Abstract
The uncertain tsunamigenic potential of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) has made it an interesting natural laboratory for tsunami-related studies. This study aims to review the recent activities on tsunami hazard in the Makran subduction zone with a focus on deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. While almost all studies focused on tsunami hazard from the Makran subduction thrust, other local sources such as splay faults and landslides can be also real threats in the future. Far-field tsunami sources such as Sumatra-Andaman and Java subduction zones, commonly lumped as the Sunda subduction zone, do not seem to pose a serious risk to the Makran coastlines. The tsunamigenic potential of the western segment of the MSZ should not be underestimated considering the new evidence from geological studies and lessons from past tsunamis in the world. An overview of the results of tsunami hazard studies shows that the coastal area between Kereti to Ormara along the shoreline of Iran-Pakistan and the coastal segment between Muscat and Sur along Oman’s shoreline are the most hazardous areas. Uncertainties in studying tsunami hazard for the Makran region are large. We recommend that future studies mainly focus on the role of thick sediments, a better understanding of the plates interface geometry, the source mechanism and history of extreme-wave deposits, the contribution of other local tsunamigenic sources and vulnerability assessment for all coastlines of the whole Makran region.
Highlights
The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is located where the oceanic crust of the Arabian plate is sliding under the Eurasian plate at a rate of ∼20 mm/year [1]
The pattern of offshore seismicity suggests the segmentation of the MSZ into western and eastern parts
It should be noted that the historical records regarding seismicity and tsunamis in the MSZ are very scant
Summary
The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is located where the oceanic crust of the Arabian plate is sliding under the Eurasian plate at a rate of ∼20 mm/year [1]. The future tsunamigenic potential of the Makran subduction zone remains uncertain due to its low and strange offshore seismicity (see Figure 1). Some seismotectonic characteristics of the Makran subduction zone, such as the offshore seismicity, width and dip of the slab, segmentation, partial locking, were frequently debated and questioned. The pattern of offshore seismicity suggests the segmentation of the MSZ into western and eastern parts. There is significant uncertainty about the tsunami hazard along the MSZ with distinct differences in seismicity between the western and eastern segments. According to Rajendran et al [5]: “The various lines of evidence suggest that the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years”. Other kinds of evidence such as GPS measurements and the marine terraces gave rise to speculation that there is a possible locked seismogenic zone in the western Makran [3,7]
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