Favorable Weather Conditions Research Articles

Influence of meteorological conditions on ripening of grape shoots in south areas of Western Siberia

Introduced grape varieties were studied in the south of Western Siberia in order to identify the effects of unfavourable factors of the growing season on the ripening of grape shoots. Weather conditions in the south of Western Siberia during the vegetation periods 2012-2017 were characterized by large fluctuations in water and temperature conditions; there were sharp changes not only in different years, but also during one season. Compared with long-term average data, a significant increase of relative air humidity and the amount of precipitation was noted from May to September. In 2016-2017 sharp changes of the amount of precipitation by months were marked (dry June, over-moistened July). The most unfavorable weather conditions for grape crop were the conditions of the growing season of 2013 with excessive rainfall (410.3 mm), very low average monthly air temperatures in May, June, July, September and the sum of active temperatures (2031.7°C). Under the influence of meteorological conditions, the terms of the beginning of the studied phenological phase changed very significantly over the years (30-62 days). Shoots ripening in years with favourable weather conditions (2012, 2015) began from July 14-August 1, with unfavorable (2013, 2017) — September 11-15. In one grape variety, insignificant variability of the degree of the studied character was revealed by years, in two — medium, in eight — high. Shoots ripened better in warmer and less humid 2012 (66.8-94.1 %) and in 2015 (58.4-92.5 %). Varieties with very poor ripening (33.0-46.9 %) Arkady, Kodryanka, Tomaysky are unsuitable for cultivation under production conditions and recommended for cultivation in amateur gardens with additional shelter. Varieties with maximum ripening of shoots on average over the years were selected from the American group White Pearls, Latvian Pink (83.1-84.9 %), Amurian Adel, Vaskovsky Souvenir, Hasan Bousa (65.5-79.3 %).

Longitudinal Acceleration Models for Horizontal Reverse Curves of Two-Lane Rural Roads

The operating speed profile models adopt acceleration and deceleration as constant values obtained from kinematic models, assuming that the operating speeds between two consecutive sections are not spatially correlated. Existent research shows that acceleration and deceleration in horizontal reverse curves (HRC) depend on the tangent length and curve radii. In this paper, accelerations/decelerations-geometry models for light cars are proposed. The models are based on the data obtained in-field with a 10 Hz GPS under favourable traffic, weather, and pavement condition to isolate the effect of road geometry over the speed changes. The models were calibrated using the 95th percentile of acceleration probability density function (pdf) obtained section to section in the HRC. It was found that the acceleration and deceleration pdf follow the Burr distribution. Therefore, a Box–Cox transformation is needed to properly calibrate acceleration-geometry models. The models obtained confirmed that accelerations and decelerations depend on the radius of entrance and departure curves of the HRC. The results contribute to better understanding of the acceleration/deceleration patterns of light cars and to enhancing operating speed models in the HRC.

Rainy Night Scene Understanding With Near Scene Semantic Adaptation

Deep networks have been used for semantic segmentation tasks on scenes of outdoor environments with increasing popularity. However, the majority of existing work centers on daytime scenes with favorable illumination and weather conditions, and relies on supervision with pixel-level annotations. This paper seeks to address the problem of semantic segmentation for rainy, night-time scenes without using pixel-level annotations. We introduce a near scene semantic approach that uses images of daytime scenes as a bridge for transferring knowledge from pre-trained segmentation models to rainy night images. Specifically, we first present near scene oriented Representation Adaptation (RA) to reduce the domain shift on the representation level. Next, we adapt the segmentation model from the daytime scenario, under varying weather conditions, to the rainy night scenario by using near scene oriented Segmentation Space Adaptation (SSA). Consequently, this further reduces the impact of the domain shift on the segmentation space level. For evaluation, we created a new dataset containing 7000 distinct daytime–night-time image pairs of near scenes obtained by a webcam, and 5266 daytime–rainy night image pairs collected by a car-mounted camera. In addition, we carefully annotated 226 rainy night images with classes defined in Cityscapes. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed algorithm.

Assessment on Incidence and Severity of White Rote Associated with Agronomic Practice and Environmental Factors at North Shewa, Central Highlands of Ethiopia

White rot of garlic caused by a soil borne fungus ( Sclerotium cepivorum Berk) is a major production threat of garlic in Ethiopia and all over the world. During favorable weather conditions, and when susceptible varieties are in the production system, the disease can cause 100% yield loss. Furthermore, sclerotium cepivorum is an issue of great importance for dry climate producers. Its intensity also vary with different cultural practices and environmental factors. The study was initiated with the objectives of assessing the incidence and severity of garlic white rot associated with environmental factors and cultural practices under dry season in North Shewa, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. To assess production practices, data were collected using multistage sampling technique from 40 garlic producing households. The data necessary for the study was collected from those sampled garlic producers by using a structured interview. In each sampled producers, three quadrants (0.5m by 0.5m) 2-3 m apart were taken by making diagonal moves in the field. Then, incidence of white rot was assessed by counting the number of plants showing white rot symptoms in each quadrant and averages were taken for each field. The assessment results showed that about 97% of the fields were infested with white rot. Disease incidence was varied among districts, altitude range, temperature, soil type and field management practices. However, the mean disease incidence and severity were higher in Menz Mama Midir as compared to the other districts. Keywords : garlic, Sclerotium cepivorum , white rot, district DOI: 10.7176/JAAS/62-02 Publication date: March 31 st 2020

Effect of weather parameters and sheath mite population on incidence and development of sheath rot disease of rice

Paddy (Oryza sativa L.) is the world’s second most important cereal and staple food crop for people of south, south east and eastern Asia where 90 per cent of the world’s rice is produced and consumed. In the present study, field experiment was conducted on epidemiological studies during Kharif 2018 and 2019 at Main Rice Research Centre Farm, NAU, Navsari on susceptible cultivar GR-11 at natural condition. Effect of different weather parameters and sheath mite population were explored by correlation and regression analysis to find out their contribution to incidence and development of the rice sheath rot disease. The maximum sheath rot incidence (12.6%) and severity (10.30%) were occurred when favorable weather conditions viz., maximum temperature in range of 29.0 and 36.9 oC, minimum temperature in range of 20.3 and 24.7 oC, bright sunshine hours in range of 0.6 and 8.6 per day. Evening relative humidity in range of 50.0-97.6 per cent and sheath mite population in range of 0.95 to 7.95 mites per two cm rice leaf appeared. Correlation matrix was worked out and found that, significant highly positive correlation recorded with maximum temperature, bright sunshine hours and sheath mite infestation and played an important key role in the sheath rot development compared to other weather parameters. By employing stepwise regression equation model for sheath rot incidence revealed that at least 98% of variation in sheath rot incidence was explained by the function of weather parameters viz., minimum temperature and evening relative humidity and sheath mite infestation. Thus, weather parameters played a major role in sheath rot disease incidence in kharif season. Correlation matrix and step wise regression equation model established may be most reliable and useful for forecasting of the sheath rot disease of rice. The loss caused by the sheath rot can be saved by forewarning to the farmers and thereby controlling the same at the proper time.

DISSEMINATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SEPTORIOSIS IN SPRING WHEAT, DEPENDING ON WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OF KAZAKHSTAN

Wheat is the main product in 53 countries, including in our country. The leading producers of wheat grain in Kazakhstan are Akmola, Kostanay and North Kazakhstan regions. The virulence of previously weakly pathogenic pathogens, for example, spotted wheat leaves caused by many imperfect fungi from the genera Septoria and others, has increased. The purpose of the study is to conduct phytosanitary monitoring of the spread and development of spring wheat septoria and to study the influence of weather conditions on the development of the disease. The technique is generally accepted in phytopathological studies. In 2018, favorable weather conditions were elaborated for the development of Septoria on spring wheat. A high correlation in all studied varieties was observed between the degree of manifestation of the disease and the number of days with precipitation > 1 mm. 2019 was an unfavorable year for the development of septorious spots, the disease was depressed. A close negative correlation was found on all wheat varieties between the degree of development of the disease and the number of days with precipitation > 1 mm. Phytosanitary monitoring of the spread and development of spring wheat septoria is required annual monitoring to conduct a complex of preventive and protective measures to limit them.

Different responses of dengue to weather variability across climate zones in Queensland, Australia

BackgroundDengue is a significant public health concern in northern Queensland, Australia. This study compared the epidemic features of dengue transmission among different climate zones and explored the threshold of weather variability for climate zones in relation to dengue in Queensland, Australia. MethodsDaily data on dengue cases and weather variables including minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall for the period of January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Climate zones shape file for Australia was also obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to check whether the distribution of dengue significantly differed between climate zones. Time series regression tree model was used to estimate the threshold effects of the monthly weather variables on dengue in different climate zones. ResultsDuring the study period, the highest dengue incidence rate was found in the tropical climate zone (15.09/10,000) with the second highest in the grassland climate zone (3.49/10,000). Dengue responded differently to weather variability in different climate zones. In every climate zone, temperature was the primary predictor of dengue. However, the threshold values, type of temperature (e.g. maximum, minimum, or mean), and lag time for dengue varied between climate zones. Monthly mean temperature above 27°C at a lag of two months and monthly minimum temperature above 22°C at a lag of one month was found to be the most favourable weather condition for dengue in the tropical and subtropical climate zone, respectively. However, in the grassland climate zone, maximum temperature above 38°C at a lag of five months was found to be the ideal condition for dengue. Monthly rainfall with threshold value of 1.7 mm was found to be a significant contributor to dengue only in the tropical climate zone. ConclusionsThe temperature threshold for dengue was lower in both tropical and subtropical climate zones than in the grassland climate zone. The different temperature threshold between climate zones suggests that an early warning system would need to be developed based on local socio-ecological conditions of the climate zone to manage dengue control and intervention programs effectively.

Preplant and early-season cotton irrigation timing with deficit amounts using subsurface drip (SDI) systems in the Texas High Plains

Two major irrigation challenges of cotton producers in the Texas High Plains (THP) include the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer and the highly evaporative, semi-arid environment during late spring and early summer. A recent cotton experiment using center pivot irrigation at deficit irrigation capacities showed the reduction in seasonal irrigation by 20% with minor yield loss by reducing irrigations during the vegetative period instead of attempting to store soil water during this period of high evaporative losses. Due to its method of delivery, subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) should reduce evaporation losses during the preplant and early-season periods and improve water storage efficiency and crop yield even at low irrigation capacity. Two experiments having different SDI installation designs and irrigation capacities were conducted in adjacent fields on clay loam soils over 4- and 5-year periods. Treatments included levels of preplant (PP) and vegetative (Veg) period irrigations. In both experiments, under seasonal growing conditions ranging from favorable to unfavorable, yields and crop values were only modestly increased by additional PP irrigations above that required for germination. Among treatments with common PP amounts, larger irrigation amounts during the vegetative period did not significantly (p < 0.05) increase yield or crop value in any individual year or any group of years. In three growing season groupings, with unfavorable to favorable weather conditions, as seasonal irrigation increased, gross irrigation value decreased. Results suggest that in most years, on heavy soils within the THP, SDI productivity can be improved by limiting PP and early-season irrigations under deficit irrigation conditions.

Tailored Algorithms for Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

The fastest-growing renewable source of energy is solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, which is likely to become the largest electricity source in the world by 2050. In order to be a viable alternative energy source, PV systems should maximise their efficiency and operate flawlessly. However, in practice, many PV systems do not operate at their full capacity due to several types of anomalies. We propose tailored algorithms for the detection of different PV system anomalies, including suboptimal orientation, daytime and sunrise/sunset shading, brief and sustained daytime zero-production, and low maximum production. Furthermore, we establish simple metrics to assess the severity of suboptimal orientation and daytime shading. The proposed detection algorithms were applied to a set of time-series of electricity production in Portugal, which are based on two periods with distinct weather conditions. Under favourable weather conditions, the algorithms successfully detected most of the time-series labelled with either daytime or sunrise/sunset shading, and with either sustained or brief daytime zero-production. There was a relatively low percentage of false positives, such that most of the anomaly detections were correct. As expected, the algorithms tend to be more robust under favourable rather than under adverse weather conditions. The proposed algorithms may prove to be useful not only to research specialists, but also to energy utilities and owners of small- and medium-sized PV systems, who may thereby effortlessly monitor their operation and performance.

The Behaviour of Some Winter Wheat Varieties, Created at ARDS Turda Against Fusarium sp. Attack, during 2015-2018

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a fungal disease of small grain cereals caused by pathogen fungi Fusarium sp. and has become a serious danger to the worldwide grain industry. Under favorable weather conditions (moist, warm conditions during flowering), the Fusarium spores are spread by wind to cereal spikelet, and then, infection expands within the whole ears. Wheat production can be reduced by up to 50-60%, and includes losses caused by flower abortion, elimination of damaged grains during threshing, decrease in grain size, and reduction in grain weight. In this paper we studied the behavior of some wheat varieties at the Fusarium sp., attack, under different infection conditions, between 2015-2018. The climatic conditions had a decisive role in the appearance and development of the disease, the percentage of infected ears and grains, in 2015 and 2016 recorded the highest values. Applying the vegetation treatments, at the optimum time, will lead to the reduction of the percentage of infected ears and kernels, even if there is a high pressure of infection. The yields obtained from the wheat varieties were influenced by the climatic conditions, the infection mode and the cultivated genotype. The lowest yields were obtained in 2017, a problematic year for the winter wheat crop; at the pressure of infection, without treatments, we obtained the lowest yields.

Economic and energy efficiency of forage grain conservation

The use of dry preparations is a cheap and environmentally safe method of feed chemical conservation. This can be proved by the results of economic and energy assessment of methods for preserving forage grain, performed using generally accepted methods. The analysis of various methods of preserving, storing and preparing for feeding raw forage grain showed that flattening, chemical preservation and storage in anaerobic conditions was significantly cheaper and less energy intensive than drying it to standard humidity and storing it in the open air. This method is comparable to storing grain of standard humidity, removed in favorable weather conditions and prepared for feeding by grinding it on a hammer mill. The analysis result seems logical due to lower energy costs when replacing grain crushing with flattening. In addition, the forage grain prepared in this way corresponds much to the animals’ physiological needs, and its preparation reduces the physical loss of feed.

Dynamics of the Demographic Structure of Coenopopulations of &lt;i&gt;Tulipa suaveolens&lt;/i&gt; Roth (Liliaceae, Magnoliophyta) in the Lower Volga Region

The demographic structure of 39 coenopopulations of Tulipa suaveolens Roth in the Lower Volga region was studied. It has been shown that they occupy an area from 0.01 to 20 000 ha or more. Small-area populations grow mainly closer to the northern border of the species range. The density of all individuals (1.6–240.7 PCs/m2) and the number of generative plants (0.1–58.2 PCs/m2) at the interpopulation level varied over a wide range, changing significantly over the years mainly in the populations exposed to recreational load or grazing. The percentage of generative individuals ranged from 2 to 96%. In the years 2013–2016 there was a significant negative correlation between the geographical latitude corresponding to the place of growth of a coenopopulation and the proportion of plants of the generative state therein. On the contrary, in the years 2017–2018 in the southern and western parts surveyed of the habitat the plants of the pregenerative period prevailed, while the share of flowering plants significantly decreased. The observed dynamics correlates well with the weather conditions of the growing season of tulips. In the period 2013–2016, in the southern part of the territory studied, arid conditions were formed just in the spring and seedlings fell out at an early stage of their development. The spring periods of 2017 and 2018 were wetter, and seedlings successfully passed through the early stages of ontogenesis. Thus, cyclical fluctuations of weather conditions significantly affect the demographic structure of the T. suaveolens coenopopulations. Accordingly, the contribution of different years to the renewal of populations is different. The populations in the southern regions maintain a high number of individuals and occupy larger areas mainly due to their long life. Rare seasons with favorable weather conditions provide outbreaks of juvenile plants. In the northern regions of the territory studied, more favorable conditions for the development of sprouts of this species are formed, and fluctuations in the demographic structure of coenopopulations are less pronounced.

RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF POWER SUPPLY OF DISTRIBUTION GENERATION USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL36. AUTOMATED AND COMPUTATIONALLY INEXPENSIVE EXPOSURE FUSION FOR MOBILE DEVICES

The implementation of Renewable Energy Sources has been proven to be beneficial for local consumers. However, their dependency on weather conditions has a major impact on the reliability of the power supply. This paper presents a method for reliability evaluation of distributed generation, considering the probability of certain weather conditions occur. The method is based on the Markov chain model and considers the probabilities of operational and outage state occurrence. The case study analyzes a radial distribution network consisting of three Distribution Energy Resources (DERs) and a cluster of industrial consumers during distribution substation outage. The results describe three scenarios considering the availability of power generation of DERs and the occurrence of favourable weather conditions.

Assessment of Current Status of Invasive Aquatic Plants in Louisiana

Invasive aquatic plants include plants and algae that grow partially or entirely submerged in water. The United States Department of Agriculture Early Detection and Distribution Mapping system (USDA EDD Maps) was used to collate number of positive observations for all the aquatic invasive species in Louisiana. United States Geological Survey Non-indigenous aquatic species (USGS NAS) database was used to collate each species years of first and last observations and number of affected HUC in Louisiana State. The collated data were recorded and formatted using Excel spreadsheet. The analyses of the data were done using Excel software to generate different charts. The main objective of this paper was to evaluate the current impacts and management of invasive aquatic plants in Louisiana and also to assess whether several resources expended on eradication of these plants have resulted in improved water quality of the State. From the collated data from USGS and USDA EMM Maps, it shows earliest date of observation of invasive aquatic plant in Louisiana from 1884. Common Water hyacinth has the highest number of observations to date. About 41 hydrological unit areas have been affected by infestation of Alligator weed as well. The continuous spread of invasive aquatic plants in Louisiana could be due to favorable weather conditions, excessive nutrients runoff from agricultural practices, reduction of government allocated funds, and uncooperative human community. The current State of Louisiana statewide management plan has done little in the control of the major notorious aquatic plant invaders such as giant Salvinia and water hyacinth. Although, several biological, chemical and mechanical management controls are being implemented yearly, there is a need for interagency collaboration, establishment of efficient State database, and stricter laws on voluntary anthropogenic activities such as sales of invasive weeds as ornamental plants and smuggling of unwanted species through the waterways into the states.

Assessment of Current Status of Invasive Aquatic Plants in Louisiana

Invasive aquatic plants include plants and algae that grow partially or entirely submerged in water. The United States Department of Agriculture Early Detection and Distribution Mapping system (USDA EDD Maps) was used to collate number of positive observations for all the aquatic invasive species in Louisiana. United States Geological Survey Non-indigenous aquatic species (USGS NAS) database was used to collate each species years of first and last observations and number of affected HUC in Louisiana State. The collated data were recorded and formatted using Excel spreadsheet. The analyses of the data were done using Excel software to generate different charts. The main objective of this paper was to evaluate the current impacts and management of invasive aquatic plants in Louisiana and also to assess whether several resources expended on eradication of these plants have resulted in improved water quality of the State. From the collated data from USGS and USDA EMM Maps, it shows earliest date of observation of invasive aquatic plant in Louisiana from 1884. Common Water hyacinth has the highest number of observations to date. About 41 hydrological unit areas have been affected by infestation of Alligator weed as well. The continuous spread of invasive aquatic plants in Louisiana could be due to favorable weather conditions, excessive nutrients runoff from agricultural practices, reduction of government allocated funds, and uncooperative human community. The current State of Louisiana statewide management plan has done little in the control of the major notorious aquatic plant invaders such as giant Salvinia and water hyacinth. Although, several biological, chemical and mechanical management controls are being implemented yearly, there is a need for interagency collaboration, establishment of efficient State database, and stricter laws on voluntary anthropogenic activities such as sales of invasive weeds as ornamental plants and smuggling of unwanted species through the waterways into the states.

Field efficacy of the parasitoid, Pediobius imbrues (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) on coconut slug caterpillar, Macroplectra nararia Moore (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae)

The coconut slug caterpillar, Macroplectra nararia is one of the major pests of coconut plantations in Andhra Pradesh with periodic out breaks especially under favorable weather conditions. Though many parasitoids were identified against this sporadic out break pest, none were found amenable for laboratory rearing. A new larval parasitoid, Pediobius imbrues (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) with a natural parasitisation ranging from 2 -10 per cent under field conditions was identified in slug affected coconut gardens in March 2015. This parasitoid was also found amenable for lab rearing on Bracon hebetor probably being facultative hyper parasitoid. Field release studies of lab reared P. imbrues against slug caterpillar in the affected coconut gardens revealed that a maximum of 41.41 and 50.31 per cent parasitsm of slug caterpillar, respectively, in 2017 and 2018 within 30 days after release and this promising parasitism provides scope for large scale field releases during slug caterpillar out breaks in view of major economic losses caused by the pest.

Influence of hydrothermal conditions on the productivity of perennial grasses in South Steppe of Ukraine

The purpose is to determine the productivity of perennial legume and cereal grasses under conditions of natural moisture supply in South Steppe of Ukraine. Method. The studies were conducted during 2016—2018 using conventional methods, and the output of feed units, digestible protein per unit of area was determined by reference books. Results. On average over three years of research, the highest yield of leaf-stem mass of cereals was formed by Bromus inermis and Elytrigia medium tender – 11.6 and 11.2 t/ha, respectively. The lowest yield was formed by Agropyrum pectiniforme – 7.6 t/ha. Among the all legume grasses, Melilotus albus prevailed (14.8 t/ha). Medicago sativa and Onobrychis arenaria were able to form a similar yield (14.5 and 13.5 t/ha, respectively) under the arid conditions of South Steppe of Ukraine. Insufficient rainfall in 2017 caused a decrease in the productivity of the studied crops. Thus, in 2017 the average yield of green mass in the experiment was 10.3 t/ha, while in 2016 under more favorable weather conditions this figure was 13.2 t/ha or 28.2 % more. The highest output of feed and protein units (FPU) per unit of area under cereal grasses was provided by Bromus inermis (2.35 t/ha). The lowest one was recorded in Agropyrum pectiniforme (1.60 t/ha). FPU output per unit of area under legume grasses increased respectively. Lotus corniculatus provides less green mass and therefore dry matter and forage and protein units. Perennial cereals grasses do not prevail over legume grasses, so they do not spread in South Ukraine. Conclusions. The productivity of perennial grasses in the south of Ukraine significantly depends on the type of plants, weather (hydrothermal) conditions of the year. The most effective is the cultivation of perennial legumes, namely Melilotus albus, alfalfa, Onobrychis arenaria. Bromus inermis and Elytrigia medium prevail among cereal grasses.

Students’ trip mode choice in favourable and unfavourable weather conditions

Trip mode choice, one of the stages of the four-step travel process, is influenced by individual and family attributes, such as economic, social and cultural characteristics. The purpose of this st...

Interaction between Fusarium Head Blight and Crown Rot Disease Incidence and Environmental Factors and Soil Physiochemical Analysis on Wheat in the South of Iraq, Basra Province

This study was conducted to evaluate the interaction between disease incidence of both Fusarium head blight (FHB) and crown rot (FCR) and physiochemical parameters for soil samples and environmental factors in 14 selected wheat fields in the North of Basra province. The results showed that both diseases were occurred in all surveyed fields. The level of FCR incidence was higher than FHB. The incidence of both diseases was increased with favourable weather conditions (high humidity and temperature ˃15 °C), reaching the highest levels in crucial periods before and during the ripening stage. The percentage of disease incidence ranged between 6 to 71% and 3 to 54% for FCR and FHB, respectively. Nine physiochemical parameters of soil were examined in this study, but only soil organic carbon (SOC) (P< 0.0000), soil organic matter (SOM) (P< 0.0000) and Cation exchange capacity (CEC) (P< 0.0008) and (P< 0.0002) had highly significant differences among the selected wheat fields in the occurrence of disease incidence for FHB and FCR respectively. The values were ranged between 0.33-1.27% for SOC, 0.66-2.54% for SOM and 10.08-20.59 mg/100g for CEC. Favourable weather conditions and poor soils with SOM, SOC and CEC contents were found to be great factors for encouraging both diseases during this study.

Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease

Long range atmospheric transport is an important pathway for the spread of plant pathogens, such as rust fungi which can devastate cereal crop health and food security worldwide. In recent years, serious concern has been caused by the evolution of new virulent races of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, a pathogen causing wheat stem rust that can result in close to 100% yield losses on susceptible wheat cultivars in favourable weather conditions. We applied an Earth system model to compare the suitability of the current climate and a business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2100 for wheat stem rust. Although there are large uncertainties in modelling changes in disease spread, we focus in this paper on the changes which are likely to be robust to model assumptions. We show that the warmer climate with lower relative humidity and enhanced turbulence will lead to ∼40% increase in the urediniospore emitting potential of an infected field as global average. The main predicted changes in the atmospheric long-range transport include reduced connections between Europe, Africa and South Asia, and increased frequency of spores crossing the mid-latitude oceans. Due to reduction in subfreezing conditions, the overwintering areas of the fungus will expand. On the other hand, projected drier conditions will reduce substantially the probability of an infection starting from deposited spores, except in irrigated fields.