Fault Orientation Research Articles

Probabilistic seismic source inversion of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake from macroseismic evidence: A major updating

The source of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake influences the computed seismic hazard of the Southeastern U.S. and thus impacts public policy and engineering practice. However, because the 1886 rupture predated seismic instruments, its source is highly uncertain. This study presents probabilistic seismic-source inversions of the Charleston earthquake from liquefaction evidence and historical intensity reports. Using the latest predictive models and a novel inversion approach, we seek to constrain the magnitude, location, and orientation of the 1886 rupture. Probability distributions of rupture magnitude are conditioned on both the “Woodstock Fault” – a commonly inferred source of the 1886 event – and on an unknown source, wherein the uncertainties of fault location and orientation are considered. These distributions are compared to the Mw6.7-Mw7.5 distribution adopted by the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP). Collectively, the results do not provide strong support for the hypothesized Woodstock Fault. This is not to say the Woodstock Fault does not exist or could not have caused the 1886 rupture, but rather, that the position of the 1886 source model cannot be constrained by the data and models studied herein, given the large uncertainties inherent to each. While this is at odds with the underlying assumption of prior studies, the results nonetheless generally uphold the magnitude distribution adopted by the NSHMP. The largest uncertainties inherent to this distribution are identified and could be diminished in the future. Finally, we note that the inversion methodology used here is not specific to any region, or to certain types of evidence, but can be applied to any seismic zone and to any co-seismic response. This methodology allows for uncertainty to be accounted for in a more complete and transparent manner when inverting seismic source parameters from macroseismic data. Of course, any limitations, biases, or unmodeled uncertainties inherent to these data must be understood, and their implications acknowledged, as further discussed herein.

A Tsunami Generated by a Strike‐Slip Event: Constraints From GPS and SAR Data on the 2018 Palu Earthquake

AbstractA devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 Mw = 7.5 Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike‐slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake‐induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co‐seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic data set of Global Positioning System and multiple Synthetic Aperture Radar‐derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co‐seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co‐seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co‐seismic uplift (>2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co‐seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video‐derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co‐seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic data set constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike‐slip faults in transtensional basins.

Cascading Hazards in a Migrating Forearc‐Arc System: Earthquake and Eruption Triggering in Nicaragua

AbstractStrain partitioning in oblique convergent margins results in margin‐parallel shear in the overriding plate. Margin‐parallel shear is often accommodated by margin‐parallel strike‐slip faults proximal to active volcanic arcs. Along the Nicaraguan segment of the Central American Forearc (CAFA) in the Cocos‐Caribbean plate convergent margin, there are no well‐expressed right‐lateral faults that accommodate CA‐CAFA relative motion. Instead, historical earthquakes and mapped fault orientations indicate that the ∼12 mm/yr of dextral motion is accommodated on arc‐normal, left‐lateral faults (i.e., bookshelf faults). We investigate three upper‐plate earthquakes; the 10 April 2014 (Mw 6.1), 15 September 2016 (Mw 5.7), and 28 September 2016 (Mw 5.5), using Global Position System co‐seismic displacements and relocated earthquake aftershocks. Our analyses of the three earthquakes indicate that the 10 April 2014 earthquake ruptured an unmapped margin‐parallel right‐lateral fault in Lago Xolotlán (Managua) and the September 2016 earthquakes ruptured arc‐normal, left‐lateral and oblique‐slip faults. These earthquakes represent a triggered sequence whereby the 10 April 2014 earthquake promoted failure of the faults that ruptured in September 2016 by imparting a static Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) of 0.02–0.07 MPa. Likewise, the 15 September 2016, earthquake additionally promoted failure (ΔCFS of 0.08–0.1 MPa) on sub‐parallel faults that ruptured in two subsequent earthquakes. We also present an instance of magma‐tectonic interaction whereby the 10 April 2014 earthquake dilated (10s of μStrain) the shallow magmatic system of Momotombo Volcano, which led to magma injection, ascent, and eruption on 1 December 2015, after ∼100 years of quiescence.

Bearing Scratch Fault Detection by Three‐Dimensional Features and a Support Vector Machine

Induction motors play a crucial role in various industries owing to their high robustness. The demand for early fault detection is getting attention to avoid serious damage to the machines. Bearing fault is the most common failure in induction motors and the possibility of scratches has a higher probability among the various classes of the bearing faults. Recently, the effective diagnosis method considering the progression and orientation of the scratch fault by using a machine learning algorithm have been reported. However, the diagnosis of such scratch faults with high accuracy is still required and challenging for early fault detection. In this article, the scratch faults are diagnosed with high accuracy rate and the detailed analysis are conducted. A support vector machine algorithm is used to diagnose the faults, where sideband frequency components of the load current are used as the features. In order to obtain high accuracy rate, additional features are considered, where in this study, the rotating speed of the motor and a higher order frequency component are selected as candidates and compared. The rotating speed along with sideband components of load current shows high accuracy rate. Furthermore, the robustness of the method is tested against the multiple faults. The results show that the rotating speed is an effective feature for highly sensitive diagnoses of bearing scratch faults. © 2022 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Back-projection results for the M w 7.5, 28 September 2018 Palu earthquake-tsunami

A back-projection technique allows seismologists to analyse rupture properties once seismic signals from a dense array of seismic networks are available. The observed waveforms are then traced back in space and time to the source region of an earthquake under investigation. In this study, the method utilised the back-projection image of the recorded high-frequency P-seismic waveforms filtered at 0.25-1.0 Hz by Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) processing to estimate the extent and the spread of earthquake rupture propagation of the M w 7.5 Palu event on 28 September 2018, generating a severe tsunami. This study aims to estimate rupture duration, its extent (the distance over which rupture propagates) and the corresponding speed, and rupture directivity (where most of the seismic energy propagates). The results revealed that the front of rupture propagates slightly offset southward at about 2.9 km/s over a distance of ~140 km away from the epicentre for about 49 s before slowing down at much smaller amplitudes after reaching the south end of Palu Bay. This finding is consistent with an NNW-SSE orientation of the active Palu-Koro Fault lying along the bay, suggesting that the strong ground motion is associated with the fault activities. This study has therefore substantial implications for enhanced earthquake and tsunami early warnings, helping the government and local authority build community resilience by warning people at risk from future possible earthquake and tsunami hazards.

Seismogenic Fault Reactivation in Western Central Africa: Insights From Regional Stress Analysis

AbstractThe onshore continental margins of western Central Africa have been hosting potentially damaging earthquake events for decades; yet, the links between the seismicity, the contemporary stress field, and pre‐existing faults are not well understood. Here, we analyze the regional stress fields offshore and onshore along the coastal margin, and in the interior continental areas using earthquake focal mechanisms, map and characterize the detailed structure of preexisting fault systems in outcrops, and assess their reactivation potential. Our results show a switch from NNE‐SSW transpressive stress regime offshore and near the coastal margins, to NE‐SW compressive and transtensive stress regimes in the cratonic interior (Congo Basin and Kasai Block). We show that regional stresses acting on offshore oceanic fracture zones are compatible with those acting along the onshore areas of the continental margin. Field observations reveal the presence of large fault systems that deform both the Precambrian basement and Phanerozoic sedimentary sequences, with widespread calcite veining, quartz veining, and palygorskite mineralization (with evidence of post‐veining shear reactivation) along the fault zones. Along the margin, the preexisting NNE‐, NNW‐, and N‐S ‐trending strike‐slip faults and normal faults show a high slip tendency (>80%–100%), whereas in the continental interior, the NW‐ and N‐S ‐trending thrust faults are the most likely to reactivate. We argue that favorable orientation of the preexisting faults define the susceptibility of the faults to seismic reactivation. We propose that zones of higher stress magnitudes along distal offshore oceanic fracture zones extend further into the continent and may be driving stress loading on pre‐stressed, favorably oriented fault systems onshore, along the continental margin.

Relationship between Karstification and Tectonism in the Upper Jurassic Evaporite Formation: A Case Study of the Lalla Fatna Escarpment Safi, Morocco

The Upper Jurassic Evaporite Formation accumulated up to 200 m of interbedded gypsum-carbonates layers across the coastal cliffed region of Safi (Morocco) have been affected by karstification process, resulting in karst collapse and subsidence structures associated with faulting, fracturing and different types of instabilities, which are among the main causes of natural hazard risk, impacting the socio-economic and environmental issues. Surface investigation (physiognomic approach) allowed the characterization and identification of deep-seated and subjacent gypsum interstratal stages and showed that the karstic features are controlled by orientations of faults and fractures. To highlight the relationship between tectonics and karstification, in this area, fracture orientations were studied, and the result of analysis of diagrams showed that, in most cases, orientations of karst landforms are controlled by regional tectonic features.

An experimental study of the transition from tensile failure to shear failure in Carrara marble and Solnhofen limestone: Does “hybrid failure” exist?

Failure of brittle rocks under axisymmetric extensional loading, when the minimum principal stress is tensile, results in the formation of one or more opening-mode cracks that are oriented normal to the extension axis. When all the principal stresses are compressive, failure occurs through the formation of numerous grain-scale tensile cracks, which coalesce into a shear-mode fault that is inclined at >20° to the maximum principal stress. There have been few attempts to study the transition between these failure modes, particularly those that incorporate microstructural analyses. A transitional mode of failure, termed “hybrid failure”, is often proposed to describe the orientation of faults between these end-member loading conditions, but this concept has traditionally been based on a parabolic, “Griffith-type” failure envelope that describes the growth of the single most critically-oriented crack. By integrating axisymmetric rock deformation experiments with microstructural analyses, it can be shown that failure under these transitional conditions involves the formation of several transgranular tensile cracks, which coalesce into a shear-mode fault that is inclined at <10° to the maximum principal stress. The stress intensity at the tip of each crack interacts with adjacent cracks to produce a stair-step geometry along the failure surface. These are what may be appropriately considered “hybrid faults”, the angle of which systematically increase as the maximum principal stress, and thus the differential stress increases. There is, however, no evidence of a distinct “hybrid failure” mode, which involves the in-plane propagation of a single crack that is subject to a combined shear stress and tensile normal stress. The results of this experimental study provide novel insights into the mechanical behaviour of carbonate rocks and into the interpretation of meso-scale natural examples of failure under mixed stress-states.

Relative Focal Mechanism Inversion and Its Application to Ridgecrest Sequence

AbstractEarthquake focal mechanisms are important for characterizing the subsurface faulting geometry and evaluating stress distributions. Existing approaches usually strive to determine the absolute focal mechanisms and may be subject to large uncertainties due to incomprehensive knowledge of the velocity model, particularly for moderate-to-small earthquakes. Alternatively, difficulties that arise from the velocity model can be largely mitigated by inverting the relative data variations in a series of earthquakes, because effects from the velocity model are systematic among all events in the vicinity. In this study, we propose a novel relative focal mechanism inversion (RFMI) method to invert the second-order variations in a series of focal mechanisms utilizing a well-constrained primary event. We test the RFMI method on both synthetic data and 251 real earthquakes (M ≥3) in the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. The synthetic test results show that the RFMI method is robust and insusceptible to location errors (&amp;lt;2 km) and systematic velocity errors (5%). The real data application results demonstrate improved consistency among the inverted focal mechanisms, resulting in better characterization of the fault orientations than the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) focal mechanism catalog. The retrieved earthquake depths are also well correlated with the depths of the Mw 6.4 and 7.1 mainshocks. Waveform cross-correlation analysis verifies the reliability of the results. Furthermore, dynamic stress monitoring is enabled with decent resolution. The proposed RFMI method paves a new path toward achieving a rich number of reliable earthquake focal mechanisms, which will benefit the investigation of the earthquake process.

Using teleseismic backprojection and InSAR to obtain segmentation information for large earthquakes: a case study of the 2016Mw 6.6 Muji earthquake

SUMMARYA good understanding of earthquake rupture segmentation is important to characterize fault geometries at depth for follow-up tectonic, stress-field or other analyses. We propose a data-driven strategy and develop pre-optimization methods to support finite fault inversions with independent prior estimates on earthquake source parameters. The first method we develop is a time-domain, multi-array and novel multiphase backprojection (BP) of teleseismic data. This method infers the spatio-temporal evolution of the rupture process, including a potential occurrence of rupture segmentation. Secondly, we apply image analysis methods on InSAR surface displacement maps to infer rupture characteristics (e.g. strike and length) and the number of potential segments. Both methods can provide model-independent constraints on fault location, dimension, orientation and rupture timing, applicable to form priors of model parameters before detailed modelling. We demonstrate and test our methods based on synthetic tests and an application to the 25.11.2016 Muji Mw 6.6 earthquake. Our results indicate segmentation and bilateral rupturing for the 2016 Muji earthquake. The results of the BP of the Muji Mw 6.6 earthquake using high-frequency filtered teleseismic waveforms in particular shows the capability to illuminate the rupture history with the potential to resolve the start and stop phases of individual fault segments.

Earthquake Focal Mechanisms as a Stress Meter of Active Volcanoes

AbstractThe orientation of faulting associated with volcano‐tectonic earthquakes follows the stress field there, as with tectonic earthquakes. Therefore, stress changes associated with volcanic activity change fault orientations or focal mechanisms. Zhan et al. (2022; https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097958) observed temporal changes of focal mechanisms associated with volcanic unrest. They decomposed the stress field into the ambient differential stress, volcano loading, and the stress change by the dike intrusion; they then evaluated their relative contributions to constrain the magnitude of the ambient differential stress that is consistent with the observation. This study indicates that focal mechanisms can be used to monitor the stress state of an active volcano. Combining focal mechanisms with other geophysical observables, such as seismic anisotropy and geodetic measurements, will give us more precise assessments of the stress state, leading to better forecasts of volcanic activity.

Analysis of the Hydrogeological Conditions Affecting Fault Response to Nearby Hydraulic Fracturing

AbstractThe response of critically stressed dormant faults to fluid perturbation, by oil and gas production, has been a major public concern because of its link to induced seismicity. In this paper, we study the hydrogeological factors that affect a nearby fault response, during and after hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations, evaluated by the change in Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) and the rate of seismicity (R) through coupling solid deformation and fluid flow. Our results show that the pore pressure increases rapidly in a fault that is close (hydraulically connected) to HF operations, which might lead to its activation when the injection rate is high. When the fault is adjacent to HF but distant from it, its shallow region is subjected to a stabilizing deformation‐induced normal compressive stress and its deeper region is destabilized under extension. In this case, the fault orientation and damage zone size have a significant effect on the fault's stability and response. On the other hand, decreasing the rate of injection can either increase or decrease the CFS values depending on the fault location and the dominant stresses. Therefore, serious attention should be given to the fault position, its architecture, and the injection rate to help reduce the potential for induced seismicity from HF. Our findings are verified and confirmed using the case of the Duvernay formation in Alberta, Canada, where the reported seismic data correlate with high CFS and R values.

Fault Orientation and Relocated Seismicity Associated with the 12 December 2018 Mw 4.4 Decatur, Tennessee, Earthquake Sequence

AbstractSmall-to-moderate size earthquakes have occurred along the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) for decades, resulting in the second highest seismicity rate in Central and Eastern United States following the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, the underlying tectonic setting of seismicity in the ETSZ remains unclear. The recent December 2018 Mw 4.4 earthquake near Decatur, Tennessee, provides an opportunity to study one of the largest recent events in this region, after the 2003 Mw 4.6 Fort Payne, Alabama, earthquake. Here, we use a matched filter technique to detect additional microearthquakes around the Mw 4.4 mainshock. We create templates from 967 cataloged earthquakes spanning over 15 yr (January 2005–July 2020) in the ETSZ. These templates are used to detect missing events four weeks before to four weeks after the mainshock. We calculate the magnitudes of new events using principle component fitting between templates and newly detected events. Two relocation algorithms, XCORLOC and hypoDD, are used comparatively to relocate detected events. We construct focal mechanism solutions for earthquakes around the mainshock using HASHpy, and refine the focal mechanism and depth solution of the mainshock using the cut-and-paste method. The mainshock appears to have occurred at a depth of approximately 5–6 km, which is deeper than the decollement (4–5 km) that separates the Grenville-age basement rock and the Paleozoic sedimentary rock. In addition, the mainshock appears to rupture bilaterally along an east–northeast-trending strike-slip fault, which is consistent with the relocated aftershock locations and one of the nodal planes of the mainshock. The occurrence of the 2018 Mw 4.4 mainshock at a relatively shallow depth and its close proximity to the Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant highlight the need to reevaluate seismic hazard associated with moderate-size earthquakes along the ETSZ.

Source Parameters of the Mw 5.7 Pica Crustal Earthquake in Northern Chile

Abstract On 10 September, 2008, an Mw 5.7 earthquake occurred under the Central Valley of northern Chile near the town of Pica at a depth of ∼33 km within the continental crust of the South America plate. We find this earthquake to be a high stress-drop, reverse-oblique event that generated unusually high ground accelerations of up to 0.67g. Overall, its observed ground motion intensities are considerably larger than those predicted by ground motion models, particularly at short periods. The source properties inferred through waveform modeling indicate reverse-oblique fault motion on a ∼75 km2 plane dipping to the northeast, which is corroborated by the located aftershock distribution. Stress-drop values of the mainshock and larger aftershocks were estimated through S-wave spectrum modeling, with values up to ∼250 MPa for the mainshock. The event occurred in a cold section of the continental crust under the Central Valley, and its fault kinematics and orientation are consistent with the dominant style of faulting and stress field under the neighboring Coastal Cordillera. Although our recurrence analysis shows that crustal events in the region occur at a lower rate than interplate and inslab events, crustal events of similar or higher magnitude than the Pica earthquake have occurred, on average, approximately once every three years in northern Chile, which could pose an important hazard to nearby populations or critical infrastructure.

Impact of sedimentary basins on Green’s functions for static slip inversion

SUMMARY Earthquakes often occur in regions with complex material structure, such as sedimentary basins or mantle wedges. However, the majority of co-seismic modelling studies assume a simplified, often homogeneous elastic structure in order to expedite the process of model construction and speed up calculations. These co-seismic forward models are used to produce Green’s functions for finite-fault inversions, so any assumptions made in the forward model may introduce bias into estimated slip models. In this study, we use a synthetic model of a sedimentary basin to investigate the impact of 3-D elastic structure on forward models of co-seismic surface deformation. We find that 3-D elastic structure can cause changes in the shape of surface deformation patterns. The magnitude of this effect appears to be primarily controlled by the magnitude of contrast in material properties, rather than the sharpness of contrast, the fault orientation, the location of the fault, or the slip orientation. As examples of real-world cases, we explore the impact of 3-D elastic structure with a model of the Taipei basin in Taiwan and a simulated earthquake on the Sanchaio fault, and with a 3-D geologic model of the San Francisco Bay Area and a slip model of the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake on the Calaveras fault. Once again, we find that the presence of the basin leads to differences in the shape and amplitude of the surface deformation pattern, but we observe that the primary differences are in the magnitude of surface deformation and can be accounted for with a layered elastic structure. Our results imply that the use of homogeneous Green’s functions may lead to bias in inferred slip models in regions with sedimentary basins, so, at a minimum, a layered velocity structure should be used.

Propagation of Nonplanar SH Waves Emanating from a Fault Source around a Lined Tunnel

An analytical solution is presented for scattering nonplanar SH waves emanating from a fault source using a lined tunnel. The lined tunnel is assumed to be an annular elastic solid in half-space. A simplified circular arc fault model is employed to represent the wave source. By means of the separation of variables method, all wave fields are given in terms of the wave function series with unknown coefficients. Taking advantage of the method of images, the zero-stress boundary condition on the horizontal ground surface is satisfied automatically. By applying Graf’s addition formula, a system of equations for seeking the unknowns is derived by taking advantage of the boundary conditions. The problem of wave scattering is finally solved after seeking solutions for the system of equations through standard matrix techniques. The effects of fault distance, fault curvature, and fault orientation are revealed with numerical results. It is found that the plane waves provide a good approximation to the fault-induced cylindrical waves when the source-receiver distance or fault radius of curvature is larger enough. Fault-induced topographic effects are strongly affected by source orientation.

Earthquake Rupture on Multiple Splay Faults and Its Effect on Tsunamis

AbstractDetailed imaging of accretionary wedges reveals splay fault networks that could pose a significant tsunami hazard. However, the dynamics of multiple splay fault activation during megathrust earthquakes and the consequent effects on tsunami generation are not well understood. We use a 2‐D dynamic rupture model with complex topo‐bathymetry and six curved splay fault geometries constrained from realistic tectonic loading modeled by a geodynamic seismic cycle model with consistent initial stress and strength conditions. We find that all splay faults rupture coseismically. While the largest splay fault slips due to a complex rupture branching process from the megathrust, all other splay faults are activated either top down or bottom up by dynamic stress transfer induced by trapped seismic waves. We ascribe these differences to local non‐optimal fault orientations and variable along‐dip strength excess. Generally, rupture on splay faults is facilitated by their favorable stress orientations and low strength excess as a result of high pore‐fluid pressures. The ensuing tsunami modeled with non‐linear 1‐D shallow water equations consists of one high‐amplitude crest related to rupture on the longest splay fault and a second broader wave packet resulting from slip on the other faults. This results in two episodes of flooding and a larger run‐up distance than the single long‐wavelength (300 km) tsunami sourced by the megathrust‐only rupture. Since splay fault activation is determined by both variable stress and strength conditions and dynamic activation, considering both tectonic and earthquake processes is relevant for understanding tsunamigenesis.

Cause analysis of pit wall collapses in Kumtor Mine

In 2002 and 2006, pit walls collapsed in Kumtor Mine. The collapse of 2002 was accompanied by negative consequences. The volume of the collapsed rock mass was about 3 Mm3. The height of the collapse was 280 meters, and the width of the collapse at the base was about 270 meters. It took a significant amount of cost and time to resume the work of the open pit. In all cases of pit wall collapses, it is important to perform a cause analysis in order to reduce the risk of re-collapse in the course of further mining. The investigation analyzed data from monitoring of pit wall displacements, structural mapping, rock properties, meteorological and seismic data, groundwater level data, mining sequence prior to collapse, etc. Explanations of eyewitnesses of the collapse were heard. Invited experts from various consulting firms considered various versions of the possible causes and processes that led to the collapse, but so far the final opinion among experts about the reasons for the collapse in 2002 has not been formed. It is believed that the main reason for the collapse was the unfavorable three-dimensional orientation of the fault, which was not identified during the period of engineering and geological surveys. In support of this version, the results of numerical simulations in a 2D formulation were presented. Numerical modeling showed that a similar picture of pit wall collapse is possible in the presence of a gently dipping fault, which cuts the exposed steeply dipping fault. At the same time, the gently dipping fault did not have an outlet to the surface of the wall and extended below the bottom of the open pit. To improve the safety of mining operations, it was decided to clarify the structural-tectonic and geological model of the open pit and update the field observation program by use a laser monitoring system. Thanks to the updated monitoring system, it was possible to avoid the tragic consequences of the collapse of the pit wall in 2006. At the same time, the collapse occurred and it was necessary to analyze the causes of the collapse. The main direction of the analysis of the causes of collapse is the search for structural-tectonic faults, along which the collapse surface was formed. The search for the failure surface, taking into account the exposed surfaces of structural-tectonic faults, indicates that the failure surface is not always formed according to the classical schemes adopted for fractured rock masses. The pit wall collapses that occurred in Kumtor Mine in 2002 and 2006 indicate that the failure surface was formed by several intersecting structural-tectonic faults. The analysis of the causes of pit wall failure should be performed taking into account the three-dimensional orientation of structural faults on the basis of numerical modeling. 3D numerical modeling was carried out in FLAC 3D. The numerical simulation results for the collapse confirmed that the 2006 failure surface was formed from several structural faults. The obtained results allowed the development of recommendations for safe mining operations for 15 years.

Crustal anisotropy beneath southeastern Tibet inferred from directional dependence of receiver functions

The present study reveals depth-dependent crustal anisotropic signatures beneath southeastern Tibet. It is used to characterize the rheology of major faults and shear zones, which is important for understanding crustal deformation and geodynamic processes beneath the study area. The depth-dependent anisotropic orientations have been investigated based on the directional dependence of radial and tangential receiver functions (RFs). To achieve our objective, we first computed 3683 good-quality P-RFs from 174 teleseismic earthquakes (M ≥ 5.5) recorded within epicentral distance range of 30∘ to 90∘ at 70 seismic stations of the Eastern Syntaxis experiment (XE Network). After that, we employed the harmonic decomposition technique at each seismic station to retrieve the first (k = 0), second (k = 1) and third (k = 2) degree harmonics from the RF dataset. Our study characterizes the type (horizontal or plunging) of the symmetry axis. The anisotropic axes of the upper crust (0–20 km) appear to vary from approximately N-S to NE-SW. They are usually orthogonal to orientations of major faults and suture zones in the region, implying the effect of structure-induced anisotropy. It can be explained by regularly oriented cracks or macroscopic structure alignment along the major faults. The anisotropic orientations of the middle crust (20–40 km) are NE-SW to E-W direction, reflecting a different pattern than those estimated in the upper crust. The lower crustal (40–70 km) anisotropic pattern (E-W or ESE-WNW direction) exhibits distinct orientations than the upper and middle crust. The crystal preferred orientations (CPO) of the mica and amphibole minerals are likely to cause anisotropy observed at mid-to-lower crustal depth ranges, emphasizing the role of ductile deformation due to material movement towards the east underneath southeastern Tibet. Our results, along with S(K)KS and direct S-waves splitting signatures, suggest mid-to-lower crust and lithospheric mantle material movement towards the east, while the discrepancies in anisotropic symmetric axes directions may be indicative for the partial coupling between the crust and upper mantle beneath the region.

Use of scenario earthquakes for seismic hazard assessment in low-seismicity, stable continental regions: A case study from Indiana, USA

While large earthquakes have been documented in stable continental regions, such as the central United States, they occur too infrequently to provide reliable observations of earthquake-related impacts. Using the state of Indiana as a case study, we investigate the impacts of five deterministic scenarios—three occurring outside the borders of the state and two within the state. They include a M7.3 Wabash Valley event in southern Illinois, a M7.6 New Madrid event in southeastern Missouri, a M6.2 event in west central Ohio, a M6.2 event near Evansville, Indiana, and a M5.8 Indianapolis event. The locations and magnitudes are based on known fault locations and credible interpretations of the earthquake history in the region. We use a combination of the US Geological Survey’s ShakeMap and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Hazus software packages to assess earthquake-triggered ground shaking and its effects on the built environment. We also use the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Ground Failure estimation tool to examine the spatial distribution of anticipated earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction. The five main deterministic scenario models indicate that moderate-sized urban earthquakes may represent a greater threat to a state like Indiana than a large-magnitude event from the New Madrid seismic zone. To better understand the influence of earthquake source parameters on impacts, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for earthquakes near Indianapolis and Evansville, where we reviewed losses due to differences in magnitude, depth, strike, and dip. Based on the model projections, magnitude and depth have first-order and relatively predictable influence on losses. The orientation and dip of the causative fault in relation to populated areas can alter economic losses for an event of the same magnitude by 13%–32%. Deterministic scenario analyses, such as those presented here, can potentially be of widespread utility for understanding earthquake impacts in the central United States and other low-seismicity, stable continental regions.