and biomass facilities. Historically, the prioritization of economically efficient heat utilization was subdued due to favorable electricity feed-in tariffs. However, with the expiration of Renewable Energy Sources Act subsidies, operators shifted focus to the operational costs of district heating networks. This study aims to examine the effects of optimizing controllers and valves at district heating substations in single-family homes, utilizing two local district heating networks. The emphasis is on evaluating impacts on operating costs and determining whether the economic and energetic benefits justify implementation. Simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink Simscape depict both consumers and district heating networks individually, without aggregation. In the most favorable scenario, investing in enhancing substation controllers in single-family homes is projected to yield returns after 13 years. Comprehensive optimization of all substation controls in single-family homes can potentially result in up to 9% savings in thermal energy demand due to reduced heat losses and a corresponding 9% reduction in electrical power consumption for the main pump.

Managing platelets supply chain under uncertainty: A two-stage collaborative robust programming approach

This study investigates the role of horizontal collaboration among blood centers in mitigating the negative impacts of fluctuations in blood platelet supply and demand during normal circumstances and after sudden-onset disasters. Specifically, four scenarios are studied: no collaboration, collaboration among blood centers, collaboration among hospitals, and collaboration among blood centers and hospitals. To formulate these scenarios, we propose a two-stage robust programming model that enables decision-makers to monitor the collaborative behavior of blood centers and hospitals before and after changes in supply and demand occur. In the first stage, a robust optimization approach is developed to cope with supply and demand uncertainties, where collaboration is limited to blood centers. In the second stage, the uncertain parameters (supply and demand) are treated as deterministic. The key decision is how to transfer platelets among hospitals located in a collaborative cluster. This research uses benchmark data from previous studies to test and validate the developed model and solution approach. Comparing the results obtained in different scenarios, we systematically select the most favorable scenario in terms of model performance under normal and emergency situations. The final results indicate that the network achieves the highest performance when blood centers and hospitals participate in the grand coalition.

Shrimp-shaped structure and period-bubbling route to chaos in a one-dimensional economic model.

A beautiful feature of nature is its complexity. The chaos theory has proved useful in a variety of fields, including physics, chemistry, biology, and economics. In the present article, we explore the complex dynamics of a rather simple one-dimensional economic model in a parameter plane. We find several organized zones of "chaos and non-chaos" and different routes to chaos in this model. The study reveals that even this one-dimensional model can generate intriguing shrimp-shaped structures immersed within the chaotic regime of the parameter plane. We also observe shrimp-induced period-bubbling phenomenon, three times self-similarity of shrimp-shaped structures, and a variety of bistable behaviors. The emergence of shrimp-shaped structures in chaotic regimes can enable us to achieve favorable economic scenarios (periodic) from unfavorable ones (chaotic) by adjusting either one or both of the control parameters over broad regions of these structures. Moreover, our results suggest that depending on the parameters and initial conditions, a company may go bankrupt, or its capital may rise or fall in a regular or irregular manner.

Comparative thermoeconomic analysis of integrated hybrid multigeneration systems with hydrogen production for waste heat recovery in cement plants

The cement industry is a widely used and energy-consuming sector, making it one of the largest CO2 emitters, primarily to meet its energy demands. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the waste heat recovery process from a cement factory to fulfill a portion of its energy requirements. In this study, four scenarios have been evaluated, including power production scenarios, hydrogen production scenarios, methanation production process evaluation scenarios, blending hydrogen with natural gas, oxy-fuel combustion scenarios, and scenarios for producing the required freshwater for the factory and the water electrolysis process. The results show that the steam Rankine cycle with the reheating process and the organic Rankine cycle with methanol working fluid with a production capacity of 24.35 MW, and a payback period of 2.4 years with levelized cost of energy being 0.005809 $/kWh, is the most favorable scenario for the power generation cycle. Also, the process of alkaline electrolysis with a hydrogen production rate of 0.1648 kg/s, and a payback period of 5.816 years, and also with the levelized cost of hydrogen being 1.001 $/kg, happened to be the most suitable hydrogen production scenario compared to other electrolysis scenarios such as PEM and SOEC. Moreover, the process of water desalination by reverse osmosis with the energy consumption of 2.7 MW of power is capable of supplying all the required water of the factory and the water electrolysis process, and it was determined as the most suitable scenario for supplying the required water.

Estimation of the ecological integrity of the Guadiana River using Partial Least Squares Path Modelling and simulation scenarios

Ecological integrity is fundamental to human life and ecosystems, so its assessment and management are crucial. This concept assesses ecosystem health by examining physico-chemical and biological characteristics, riparian vegetation and macroinvertebrate communities. In recent decades, water resources have undergone significant changes due to various factors that have contributed to the physical, chemical and biological pollution of water. To address this problem, a specific model has been developed using the Partial Least Squares Path Modelling methodology to analyse and quantify the main factors affecting the ecological integrity of the Spanish part of the Guadiana River (Spain). The variables analysed at the different sampling points in the catchment include forest cover, anthropogenic pressure, water quality and biological integrity. Water quality and biological integrity, in turn, constitute the concept of ecological integrity. The model predicts 60.3 % of the physico-chemical water quality and 56.6 % of the biological integrity, showing that ¨Forest cover¨ negatively impacts water quality (W = −0.476) by reducing pollution, while ¨Anthropogenic Pressure¨ positively impacts it (W = 0.680) by increasing pollution. Based on the modelling, three future scenarios were designed, from the lowest to the highest pressure considering changes in riparian forest quality based on QBR and changes in the number of reservoirs: a favourable scenario with high riparian forest quality and no reservoirs; an intermediate scenario with good riparian forest quality and no change in the number of reservoirs; and an unfavourable scenario, characterised by very poor riparian forest quality and an increase in the number of reservoirs. In this context, the importance of the conservation and enhancement of riparian vegetation as a nature-based solution is highlighted, as well as the pressure generated by industrial activity and agricultural practices on the ecological integrity of the study area. The favourable scenario, with very good quality riparian vegetation, improves water quality by up to 85 %, positively impacting the ecological integrity of the river. In contrast, the unfavourable scenario, with extremely degraded riparian forest, would decrease water quality by up to 62 %, negatively affecting ecological integrity. Modelling and future scenarios is an essential tool in the decision-making process to improve environmental governance and water security. In addition, the PLS-PM methodology allows the identification and quantification of relationships between complex variables, providing a solid basis for the design of effective environmental management strategies.

Historical and cultural dimensions of the philosophy of the future: globalisation and identity

The purpose of the research is to highlight the prospects for the influence of philosophy in the context of the socio-cultural dichotomy associated with the confrontation between the principles of globalisation and identity. The turn of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries was marked by a focus on the synergistic potential in the worldview paradigm, which corresponded to the meanings of global character. At the same time, the dialectical component of society's development has retained its influence, expressing the desire of a person or community to preserve identity. The purpose of the article is to identify the specifics of philosophical thought within the two dominant dimensions of socio-cultural progress - interaction and confrontation. Achieving a balance between these two tendencies is the key to harmonising the world picture and avoiding destructive manifestations of a socio-cultural nature. The methodological basis of the study is focused on the analysis of philosophical ideas on the historical and cultural status of man, society and civilisation. The analysis of scientific and philosophical works was carried out within the framework of a variation sample, which allowed to use both philosophical and dialectical, as well as synergistic methodological potential. The results of the study point to the levelling of the positions of the philosophical interpretation of globalisation and identity in the socio-cultural discourse. The analysis of 50 philosophical works published over the past five years has demonstrated approximately equal indicators in the cultural and historical characteristics of social activity. This indicates that the worldview paradigm of our time is at the stage of choosing a strategy for civilisational development, considering the two most popular ways of development: globalisation and identity. The research perspectives are focused on the role of philosophical interpretation of the prospects for socio-cultural development. Strategic thinking is an advantage of the philosophical potential in terms of forming a strategy for civilisational progress. Conclusion. Contemporary philosophical discourse is at the stage of determining the dominant strategy for the development of a person, community and humanity. Globalisation and identity reflect the principles of two fundamental worldviews - dialectics and synergy. The role of philosophy involves a thorough description of these two socio-cultural dimensions in order to determine a favourable scenario for the development of society.

Comprehensive life cycle assessment of garden organic waste valorisation: A case study in regional Australia

This study evaluates the environmental impacts associated with the conversion of garden organic waste into value-added products, namely compost or biochar, employing various processes. Three distinct scenarios are considered: composting garden organic waste followed by screening of oversized materials (CBP), pyrolysis of oversized screenings of compost into biochar AP(I), and in-situ conversion of garden organics into biochar AP(II). A comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was conducted using OpenLCA software and life cycle impact assessment was conducted using Recipe 2016 midpoint methodology. The environmental ramifications of each scenario were assessed, optimising transport distances in AP(II) to achieve a functional unit of one tonne of biochar produced within a cradle-to-gate system boundary. For the first time, this study offers a holistic exploration of the benefits of soil biochar application, extending its scope to climate change mitigation, incorporating the optimisation of transport distance and its influence when scaling up the technology. The results revealed that global warming was increased from 125 kgCO2 eq during composting of garden waste to 232 kgCO2 eq where oversized screenings of compost is converted to biochar at an off-site facility. However, direct conversion of the oversized organic waste to biochar, without composting, showed reduced global warming impact of 56 kgCO2 eq, and is thus the most favourable scenario to limit climate impacts of this fraction of organic garden waste. However, among 18 environmental impact indicators studied, eight indicators were either not influenced or did not significantly increase by transport distance to an off-site pyrolysis facility, while the magnitude of 10 impact indicators increased with transport distance. The insights and methodologies presented in this study hold global relevance, based on an actual case study in regional Australia, offering valuable recommendations for sustainable waste management practices and establishing biochar as a carbon-neutral or carbon-negative solution. The findings contribute to existing waste management knowledge and provide guidance for accessible carbon dioxide removal and soil carbon sequestration technologies.

Strategic insights for sustainable growth of mushroom farming industry in Bangladesh: A comprehensive evaluation using SWOT-AHP and TOPSIS frameworks

Mushroom farming using agri-waste as substrates can offer a sustainable solution to the food security challenges of inadequate and imbalanced diets. Developing strategies to exploit the potential of the mushroom industry fully is yet to be explored in Bangladesh. We, thus, conducted this study to investigate the challenges and opportunities associated with mushroom farming, as well as the characteristics of farms and employees engaged in this industry. A directional stepwise multiple regression analysis showed self-motivation, spawn cost, farm size, and training are the key influencing factors driving profitability. Farm surveys identified SWOT factors with 24 sub-factors cross-validated with expert consultations. The sub-factors were categorized as beneficial (strength and opportunities) and cost (weakness and threats) to formulate the SWOT strategies using the Grey-TOPSIS method. Results indicate a favorable scenario exists for the industry in Bangladesh, with significant opportunities (group weight 0.53) and minimal threats (group weight 0.09). We proposed 12 strategic alternatives for the sustainable growth of this industry. This top-ranking strategy is not only to secure funding (relative closeness, C+ = 0.87) but also to provide more accessible loan options envisioning a strategic expansion of business operations in Bangladesh. The evaluation highlighted the significance of collaboration with other mushroom farmers to maximize the gain in marketing that will substantially expand the local demand (C+ = 0.697). Besides, product diversification is also underscored as an important strategy for the growth of the industry. These prioritized SWOT strategies lay the groundwork for policy development, aiding decision-makers in steering the mushroom industry towards sustainable growth for developing countries like Bangladesh. Promoting such an eco-friendly industry will generate ample opportunities for women's employment and appreciable profit while contributing to environmental improvement through recycling agri-waste.

Unlocking the Potential of Zero-tillage Farming: Challenges, Opportunities, and Key Influences on Adoption

Zero tillage (ZT) is a crucial agricultural strategy that prioritizes little soil disturbance. This research investigates the future possibilities of ZT, concentrating on three critical dimensions: technology developments, climate change considerations, and possible rise in adoption rates. Precision agriculture, robotics, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology have been shown to play a critical role in improving ZT efficiency and sustainability. These advancements enable more intelligent and focused methods, lowering waste and harmonizing farming operations with overall sustainability goals. Climate change is also a crucial factor in influencing ZT's future. ZT's intrinsic qualities of soil moisture conservation, decreased erosion, and carbon sequestration make it an effective technique for climate mitigation and adaptation. According to the report, the worldwide need to address climate change may serve as a stimulus for ZT expansion, linking it with crucial agricultural initiatives in the future. The possible rise in ZT adoption rates is investigated in light of these technological and environmental aspects. The findings indicate that technology's role in eliminating obstacles and increasing efficiency, together with government and organizational backing, might encourage widespread ZT adoption, particularly in developing nations. Collaborative efforts among multiple stakeholders, including researchers, policymakers, farmers, and industry, are emphasized as critical to optimizing ZT for different situations and requirements. Zero Tillage's future possibilities are broad and varied, characterized by technical innovation, compatibility with climate goals, and a clear route to widespread implementation. The combination of these variables offers a favorable scenario for ZT, establishing it as a key technique in developing sustainable agriculture in the future. This study adds to our understanding of ZT's future trajectory and provides insights that can help direct its ongoing evolution and effect in the agriculture sector.

Production of phosphate biofertilizers as a booster for the techno-economic and environmental performance of a first-generation sugarcane ethanol and sugar biorefinery

The intensive use of fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture has a significant economic and environmental impact worldwide. Biofertilizers (aka microbial inoculants) could be a potential alternative to decrease costs and the environmental footprint linked to the use of fertilizers while boosting productivity through biological processes. This work aimed to perform a techno-economic-environmental assessment of an industrial biofertilizer production facility integrated with a sugarcane ethanol biorefinery. To this end, systems engineering tools were employed concurrently with techno-economic-environmental analyses to assess the integration of the different processes and their feasibility. Three processes for biofertilizer production are proposed varying in terms of downstream processing and the use of single or double microorganisms. Our findings indicate that the integration of biofertilizer production can enhance the biorefinery's NPV by as much as 137% in the most favorable scenario and by a minimum of 69% in the most unfavorable scenario. Regarding environmental consequences, in general, all scenarios demonstrate an improvement over the base scenario. Global sensitivity analysis showed that the solid-state fermentation and composite formulation steps of the biofertilizer process have the most substantial influence on both economic and environmental outcomes. The uncertainty analysis further unveils that the scenarios without fungus separation exhibited greater resilience in the face of market volatility. The retro-techno-economic study defined the economically viable region. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that the integration of biofertilizers into an ethanol and sugar biorefinery is a more sustainable alternative than the isolated biorefinery regarding the environmental and techno-economic aspects of sustainability.

Assessment of building design strategies to enhance energy efficiency and thermal comfort: Case study in Morocco’s climate zones

Energy efficiency in the context of building design is a significant concern in Morocco. This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of how various design variables can impact both energy consumption and thermal comfort in the Moroccan context. Rather than isolating individual design variables, we investigate synergistic combinations of these variables. To achieve this, we develop multiple building design scenarios, each employing different combinations of design options, focusing on building orientation, window-to-wall ratio, building envelope construction, and window shading. We use EnergyPlus to conduct energy simulations for all scenarios under the hypothesis of air-conditioned houses and free-running houses with and without natural ventilation. Our results reveal that building design has the potential to significantly enhance energy efficiency and thermal comfort, but not for the same design strategies. In comparison to the most energy-efficient design scenario, the least favorable design scenario can lead to an increase in energy consumption between 237% in Agadir and 130% in Ifrane. Meanwhile, design scenarios favoring comfort can increase the number of comfortable hours by 85% in Agadir and 59% in Ifrane. We identify optimal building design scenarios that simultaneously offer the highest comfort levels with the lowest energy requirements. The findings provide valuable guidance for architects, allowing them to design high-performance buildings in all climate zones in Morocco.

Association between detection rate of norovirus GII and climatic factors in the Northwest Amazon region

Worldwide, approximately one fifth of all cases of diarrhea are associated with norovirus, mainly in children, with a defined seasonality in temperate climates, but seasonal dynamics are less known in tropical climates. The objective was to investigate the impact of external clinical, epidemiological, and climatic factors on norovirus detection rates in samples from children under 5 years of age from Roraima, the Amazon region of Brazil. A total of 941 samples were included. According to climatic factors, we observed correlations between external climatic factors and weekly positivity rates, where temperature (P = 0.002), relative humidity (P = 0.0005), absolute humidity (P < 0.0001) and wind speed had the strongest effect (P = 0.0006). The Brazilian Amazon region presents a typical and favorable scenario for the persistence, expansion, and distribution of viral gastroenteritis. ImportanceThis study is important as it will serve as a basis for studies carried out in Brazil and Latin American countries on the epidemiological importance, seasonality, climate change, antigenic diversity, among other factors in the circulation of gastroenteric virus.

Profitability Analysis of a Prosumer Photovoltaic Installation in Light of Changing Electricity Billing Regulations in Poland

The evolving legislation regarding electricity billing for both consumers and prosumers, coupled with the growing interest in photovoltaic installations with energy storage, provided the motivation to examine the operational and financial viability of a prosumer photovoltaic installation located in Poland. Two options were considered: a standard photovoltaic system without energy storage and an installation with batteries. Furthermore, four scenarios were analyzed, each reflecting a different way of accounting for the electricity bought and sold by the prosumer. Another scenario is that energy prices are influenced by a high share of renewable sources. As the changes to the billing scheme are a recent development, there is no relevant analysis currently available. In order to ensure the reliability of the analysis, PVsyst 7.4 software was employed to establish the main performance and financial parameters for the selected PV systems. Analysis showed that using an energy storage system will increase the energy self-consumption from 28.6% to 60.4%, which in some cases would have a great influence on profitability of the investment. In the worst scenario, the payback period is too long (13.7 years). But in the most favorable scenario, with additional financing, it drops to 3.9 years.

Exploring enhanced heat transfer in wavy porous enclosures: Optimization and analysis of ternary nanofluid integration under varied boundary conditions with MHD mixed convection

This study explores the application of Al2O3-ZnO-Fe3O4/Water ternary nanofluids for enhanced thermal management in engineering applications, addressing the MHD Darcy–Forchheimer problem with an emphasis on optimizing cooling processes in a 2D-wavy cavity under various moving boundary conditions. Aimed at surpassing the limitations of conventional cooling fluids, the research employs the finite volume method within the OpenFOAM® framework to investigate the impact of nanofluid integration on heat transfer efficiency and entropy generation, utilizing partial heating and eight distinct boundary scenarios. By comparing the performance of ternary nanofluids against that of hybrid and mono nanofluids, we identify optimal conditions that significantly enhance cooling effectiveness, as evidenced by a 37% improvement in heat exchange efficiency over water. The findings demonstrate the superior performance of Al2O3-ZnO-Fe3O4/Water nanofluids in achieving higher average Nusselt numbers at low Darcy numbers, despite an increase in entropy. Optimal conditions were identified for the most favorable scenario involving the movement of cavity lids, based on the Nusselt number, specifically in Case 7 (ul1+ and ul2−). Decreasing the number of waves in the cavity enhances heat transfer and reduces irreversibility. Finally, the study shows that the influence of lid motion on skin friction significantly varies with Richardson numbers, and the use of nanofluids over pure water notably reduces skin friction.

Limited drought tolerance in the neotropical seasonally dry forest plants impairs future species richness.

Neotropical seasonal dry forest (NSDF) is one of the most threatened ecosystems according to global climate change predictions. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated the global climate change impacts on diversity patterns of NSDF plants. The lack of whole biome-scale approaches restricts our understanding of global climate change consequences in the high beta-diverse NSDF. We analysed the impact of global climate change on species distribution ranges, species richness, and assemblage composition (beta diversity) for 1,178 NSDF species. We used five representative plant families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) within the NSDF: Cactaceae, Capparaceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, and Zygophyllaceae. We reconstructed potential species distributions in the present and future (2040-2080), considering an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and two dispersal ability assumptions on the taxa. Using a resource use scores index, we related climate-induced range contractions with species' water stress tolerance. Even under a favourable dispersal scenario, species distribution and richness showed future significant declines across those sites where mean temperature and precipitation seasonality are expected to increase. Further, changes in species range distribution in the future correlated positively with potential use of resources in Fabaceae. Results suggest that biotic heterogenization will likely be the short-term outcome at biome scale under dispersal limitations. Nonetheless, by 2080, the prevailing effect under both dispersal assumptions will be homogenization, even within floristic nuclei. This information is critical for further defining new areas worth protecting and future planning of mitigation actions for both species and the whole biome.

Relationship between Synoptic Weather Patterns and Topography on Snowfall in the Idaho Mountainous Regions during the SNOWIE Project

Abstract Snowpack melting is a crucial water resource for local ecosystems, agriculture, and hydropower in the Intermountain West of the United States. Glaciogenic seeding, a method widely used in mountain regions to enhance precipitation, has been subject to numerous field studies aiming to understand and validate this mechanism. However, investigating precipitation distribution and amounts in mountainous areas is complicated due to the intricate interplay of synoptic circulation patterns and local complex topography. These interactions significantly influence microphysical processes, ultimately affecting the amount and distribution of surface precipitation. To address these challenges, this study leverages Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, providing high-resolution (900 m), hourly data, spanning the Payette region of Idaho from January to March 2017. We applied the self-organizing map approach to categorize the most representative synoptic circulation patterns and conducted a multiscale analysis to explore their associated environmental conditions and microphysical processes, aiming to assess the cloud seeding potential. The analysis identified four primary synoptic patterns: cold zonal flow (CZF), cold southwesterly flow (CSWF), warm zonal flow (WZF), and warm southwesterly flow (WSWF), constituting 21.3%, 23.1%, 30.0%, and 25.5%, respectively. CSWF and WSWF demonstrated efficiency in generating natural precipitation. These patterns were characterized by abundant supercooled liquid water (SLW) and ice particles, facilitating cloud droplet growth through seeder–feeder processes. On the other hand, CZF exhibited the least SLW and limited potential for cloud seeding, while WZF displayed a lower ice water content but substantial SLW in the diffusion/dendritic growth layer, suggesting a favorable scenario for cloud seeding. Significance Statement Understanding snowfall amounts and distribution in the mountains and how it is linked to topography, synoptic flow, and microphysical processes will help in the development of effective strategies for cloud seeding operations, managing runoff, reservoir, and mitigating flood risks, garnering substantial interest from stakeholders and the government agencies.