Fatal Cardiovascular Disease Research Articles

Impact of common cardio-metabolic risk factors on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Latin America and the Caribbean: an individual-level pooled analysis of 31 cohort studies

BackgroundEstimates of the burden of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) rely on relative risks (RRs) from non-LAC countries. Whether these RRs apply to LAC remains unknown.MethodsWe pooled LAC cohorts. We estimated RRs per unit of exposure to body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC) and non-HDL cholesterol on fatal (31 cohorts, n=168,287) and non-fatal (13 cohorts, n=27,554) cardiovascular diseases, adjusting for regression dilution bias. We used these RRs and national data on mean risk factor levels to estimate the number of cardiovascular deaths attributable to non-optimal levels of each risk factor.ResultsOur RRs for SBP, FPG and TC were like those observed in cohorts conducted in high-income countries; however, for BMI, our RRs were consistently smaller in people below 75 years of age. Across risk factors, we observed smaller RRs among older ages. Non-optimal SBP was responsible for the largest number of attributable cardiovascular deaths ranging from 38 per 100,000 women and 54 men in Peru, to 261 (Dominica, women) and 282 (Guyana, men). For non-HDL cholesterol, the lowest attributable rate was for women in Peru (21) and men in Guatemala (25), and the largest in men (158) and women (142) from Guyana.InterpretationRRs for BMI from studies conducted in high-income countries may overestimate disease burden metrics in LAC; conversely, RRs for SBP, FPG and TC from LAC cohorts are similar to those estimated from cohorts in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust (214185/Z/18/Z)

Bone mineral density and risk of cardiovascular disease in men and women: the HUNT study

The association between bone mineral density (BMD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. We evaluated BMD as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and specifically atrial fibrillation (AF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), ischemic (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and heart failure (HF) in men and women. This prospective population cohort utilized data on 22 857 adults from the second and third surveys of the HUNT Study in Norway free from CVD at baseline. BMD was measured using single and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in the non-dominant distal forearm and T-score was calculated. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated from adjusted cox proportional hazards models. The analyses were sex-stratified, and models were adjusted for age, age-squared, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, alcohol use, and education level. Additionally, in women, we adjusted for estrogen use and postmenopause. During a mean follow-up of 13.6 ± 5.7 years, 2 928 individuals (12.8%) developed fatal or non-fatal CVD, 1 020 AF (4.5%), 1 172 AMI (5.1%), 1 389 IS (6.1%), 264 HS (1.1%), and 464 HF (2.0%). For every 1 unit decrease in BMD T-score the HR for any CVD was 1.01 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.04) in women and 0.99 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.03) in men. Point estimates for the four cardiovascular outcomes ranged from slightly protective (HR 0.95 for AF in men) to slightly deleterious (HR 1.12 for HS in men). We found no evidence of association of lower distal forearm BMD with CVD, AF, AMI, IS, HS, and HF.

Obstructive sleep apnea predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease-related mortality in the Sleep Heart Health Study: a machine learning approach.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is considered to be an important risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to develop and evaluate a machine learning approach with a set of features for assessing the 10-year CVD mortality risk of the OSA population. This study included 2,464 patients with OSA who met study inclusion criteria and were selected from the Sleep Heart Health Study. We evaluated the importance of potential features by mutual information. The top 9 features were selected to develop a random forest model. We evaluated the model performance on a test set (n = 493) using the area under the receiver operating curve with 95% confidence interval and confusion matrix. A random forest model awarded the highest area under the receiver operating curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.89). The specificity and sensitivity were 73.94% and 81.82%, respectively. Sixty-three years old was a threshold for increased risk of 10-year CVD mortality. Persons with severe OSA had higher risk than those with mild OSA. This study demonstrated that a random forest model can provide a quick assessment of the risk of 10-year CVD mortality. Our model may be more informative for patients with OSA in determining their future CVD mortality risk. Li A, Roveda JM, Powers LS, Quan SF. Obstructive sleep apnea predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease-related mortality in the Sleep Heart Health Study: a machine learning approach. J Clin Sleep Med. 2022;18(2):497-504.

Prediction framework for upper body sedentary working behaviour by using deep learning and machine learning techniques.

Public health experts and healthcare professionals are gradually identifying sedentary activity as a population-wide, pervasive health risk. The purpose of this paper is to propose a method to identify the changes in posture during sedentary work and to give feedback by analysing the identified posture of the upper body, i.e. hands, shoulder, and head positioning. After capturing the image of the human pose, pre-processing of the image takes place with a bandpass filter, which helps to reduce the noise and morphological operation, which is used to carry out the process of dilation, erosion and opening of an image. To predict the results easily with the use of texture feature extraction, it helps to extract the image’s feature. Then, accuracy is predicted by using the deep neural network techniques, to predict the result accurately. After prediction and analysis, the feedback system is developed to alert individuals through the alarm system. The proposed method is formulated by using DNN for prediction in the MATLAB software tool. The results show accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the prediction using a deep neural network are 97.2%, 88.7% and 99.1%. The proposed method is compared with the existing methods SVM, Random Forest and KNN algorithms. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the existing algorithms are SVM with 77.6%, 57.4 and 97.8%; Random Forest with 80.6%, 63.7% and 97.5%; and KNN with 65.8%, 61.2%, and 95.1%. This concept helps to prevent the impact of sedentary activity on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular and musculoskeletal diseases, respectively.

Association and pathways between shift work and cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study of 238 661 participants from UK Biobank

BackgroundThis study aimed to study the association between shift work and incident and fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to explore modifying and mediating factors.MethodsThis is a population-based, prospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 11 years; 238 661 UK Biobank participants who were in paid employment or self-employed at baseline assessment were included.ResultsShift workers had higher risk of incident [hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–1.19] and fatal (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08–1.44) CVD compared with non-shift workers, after adjusting for socio-economic and work-related factors. The risk was higher with longer duration of shift work, in women and in jobs with little heavy manual labour. Current smoking, short sleep duration, poor sleep quality, adiposity, higher glycated haemoglobin and higher cystatin C were identified as the main potentially modifiable mediators. Mediators collectively explained 52.3% of the associations between shift work and incident CVDs.ConclusionsShift workers have higher risk of incident and fatal CVD, partly mediated through modifiable risk factors such as smoking, sleep duration and quality, adiposity and metabolic status. Workplace interventions targeting these mediators have the potential to alleviate shift workers’ CVD risk.

Salusin-β in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism and low to moderate cardiovascular disease risk

Abstract :BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Because Subclinical hypothyroidism may be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, we aimed to measure the level of salusin-β which is a new biomarker for predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in those patients.PATIENTS AND METHODS: 57 subclinical hypothyroid patients were compared with a control group of 60 euthyroid subjects whose age and sex were matched to the patient group. Both groups have low to moderate 10-year risk of fatal CVD. We studied the serum level of salusin-β in the selected group of SC hypothyroid patients to find out if it can be used as an indicator of the cardiovascular adverse effects in them. We also studied the association between salusin-β levels and TSH level, thyroid Ab, and individual’s risk of CVD.RESULTS: Salusin-β was higher in the SC hypothyroidism group with a significant difference (p = 0.001). TSH, FT4, diastolic BP and triglycerides showed a significant difference between the two groups. Systolic BP, total cholesterol, smoking, and SCORE showed no significant difference between the two groups. There was a highly +ve correlation with TSH level in the SC hypothyroid group.Conclusion:The elevated salusin-𝛽 level supports the opinion that SC hypothyroidism has a cardiovascular risk and can support treatment of these cases whose TSH < 10 mIU/l.KEYWORDS: salusin-β, Subclinical hypothyroidism, cardiovascular disease risk.

Public health impact of low-dose aspirin on colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease and safety in the UK - Results from micro-simulation model.

BackgroundLow-dose aspirin therapy reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease and may have a positive effect on the prevention of colorectal cancer. We evaluated the population-level expected effect of regular low-dose aspirin use on cardiovascular disease (CVD), colorectal cancer (CRC), gastrointestinal bleeding, symptomatic peptic ulcers, and intracranial hemorrhage, using a microsimulation study design.MethodsWe used individual-level state transition modeling to assess the impact of aspirin in populations aged 50–59 or 60–69 years old indicated for low-dose aspirin usage for primary or secondary CVD prevention. Model parameters were based on data from governmental agencies from the UK or recent publications.ResultsIn the 50–59 years cohort, a decrease in incidence rates (IRs per 100 000 person years) of non-fatal CVD (-203 and −794) and fatal CVD (-97 and-381) was reported in the primary and secondary CVD prevention setting, respectively. The IR reduction of CRC (-96 and −93) was similar for primary and secondary CVD prevention. The IR increase of non-fatal (116 and 119) and fatal safety events (6 and 6) was similar for primary and secondary CVD prevention. Similar results were obtained for the 60–69 years cohort.ConclusionsThe decrease in fatal CVD and CRC events was larger than the increase in fatal safety events and this difference was more pronounced when low-dose aspirin was used for secondary compared to primary CVD prevention. These results provide a comprehensive image of the expected effect of regular low-dose aspirin therapy in a UK population indicated to use aspirin for CVD prevention.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity in people who have rheumatoid arthritis at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease: a cross-sectional study.

Lower cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA) associate with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the relationship between CRF and PA in people who have rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at an increased CVD risk (CVD-RA) is not known. The objectives of this study were to determine the levels of CRF and PA in people who have CVD-RA and to investigate the association of CRF with PA in people who have CVD-RA. A total of 24 consecutive patients (19 women) with CVD-RA (> 4% for 10-year risk of fatal CVD development as calculated using the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation)-were included in the study. CRF was assessed with a graded maximal exercise test determining maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). PA was assessed with an accelerometer to determine the amount of step count, sedentary, light and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) minutes per day. Mean age of patients was 65.3 ± 8.3years. CRF mean values were 16.3 ± 1.2ml·kg-1min-1, mean step count per day was 6033 ± 2256, and the mean MVPA time was 16.7min per day. Significant positive associations were found for CRF with step count (B = 0.001, P = 0.01) and MVPA time (B = 0.15, P = 0.02); a negative association was found for CRF with sedentary time (B = - 0.02, P = 0.03). CRF is low and is associated with step count, sedentary time and MVPA time in people who have RA at an increased CVD risk.

Albumin Nanoparticle Formulation for Heart-Targeted Drug Delivery: In Vivo Assessment of Congestive Heart Failure.

Congestive heart failure is a fatal cardiovascular disease resulting in tissue necrosis and loss of cardiac contractile function. Inotropic drugs such as milrinone are commonly used to improve the myocardial contractility and heart function. However, milrinone is associated with severe side effects and lower circulation time. In this article, a novel protein nanoparticle formulation for heart-targeted delivery of milrinone has been designed and tested. The formulation was prepared using albumin protein conjugated with the targeting ligand, angiotensin II peptide to form nanoparticles following the ethanol desolvation method. The formulation was characterized for size, charge, and morphology and tested in a rat model of congestive heart failure to study pharmacokinetics, biodistribution, and efficacy. The overall cardiac output parameters were evaluated comparing the formulation with the control non-targeted drug, milrinone lactate. This formulation exhibited improved pharmacokinetics with a mean retention time of 123.7 min, half-life of 101.3 min, and clearance rate of 0.24 L/(kg*h). The targeted formulation also significantly improved ejection fraction and fractional shortening parameters thus improving cardiac function. This study demonstrates a new approach in delivering inotropic drugs such as milrinone for superior treatment of congestive heart failure.

Riesgo cardiovascular en la población anciana española. Escala de riesgo EPICARDIAN

Background and objectivesCardiovascular risk estimation in people over 70 years of age is problematic. Most scores have been created based on cohorts of middle-aged people, with an underrepresentation of older adults. The predictive power of classical cardiovascular risk factors declines with age. The aim of this work is to develop a specific score for estimating cardiovascular risk among the elderly population in Spain. MethodsThis work is a population-based cohort established in 1995. Setting: 3 geographical areas of Spain (Madrid, Ávila, and Lugo). Participants: 3,729 people older than 64 years with no cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline. Measurements: suspected fatal and nonfatal CVD (both coronary heart disease and stroke) were investigated annually and confirmed using the WHO-MONICA criteria. All participants were followed-up on until occurrence of a first CVD event, until death, or until December 31, 2015. ResultsAge was the strongest predictor of CVD at 10 years in both men and women. In men, variables associated with CVD were high blood pressure treatment (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.067-1.710), diabetes (HR: 1.359; 95% CI: 0.997-1.852), and smoking (HR: 1.207; 95% CI: 0.945-1.541) and in women, the variables were smoking (HR: 1.881; 95% CI: 1.356-2.609) and diabetes (HR: 1.285; 95% CI: 0.967-1.707). Total cholesterol did not increase the risk of CVD in men or women. However, total cholesterol levels>200mg/dL were inversely associated with 10-year risk of CVD in men and women. ConclusionsIn elderly Spanish men, total CVD at 10 years is significantly increased by age, diabetes, and antihypertensive treatment and in elderly Spanish women by diabetes and smoking. Total cholesterol levels did not increase the risk of CVD, particularly in males.

Cardiorespiratory optimal point during exercise testing is related to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

Cardiorespiratory optimal point (COP) during exercise may be a potentially clinically useful cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) variable, but its prognostic relevance for adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes is unknown. We aimed to assess the association of COP during exercise with fatal mortality outcomes and the extent to which COP could improve the prediction of CVD mortality. Cardiorespiratory optimal point, the minimum value of the ventilatory equivalent for oxygen (VE/VO2) in a given minute of a CPET, was defined in 2,205men who underwent CPET. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for outcomes and measures of risk discrimination for CVD mortality were calculated. During a median follow-up of 28.8years, 402 fatal CHDs, 607 fatal CVDs, and 1,348 all-cause mortality events occurred. COP was continually associated with each outcome in a dose-response manner. On adjustment for established and emerging risk factors, the HRs (95% CIs) for fatal CHD, fatal CVD, and all-cause mortality were 3.05 (1.94-4.81), 2.82 (1.91-4.18) and 2.46 (1.85-3.27), respectively, per standard deviation increase in COP. After further adjustment for high sensitivity C-reactive protein, the HRs were 2.82 (1.78-4.46), 2.57 (1.73-3.81), and 2.27 (1.70-3.02), respectively. Addition of COP to a CVD mortality risk prediction model containing established risk factors was associated with a C-index change of 0.0139 (0.0040 to 0.0238; p=0.006) at 25years. COP during exercise is directly associated with fatal cardiovascular and all-cause mortality events in dose-response fashions. COP during exercise may improve the prediction of the long-term risk for CVD mortality.

Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease and its association with metabolic risk factors among waste pickers in South Africa

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among non-communicable diseases in South Africa. Several metabolic risk factors contribute to the development of CVD. Informal workers such as waste pickers could be unhealthy lifestyle naive, and most public health research on CVD does not include this understudied population. This study estimated the 10-year risk of fatal CVD and its association with metabolic risk factors in an understudied study population of waste pickers in Johannesburg, South Africa.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted among waste pickers in two landfill sites in Johannesburg. We used the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk charts to estimate the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. We then employed ordinary least squares regression to assess the association between the 10-year risk of fatal CVD with metabolic risk factors. Other variables adjusted in the regression model were HIV status, education, income, injuries from work, clinic visits in the previous 12 months, and alcohol consumption.ResultsA total of 370 waste pickers were included in this analysis, 265 (73.41%) were males. The mean age of the participants was 34 years. The majority were between the age of 20 and 39 years. More than 55% of the waste pickers did not visit a clinic in the previous 12 months, and 68.57% were smoking. The 10-year survival probability from CVD was more than 99% for both males and females. In the multivariable regression model, elevated blood glucose showed a non-significant increase in the mean percentage of 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Waste pickers who were overweight/obese, and hypertensive had high statistically significant mean percentages of the 10-year risk of fatal CVD compared to those who did not have the metabolic risk factors.ConclusionsPrevention of 10-year risk of fatal CVD in this understudied population of waste pickers should target the control of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Health awareness and education for waste pickers will be an important step in reducing the burden of these metabolic risk factors. We further recommend that health systems should recognize waste pickers as a high-risk group and consider extensive CVDs surveillance.

Health-related quality of life and incident cardiovascular disease events in community-dwelling older people: A prospective cohort study

BackgroundLower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been shown to predict a higher risk of hospital readmission and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few studies have explored the associations between HRQoL and incident CVD. We explored the associations between baseline HRQoL and incident and fatal CVD in community-dwelling older people in Australia and the United States. MethodsLongitudinal study using ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial data. This includes 19,106 individuals aged 65–98 years, initially free of CVD, dementia, or disability, and followed between March 2010 and June 2017. The physical (PCS) and mental component scores (MCS) of HRQoL were assessed using the SF-12 questionnaire. Incident major adverse CVD events included fatal CVD (death due to atherothrombotic CVD), hospitalizations for heart failure, myocardial infarction or stroke. Analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazard regression. ResultsOver a median 4.7 follow-up years, there were 922 incident CVD events, 203 fatal CVD events, 171 hospitalizations for heart failure, 355 fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction and 403 fatal or nonfatal strokes. After adjustment for sociodemographic, health-related behaviours and clinical measures, a 10-unit higher PCS, but not MCS, was associated with a 14% lower risk of incident CVD, 28% lower risk of hospitalization for heart failure and 15% lower risk of myocardial infarction. Neither PCS nor MCS was associated with fatal CVD events or stroke. ConclusionPhysical HRQoL can be used in combination with clinical data to identify the incident CVD risk among older individuals.

Visit-to-visit office blood pressure variability revisited in SPRINT.

Visit-to-visit office blood pressure variability revisited in SPRINT.

Percentage of Age-Predicted Cardiorespiratory Fitness Is Inversely Associated with Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

Introduction: Percentage of age-predicted cardiorespiratory fitness (% age-predicted CRF) is a potentially useful cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) parameter, but there are limited data on its prognostic relevance for adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes. We aimed to assess the association of % age-predicted CRF with CVD mortality and the extent to which % age-predicted CRF measurements could improve the prediction of CVD mortality. Methods: Peak oxygen uptake, used as the measure of CRF, was directly assessed in 2,276 men who underwent CPX. The age-predicted CRF estimated from a regression equation for age was transformed to % age-predicted CRF with the following formula: (achieved CRF/age-predicted CRF) × 100. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) and measures of risk discrimination for CVD mortality were calculated. Results: During a median follow-up of 28.5 years, 643 fatal CVDs were recorded. The relationship between % age-predicted CRF and CVD mortality was dose response in nature. In analysis adjusted for conventional risk factors, one standard deviation increase in % age-predicted CRF was associated with a reduced risk of CVD mortality (HR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.56–0.67), which was minimally attenuated on further adjustment for several other confounders (HR 0.71; 95% CI: 0.64–0.78). Addition of % age-predicted CRF to a CVD mortality risk prediction model containing established risk factors significantly improved risk discrimination and reclassification. Conclusion: Percentage of age-predicted CRF is inversely and independently associated with CVD mortality in a graded fashion and significantly improves the prediction and classification of the long-term risk for CVD mortality beyond established risk factors.

Adherence to international dietary recommendations in association with all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective analysis of UK Biobank participants

BackgroundInternational dietary guidelines aim to reduce risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and fatal CVD often associated with poor dietary habits. However, most studies have examined associations with individual nutrients, foods, or dietary patterns, as opposed to quantifying the pooled health effects of adherence to international dietary recommendations. We investigated associations between total adherence to the World Health Organization (WHO) dietary recommendations for saturated fats, free sugars, fibre, and fruits and vegetables and all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CVD.MethodsWe included participants from the UK Biobank cohort recruited in 2006–2010, which provided at least two valid 24-h dietary assessments. We defined adherence to dietary recommendations as ≤ 10% saturated fats, ≤ 10% free sugars, ≥ 25 g/day fibre, and ≥ 5 servings of fruits and vegetables/day. Multivariable Cox-proportional hazards models were used to investigate prospective associations with all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CVD. In cross-sectional analyses, multivariable linear regression was used to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors.ResultsAmong 115,051 participants (39–72 years), only 29.7%, 38.5%, 22.3%, and 9.5% met 0, 1, 2, or 3–4 recommendations, respectively. There was a lower risk of all-cause mortality among participants meeting more dietary recommendations (Ptrend < 0.001), with a significantly lower risk among participants meeting 2: HR 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–0.97) and 3–4: HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.88) recommendations. There was no trend with CVD risk, but a significantly lower risk of fatal CVD with 3–4 recommendations: HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.61–0.98). Meeting more recommendations resulted in significant cross-sectional trends (Ptrend < 0.001) towards lower body fat, waist circumference, LDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, triglycerides, alkaline phosphatase, gamma glutammyltransferase, and hs-CRP, but higher glucose and aspartate aminotransferase.ConclusionsMeeting dietary recommendations is associated with additive reductions in premature mortality. Motivating and supporting people to adhere to dietary guidelines may help extend years of healthy life expectancy.

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe.

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Are competing-risk models superior to standard Cox models for predicting cardiovascular risk in older adults? Analysis of a whole-of-country primary prevention cohort aged ≥65 years.

Both cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and deaths from non-CVD causes, which may preclude a CVD event, increase with age. We evaluated whether accounting for the competing risk of non-CVD death improves the performance of CVD risk-prediction equations in older adults. All New Zealanders aged ≥65 years in 2012 without a prior CVD hospitalization were identified by anonymized linkage of eight routinely collected national health data sets. Sex-specific equations estimating the 5-year risk of a fatal or non-fatal CVD event were constructed using standard Cox and Fine-Gray (competing-risk) approaches. The pre-specified predictors were: age, ethnicity, deprivation level, diabetes, atrial fibrillation and baseline preventive pharmacotherapy. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination in the overall cohort and in ethnic and age-specific subgroups. Among 360 443 people aged ≥65 years with 1 615 412 person-years of follow-up, 14.6% of men and 12.1% of women had a first CVD event, whereas 8.5% of men and 7.6% of women died from a non-CVD cause. Standard Cox models overestimated the mean predicted the 5-year CVD risk by ∼1% overall and by 5-6% in the highest risk deciles. The mean predicted CVD risk from the Fine-Gray models approximated the observed risk overall, although slight underestimation occurred in some subgroups. Discrimination was similar for both models. In a whole-of-country primary prevention cohort aged ≥65 years, standard Cox models overestimated the 5-year CVD risk whereas the Fine-Gray models were generally better calibrated. New CVD risk equations that take competing risks into account should be considered for older people.

Risk Factors for the Recurrence of CVD Incidents in Post-Stroke Patients over a 5-Year Follow-Up Period Based on the ICF Classification.

Background and Objectives: Stroke is a strong risk factor for recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidents. The risk of post-stroke CVD incidents can be reduced by eliminating the most relevant risk factors. The aim of the study was to compare the incidence of recurrent CVD events and to determine the quantitative and qualitative differences in CVD risk factors over the 5-year follow-up period in patients with ischemic stroke (IS) and haemorrhagic stroke (ICH) with the use of ICF classification categories to present these differences. Materials and Methods: The study was retrospective. The study groups included 55 post-IS patients and 47 post-ICH patients. The results were translated into the categories from the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) classification. Results: As compared to post-ICH patients, post-IS patients were significantly more frequently observed to have recurrent CVD incidents (p < 0.001), including fatal CVD incidents (p = 0.003). More risk factors in total were identified in both post-IS patients (p = 0.031) and post-ICH patients (p = 0.002) who had a recurrent CVD incident. Post-IS patients were more often found to have arterial blood pressure higher than 140/90 mmHg (p = 0.045). On the other hand, post-ICH patients were more frequently observed to have carotid artery stenosis in the range of 50–69% (p = 0.028) and an eGFR of <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 (p = 0.001). Conclusions: The type of primary stroke determines the type and incidence of risk factors as well as the recurrence rate of CVD incidents over a 5-year follow-up period. Patients after IS have a higher risk of recurrence of CVD events, including fatal ones in the 5-year follow-up compared to patients after ICH. In addition, post-IS patients who have a recurrent CVD event over a 5-year follow-up have more risk factors for a CVD event than ICH. The ICF classification can be useful for assessing and analysing risk factors for recurrent CVD incidents, which can help to improve the effectiveness of secondary prevention.

PCV15 Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for and Treating Masked Hypertension with out-of-Office Blood Pressure Monitoring

Masked hypertension (office blood pressure [BP] <130/80 mmHg, out-of-office BP ≥130/80 mmHg) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) event risk nearly two-fold compared to sustained normotension (office BP <130/80 mmHg, out-of-office BP <130/80 mmHg) . We compared the lifetime health and economic outcomes of screening for and treating masked hypertension by adding ambulatory or home BP monitoring (i.e., ABPM or HBPM) to standard care (no screening) from a US healthcare sector perspective. The CVD Policy Model, a microsimulation health state transition model, simulates the annual risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events, treatment-related adverse events, and non-CVD deaths. We simulated screening of 500,000 US adults aged ≥20 years at risk for masked hypertension (office BP 120-129/<80 mmHg, on no antihypertensive medications, without CVD history). Based on published literature, we assumed ABPM had 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity (gold standard), and HBPM had 91.8% sensitivity and 41.4% specificity. We projected total direct health care costs (2020 USD), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Future costs and QALYs were discounted 3% annually. A threshold of <$150,000/QALY gained defined intermediate cost-effectiveness. Primary analyses were performed using 100 probabilistic simulations. Parameter uncertainty was assessed using one-way sensitivity analyses. Relative to standard care, mean (95%CI) time to first CVD event increased with ABPM 0.232 (0.152-0.326) years and 0.233 (0.149-0.328) years with HBPM masked hypertension screening, but the percent experiencing treatment-related serious adverse events increased 10.9% (9.8%-11.7%) with ABPM and 11.4% (11.1%-11.7%) with HBPM. Compared to standard care, lifetime QALYs increased 0.018 (0.005-0.034) with ABPM and 0.017 (0.003-0.032) with HBPM screening, but neither strategy was cost-effective (ICER: ABPM $433,000/QALY gained, HBPM $428,000/QALY gained). No sensitivity analyses resulted in either ABPM or HBPM becoming cost-effective. Screening for masked hypertension with ABPM or HBPM leads to modest health gains but is not cost-effective compared to standard care.