Agricultural Adaptation Research Articles

Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique

Abstract. Coastal flooding and sea level rise (SLR) will affect farmers in coastal areas, as increasing salinity levels will reduce crop yields, leading to a loss of net annual income for farming communities. In response, farmers can take various actions. To assess such responses under SLR, we applied an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the adaptation and migration decisions of farmers in coastal Mozambique. The ABM is coupled with a salinization module to simulate the relationship between soil salinity and SLR. The decision rules in the model (DYNAMO-M) are based on the economic theory of subjective expected utility. This theory posits that households can maximize their welfare by deciding whether to (a) stay and face losses from salinization and flooding, (b) stay and adapt (e.g. switching to salt-tolerant crops and enhancing physical resilience such as elevating houses), or (c) migrate to safer inland areas. The results show that coastal farmers in Mozambique face total losses of up to USD 12.5 million yr−1 from salt intrusion and up to USD 1200 million yr−1 from flooding of buildings (RCP8.5 in the year 2080). Sorghum farmers may experience little damage from salt intrusion, while rice farmers may experience losses of up to USD 4000 yr−1. We show that medium-sized farmers (1–5 ha) are most at risk. This is because their farm size means that adaptation costs are substantial, while their incomes are too low to cover these costs. The number of households adapting varies between different districts (15 %–21 %), with salt adaptation being the most common, as costs are lowest. Despite adaptation measures, about 13 %–20 % of the total 350 000 farmers in coastal flood zones will migrate to safer areas under different settings of adaptive behaviour and different climatic and socio-economic scenarios.

Projecting impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields using LASSO regression

Extreme weather events are recognized as major drivers of crop yield losses, which threaten food security and farmers’ incomes. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather under climate change, it is crucial to quantify the related future yield damages of important crops to inform prospective climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we present a statistical modeling approach to project the changes in crop yields under climate change for eight majorly cultivated field crops in Germany, estimating the impacts of nine types of extreme weather events. To select the most relevant predictors, we apply the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to district-level yield data.The LASSO models select, on average, 62% of the features, which align with well-known biophysical impacts on crops, suggesting that different extremes at various growth stages are relevant for yield prediction. We project on average 2.5-times more severe impacts on summer crops than on winter crops. Under RCP8.5, crop yields experience a mean change from -2.53% to -8.63% in the far future (2069-98) for summer crops and from -0.80% to -2.88% for winter crops, without accounting for CO2 fertilization effects. Heat impacts are identified as the primary driver of yield losses across all crops for 2069-98, while shifting precipitation patterns exacerbate winter and spring waterlogging, and summer and fall drought.Our findings underscore the utility of LASSO regression in identifying relevant drivers for projecting changes in crop yields across multiple crops, crucial for guiding agricultural adaptation. While the present analysis can identify empirical relationships, replicating these findings in biophysical models could provide new insights into the underlying processes.

Enhancing Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Agricultural Waste Management: Evidences to Strengthen India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change

Agricultural waste management is a significant challenge in the context of climate change and environmental sustainability. Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) has fostered effective resource management culturally over the years among farmers. However, there is a lack of research on how traditional ecological knowledge based practices can contribute towards climate action policies with respect to resource management. In this context, the current qualitative study was undertaken to assess the potential of indigenous/ traditional agricultural waste management practices in promoting resource sustainability and climate resilience, thereby analysing their ability to enhance the efficacy of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in India. The research was carried out in three states of India, namely Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. A total of eleven farmers were selected through purposive random sampling and interviewed in-depth using semi-structured questionnaires, out of which the responses of nine farmers were included in the final data, after screening. Proper qualitative analysis of the data using thematic analysis method revealed that the farmers commonly preferred and adopted in-situ, location-specific traditional practices for agricultural waste management, thus ensuring better resource optimisation and sustainability. Traditional practices like the use of paddy straw as manure, vermicompost, traditional cisterns, Jeevamirtham, and Panchagavya have strengthened the commitment of TEK-based practices towards sustainability. The findings emphasized the integration of modern and traditional practices of agricultural waste management, combined with community-based initiatives, to better achieve the objectives of NAPCC. The insights suggested that promotion of traditional practices of agricultural waste management requires better incentives for farmers, more community based interventions by the government, and participatory decision-making with multiple stakeholders. Climate action can be enhanced by creation of traditional knowledge networks, online database, formulation of innovative hybrid models for agricultural waste management and promotion of community efforts to collectively enhance climate change adaptation in agriculture under the ageis of NAPCC. Traditional Ecological Knowledge should be rightfully incorporated into NAPCC to promote sustainability, strengthen climate resilience, thereby fostering a stronger policy framework.

A Bibliometric Analysis of Global Research on Climate Change and Agriculture from 1985 to 2023

With increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the interaction between climate change and agriculture is receiving widespread attention as part of food security and sustainable human development. However, a comprehensive summary of knowledge in the field of climate change and agriculture from a scientometric perspective is still lacking. Here, we selected 25,872 papers related to climate change and agriculture from the Web of Science Core Collection database for the period 1985 to 2023 and used VOSviewer software to reveal the research status and trends. The main results were as follows: (1) the number of papers in this field showed a rapidly increasing trend after 2007, with a clear interdisciplinary characteristic; (2) The United States was the most influential country in this field with 6819 papers and 363,109 citations. China had the second highest number of papers (3722 papers), but the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most influential institution with the most papers. On an author level, Pete Smith was the most influential; (3) All keywords were divided into four different research topics, such as the impact of climate change on agriculture, climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture, and crop growth in response to climate change. Among them, some keywords related to climate change adaptation were the most recent topics of interest in this field. These findings provide effective scientific references for relevant scientists and practitioners to better conduct future theoretical and practical research on climate change and agriculture.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-OPTIMIZED FARMING METHODS ON INCREASING COTTON YIELDS

Cotton is one of the main types of raw materials in the textile industry. Cotton yield is directly affected by the climatic conditions of the growing region. In case of favorable climatic conditions, cotton has a high productivity potential. The main factors that play a leading role in this process include temperature stability, humidity level, soil fertility, and the presence of pests. To successfully grow cotton, it is necessary to take all these factors into account and develop adaptive strategies, including the use of modern agronomic methods and technologies that will help optimize the production process in a changing climate. The introduction of climate-smart agricultural practices can have a long-term impact on cotton yield. Taken together, this implies the use of more climate-resistant varieties and new irrigation technologies. The paper analyzes the impact of climate-smart agricultural practices, and identifies and formulates the prerequisites for increasing cotton yield. The introduction of these methods will facilitate the adaptation of farms to changing climate conditions, which will be reflected in increased productivity and sustainability of agriculture in the long term.

Part-Time Farming, Agricultural Socialized Services, and Organic Fertilizer Use: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation

The adoption of organic fertilizers is essential for advancing China’s green agricultural transformation, ensuring food security, and supporting agricultural adaptations. However, several challenges hinder its widespread use in rural areas. This study examines how part-time farming and agricultural service provision influences organic fertilizer use, employing fixed and random effects models on data from 523 households in Shaanxi Province, one of China’s main apple-producing regions. The results reveal: (1) Part-time farming reduces organic fertilizer use by 7.6%, primarily due to labor shortages; (2) Higher non-farm income exacerbates this decline, particularly for Type II part-time farmers; and (3) Mechanized fertilization services help mitigate this reduction. These findings offer valuable policy insights for promoting organic fertilizer adoption in the context of shifting rural labor dynamics and highlight the complex interactions between farming practices and labor migration in the broader trajectory of organic fertilizer use. Moreover, this study highlights the role of organic fertilizer use in enhancing food security while also helping to reduce the carbon footprint of the crop sector in China.

Climate change dynamics in Tunisian agriculture: A rigorous examination of impact, adaptation, and resilience

This study systemically examines the numerous impacts of climate change on agriculture in Tunisia. In this study, we establish an empirical and comprehensive methodology to assess the effects of climate changes on Tunisian agriculture by investigating current climatic patterns using crop yields and socioeconomic variables. The study also assesses the types of adaptation strategies agriculture uses in Tunisia and explores their effectiveness in coping with climate-related adversities. We also consider some resilience factors, namely the ecological aspect and economic and social camouflage pursued by the (very) men in Tunisian agriculture. We also extensively discuss the complex interconnected relationship between policy interventions and community-based adaptations, a crucial part of the ongoing debate on climate change adaptation and resilience in agriculture. The findings of this study contribute to this important conversation, particularly for areas facing similar challenges.

Strengthening resilience: the role of institutions in facilitating local agricultural adaptation to the impact of climate change in Tanzania

Building resilience in areas susceptible to climatic hazards is widely recognised as a critical strategy. This article offers valuable insights into the contribution of institutions to supporting smallholder farmers in building resilience against the effects of climate change. Data for this article was collected from Manzase and Haneti villages in Chamwino district in Dodoma region, Tanzania. The study adopted a qualitative approach and deployed key informant interviews and focus group discussions for data collection. The result showed that institutions that operate in the villages under study which include agricultural extension agencies, Non-Governmental organisations, private companies and village governments, have played such roles as providing drought-resistant seeds, disseminating seasonal weather forecast information and supporting the establishment of income diversification activities to farmers. Furthermore, the institution facilitated agroforestry farming through natural tree regeneration and ensured access to crop markets and loans for farm inputs. These roles have contributed to reducing crop loss due to drought and rainfall unreliability, enhanced household income, and allowed households access to food during drought-induced crop failure. The study also revealed that institutional linkages are crucial in comprehensively addressing challenges faced by smallholder farmers, thereby building their livelihood resilience. This paper argues that strong institutional support is essential for farmers to build resilience against climate change.

Industrial water pollution and farmer adaptation: Evidence from rice farming in Jiangsu, China

AbstractThe shift of industrial water pollution from urban to rural areas during industrialization can impact agricultural production and stimulate farmers’ adaptive behavior. As an illustration, this study examines the impact of industrial water pollution from manufacturing firms on rice production in Jiangsu, China. By combining data from the China Rural Fixed Point Survey with the China Environmental Statistics Database, we employ an extended translog production function to distinguish between the effects of industrial water pollution and farmers’ adaptation behaviors. Our results demonstrate that industrial chemical oxygen demand (COD) has a direct biological effect on paddy rice growth, reducing rice yields by 3.76 to 4.17 percent. This detrimental effect is most pronounced within a radius of 5 kg from the village center. Additionally, farmers increase their operating inputs to mitigate the adverse effects of industrial water pollution. These findings underscore the need for stringent environmental regulations and enhanced environmental education in rural areas to promote the sustainable development of both manufacturing industry and agriculture in developing countries.

Building Agricultural Resilience: Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change has a significant impact on India's agriculture, influencing environmental conditions, agricultural techniques, and production. The term "climate-resilient agriculture" refers to technologies, methods, tools, and frameworks aimed at adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change on agricultural production, food security, and livelihoods. Crop productivity and food security are greatly impacted by climate changes, which calls for creative agricultural methods to maintain food supply while reducing environmental damages. These difficulties are made worse by environmental changes and global population expansion, especially in developing countries. Technological advancements, such as geospatial analysis, and eco-friendly farming technologies, play a crucial role in optimizing land use and enhancing food security. Crop variety adaptation and management of seed, water, land, livestock, soil and nutrients, pest management, risk management, and post-harvest management are examples of effective agricultural adaptation strategies. Technological developments like geographic analysis.

Barley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America.

Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is a globally significant cereal crop, widely used in both food production and brewing. However, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially extreme temperature fluctuations, which can severely reduce yields. To address this challenge, a detailed climate zoning study was conducted to assess the suitability of barley production areas across South America, considering both current conditions and future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study utilized historical climate data along with projections from the CMIP6 IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the period 2021-2100. Several indices, such as evapotranspiration, were calculated, and factors like soil composition and topography were integrated into the classification of regions based on their agricultural potential. Critical variables in this assessment included temperature, precipitation, and water or thermal excess. The results showed that 6.59% of South America's territory is currently suitable for barley cultivation without additional irrigation, with these regions concentrated primarily in temperate southern areas. In contrast, 18.62% of the region is already unsuitable due to excessive heat. Projections under future climate scenarios indicate a shrinking of suitable areas, alongside an expansion of unsuitable regions. In the worst-case scenario, only 1.48% of the territory would remain viable for barley farming. These findings emphasize the crop's vulnerability to climate change, underscoring the urgency of developing agricultural adaptation strategies. The predicted contraction in suitable barley cultivation areas demonstrates the profound impact of climate change on agriculture and highlights the need for proactive measures to ensure sustainable barley production in South America.

Superabsorbent hydrogels: A new tool for vineyard water management?

New superabsorbent hydrogels (SH) could be groundbreaking technologies for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change, but knowledge about their physio-chemical traits, their effects on soil hydrology, and their efficacy on tree crop physiology is very limited. In this work, two potassium polyacrylate SH (SH1 and SH2) and an organic material derived SH (SH3) were tested for their water holding capacity and the capability to improve soil hydrology according to the water demands of cultivated grapevine, one of the most relevant rainfed tree crops. All SH absorbed a significant amount of water as compared to their relative weight (from 9.19 g H2O/g polymer of SH3, to 369.64 g H2O/g polymer of SH2) and made it available at water potential (Ψ) levels compatible with grapevine root system uptake. When incorporated to the soil, all SH successfully increased soil field capacity, affecting also wilting point, and increasing maximum plant available water (from +43 % of SH2 to +84 % of SH1). All SH increased stem Ψ of potted vines subjected to a progressive water deficit, as compared to controls (+0.25 MPa at four days from irrigation suspension, +0.2 MPa at eight days from water suspension, when Control vines showed a stem Ψ of −1.63 MPa).Our work demonstrated for the first time the potentialities of three different SH and their positive effects on soil water relations. Both synthetic and organic-derived SH could improve vine water status under limited water supply. While other studies are needed to clarify effects according to different rootstocks and soils, the results pave the way for the integration of SH in vineyard water management.

Diurnal response of ecophysiological parameters in kiwifruit under photoselective pearl net

Background Agricultural adaptation to climate change is crucial, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. Modern agriculture requires innovative strategies to protect crops from extreme weather events. Photoselective pearl net offers promise in mitigating environmental stresses in kiwifruit production, especially in Chile. Objective This study aims to characterize kiwifruit plants’ diurnal ecophysiological responses under photoselective pearl net. Materials The trial was conducted in a commercial kiwifruit orchard in Chile's Colchagua valley, focusing on ‘Hayward’ vines grown under a photoselective pearl net. A completely randomized design with two treatments (uncovered and covered) was employed. Meteorological parameters, canopy spectral reflectance, vegetative growth, and ecophysiological parameters were evaluated. Results Pearl netting reduced photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), leading to increased shoot length and leaf area. Despite the high variability of the diurnal response of the ecophysiological parameters, there were no significant differences in leaf water potential (ψx) and stomatal conductance (gs) between treatments. Conclusion Photoselective pearl net effectively modifies the light environment, enhancing vegetative growth without compromising key physiological functions. These findings suggest that photoselective netting can improve crop management practices and resilience to climatic variability.

Farmer adaptation and maladaptation in the face of extreme weather events

Abstract With the advent of climate change, extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent and intense, posing significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide. Farmers are among the most vulnerable groups, whose livelihoods depend heavily on weather-sensitive crops. In this paper, we assess if farmers adapt or maladapt after being exposed to extreme weather events and whether their perceived well-being determines their decisions. By analysing data about the farming practices and conditions of 970 farmers in Thailand, we examine the actions farmers implement which can be catalogued as adaptation or maladaptation actions. Although our results cannot specify an increase in adaptation or maladaptation actions after experiencing an extreme weather event, we reveal a notable rise in maladaptation with state aid for natural disasters. Similarly, we find that risk tolerance correlates with increased adaptation, while higher patience offsets this effect. JEL classification:

Zied Haj-Amor, Dong-Gill Kim, and Salem Bouri: Sustainable agriculture adaptation strategies to address climate change by 2050

Zied Haj-Amor, Dong-Gill Kim, and Salem Bouri: Sustainable agriculture adaptation strategies to address climate change by 2050

The potential to reduce runoff generation through improving cropping and tillage practices in a sub-humid continental climate

Agricultural sustainability is threatened by both water deficit and water excess, especially at the presence of extreme meteorological events resulting from climate change. However, there has been lack of demonstrations on management options with long-term values for agricultural adaptation to runoff. Using 20 years of monitoring data (1993–2012) for two experimental fields in the Canadian Prairies as a case study, we quantified the effects of rainfall characteristics, crop type and biomass, and tillage on growing-season runoff generation using regression analyses and thereafter scenario comparisons. With growing-season gross rainfall ranging between 183 and 456 ​mm, runoff responses varied between 0 and 59 ​mm. Over the 20-year study period, 70%–74 ​% of the growing-season runoff was generated by rainfall events >100 ​mm. Compared to high-intensity tillage, long-term conservation tillage reduced both overall runoff and runoff in large events likely by improving water infiltration. Under both tillage methods, growing-season runoff significantly increased with increasing rainfall but decreased with increasing biomass (R2 range: 0.40–0.58; p range: 0.0007–0.02). At the event level, the rainfall-runoff relationship followed a piecewise regression model (Cd ​= ​0.82; p ​< ​0.0001; “breakpoint” rainfall event ​= ​105 ​mm), in which runoff increased slowly before reaching the “breakpoint” but rose sharply afterwards. Due to a greater biomass, canola resulted in less runoff than wheat. Scenario analyses showed that increasing crop biomass by 50 ​% under the current average rainfall conditions could reduce runoff by 81–86 ​% in wheat and 100 ​% in canola. The reduction may be attributed to the combined effects of crop on interception, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. In conclusion, although in a sub-humid continental climate like the Canadian Prairies there are generally low amounts of rainfall runoff, this study demonstrates significant runoff in some years, especially following large rainfall events. Runoff generation can be significantly reduced through improving cropping and tillage practices, and such effects on regional water retention should be further assessed by considering the past and future changes in climate and management.

Effectiveness of Options for the Adaptation of Crop Farming to Climate Change in a Country of the European South

This study quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness of three main options for the adaptation of crop farming to climate change (i.e., shift of planting dates, increase/addition of irrigation, and resilient hybrids/cultivars) in Greece, a country in southern Europe. The potential effect of each option on the yields of several crops in all Greek regions is estimated for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 and compared with those under the historical local climate of 1986–2005, by using agronomic and statistical regression models, and data from different climatic simulations and climate change scenarios. Our results reveal that all the adaptation options examined have the potential to significantly reduce crop yield losses occurring under no adaptation, particularly during 2021–2040 when for many regions and crops more than half of the losses can be compensated for. Notably, in some cases during this period, the measures examined resulted in crop yields that are higher than those under the historical climate. However, the effectiveness of the measures diminished significantly in 2041–2060 under very adverse climate change conditions, highlighting the dynamic nature of adaptation. Assessing the effectiveness of combined adaptation options and evaluating additional criteria (e.g., feasibility) represent essential areas for future research.

Maps of agrolandscape and ecological zoning of natural and natural-agricultural ecosystems of the Russian Federation

Agriculture has a large area of coverage and places the greatest burden on land, soil, water and biological resources in many countries of the world. Agricultural lands occupy huge areas in the world (4.8 billion hectares, or 37% of the land) and in Russia (221.9 million hectares, or 13% of the Russian Federation area). The agriculture best adapted to local conditions is the most beneficial one for people and nature. The main direction of agricultural adaptation is agrolandscape-ecological zoning. In order to provide information support for regionally, landscapeand ecologically differentiated agriculture and rational environmental management, an agrolandscape– ecological zoning of natural and natural-agricultural ecosystems was developed for the first time for all 11 natural-economic regions of Russia, namely, Northern, North-Western, Volga–Vyatka, Central, Central Black Earth, Volga, North Caucasus, Ural, West Siberian, East Siberian, and Far Eastern. The zoning was carried out using comparative geographical and agrolandscape-ecological methods, ecological-landscape and agroecological approaches. The contour and information basis for zoning is the map of Soil–Ecological zoning of the Russian Federation from the Faculty of Soil Science of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Maps of other types of zoning, numerous maps and atlases, statistical data, available literary and stock sources, ground-based and remote data were also used. Our sets of zoning materials included: a map, a map legend, 3 databases (land, forage lands, and negative processes), 2 classifications (forage lands, reindeer pastures, if any), articles, monographs, recommendations, and proposals for production. The maps have been compiled on a 1:2,500,000 scale on a modern, highly informative topographic cartographic basis for the map of Russian Federation. The maps show 6 types of boundaries, including 4 types of agrolandscape-ecological ones (taken from the Soil–Ecological Zoning map): 1) zones, 2) mountainous territories, 3) provinces, 4) districts and 2 types of administrative ones (available on the cartographic basis) of: 1) constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and 2) natural-economic regions.

Blockchain in Agro-Industrial Complex

Abstract The article reviews the available projects and programs using digital technologies and the results of their adaptation in agriculture and specifically in the agro-industrial complex. Tokenization makes any production sector attractive and transparent for investment. The blockchain enables an investor to understand and estimate where the money is invested and what the result will be, how large the final profit will be and whether there will be an additional investment income from the agribusiness. Most of the initial efforts in blockchain in agribusiness are trackable achievements. The authors point out that it is possible to create an efficient supply chain that provides full product serviceability and improves the transactions efficiency by using modern digital technologies. It is about improving margins by reducing bureaucracy and supporting continuity of business problem-solving with blockchain. In doing so, blockchain provides all stakeholders with a common source of reliable information for the agro-industrial and logistics chain.

Adaptation of rice farmers to aging in Thailand

Abstract As one of the fastest-aging countries globally, Thailand faces unique challenges in its agricultural landscape due to the accelerated aging of its farming population. As rice is the most important crop, it is essential to understand the perceptions of farmers regarding the effects of aging on rice farming and how they adapt to aging. This research examined the adjustments that rice farmers had made in their practices over the past 5 years to cope with this demographic shift. The study utilized survey data collected from 300 rice farmers across two prominent rice-producing provinces in Thailand. The findings revealed that 32% of the surveyed rice farmers had adapted to the challenges posed by aging. The top two adaptive strategies allowed descendants to be more involved in rice farming activities and utilization of labor-saving machinery. To analyze the factors influencing the decision to adapt to aging, a binary probit model was employed. The results indicated that several factors played a positive and significant role in the rice farmers’ decisions. These included the farmer’s age, the size of agricultural land, access to irrigation, land ownership, the farmer’s perception of the impact of aging on rice farming, willingness to learn to use and embrace innovative technology for planting and harvesting, and a reduced number of farming activities performed through custom hiring services. Among these factors, irrigation, land ownership, and the farmer’s perception of the aging impact were found to have a strong influence on the farmer’s adaptation.