Abstract Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult-to-constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the down-dip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the stress level in the lower seismogenic portion of the Cascadia megathrust. On 20 December 2022, an Mw 6.4 strike-slip earthquake occurred near Ferndale, California, in southern Cascadia and likely ruptured the Gorda slab crust in the lower seismogenic portion, providing an opportunity to assess the stress level in this region. Here, we relocate the Ferndale mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks using a high-resolution 3D velocity model and estimate rupture dimensions, directivity, and stress drop for several Mw 4–5 aftershocks and recent earthquakes. The aftershocks define a strike-slip fault in the slab crust striking east-northeast, consistent with the mainshock focal mechanism. The orientation of this fault is about 45° off the ideally oriented fault plane given the stress state in the slab. The aftershock zone is extensive and broad in the forward direction of the mainshock rupture but still constrained within the volume of high VP/VS in the slab crust. Our stress-drop estimates are generally lower for Mw 4–5 earthquakes located in the slab crust compared to those a few kilometers deeper in the slab mantle. Combined, our results support a relatively low effective stress level in the vicinity of the megathrust in the lower portion of the seismogenic zone in southern Cascadia, likely due to elevated fluid pressures. Consequently, the ground motion in the onshore region above this low-stress seismogenic portion in southern Cascadia may not be as intense as that observed during great earthquakes in other subduction zones.
Read full abstract