Far-field Tsunami Research Articles

Modeling the 2022 Tonga Eruption Tsunami Recorded on Ocean Bottom Pressure and Tide Gauges Around the Pacific

AbstractTsunamis generated by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption on January 15, 2022 were recorded on ocean bottom pressure and tide gauges around the Pacific Ocean, earlier than the expected arrival times calculated by tsunami propagation speed. Atmospheric waves from the eruption were also recorded globally with propagation speeds of ~ 310 m/s (Lamb wave) and 200–250 m/s (Pekeris wave). Previous studies have suggested that these propagating atmospheric waves caused at least the initial part of the observed tsunami. We simulated the tsunamis generated by the propagation of the Lamb and Pekeris waves by adding concentric atmospheric pressure changes. The concentric sources are parameterized by their propagation speeds, initial atmospheric wave amplitudes that decay with the distance, and a rise time. For the Lamb wave, inversions of the observed tsunami waveforms at 14 U.S. and nine New Zealand DART stations indicate the start of the positive rise at 4:16 UTC, the peak amplitude of 383 hPa, and the propagation speed of 310 m/s, assuming a rise time of 10 min. The later phases of the observed tsunami waveforms can be better reproduced by adding another propagating concentric wave (Pekeris wave) with a negative amplitude (− 50 hPa) and propagation speeds of 200–250 m/s. The DART records around the Pacific indicate that the Pekeris wave speed is faster toward the northwest and slightly slower toward the northeast. The synthetic waveforms roughly reproduced the far-field tsunami waveforms recorded at tide gauge stations, including the later phases, suggesting that the large amplitude in the later phase may be due to the coupling of the Pekeris wave and the tsunami, as well as resonance around tide gauge stations.

Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean

Abstract. The Maldives face the threat of tsunamis from a multitude of sources. However, the limited availability of critical data, such as bathymetry (a recurrent problem for many island nations), has meant that the impact of these threats has not been studied at an island scale. Conducting studies of tsunami propagation at the island scale but across multiple atolls is also a challenging task due to the large domain and high resolution required for modelling. Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the nearshore island scales across the atolls. The results indicate that the bathymetry of the atolls, which are characterized by very steep boundaries offshore, is extremely efficient in absorbing and redirecting incoming tsunami waves. Results also highlight the importance that local effects have in modulating tsunami amplitude nearshore, including the location of the atoll in question, the location of a given island within the atoll, and the distance of that island to the reef, as well as a variety of other factors. We also find that the refraction and diffraction of tsunami waves within individual atolls contribute to the maximum tsunami amplitude patterns observed across the islands in the atolls. The findings from this study contribute to a better understanding of tsunamis across complex atoll systems and will help decision and policy makers in the Maldives assess the potential impact of tsunamis across individual islands. An online tool is provided which presents users with a simple interface, allowing the wider community to browse the simulation results presented here and assess the potential impact of tsunamis at the local scale.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TSUNAMI IMPACT FROM THE 1/15/22 ERUPTION OF THE HUNGA TONGA - HUNGA HA’APAI VOLCANO

Tsunamis from volcanic ‘explosive’ eruptions are rare, with the last catastrophic event being Krakatau in 1883 (Verbeek, 1885), during which, tsunamis were generated in the far-field by pressure shock-waves and in the nearfield of the volcano, in the Sunda Straits, by several potential geological mechanisms including pyroclastic flows, ash column, and/or caldera collapse. On 1/22/55, at about 4:15 UTC, a one in 1,000 year eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’a-pai Volcano (HTHHV), that had started on12/20/21, reached its paroxysm with a series of large underwater explosions, releasing enormous energy (4-18 Mt of TNT), and ejecting a large ash plume 58 km into the stratosphere. We simulate both the near- and far-field tsunami generation from the eruption, but in this paper we focus on analyzing and validating the near-field impact against field data.

Sea-Level Rise Effects on Changing Hazard Exposure to Far-Field Tsunamis in a Volcanic Pacific Island

Coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change is recognised as a major global threat which is expected to impact more than a quarter of all people currently residing in Pacific Island countries. While most research in the last decade has focused on understanding the dynamics and impacts of future coastal flooding from extreme sea levels, the effects of relative sea level rise (RSLR) on exacerbating tsunami hazards are not well understood. Far-field or distant sourced tsunamis tend to have relatively lower impacts in Pacific Island states compared with locally sourced events, but there is limited understanding of how the impact of far-field tsunamis changes over time due to RSLR. Using the hydrodynamics software BG-Flood, we modelled the Tōhoku-oki tsunami from propagation to inundation in Samoa under incremental SLR to examine the effects that RSLR has on changing the exposure of the built environment (e.g., buildings) to a far-field tsunami. Outputs of maximum tsunami inundation and flow depth intensities which incorporate incremental SLR were then combined with digital representations of buildings and depth-damage functions in the RiskScape multi-hazard risk modelling software to assess the changes in building exposure over time. Results suggest that the impacts of Tōhoku-oki-type far-field tsunamis become significant once RSLR reaches 1 m above present levels. Present-day building exposure will increase by approx. 500% with 1 m RSLR by 2080–2130, and approx. 2350% with 2 m RSLR by as early as 2130–2140. These findings provide useful insights for application to tsunami hazard risk assessments under changing sea level conditions in analogous island environments.

Fast and slow intraplate ruptures during the 19 October 2020 magnitude 7.6 Shumagin earthquake

Strong tsunami excitation from slow rupture of shallow subduction zone faults is recognized as a key concern for tsunami hazard assessment. Three months after the 22 July 2020 magnitude 7.8 thrust earthquake struck the plate boundary below the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, a magnitude 7.6 aftershock ruptured with complex intraplate faulting. Despite the smaller size and predominantly strike-slip faulting mechanism inferred from seismic waves for the aftershock, it generated much larger tsunami waves than the mainshock. Here we show through detailed analysis of seismic, geodetic, and tsunami observations of the aftershock that the event implicated unprecedented source complexity, involving weakly tsunamigenic fast rupture of two intraplate faults located below and most likely above the plate boundary, along with induced strongly tsunamigenic slow thrust slip on a third fault near the shelf break likely striking nearly perpendicular to the trench. The thrust slip took over 5 min, giving no clear expression in seismic or geodetic observations while producing the sizeable far-field tsunami.

Diverse tsunamigenesis triggered by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption.

On the evening of 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano1 unleashed a violent underwater eruption, blanketing the surrounding land masses in ash and debris2,3. The eruption generated tsunamis observed around the world. An event of this type last occurred in 1883 during the eruption of Krakatau4, and thus we have the first observations of a tsunami from a large emergent volcanic eruption captured with modern instrumentation. Here we show that the explosive eruption generated waves through multiple mechanisms, including: (1) air–sea coupling with the initial and powerful shock wave radiating out from the explosion in the immediate vicinity of the eruption; (2) collapse of the water cavity created by the underwater explosion; and (3) air–sea coupling with the air-pressure pulse that circled the Earth several times, leading to a global tsunami. In the near field, tsunami impacts are strongly controlled by the water-cavity source whereas the far-field tsunami, which was unusually persistent, can be largely described by the air-pressure pulse mechanism. Catastrophic damage in some harbours in the far field was averted by just tens of centimetres, implying that a modest sea level rise combined with a future, similar event would lead to a step-function increase in impacts on infrastructure. Piecing together the complexity of this event has broad implications for coastal hazards in similar geophysical settings, suggesting a currently neglected source of global tsunamis.

Discriminating between tsunamis and tropical cyclones in the sedimentary record using X-ray tomography

Scrub Island lagoon (Anguilla, Caribbean) provides the opportunity to display both tropical cyclones, near-field and far-field tsunami deposits within the same sediment core. Here, we use X-ray tomography to highlight the sedimentary fabric and link it to processes that occurred during these events. Overall, the tsunami sedimentary fabric remains highly homogenous, and display fabric trends that can be associated with variations in sediment concentration and/or flow strength. The near-field tsunami deposit displays fabric characteristics of intense and highly-concentrated flow, whereas the far-field tsunami fabric is less defined which may illustrate a less intense event. Contrastingly, the sediment fabric of the tropical cyclone (hurricane) deposit is more variable with a succession of different dipping-angles and orientations of the grains that can be interpreted as the record of successive waves, likely infragravity waves. Observed differences in sedimentary fabrics between tsunami and tropical cyclone-related deposits are an encouragement to generalize sediment fabric parameters as criteria to distinguish them in coastal sedimentary archives.

Tsunami Effects on the Coast of Mexico by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Eruption, Tonga.

The massive explosion by the January 15, 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in Tonga triggered a trans-oceanic tsunami generated by coupled ocean and atmospheric shock waves during the explosion. The tsunami reached first the coast of Tonga, and later many coasts around the world. The shock wave went around the globe, causing sea perturbations as far as the Caribbean and the Mediterranean seas. We present the effects of the January 15, 2022 Tonga tsunami on the Mexican Pacific Coast, Gulf of Mexico, and Mexican Caribbean coast, and discuss the underrated hazard caused by great volcanic explosions, and the role of early tsunami warning systems, in particular in Mexico. The shock wave took about 7.5 h to reach the coast of Mexico, located about 9000 km away from the volcano, and the signal lasted several hours, about 133 h (5.13 days). The shock wave was the only cause for sea alterations on the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, while at the Mexican Pacific coast both shock wave and the triggered tsunami by the volcano eruption and collapse affected this coast. The first tsunami waves recorded on the Mexican Pacific coast arrived around 12:35 on January 15, at the Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán tide gauge station. The maximum tsunami height exceeded 2 m at the Ensenada, Baja California, and Manzanillo, Colima, tide gauge stations. Most tsunami warning advisories, with two exceptions, reached communities via social media (Twitter and Facebook), but did not clearly state that people must stay away from the shore. We suggest that, although no casualties were reported in Mexico, tsunami warning advisories of far-field tsunamis and those triggered non-seismic sources, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, should be included and improved to reach coastal communities timely, explaining the associated hazards on the coast.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00024-022-03017-9.

Integrating tsunami simulations in web applications using BROWNI, an open source client-side GPU-powered tsunami simulation library

Tsunami simulation software is a key component of state-of-the-art early warning systems but the inherent complexities in phases of installation, execution, pre and post-processing prevent their use in other areas of risk management such as communication and education. Recent advances in software and computational capacities such as the efficiency of GPU computing and the ubiquity of web browsers bring new opportunities to bridge the gap between expert and non-expert users. Here we present a Javascript library to enable a web browser to facilitate gathering and analyzing data from tsunami simulations, by means of interactive and efficient visualizations. At its core, the library uses WebGL, the browser’s standard 3D graphics API, to run GPU accelerated computations of a tsunami model. A far-field tsunami model is implemented (linear shallow water equations discretized on spherical coordinates), and its implementation is validated against real tsunami observations, and benchmarked with two other tsunami software-packages. Two software platforms that use this library are presented to illustrate the powerful applications that can be developed for risk communication and education. These applications are characterized by their interactivity and fast computations, which enable users to focus on the understanding of the phenomena of tsunami propagation and iterate quickly to assess different scenarios and potential implications to tsunami risk management. Some limitations on this approach are discussed, in aspects such as scalability, performance, multi-threading and batch-processing, that can be relevant for other users. In our experience, the before mentioned benefits very well compensate the discussed limitations for this kind of applications. The library has an open source license, and is meant to be imported without modifying its source code to facilitate the creation of new applications as the ones herein presented.

Re-examination of Slip Distribution of the 2004 Sumatra\u2013Andaman Earthquake (Mw 9.2) by the Inversion of Tsunami Data Using Green\u2019s Functions Corrected for Compressible Seawater Over the Elastic Earth

We re-examined the slip distribution on faults of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman (M 9.1 according to USGS) earthquake by the inversion of tsunami data with phase-corrected Green’s functions applied to linear long waves. The correction accounts for the effects of compressibility of seawater, elasticity of solid earth, and gravitational potential variation associated with the motion of mass to reproduce the delayed arrivals and the reversed phase of the first tsunami waves. We used sea surface height (SSH) data from satellite altimetry (SA) measurements along five tracks, and the tsunami waveforms recorded at tide gauges (TGs) and ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) in and around the Indian Ocean. The inversion results for both data sets for different rupture velocities (Vr) show that the reproducibility of the spatiotemporal SSHs and tsunami waveforms is improved by the phase corrections, although the effects are not so significant within the Indian Ocean. The best slip distribution model from joint inversion of SA, TG and OBPG data with Vr of 1.3 km/s shows the largest slips of 16–25 m off Sumatra Island, large slips of 2–11 m off the Nicobar Islands, and moderate slips of 2–6 m in the Andaman Islands. The inversion results reproduce the far-field tsunami waveforms well at distant stations even more than 13,000–25,000 km from the epicenter. The total source length is about 1400 km and the seismic moment is Mw 9.2, longer and larger than that of our previous estimates based on TG records.

Modeling of the Dec. 22nd 2018 Anak Krakatau volcano lateral collapse and tsunami based on recent field surveys: Comparison with observed tsunami impact

The Dec. 22, 2018 lateral collapse of the Anak Krakatau (AK) volcano in the Sunda Straits of Indonesia discharged volcaniclastic material into the 250 m deep caldera southwest of the volcano and generated a large tsunami, causing runups of up to 85 m in the near-field, and 13.5 m in the far-field, on the nearby coasts of Sumatra and Java. The tsunami caused 437 fatalities, the greatest number from a volcanically-induced tsunami since the catastrophic explosive caldera-forming eruption of Krakatau in 1883 and the sector collapse of Ritter Island in 1888. For the first time in over 100 years, the 2018 AK event provides an opportunity to study a major volcanically-generated tsunami that caused widespread loss of life and significant damage. Here, we present numerical simulations of the collapse and tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal impact, with state-of the-art numerical models, using both a new parametrization of the collapse and a near-field bathymetric dataset based on our 2019 field surveys and satellite images. These subaerial and submarine data sets are used to constrain the geometry and magnitude of the landslide mechanism, which show that the primary landslide scar bisected the AK edifice, cutting behind the central vent and removing 50% of its subaerial volume. The primary landslide volume is estimated to range from 0.175–0.313 km3, based on uncertainties in the shape of the submerged part of the failure plane. This is supported by an independent estimate of the primary landslide deposit volume of 0.214 ± 0.036 km3. Given uncertainties in the failure volume, we define a range of potential failure surfaces that span these values in 4 collapse scenarios of volume ranging from 0.175 to 0.313 km3. These AK collapses are modeled, assuming either a granular or viscous fluid rheology, together with their corresponding tsunami generation and propagation. Observations of a single tsunami, with no subsequent waves, are consistent with our interpretation of landslide failure in a rapid, single phase of movement rather than a more piecemeal process, generating a tsunami which reached nearby coastlines within ~30 min. For both modeled rheologies, the 0.224 km3 collapse (second and preferred scenario) most successfully reproduces the near- and far-field tsunami flow depth and runup observed in all post-event field survey results, tide gauge records, and eyewitness reports to date, suggesting our estimated landslide volume range is appropriate. This event highlights the significant hazard posed by relatively small-scale lateral volcanic collapses, which can occur en-masse, without any precursory signals, and are an efficient and unpredictable tsunami source. Our successful simulations demonstrate that current numerical models can accurately forecast tsunami hazards from these events. In cases such as Anak Krakatau's, the absence of precursory warning signals, together with the short travel time following tsunami initiation present a major challenge for mitigating tsunami coastal impact, stressing the need to develop and install early warning systems for such events.

Analyzing Tsunami Hazard using Numerical Modelling: Study Case Palu, Sulawesi Tengah, Indonesia

The present study aims to assess the Tsunami hazard in Palu due to the future Tsunamigenic event in terms of near-shore and far-field Tsunami runup, inundation height, and Tsunami arrival time along the coast of Palu. A numerical model is developed to simulate propagation and inundation in the study area. Four scenarios are conducted, which consists of the Tsunamigenic earthquake and aerial subsidence as an approach for mimicking hypothetical potential landslide. The outcome from simulation such as inundation height each grid points then calculated with building footprint stored data – derivation data from the terrain model to develop a Tsunami hazard map. Preliminary Tsunami Hazard Map is made to classify the Tsunami hazard level by existing classification added with estimated building impacted and arrival time ashore on each village in Palu City administrative region.

Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes

Historical records of major earthquakes in the northwestern Indian Ocean along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) indicate high potential tsunami hazards for coastal regions of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and western India. There are fast-growing and populous cities and ports that are economically important, such as Chabahar (Iran), Gwadar (Pakistan), Muscat (Oman), and Mumbai (India). In this study, we assess the tsunami hazard of the 1945 MSZ event (fatalities ≈300 people) using stochastic earthquake rupture models of Mw 8.1–8.3 by considering uncertainties related to rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity. To quantify the uncertainty of earthquake source characteristics in tsunami hazard analysis, 1000 stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated via a stochastic source modeling approach. There are main objectives of this study: (1) developing stochastic earthquake slip models for the MSZ, (2) comparing results of the simulation with the existing observations of the 1945 event, and (3) evaluating the effect of uncertain fault geometry and earthquake slip based on simulated near-shore wave profiles. The 1945 Makran earthquake is focused upon by comparing model predictions with existing observations, consisting of far-field tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges in Karachi and Mumbai and coseismic deformation along the Pakistani coast. The results identify the source model that matches the existing observations of the 1945 Makran event best among the stochastic sources. The length, width, mean slip, and maximum slip of the identified source model are 270 km, 130 km, 2.9 m, and 19.3 m, respectively. Moreover, the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami heights along the coastline to the location of a large-slip area is highlighted. The maximum heights of the tsunami and coseismic deformation results at Ormara are in the range of 0.3–7.0 m and −2.7 to 1.1 m, respectively, for the 1000 stochastic source models.

A Review of Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone

The uncertain tsunamigenic potential of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) has made it an interesting natural laboratory for tsunami-related studies. This study aims to review the recent activities on tsunami hazard in the Makran subduction zone with a focus on deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. While almost all studies focused on tsunami hazard from the Makran subduction thrust, other local sources such as splay faults and landslides can be also real threats in the future. Far-field tsunami sources such as Sumatra-Andaman and Java subduction zones, commonly lumped as the Sunda subduction zone, do not seem to pose a serious risk to the Makran coastlines. The tsunamigenic potential of the western segment of the MSZ should not be underestimated considering the new evidence from geological studies and lessons from past tsunamis in the world. An overview of the results of tsunami hazard studies shows that the coastal area between Kereti to Ormara along the shoreline of Iran-Pakistan and the coastal segment between Muscat and Sur along Oman’s shoreline are the most hazardous areas. Uncertainties in studying tsunami hazard for the Makran region are large. We recommend that future studies mainly focus on the role of thick sediments, a better understanding of the plates interface geometry, the source mechanism and history of extreme-wave deposits, the contribution of other local tsunamigenic sources and vulnerability assessment for all coastlines of the whole Makran region.

Slip distribution of the 2005 Nias earthquake (Mw 8.6) inferred from geodetic and far-field tsunami data

SUMMARYWe estimated the slip distribution on the fault of the 2005 Nias earthquake (Mw 8.6) by inversions of local GPS and coastal uplift/subsidence data and tsunami waveform data. The 2005 Nias earthquake occurred approximately three months after the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.1) at the southern extension off Sumatra Island, Indonesia. The tsunami from the 2005 earthquake caused significantly less damage than the 2004 tsunami, yet was recorded at tide gauges and ocean bottom pressure gauges around the Indian Ocean, including the coasts of Africa and Antarctica. The elastic and gravitational coupling between the solid earth and the ocean causes not only a traveltime delay but also the change of waveforms of far-field tsunamis relative to the prediction based on the long-wave theory. We corrected the computed tsunami Green's functions for the elastic and gravitational coupling effect in the tsunami waveform inversion. We found a diffused slip (∼2 m over an area of 400 km × 100 km) at deeper parts (20–54 km) of the fault with a large localized slip (7 m over 100 km × 100 km) slightly south of the epicentre. The large slips at deeper parts of the fault were responsible for the small tsunami generation. Inversion using far-field tsunami data yielded a slip distribution similar to that obtained using local geodetic data alone and that from the joint inversion of local geodetic and far-field tsunami data, which is also similar to slip distributions from previous studies based on local geodetic data. This demonstrates that far-field tsunami waveforms, once corrected for propagation effects, can be used to estimate the slip distribution of large submarine earthquakes leading to results that are similar to those obtained using sparse local geodetic data.

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation. Part II: Tsunami-Induced Currents in the Port of Ensenada, Baja California

The time evolution of the velocity field in and around the Port of Ensenada, induced by large distant tsunamis as produced by Mw 9.3 hypothetical earthquakes around the Pacific Ocean, is analyzed through the numerical modeling of distant tsunamis. The results indicate that tsunami-induced currents are 4–6 knots (~ 2 to 3 m/s) at the harbor entrance and 2–4 knots (~ 1 to 2 m/s) inside and outside the harbor. Low amplitude tsunamis, as well as the reverberance or coda of large distant tsunamis, may produce currents of 2 knots (~ 1 m/s) along the harbor channel induced by the interaction of coastal and harbor seiches. Visual scrutiny of the resulting velocity field at time steps of 1 min, as well as the mathematical concept of residual velocity, reveal transient eddies fed by flood and ebb currents that produce transversal currents by the harbor entrance. Currents induced by large distant tsunamis are practically negligible at depths greater than 120 m (15 km offshore from the harbor).

Sensitivity of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment to Far-Field Earthquake Slip Complexity and Rigidity Depth-Dependence: Case Study of Australia

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) often proceeds by constructing a suite of hypothetical earthquake scenarios, and modelling their tsunamis and occurrence-rates. Both tsunami and occurrence-rate models are affected by the representation of earthquake slip and rigidity, but the overall importance of these factors for far-field PTHA is unclear. We study the sensitivity of an Australia-wide PTHA to six different far-field earthquake scenario representations, including two rigidity models (constant and depth-varying) combined with three slip models: fixed-area-uniform-slip (with rupture area deterministically related to magnitude); variable-area-uniform-slip; and spatially heterogeneous-slip. Earthquake-tsunami scenarios are tested by comparison with DART-buoy tsunami observations, demonstrating biases in some slip models. Scenario occurrence-rates are modelled using Bayesian techniques to account for uncertainties in seismic coupling, maximum-magnitudes and Gutenberg-Richter b-values. The approach maintains reasonable consistency with the historical earthquake record and spatially variable plate convergence rates for all slip/rigidity model combinations, and facilitates partial correction of model-specific biases (identified via DART-buoy testing). The modelled magnitude exceedance-rates are tested by comparison with rates derived from long-term historical and paleoseismic data and alternative moment-conservation techniques, demonstrating the robustness of our approach. The tsunami hazard offshore of Australia is found to be insensitive to the choice of rigidity model, but significantly affected by the choice of slip model. The fixed-area-uniform-slip model produces lower hazard than the other slip models. Bias adjustment of the variable-area-uniform-slip model produces a strong preference for ‘compact’ scenarios, which compensates for a lack of slip heterogeneity. Thus, both heterogeneous-slip and variable-area-uniform-slip models induce similar far-field tsunami hazard.

Far-field tsunami data assimilation for the 2015 Illapel earthquake

SUMMARYThe 2015 Illapel earthquake (Mw 8.3) occurred off central Chile on September 16, and generated a tsunami that propagated across the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami was recorded on tide gauges and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) tsunameters in east Pacific. Near-field and far-field tsunami forecasts were issued based on the estimation of seismic source parameters. In this study, we retroactively evaluate the potentiality of forecasting this tsunami in the far field based solely on tsunami data assimilation from DART tsunameters. Since there are limited number of DART buoys, virtual stations are assumed by interpolation to construct a more complete tsunami wavefront for data assimilation. The comparison between forecasted and observed tsunami waveforms suggests that our method accurately forecasts the tsunami amplitudes and arrival time in the east Pacific. This approach could be a complementary method of current tsunami warning systems based on seismic observations.

Performance-Based Tsunami Engineering for Risk Assessment of Structures Subjected to Multi-Hazards: Tsunami following Earthquake

ABSTRACT Tsunamis are low-probability high-consequence events, usually caused by an earthquake in the ocean and can result in high casualty rates and billions of dollars in damage. Tsunamis can be divided into two main categories: near-field and far-field tsunamis, based on the location of their origin with respect to the site of interest. To perform risk assessment of communities subjected to tsunamis, the current approach would be to use empirical data from historical events, making the data site specific. Recently, researchers have developed approaches to estimate the risk of structures subjected to far-field earthquake generated tsunamis using a simulated tsunami force on a structure numerically. However, for near-field tsunamis, ground motions caused by the earthquake will reach the structure earlier than the tsunami, damaging the structure, which can substantially impair its structural performance in the following tsunami. The multi-hazard case of tsunami following earthquake is discussed herein and a physics-based approach to estimate the risk of structures subjected to them is presented. An illustrative example is presented to elaborate the methodology for a steel building. Successive nonlinear analyses are used to develop fragility functions based on joint earthquake-tsunami intensity measures (spectral acceleration-flow depth-flow velocity). These functions are used in combination with hazard analysis of a specific location to obtain loss estimates. Three different approaches were used for this process and the results showed that the use of the joint three intensity-measure fragilities is essential for the accuracy when estimating damage or structural loss and neglecting their interaction results in substantial errors.

Pohutukawa bio-shield on the coast of New Zealand as a tsunami mitigation strategy

New Zealand is vulnerable to both far-field and near-field tsunamis. The Pohutukawa tree (Metrosideros excelsa), a native tree to New Zealand, is commonly found in the New Zealand coastal environment. This tree has strong roots that grow deep into the ground, as well as have a wide spreading branching system. It is considered that these characteristics would enable the Pohutukawa tree to act effectively as a bio-shield against tsunamis in New Zealand. However, there is no research to show its capability in reducing the hydrodynamic force of a tsunami. Field investigation of the Pohutukawa tree in Maraetai Beach, and the use of a one-dimensional depth-integrated shallow water numerical model, was conducted to assess the capability of a Pohutukawa bio-shield against a tsunami wave. A Pohutukawa bio-shield of 35 m width against a tsunami wave of height of 3.5 m at shoreline with wave period of 20 min reduced the hydrodynamic force of a tsunami directly behind the bio-shield by approximately 21%. This study, therefore, elucidates the capability of a Pohutukawa bio-shield as a tsunami mitigation strategy.