Farmland Protection Policies Research Articles

The Prohibition of Forestation on Cultivated Land in China: A Difference-in-Differences Model Analysis of the Effects of Cutting Down Trees on Farmland Transfer

The implementation of China’s stringent farmland protection policy has resulted in the compulsory removal of trees from farmland, which has significantly impacted farmers’ willingness to transfer their land. To explain the impact of cutting trees on farmers’ land transfer, this study conducted a two-way fixed-effect difference-in-differences (DID) model based on a survey of 163 households in Daxiapo Village in China during 2020–2023. The results show that cutting trees significantly promotes farmland transfer among farmers. Moreover, the promotion effect of cutting trees is more pronounced when transferring land in than it is when transferring land out. For land plots with poor accessibility and fertility, the effects of transferring land out are more significant than for plots that are fertile and conveniently located. As a result, the prohibition of forestation on farmland has increased the contiguity of some land plots and improved the spatial configuration of farmland, but land fragmentation is still prominent on land owned by large-scale farmers. Therefore, this paper proposes two optimization scenarios to address the issue of farmland fragmentation and compares the feasibility of these plans in the short and long term. This paper suggests that short-term policies prohibiting forestation can trigger abrupt changes in farmland transfer patterns and drive further changes in the spatial configuration of farmland. Though some large-scale farming households were established through land transfer, the problem of plot fragmentation must be solved. This article presents several possible scenarios to aid in the design of more systematic policy systems to balance the protection of cultivated land, farmers’ willingness, and the spatial contiguity of cultivated land.

How to Achieve the Ecological Sustainability Goal of Ecologically Fragile Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multi-Scenario Simulation of Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomerations

The future of the ecologically fragile areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a matter of concern. With the implementation of the Western Development Strategy, the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration (LXUA) has encountered conflicts and compromises between urban expansion, ecological protection, and farmland protection policies in the rapid development of the past 2 decades. These deeply affect the land use layout, making the ecological sustainable development of the ecologically fragile areas of the QTP a complex and urgent issue. Exploring the impact of different policy-led land use patterns on regional ecosystem services is of great significance for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas and the formulation of relevant policies. Following the logical main line of “history-present-future”, the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, which explores potential factors of historical land use, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model were used to construct three future scenarios for the modernization stage in 2031 dominated by different land use policies in this study. These scenarios include the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BS), the Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EP). The study analyzed and predicted land use changes in the LXUA from 2001 to 2031 and assessed carbon storage, habitat quality at different time points, and water yield in 2021. The results indicated that land use changes from 2001 to 2021 reflect the impacts and conflicts among the Western Development Strategy, ecological protection policies, and cropland preservation policies. In 2031, construction land continues to increase under all three scenarios, expanding northwards around Lanzhou, consistent with the actual “northward expansion” trend of Lanzhou City. Changes in other land uses are in line with the directions guided by land use policy. By 2031, carbon storage and habitat quality decline under all scenarios, with the highest values observed in the EP scenario, the lowest carbon storage in the BS scenario, and the lowest habitat quality in the CP scenario. Regarding water yield, the LXUA primarily relies on alpine snowmelt, with construction land overlapping high evapotranspiration areas. Based on the assessment of ecosystem services, urban expansion, delineation of ecological red lines, and improvement of cropland quality in the LXUA were proposed. These findings and recommendations can provide a scientific basis for policy makers and planning managers in the future.

Wetland Distribution Prediction Based on CA–Markov Model under Current Land Use and Protection Policy in Sanjiang Plain

The conflict between grain production and wetland resource protection in plain wetland is prominent. Understanding the future impacts of current land use policies on wetlands is the key to rationally evaluating and adjusting these policies. Therefore, the objective of the research was to predict the potential distribution of Sanjiang plain wetland under the current land use and protection policy using remote sensing images and CA Markov models. Methodologically, Landsat TM remote sensing images of the Sanjiang Plain (2010–2020) were used to extract wetland distribution based on object-oriented methods, and the characteristics and patterns of wetland change caused by the land use and protection policies during this period were analyzed. A CA–Markov model was used to predict the potential distribution of Sanjiang Plain wetland in 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. Then, we summarized the advantages and disadvantages of current land use policies and put forward adjustment measures. The results indicate that during 2010 and 2020, the wetland area of Sanjiang Plain decreased by 22.34%. The conversion ratio of wetland to non-wetland type (mainly farmland) in the first half and the second half of the decade was 46.41% and 15.31%, respectively, and the decrease in wetland showed an obvious slowing trend. The spatial distribution prediction in future showed that the wetland area will continue to decline in 2030, and the decline will basically stop in 2040. Finally, the proportion of wetland area will remain at 8.68% of the total area of Sanjiang Plain, with that of some counties and cities less than 5%. It is concluded that, although the current land use policies in Sanjiang Plain can effectively slow down the wetland area shrinking and stabilize the spatial pattern, a very low proportion of wetland area in some areas will make it difficult for the wetland ecosystem to exert ecological functions and ensure regional ecological security. The wetland conservation managers should adjust the current land use policies according to relevant requirements of farmland protection policies and restore the areal proportion and spatial pattern of wetland in order to help with regional sustainable development.

Unraveling patterns, causes, and nature-based remediation strategy for non-grain production on farmland in hilly regions

The surge in non-grain production on farmland (NGPF) poses significant threats to food security and land sustainability, particularly in hilly regions. However, there remains a lack of clarity on how to effectively balance grain and non-grain production in relation to land remediation. Using Wannian County as a case study, we investigate the evolution of this by leveraging high-precision land surveys and satellite imagery. Through the application of bootstrapped partial linear regression models, we identify key influencers behind each type of NGPF. In proposing land remediation solutions, we integrate the results of NGPF and land quality evaluations to identify mismatches between non-grain production and land attributes (i.e., topography, geology, soil, and land use). Our findings reveal a substantial growth in NGPF, expanding from 3838.72 ha to 5659.64 ha (2010–2020), and predominantly occurring on farmland with favorable natural conditions and connected locations such as proximity to roads, town centers, and industrial plants. Surprisingly, the basic farmland protection policy shows limited effectiveness in curbing NGPF, except for garden operations. We identify 1674 NGPF patches suitable for conversion to grain production and provide land remediation suggestions tailored to low-quality farmland with specific natural barriers, thus complementing the demand for regional non-grain production. This study thereby innovatively proposes nature-based land remediation strategies to address the non-grain production dilemma by tailoring NGPF and land quality, offering valuable insights for sustainable farmland management in China and beyond.

Analysis of Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of Low-Carbon Utilization Efficiency of Cultivated Land in China

In order to cope with global climate warming, measurement of the low-carbon utilization efficiency (LCUE) of cultivated land, considering carbon sink and carbon emission effects, is proposed. To address this, based on the data of 30 provinces in China, this study conducts a LCUE evaluation system by the MinDS-U-M productivity index model in order to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of LCUE with the geographic detector model and GTWR model. The results show the following: (1) Over the past 20 years, the average LCUE value exhibits a slow increasing trend from 2001 to 2021, which ranges from 0.9864 to 1.0272. Provinces with mid-level LCUE ranging from 1.0000 to 1.0990 account for the highest proportion in each period. (2) The annual growth rate of LCUE in the central region is the highest, where the promotion of green technology and farmland protection policies have played important roles. (3) According to the Geodetector analysis, urbanization rate (UR), irrigation index (IR), grain output value (GOV), precipitation (PR), arable land area (ALA), and environmental pollution control (EPC) are important drivers of the spatial difference of LCUE. (4) The GTWR model shows that the positive effects of ALA and SRT have always been concentrated in the main grain-producing areas over time. UR and PR have strong explanatory power for the space/time differentiation of LCUE, especially in eastern coastal regions. IR has an increasing effect on LCUE in the Western region, and the positive effect of EPC on the LCUE is concentrated in the central region. In order to coordinate regional LCUE contradictions, it is suggested to be wary of land resource damage caused by economic development, warn about the impacts of climate change, and strengthen the supervision of land remediation projects in order to achieve sustainable land management.

Assessment and management for future habitat risks under the implementation of China's territorial spatial planning: A case study from Hainan Island

Land management policies and their spatial planning are crucial factors leading to the rise of future habitat risks. However, the differences in future habitat risks under various spatial policies and their combinations remain unclear, and there is a lack of targeted measures to manage these risks in China's territorial spatial planning. The study developed a feasible framework to tackle this issue. Eight future land use scenarios were simulated based on the combination of land management policies and spatial planning data, and then the habitat risks associated with each scenario were evaluated. Moreover, the study quantified habitat risk variations across diverse scenarios by examining the spatiotemporal changes in risk centers and their associated risk values. Lastly, the study identified critical risk zones based on the assessment results of risk levels and suggested relevant control strategies. The study area chosen was Hainan Island, a region experiencing rapid urbanization and possessing significant ecological resources. The results suggest that while development plans mitigate habitat loss, they accelerate the movement speed of the risk gravity center by up to 5 times. Under the implementation of farmland protection policies, the overall risk levels exhibit a noticeable increase, with the risk level at the center of gravity rising by up to 3.5 times. Implementing ecological protection red lines reduces the transfer rate of habitat risk centers by at least 0.4 times but generally leads to increased habitat risk levels. This study reveals future habitat risk under China's major land management policies and strengthens habitat risk management worldwide.

Diversification of food production in rapidly urbanizing areas of China, evidence from southern Jiangsu

Suburban food production (SFP) is important in meeting urban residents' diversified food needs and contributing to farmers' livelihoods. However, the relationship between food production types and urban growth could be clearer. To better understand whether rapid urbanization promotes diversified SFP, we studied the changes in food production types and driving factors in the suburban areas of southern Jiangsu, a rapidly urbanizing region of China, from 2001-2020. Our results showed that 1) Urbanization contributed to the diversification of SFP in southern Jiangsu, and non-grain production was mostly concentrated in peri-urban areas. 2) All non-grain production exhibited some spatial agglomeration. 3) The conditions of internal transformation of food types are highly correlated with the stage of urbanization and their characteristics. In addition, farmland protection policies such as basic farmland zones have successfully restrained the specific non-grain production type. Our study contributes to a better understanding the multifaceted relationship between SFP and urban expansion from the land-use perspective. It is a reference for formulating urban-rural spatial planning and cultivating land protection in urbanized areas.

Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Kunming based on PLUS and InVEST models.

Carbon storage is a critical ecosystem service provided by terrestrial environmental systems that can effectively reduce regional carbon emissions and is critical for achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peak. We conducted a study in Kunming and analyzed the land utilization data for 2000, 2010, and 2020. We assessed the features of land utilization conversion and forecasted land utilization under three development patterns in 2030 on the basis of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to estimate changes in carbon storage trends under three development scenarios in 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 and the impact of socioeconomic and natural factors on carbon storage. The results of the study indicated that (1) carbon storage is intimately associated with land utilization practices. Carbon storage in Kunming in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 1.146 × 108 t, 1.139 × 108 t, and 1.120 × 108 t, respectively. During the 20 years, forest land decreased by 142.28 km2, and the decrease in forest land area caused a loss of carbon storage. (2) Carbon storage in 2030 was predicted to be 1.102 × 108 t, 1.136 × 108 t, and 1.105 × 108 t, respectively, under the trend continuation scenario, eco-friendly scenario, and comprehensive development scenario, indicating that implementing ecological protection and cultivated land protection measures can facilitate regional ecosystem carbon storage restoration. (3) Impervious surfaces and vegetation have the greatest influence on carbon storage for the study area. A spatial global and local negative correlation was found between impervious surface coverage and ecosystem carbon storage. A spatial global and local positive correlation was found between NDVI and ecosystem carbon storage. Therefore, ecological and farmland protection policies need to be strengthened, the expansion of impervious surfaces should be strictly controlled, and vegetation coverage should be improved.

Gains and losses of farmland associated with farmland protection policy and urbanization in China: An integrated perspective based on goal orientation

The Requisition-Compensation Balance of Farmland (RCBF) policy remedies the situation where valuable farmland becomes occupied for non-agricultural objectives during the rapid urbanization in China. However, there has been little systematic and provincial research on the RCBF policy. This study explores the establishment of an optimized and differentiated RCBF policy, adapted to regional resource endowments, socioeconomic developments based on the current policy system. We evaluated the holistic performance of gains and losses of farmland in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2015. The aims of this framework include the well-known “quantity-quality-ecological-yield” balance and a significant but undervalued farmland quality improvement object. We compared the differences between gained farmland and lost farmland using the quantity balance index, quality balance index, ecosystem service value benefits-and-losses method, and grain yield spatialization method, respectively. The structural transformation of “dry land to paddy” has been used to evaluate quality improvement. The evaluation results revealed that the challenges of “more occupation than compensation” in quantity have existed for a long time. Additionally, some ecological land was exploited to replenish the farmland, resulting in the unsustainable phenomenon of “dual development and dual loss.” Moreover, the average productivity and average utilization intensity of the gained farmland were superior to those of the lost farmland. This confirms the grain yield gap could be narrowed by increasing farmland utilization intensity. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that a low percentage of farmland in Jiangsu Province had improved in quality and that significant improvement was required. Based on these findings, we encourage Jiangsu Province to focus on improving the quality and productivity of farmland to precisely achieve “quality against quantity and yield balance” to address the quantity imbalance and the resulting ecological risks.

A GIS-Based Typological Interpretation of Cultivated Land Loss: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Tai’an Prefecture in the North China Plain

Loss of cultivated land has become a global issue that is especially critical in populous and rapidly urbanizing countries. However, knowledge in this field in general and its spatiality in particular have long been restrained in developing countries for the lack of accurate and reliable data. This study addresses this issue from a typological perspective by distinguishing the patterns and determinants of the conversion of cultivated land to nonagricultural use, nongrain use, and ecological land use. By using land use survey data from 2009 to 2019, and taking villages as the research units, the cultivated land loss in an ordinary prefecture, Tai’an, in the North China Plain was investigated from its temporal–spatial patterns, destination uses, and various driving factors. GIS methods such as spatial visualization, overlay analysis, and hotspot analysis were used to depict the geography of cultivated land loss in total and by cause. Multiple linear regression models were then developed to explore the roles of natural, locational, economic, social, and policy factors in predicting the overall and three types of cultivated land loss. The results show that (1) the cultivated land area in Tai’an Prefecture decreased by 1338.3 km2 over the decade, which was 32.4% of that in 2009. Ecological use, rather than the widely blamed urban expansion, was the dominant reason, accounting for 55.6% of the total loss of cultivated land. (2) The hotspot areas of cultivated land loss were mainly distributed in the northeastern mountainous area and villages around cities and county seats in the southwest. The hotspot areas of nongrain and ecological conversion were mainly located around the central city, whereas those of nonagricultural conversion were the most extensive around county centers. (3) The factors were found to have heterogeneous effects on the three types of cultivated land loss. For example, land transfer is conducive to large-scale farming and is thus associated with a lower probability of nonagricultural conversion of cultivated land. However, it often facilitates ecological conversion of cultivated land. (4) The basic farmland protection policy was proven to be effective in preventing all three types of cultivated land loss. The above results indicate the great heterogeneity among the three types of cultivated land loss in their geography and determinants, demonstrating the necessity and significance of the typological perspective adopted to interpreting cultivated land loss in urbanizing and transitional societies. To some extent, only by reasonably distinguishing, spatially analyzing, and fully understanding the different types, various causes, and internal structure of cultivated land loss can we formulate more targeted and effective policies of cultivated land protection.

Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Ecological Quality during Urbanization in the Lower Yellow River Basin: A Case Study of Jinan City

Rapid urbanization in the lower Yellow River basin has greatly contributed to the socio-economic development of Northern China, but it has also exacerbated land use/land cover change, with significant impacts on ecology. Ecological quality is a comprehensive spatial and temporal measure of an ecosystem’s elements, structure and function, reflecting the ecological state under external pressures. However, how land use/land cover change affects the ecological quality during urbanization has rarely been explored. In this study, Jinan, a megacity in the lower Yellow River basin, was taken as a typical region, and the response of ecological quality to the land use/land cover change in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was retrieved using the remote sensing ecological index. For the mixed land use/land cover change types, a type-decomposition and spatial heterogeneity quantification method based on the abundance index was proposed, and the impact mechanisms of the land use/land cover change on the ecological quality were revealed by coupling with GeoDetector. The results show that: (1) Farmland and built-up areas, as the dominant land use/land cover types, were the primary factors controlling the spatial pattern of ecological quality. (2) Urban expansion and farmland protection policies resulted in the transfer of farmland and woodland to built-up areas as well as the transfer of woodland and grassland to farmland, which intensified the degradation of ecological quality. (3) Ecological protection policies prompted the transfer of farmland and grassland to woodland and the transfer of farmland to grassland as the main cause for the improvement of ecological quality. (4) Although ecological protection and urban development were implemented in parallel, uneven land use/land cover changes resulted in a 1.4 times expanded area of poorer ecological quality with increasingly serious spatial agglomeration effects. This study can provide scientific references for the ecological conservation and high-quality, sustainable development of cities in the lower Yellow River basin.

A Comparative Analysis of Farmland Occupation by Urban Sprawl and Rural Settlement Expansion in China

The farmland loss caused by urban–rural land development has exacerbated China’s challenges of using limited farmland to feed more than 1.4 billion people. Earlier studies shed light on the impacts of urban sprawl and rural settlement expansion, separately. However, there is little quantitative understanding of which one has more severe impacts on farmland and its net primary productivity (NPP). Thus, this study used spatially explicit satellite data including land-use maps and estimated NPP data, as well as spatiotemporal analysis methods to conduct a comparative analysis of farmland loss due to urban sprawl and rural settlement expansion at different scales from 2000 to 2020 in China. The results show that during the study period, urban sprawl resulted in a loss of 49,086.6 km2 of farmland area and 8.34 TgC of farmland NPP, while the loss of farmland area and farmland NPP due to rural settlement expansion reached 18,006.8 km2 and 3.88 TgC. The largest gap between the total area of farmland loss due to urban sprawl and the total loss area due to rural settlement expansion was 12,983.3 km2 in Eastern China, while the smallest gap was 1291.1 km2 in Northeastern China. The largest gap between the loss of farmland NPP due to urban sprawl and the total loss due to rural settlement expansion occurred in Eastern China at 1.97 TgC. Spatially, the total loss of farmland and its NPP due to urban sprawl and rural settlement expansion occurred mainly in the eastern and central regions of China; the areas of farmland loss by urban sprawl were more concentrated than that by rural settlement expansion. The negative impacts of urban sprawl on farmland area and its NPP were greater in southern China than that of rural settlement expansion. Noticeably, the loss of NPP per unit of farmland due to rural settlement expansion was higher than that by urban sprawl, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The results highlight the non-negligible impacts of rural settlement expansion on farmland in China. It is necessary to improve farmland protection policies by optimizing the spatial allocation of urban and rural construction land.

Rising agricultural water scarcity in China is driven by expansion of irrigated cropland in water scarce regions

Rising agricultural water scarcity in China is driven by expansion of irrigated cropland in water scarce regions

The Use of Cultivated Land for Multiple Functions in Major Grain-Producing Areas in Northeast China: Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Forces

The increasing scarcity of cultivated land resources necessitates the continuous change in cultivated land functions. Cultivated land has gradually changed from being used for a single function to multiple functions. The use of cultivated land for multiple functions has become an important way to achieve the sustainable use, management, and protection of cultivated land. In this, the development of different functions of cultivated land must be coordinated. Thus, clarifying the evolution trend of the use of cultivated land for various functions, calculating the coupling and coordination degrees of these multiple functions, and identifying the driving factors in these uses play important roles in realizing the orderly development of cultivated land multifunctionality. This paper defined multifunctioning cultivated land as containing a production function, a social function, and an ecological function. Based on the socioeconomic panel data and geospatial data of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, which are the major grain-producing areas of northeast China, in the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 we calculated the multiple function coupling coordination degree of cultivated land using the Coupling Coordination Degree Model and identified the driving forces in the evolution of the spatial-temporal pattern of cultivated land multifunctionality using Geodetector. The results show that from 2005 to 2020, there were significant regional differences in terms of the production, social, and ecological functions of cultivated land in the research areas. The multifunctional coupling coordination degree of cultivated land in the study areas was gradually improved. The spatial-temporal evolution of the multifunctional coupling coordination degree of cultivated land was found to mainly be influenced by the level of agricultural development, such as the level of per capita disposable income and the rate of effective irrigation of cultivated land. The government should attempt to guarantee the comparative benefits of agricultural production to increase the income level of farmers; increase investment in agricultural infrastructure construction to improve the level of agriculture development; and implement a strict farmland protection policy to achieve the continuous improvement of the productivity of cultivated land, realize the ordered development of coupling, and improve the coordination of the use of cultivated land for multiple functions. The results of this study are applicable not only to northeast China but also to other major grain-producing areas that are under pressure to protect their cultivated land and achieve the suitable use of cultivated land.

Farmland Preservation and Urban Expansion: Case Study of Southern Ontario, Canada

Farmland is an essential resource for the sustainability and security of human food systems. Preserving an agricultural land base is critical, as it is significantly affected by local, national, and global urbanization. This research introduces a case of farmland preservation in southern Ontario. This area contains some of Canada's most finite and productive soils but has an agricultural system facing enormous pressure from urban expansion. This paper reviews the farmland preservation policy framework within Ontario and provides insight into the role of different levels of government in protecting this critical resource. It also provides data at a regional level that provides the basis to evaluate the success of provincial and local policies. By tracking agricultural land conversion through local Official Plan Amendments (OPAs), this study documents farmland loss across southern Ontario between 2000 and 2017. Implemented and approved by local government and designed with public input, municipal Official Plans outline and describe land-use planning policies on how municipalities should use lands to meet community needs and desires. OPAs are formal and legally binding administrative changes to a municipal Official Plan decided through an open public process, which are required to change local land-use designations that conform with the long-term vision for growth and physical development. These OPAs may include the conversion of farmlands for non-farm uses (or, in contrast, the protection of agricultural lands). Over time, they will reveal the loss of farmlands in each community for different uses (and reflect changing priorities). Using OPAs to track the conversion of prime agricultural land is an innovative and rigorous methodological contribution, given the lack of data documenting long-term changes to the availability of agricultural lands and the impacts of urbanization on farmland conversion. Measuring farmland loss with this approach can be transferred and applied to contexts where municipalities are the entities responsible for agricultural land-use planning, outside of Ontario and beyond. Data from 36 counties/regions shows that the provincial policies and local planning framework have worked in tandem to affect the agricultural land base in southern Ontario significantly. In Central Ontario, the most urbanized area of Canada, the Province's Greenbelt Plan has significantly reduced the rates of farmland loss since 2005, while the Growth Plan and other policies contributed to enhanced municipal control over agricultural land conversion. Specifically, the Inner Ring municipalities have played increasingly active roles in agricultural land protection with both planning approaches and local initiatives. Outer Ring municipalities have seen increasing urbanization pressure. Data on farmland loss for non-agricultural use showed large-scale municipal-led urban boundary expansions and small-scale individual applications on policy changes. In Western Ontario, over the past two decades, there has been no obvious upward or downward trend of farmland loss. Most of the farmland conversion cases in this region were small-scale applications to create small lots on existing agricultural land to allow non-agricultural uses such as commercial, recreational, residential, and agricultural-related facilities. Since 2000, Southeastern Ontario, which has the smallest provincial share of prime agricultural land, has experienced limited farmland loss, consisting primarily of small-scale, individual applications on land-use re-designations (partially reflecting reduced acreages of prime agricultural land). The provincial policy impact on farmland preservation is not as evident in this region. The findings and methodology of this study contribute to the groundwork on farmland availability and land-use planning policy development and research by providing a baseline enumeration of farmland availability and the effect of farmland protection policies at provincial and municipal levels within Ontario's land use planning regime.

Farmland Zoning Integrating Agricultural Multi-Functional Supply, Demand and Relationships: A Case Study of the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area, China

Land-use zoning provides an effective tool for designing and implementing differentiated farmland-protection policies. Despite the exponential increase in research on farmland zoning in recent years, little research has comprehensively explored the supply, demand and relationships of the diverse functions of farmland. In this study, multi-sourced datasets and diverse methods, along with GIS, were combined to spatially evaluate the supply, demand and relationship patterns among the production, ecological and landscape-cultural functions of the farmland of Hangzhou City in China, to construct farmland zoning. The results indicate that high production supply was mostly concentrated in flat plains, whereas highly ecological farmland was frequently observed in mountains. Both urban and rural areas had the capacity to provide aesthetics and recreation. Regarding demand, high values were mainly observed near the downtown area. Additionally, supply-and-demand matching (SDM) and multi-functional coupling and coordination degree (MCCD) were evaluated. Among the four basic zones acquired by SDM analysis, two zones dominated by more than one function were further divided into four sub-regions, according to the MCCD values. Ultimately, six farmland-use zones were determined. By considering the supply, demand and relationships of multiple functions, this farmland-zoning program offers new insights into differentiated farmland protection.

Influence of farmland marginalization in mountainous and hilly areas on land use changes at the county level

Agricultural works alter earth's surface at the largest scale among human-driven activities. Previous studies have focused more on the reclamation of natural land, however, farmland marginalization (FM), emerging as an important mean of land use changes in mountainous and hilly areas (MHAs) has always been overlooked in the background of production efficiency improvement along with urbanization and population migration. This paper examined the characteristics of the spatial-temporal distribution and conversion of marginalized farmland in the MHAs of China at county level (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) from 1990 to 2020, regarding farmland in MHAs converted into non-built-up land as FM. The results showed that: (1) The total area of marginalized farmland in the MHAs was 1.03 × 106 km2. The counties with larger area of marginalized farmland were concentrated around the Hu Line, and those with higher ratio were distributed in southern mountainous areas. (2) The area of marginalized farmland in each stage exhibited a fluctuating trend from 1990 to 2020. Forests and grasslands were prioritized as the desirable types in land conversion, and had prominent spatial agglomeration. (3) The influence of FM in MHAs on land use changes at county level demonstrated significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity, with wide range and low intensity from 1990 to 2000 and 2015 to 2020, and narrow range and high intensity from 2000 to 2015, and the counties with high intensity were distributed in the Loess Plateau and Sichuan–Chongqing hilly region. (4) The slope of marginalized farmland exhibited a prominent rule of spatial distribution, but an insignificant temporal trend under the influence of governmental policies. The larger the slope was, the higher the degree of marginalization was, but not necessarily earlier it occurred. The results can provide a reference for the formulation and implementation of farmland protection policies.

Influencing factors of farmers' adoption of pro-environmental agricultural technologies in China: Meta-analysis

As one of the main focuses of agricultural development research, changes in agricultural technology are a dynamic reflection of the economic environment. This paper uses the Meta-analysis method to conduct a comprehensive analysis of 77 empirical studies to reveal the influence factors, sources of heterogeneity, and influence effects of farmers on the adoption behavior of pro-environmental agricultural technology over time. The results show the following: (1) Influencing factors of farmer's pro-environmental agricultural technology adoption behavior are not completely homogeneous. Among the factors, age, farming population, family income, farm income ratio, number of plots, and land transfer have a regulating effect. Most of the observed heterogeneity relates to the research areas, funding levels and models used. (2) Age, off-farm income ratio, and land fragmentation have a significantly negative impact on farmers' adoption of pro-environmental agricultural technologies. We find no impact on household size, farming population, and village cadres. Farm income ratio, farmland protection policy awareness, land transfer, and government subsidies have significantly positive effects. (3) Over time, only land transfer has a significantly positive impact on the adoption of pro-environmental agricultural technologies by farmers, and the impact has gradually increased. The farming population, technical understanding, and number of plots have no significant impact, but their effects have weakened to varying degrees. Therefore, policymakers and other stakeholders need to consider geographical differences and farming systems, the technology needs of different farmers and affordable costs, in addition to focusing on common variables, when designing policies to encourage the adoption of agricultural technologies in China. Meanwhile, improve the development level of the land rental market, strengthen publicity, training, and subsidies, and increase farmers' information awareness.

MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% of the overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays a critical role in soil and water conservation; however, its suitability is subject to climate change. For this study, the appropriate distribution area of C. lanceolata was analyzed using the MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed that (1) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the mean diurnal range (bio2) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of C. lanceolata; (2) the currently suitable areas of C. lanceolata were primarily distributed along the southern coastal areas of China, of which 55% were moderately so, while only 18% were highly suitable; (3) the projected suitable area of C. lanceolata would likely expand based on the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs spanning 2041–2060. The increased area estimated for the future ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 million km2, where the total suitable area of C. lanceolata attained a maximum value of 2.50 million km2 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a lowest value of 2.39 million km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) in combination with land use and farmland protection policies of China, it is estimated that more than 60% of suitable land area could be utilized for C. lanceolata planting from 2041–2060 under different SSP scenarios. Although climate change is having an increasing influence on species distribution, the deleterious impacts of anthropogenic activities cannot be ignored. In the future, further attention should be paid to the investigation of species distribution under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities.

Spatial Distribution of Soil Nutrients in Farmland in a Hilly Region of the Pearl River Delta in China Based on Geostatistics and the Inverse Distance Weighting Method

Soil nutrients are essential factors that reflect farmland quality. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium are essential elements for plants, while silicon is considered a “quasi-essential” element. This study investigated the spatial distribution of plant nutrients in soil in a hilly region of the Pearl River Delta in China. A total of 201 soil samples were collected from farmland topsoil (0–20 cm) for the analysis of total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (AP), available potassium (AK), and available silicon (ASi). The coefficients of variation ranged from 47.88% to 76.91%. The NSRs of TN, AP, AK, and ASi were 0.15, 0. 07, 0.12, and 0.13, respectively. The NSRs varied from 0.02 to 0.20. All variables exhibited weak spatial dependence (R2 < 0.5), except for TN (R2 = 0.701). After comparing the prediction accuracy of the different methods, we used the inverse distance weighting method to analyze the spatial distribution of plant nutrients in soil. The uniform spatial distribution of AK, TN overall showed a trend of increasing from northeast to southwest, and the overall spatial distribution of AP and ASi showed that the northeast was higher than the southwest. This study provides support for the delimitation of basic farmland protection areas, the formulation of land use spatial planning, and the formulation of accurate farmland protection policies.