Favourable Conservation Status Research Articles

Rise to fame: events, media activity and public interest in pangolins and pangolin trade, 2005–2016

Attention focused on pangolins (Pholidota) and the threats posed to their survival and welfare by international trade (for use in Chinese Traditional Medicine and the Asian wild meat market) has skyrocketed across all digital information platforms over the last decade. Previously obscure and often referred to as the ‘mammal you’ve never heard of’, pangolins are now widely recognised as an icon of the illegal wildlife trade. We document the events that led to the pangolins’ ‘rise to fame’, culminating in its Appendix I listing by CITES in September 2016 and a global commercial trade ban and explore temporal co-occurrence between events and peaks in media activity and public interest with the aim of identifying events (or types of events) that may have been influential in terms of awareness-raising. More broadly, our objective was to highlight lessons in public communication that might be applied to awareness campaigns for other lesser-known threatened species. We found no evidence that any particular type of event was more likely to generate a significant media/public response than any other, but peaks in public interest co-occurred with reports of pangolin seizures, highlighting the importance of news coverage of these incidents. Further, although neither editorial nor social media peaks were strongly correlated with the timing of events, they sometimes co-occurred with different events and each differed in their coverage of different types of events, suggesting that editorial and social media have independent and distinct roles to play in conservation communication. However, despite their iconic status, public interest in pangolins is still not equivalent to that directed at, for example, tigers, elephants or lions, so efforts need to be sustained. Finally, we note that, although attention can help to generate funds and influence policy, this alone will not be enough to achieve a favourable conservation status for pangolins – on-going and future work need to ensure that public enthusiasm for this species is translated into effective protection.

Landscape trajectory of natural boreal forest loss as an impediment to green infrastructure.

Loss of natural forests by forest clearcutting has been identified as a critical conservation challenge worldwide. This study addressed forest fragmentation and loss in the context of the establishment of a functional green infrastructure as a spatiotemporally connected landscape-scale network of habitats enhancing biodiversity, favorable conservation status, and ecosystem services. Through retrospective analysis of satellite images, we assessed a 50- to 60-year spatiotemporal clearcutting impact trajectory on natural and near-natural boreal forests across a sizable and representative region from the Gulf of Bothnia to the Scandinavian Mountain Range in northern Fennoscandia. This period broadly covers the whole forest clearcutting period; thus, our approach and results can be applied to comprehensive impact assessment of industrial forest management. The entire study region covers close to 46,000km2 of forest-dominated landscape in a late phase of transition from a natural or near-natural to a land-use modified state. We found a substantial loss of intact forest, in particular of large, contiguous areas, a spatial polarization of remaining forest on regional scale where the inland has been more severely affected than the mountain and coastal zones, and a pronounced impact on interior forest core areas. Salient results were a decrease in area of the largest intact forest patch from 225,853 to 68,714ha in the mountain zone and from 257,715 to 38,668ha in the foothills zone, a decrease from 75% to 38% intact forest in the inland zones, a decrease in largest patch core area (assessed by considering 100-m patch edge disturbance) from 6114 to 351ha in the coastal zone, and a geographic imbalance in protected forest with an evident predominance in the mountain zone. These results demonstrate profound disturbance of configuration of the natural forest landscape and disrupted connectivity, which challenges the establishment of functional green infrastructure. Our approach supports the identification of forests for expanded protection and conservation-oriented forest landscape restoration.

The Hunting of Strictly Protected Species: The Tapiola Case and the Limits of Derogation under Article 16 of the Habitats Directive

Whether or under what circumstances the hunting of species listed as strictly protected in the Habitats Directive's Annex IV can be allowed has been the subject of extensive controversy and litigation in several Member States. Finland has asked the Court of Justice for a preliminary ruling on several questions, the answers to which will have wide-reaching consequences for how species are protected in the EU. This article addresses these questions, in particular the permissibility of the management hunting of strictly protected species, the permissibility of allowing hunting with the goal of preventing poaching, and at what scale the "favourable conservation status" of species populations should be considered. It argues that exploitive hunting of strictly protected species is not consistent with the purpose of the Habitats Directive, that hunting for the purpose of preventing poaching cannot be considered a conserva- tion measure under the Habitats Directive, and that species' conservation status should be considered unfavourable for the purposes of derogation if it is unfavourable at the local population level, the Member State level, or the EU level. It concludes by discussing the consequences of this analysis for hunting in the EU more broadly.

National Governance Approach for Agriculture Land in Natura 2000 Areas. Evidence from Plovdiv District, Bulgaria

The designation and implementation of Natura 2000 sites faced many challenges across most of the member states in the EC. Some related to consultation and involvement of stakeholders, funding the conservation objectives and providing compensation to land owners, farmers and foresters for restrictions on their land use. The national governments adopted different approaches to address these issues. The aim of the paper is to assess the governance approach for agricultural land in Natura 2000 in Bulgaria with a focus on the contribution of the Natura 2000 compensatory payments. The results suggest that the measure is instrumental in mitigating farmers’ frustration and in providing support to them; although its contribution to the favourable conservation status is still uncertain. Another weakness is the lack of awareness on Natura 2000 location and restrictions as well as on nature-friendly farming practices among farmers.

Effects of long-term mowing on coenological composition and recovery routes of a Brachypodium rupestre-invaded community: insight into the restoration of sub-Mediterranean productive grasslands

In low-mountain secondary grasslands of central Apennines, grazing cessation and undergrazing foster Brachypodium rupestre invasion, threatening the 6210* habitat (92/43/EEC Directive). The research aim was to understand the effect of multi-annual mowing and litter removal on recovery of coenological composition of a B. rupestre-invaded grassland. One hectare of grassland was mown, in late June and October, for 6 years, removing litter and hay. Before the first yearly mowing, we collected species and litter cover in 30 randomly selected plots (0.5 × 0.5 m). Festuco-Brometea/Festuco-Ononidetea species promptly increased, in number and abundance, in response to B. rupestre and litter removal, but decreased in the second half of the treatment, being partly replaced by Molinio-Arrhenatheretea species, progressively fostered by litter reduction. Litter removal also explained the increase in abundance of Sedo-Scleranthetea/Helianthemetea guttati species, whose richness peaked at treatment end, indicating the potential for higher species richness and the formation of patches of 6110* and 6220* habitats. Fringe and successional species decreased in richness and abundance, without a linear trend. The number of diagnostic taxa of the 6210* habitat increased significantly with the reduction of B. rupestre and litter, although the frequency/abundance of most of them did not change significantly, indicating that the studied community could be still considered habitat of community interest, although in a low conservation status. The treatment was effective in restoring grassland composition, although the achievement and maintenance of a favourable conservation status for the 6210* habitat require a long-term management planning, including sheep grazing during late spring/summer.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species.

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.

Assessment of ecosystem functioning from space: Advancements in the Habitats Directive implementation

The Habitats Directive (HD) and the Natura 2000 network establish a common framework for maintaining European natural habitats in a favourable conservation status and represent the main instrument used by conservation decision makers in the European Union. Habitat conservation status depends on the sum of the influences acting upon the habitat and its typical species that may affect its long-term natural distribution, structure and functions. Thus, ecosystem functioning is influenced by the diversity, number and functional traits of the species occurring in a habitat. Although the HD establishes that representative species should be selected to reflect favourable structure and functioning of the habitat type, it would not be realistic to associate species with all aspects of structure and functioning given the variability of Annex I habitats. This constraint led us to seek new approaches that allow a more direct assessment of the ecosystem functioning for natural habitats in space and time. We propose a remote sensing-based approach to characterize and assess the ecosystem functioning of habitats. As a case study, we applied our approach to three Mediterranean natural habitat types from the Iberian Peninsula included in Annex I of the Habitats Directive, i.e., Mediterranean sclerophyllous forest, Mediterranean deciduous forest and Sub-Mediterranean and temperate scrub. First, we estimated two key descriptors of ecosystem functioning derived from the Enhanced Vegetation Index and related them to primary production dynamics by using satellite images captured by the MODIS sensor for each year between 2001 and 2012. Second, we arranged these functional descriptors in two-dimensional space and calculated the distances from the habitats assessed to the reference sites, i.e., habitat patches that showed an optimal conservation status of composition and structure. Then, the distances were averaged over the period, and the habitats were categorized according to their mean distances as favourable or unfavourable-inadequate or unfavourable-bad, as outlined in the reporting guidelines under Article 17 of the Directive. Our approach provides new procedures to assess ecosystem functions across space and time, while complying with reporting obligations derived from the HD.

Toward objective assessment of the conservation status of (the Natura 2000) forest habitat types: A comparison of a qualitative and a quantitative modeling approach

To halt the loss of biodiversity in natural habitats, the EU passed the Habitats Directive and established the Natura 2000 network. The network captured forest habitats and habitat types, whose conservation status must be reported under Article 17 of the Directive. Hence, the harmonization of habitat assessment methods and reporting formats are a critical issue. So far, the EU Commission and Member States have managed to design and issue reporting guidelines. However, as many of these reports are largely based on expert opinions, they tend to be biased and incomparable. To make conservation status assessments and reporting more consistent, this study evaluated a set of indicators with two decision support models. The DEX model operated with linguistic statements derived from numerical values, while the fuzzy model utilized numeric input. Both models were tested with data from Slovenia's three largest forest habitat types (FHT), namely 9110 – Luzulo-Fagetum beech forests, 91K0 – Illyrian Fagus sylvatica forests (Aremonio-Fagion) and 91L0 – Illyrian oak-hornbeam forests (Erythronio-Carpinion), provided by the Forest and Forest Ecosystem Condition Survey. The DEX model produced uniform results and defined the conservation status of all three FHTs as least favorable. Conversely, the fuzzy model produced three different conservation status grades for the FHTs: a favorable conservation status for the 91K0 FHT, least favorable for the 9110 FHT and unfavorable for the 91L0 FHT. Its results were logical and in accord with the existing assessments. The study showed that both models could be used for the evaluation of FHT traits. However, because of its larger sensitivity, the fuzzy model allowed detecting subtle differences among the indicator values due to the use of continuous numerical data and more sophisticated mathematical procedures.

Diversion of Fishing Pressure on the Economically Important Species Barbus barbus (Linnaeus, 1758) to Protect the Community Interest Congeneric Barbus meridionalis Risso 1826, Based on a Decision-Support Management System

Abstract The ADONIS:CE instrument has been used in the field of congeners species, Barbus barbus – of economic interest and Barbus meridionalis – of conservation interest, to build a support-system model for management decision-making. Analysis of the habitat needs and the indicators for favorable conservation status have identified pressures and threats to these fish species for which management actions have been proposed. This management system favors the decrease of fishing pressure on Barbus meridionalis species by its transfer to Barbus barbus species.

Cottus gobio Linnaeus, 1758 Community Interest Species Conservation in Upper Târnava Mare River Basin, Through Fish Populations Rehabilitation for Brown Trout Zone Based on a Decision-Support Management System

Abstract The ADONIS: CE software has been used for two fish species, Cottus gobio, of conservation interest and Salmo trutta fario, of economic interest, to design an on-site (upper Târnava Mare River) adapted support-system model for management decision-making. Habitat needs and indicators of favourable conservation status have been investigated, pressures and threats to these fish species have been determined, and management elements have been suggested. This management system allows the proper organization of management measures for the renaturation of the local natural fish associations in the local brown trout zone.

Mapping range dynamics from opportunistic data: spatiotemporal modelling of the lynx distribution in the Alps over 21 years

AbstractThe Eurasian lynx is of special conservation concern based on the European Union's Habitat Directive and its populations need to be maintained or restored at favourable conservation status. To evaluate lynx population status, appropriate monitoring needs to be in place. We modelled the distribution dynamics of lynx in the Alps (200 000 km2) during 1994–2014 at a resolution of 100 km2. Lynx distribution and detection probability varied by year, country, forest cover, elevation and distance to the nearest release site. Occupancy of neighbouring quadrats had a strong positive effect on colonization and persistence rates. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for imperfect detection: the raw data underestimated the lynx range by 55% on average, depending on country and winter. Over the past 20 years the Alpine lynx range has expanded at an average rate of 4% per year, which was partly due to the lynx translocations to new areas. Our approach to large‐scale distribution modelling and analysing trends using site occupancy models can be applied retrospectively and is useful in many cases where a network of trained people is established to report the presence of target species, for example, in Europe where member states of the European Union have to report conservation status of species of community interest. Hence, dynamic occupancy models are an appealing framework for inference about the large‐scale range dynamics based on opportunistic data and a useful tool for large‐scale management and conservation programmes.

Quality of non-expert citizen science data collected for habitat type conservation status assessment in Natura 2000 protected areas

EU biodiversity conservation policy is based on the Habitats Directive (92/43/EC), which aims that habitat types and species of Community interest should reach ‘favourable conservation status’. To this end, Member States are obliged to perform periodic assessment of species and habitat conservation status through biodiversity monitoring, which, in almost all cases, was performed by experts implementing standardized field protocols. Here, we examine the quality of data collected in the field by non-experts (citizen scientists) for the conservation status assessment of habitat types, and specifically for the criteria ‘typical species’, ‘specific structures and functions’, and ‘pressures and threats’. This task is complicated and demands different types of field data. We visited two Natura 2000 sites and investigated four habitat types (two in each site) with non-experts and compared their data to the data collected by experts for accuracy, completeness and spatial arrangement. The majority of the non-expert data were accurate (i.e. non-experts recorded information they observed in the field), but they were incomplete (i.e. non-experts detected less information than the experts). Also, non-experts chose their sampling locations closer to the edge of the habitat, i.e. in more marginal conditions and thus in potentially more degraded conditions, than experts.

Robust monitoring of the Eurasian lynxLynx lynxin the Slovak Carpathians reveals lower numbers than officially reported

AbstractThe Eurasian lynxLynx lynxpopulation in the Carpathian Mountains is considered to be one of the best preserved and largest in Europe and hence is a source for past and current reintroduction projects in central Europe. However, its status in Slovakia has been reported to the European Commission on the basis of hunters´ reports and expert estimates that have never been validated by a robust scientific approach. We conducted the first camera-trapping surveys to estimate the density of Eurasian lynx in Slovakia by means of spatial capture–recapture models in two reference areas during 2011–2015. We estimated population density per 100 km2of suitable lynx habitat (posterior SD) as 0.58 ± SD 0.13 independent individuals (adults and subadults) in the Štiavnica Mountains and 0.81 ± SD 0.29 in Veľká Fatra National Park and surroundings. These are the lowest densities estimated using spatial capture–recapture models so far reported for the species, suggesting the lynx population in Slovakia is below carrying capacity. We suspect that low densities may be attributable to undetected human-caused mortality. Our results imply that official game statistics are substantially overestimated. Moreover, the lynx population in Slovakia may not be at favourable conservation status as required by the EU Habitats Directive. We therefore call for a thorough assessment of the density and trend of the Slovak Carpathian lynx population, and the establishment of a scientifically robust monitoring system.

Using population characteristics to evaluate the conservation status of endangered grassland species – The case of Herbertia zebrina in southern Brazil

Many plant species listed as endangered by IUCN do not have information on population characteristics and reproductive traits, although such data are needed for conservation classification. This paper revisits the conservation status of a ‘critically endangered’ species in fragmented grasslands of southern Brazil. We present the case of Herbertia zebrina (Iridaceae), a geophyte first described in grasslands on granitic outcrops in 2010. We identified 18 populations within an estimated range of about 5000km2. Data on population size, plant size, fruit production and germination were recorded for three representative populations with repeated sampling of labelled flowering plants over a period of two years. Population size was 1869–14,555 flowering plants (2.2–3.5plantsm−2) with considerable turnover between years. Among populations, 11–61% new flowering individuals emerged in the second year, while 27–46% of the first-year plants were not observed in the following year. The plants emerged in early spring in both years and flowered over a period of four months. The number of fruits was positively correlated with plant size and vegetation height, while germination was about 86%. Thus, the number of populations, area of occupancy and plant reproduction indicate a more favourable conservation status than previously assumed. Nonetheless, due to population fragmentation and the rapid loss of natural ecosystems in the region because of land-use change, the overall classification of the species as ‘critically endangered’ should be maintained. Future research has to focus on implications of fragmentation on genetic variation among populations.

Status of Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos in Britain in 2015

ABSTRACTCapsule: A complete survey of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos in Britain in 2015 found that the population had increased by 15% since 2003 to 508 territorial pairs.Aims: The survey aimed to investigate the population size, distribution and breeding success of Golden Eagles in Britain, and to compare results with similar surveys since the early 1980s.Methods: Every home range was visited on a minimum of three occasions between January and August 2015. First, to look for eagles or signs of their presence (January–March), then to look for evidence of breeding or further checks for occupation (April–June) and finally to record productivity of nesting pairs (July–August).Results: The figure of 508 territorial pairs represents a 15% increase in the population from 442 pairs in 2003. The proportion of home ranges occupied was 70%. The largest increases in the proportion of occupied home ranges were in south-central Highlands (71%), northern moors and flows (38%) and northwest Highlands (29%), with modest increases of up to 10% in the other regions. Productivity was lower in 2015 than in 2003, and there was significant variation in breeding success between regions.Conclusion: The British Golden Eagle population has increased since 2003, although the species is absent from England and Wales. The population now meets the abundance target identified to define favourable conservation status in Scotland, and while home range occupancy has increased there is regional variation, with some regions falling below the target levels. A combination of increased annual monitoring and tagging of eagles, as well as the introduction of new legislation, may serve as effective deterrents against persecution of eagles thus facilitating this population increase. However, concerns remain over low levels of home range occupancy particularly in the east Highlands, but also the proportion of sub-adult pairs holding territory in that region and in the south-central Highlands. Persecution associated with grouse moor management has been highlighted as a particular population constraint in both of these areas.

Voluntary recording scheme reveals ongoing decline in the United Kingdom hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius population

Abstract In order to conserve threatened species, knowledge of the status, trends and trajectories of populations is required. Co‐ordinating collection of these data is challenging, especially for inconspicuous species such as the hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius. The UK National Dormouse Monitoring Programme (NDMP) is comprised of nest box recording schemes organised by volunteers. The number, size, and coverage of these schemes has varied over time. Such changes risk conflation of genuine population trends with covarying artefacts, including survey effort and expansion into sites of variable quality. We provide a robust analysis of count data from 400 NDMP sites from 1993 to 2014 and demonstrate that changes in counts are not an artefact of survey characteristics. In relation to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria, we conclude that dormouse counts in nest boxes are an index of abundance appropriate to the taxon and allow the inference of population reduction of 72% (95% confidence intervals 62–79%) over the 22 years from 1993 to 2014, equivalent to a mean annual rate of decline of 5.8% (4.5–7.1%). This decline is ongoing. We highlight difficulties in assigning an IUCN Red List conservation category to a population, given variation in apparent trends over consecutive time‐periods. In eight out of 13 sliding window intervals of 10 years from 1993 to 2014, the 95% confidence intervals overlap a decline of 50%. While average population decline over 10‐year periods suggests that the hazel dormouse should be classified as Vulnerable, a precautionary approach would not rule out the category of Endangered in the United Kingdom, given the lower bounds of population change estimates, the mean annual rate of decline and ongoing decline. Ongoing decline in the hazel dormouse population is despite a high level of species protection and widespread conservation measures. The hazel dormouse is a UK Biodiversity Action Plan Priority Species and a European Protected Species, and the causes of population reduction are not well understood and may not have ceased. An urgent appraisal of dormouse conservation is required to ensure the species’ favourable conservation status.

Geostatistical modeling applied to spatiotemporal dynamics of successional tree species groups in a natural Mixed Tropical Forest

A lack of ecological knowledge leads to innovative tools for investigating spatial relationships in natural forests, among which geostatistics stands out as a set of statistical techniques for modeling and mapping. Thus, this paper aims to apply geostatistical analysis to map and correlate the spatial patterns and dynamics of the basal area for successional tree species groups in a Mixed Tropical Forest remnant in the southern part of Brazil. The floristic composition was obtained through continuous inventory conducted in 400 plots, where the basal area was evaluated for total stock and ecological groups: pioneer, early secondary, late secondary and climax. Subsequently, geostatistical analysis was used for modeling the spatial patterns of the basal area, and ordinary kriging interpolation was applied to compose thematic maps. The results show that the forest structure presents spatial dependence and heterogeneous distribution, in which the spatial behavior of successional tree groups is associated with species aggregation patterns. Moreover, spatial dynamics are influenced by basal area increment, in which spatial changes indicate a natural forest in an advanced secondary successional stage, reflecting a favorable conservation status. This shows the importance of Conservation Units policies as preservation strategies and biodiversity sources for forest restoration.

Nitrogen deposition, habitat restoration and the EU Habitats Directive: moving beyond the deadlock with the Dutch programmatic nitrogen approach?

Atmospheric N deposition is widely recognized as one of the major threats to biodiversity. In the EU, the implementation of the EU Habitats Directives (HD), which requires EU Member States to take measures to maintain or restore natural habitats to a favorable conservation status, has put the curbing of N deposition to the forefront of several national biodiversity strategies. In order to achieve compliance with the EU biodiversity targets, N deposition will have to be brought to non-detrimental levels in many protected Natura 2000 sites. Given the stringent application of the precautionary principle throughout the decision-making process, the issuance of permits for farm holdings and road construction works has grown ever more problematic in cases of continued exceedances of critical loads in Natura 2000 sites. This paper reviews the leeway that is left for EU Member States when aligning economic development with the recovery of Natura 2000 sites from accumulated N loads. The Dutch Programmatic Approach to Nitrogen (PAN), which relies on additional reduction measures and, indirectly, on-site restoration actions in order to facilitate further economic development, stands out as one of the most noteworthy flexible mechanisms. This paper addresses the premises upon which the integral approach is based. It analyzes to what extent a more liberal understanding of N mitigation is compatible with the protection duties for Natura 2000. The argument is put forward that the strong reliance on the positive effects of future restoration measures stands at odds with the precautionary principle underpinning the Habitats Directive.

Implementation of the first adaptive management plan for a European migratory waterbird population: The case of the Svalbard pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus

An International Species Management Plan for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose was adopted under the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds in 2012, the first case of adaptive management of a migratory waterbird population in Europe. An international working group (including statutory agencies, NGO representatives and experts) agreed on objectives and actions to maintain the population in favourable conservation status, while accounting for biodiversity, economic and recreational interests. Agreements include setting a population target to reduce agricultural conflicts and avoid tundra degradation, and using hunting in some range states to maintain stable population size. As part of the adaptive management procedures, adjustment to harvest is made annually subject to population status. This has required streamlining of monitoring and assessment activities. Three years after implementation, indicators suggest the attainment of management results. Dialogue, consensus-building and engagement among stakeholders represent the major process achievements.

Assessing the impact of mowing on Common Redshanks Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarshes: lessons for conservation management

SummaryInformed application of habitat management measures is crucial, especially in saltmarshes that function as last refuges for breeding waders in Europe. Despite a reduction in agricultural use of saltmarshes since the establishment of the Wadden Sea National Parks at the end of the 1980s, there remains controversy regarding management measures such as the timing of mowing. We modelled the proportion of nests and chicks that would be jeopardised by mowing at different dates, using long-term breeding data of the Common Redshank Tringa totanus – an endangered and widespread indicator species of saltmarshes – from four study sites in the German Wadden Sea. At two study sites in the western Jadebusen, the proportion of broods that were at risk of being killed when mowing began on 1 July ranged between 78% in early, to 96% in late, breeding years, averaging 87%. Although Common Redshanks in the eastern Jadebusen started breeding one week earlier, the model still predicted a loss of 73% of chicks; while 97% of broods were at risk on the island of Wangerooge. Postponement of mowing to 1 August reduced these proportions to 21%, 11% and 32%, respectively. This study is the first to model the positive effects of delayed mowing of saltmarshes on ground-nesting birds. By implementing adjusted mowing dates in addition to previously suggested reductions in artificial drainage, direct and indirect adverse effects caused by mowing and drainage, such as an increased predation risk, are likely to be reduced, such that a ’favourable conservation status’ according to the EC Habitats Directive may be achieved.