For a vehicle operating under different line conditions, coupled with track irregularity and many other factors, the carbody is subjected to extremely complex random loads, and the load mainly exists in the form of an alternating load; therefore, the primary type of failure is fatigue failure. With the continuous improvement in train speed, lightweight designs of carbody structures and the application of high-strength aluminium alloy, the safety and reliability of a carbody require more attention. An investigation of the dynamic fatigue reliability of a full-scale carbody of a high-speed train under random load conditions is carried out. A dynamics model of the vehicle system has been established for acquiring the time history of forces acting on the carbody by each air spring (hereinafter referred to as ‘the load–time history’). A surrogate model (a simple model instead of a complex carbody model) of the carbody is established based on the Box–Behnken matrix design and the polynomial fitting method; then, the load–time history is transformed to the stress–time history of the points of concern, and the results are compared with the results of the transient analysis, which verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the surrogate model. Then, a stress block spectrum is obtained by rain flow counting, and the stress probability distribution is determined. Combined with the probability distribution of fatigue strength, a dynamic stress–strength interference model (the area of interference between strength and stress in the model changes over time) is established. The failure rate and dynamic reliability of the points of concern for two cases are analysed: without considering the strength degradation and considering the strength degradation. The results show that without considering the strength degradation during service, with increased service mileage, the fatigue strength reliability of the points of concern decreases continuously, and the corresponding failure rate of the points of concern decreases with time and reaches a steady value, which has the characteristics of the first two stages of the bathtub curve. By considering the strength degradation during service, the reliability of the points of concern decreases gradually, and the corresponding failure rate of the points of concern decreases and then increases, with all the features of the bathtub curve. In addition, compared with the base metal region, the fatigue resistance of the welded structure decreases due to welding. Under the same service conditions, the reliability of the welded region is relatively low, and fatigue failure is more likely to occur.
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